To mark the occasion of today’s announcement of May 21 as the date of the federal election, I have given my federal election guide a thorough overhaul, which it needed, having not been seriously updated since January. A great many candidates have been announced since then, among the most notable being those Liberal candidates in New South Wales whose positions were not confirmed until Friday, when the High Court definitively quashed a long-running challenge against the manner of their selection. In addition to confirming incumbents including Sussan Ley in Farrer, Alex Hawke in Mitchell and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney – the first two being cabinet ministers – a further nine candidates had been rubber-stamped by a committee consisting of Scott Morrison, Dominic Perrottet and former party president Christine McDiven, including five in seats of actual or potential interest:
• Jenny Ware, a moderate-aligned lawyer who works at Georges River Council, will run against Craig Kelly, now of the United Australia Party, in Hughes. The choice of Ware appeared to throw a bone to the local party membership, who were angered by earlier plans to impose Manly-resident PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore on the electorate. They were nonetheless deprived of the preselection ballot that would otherwise have pitted Ware against state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons, presumably reflecting Perrottet’s determination that there should be no by-election for Gibson’s existing seat.
• Jerry Nockles, Pharmacy Guild executive, navy veteran and former staffer to politicians including Senator Jim Molan, will be the candidate for Eden-Monaro. Dan Jervis-Bardy of The Canberra Times reports a rival candidate, former Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council deputy mayor Mark Schweikert, withdrew his nomination after the cancellation of a rank-and-file ballot, saying he did not wish to be seen to endorse the national executive’s takeover.
• Maria Kovacic, Franchise Council of Australia director and former owner of an ANZ franchise, will face off against Labor’s Andrew Charlton in Parramatta. Another nominee for the preselection was Charles Camenzuli, engineer and brother of Matt Camenzuli, who had pursued the legal action against the takeover of the preselection process.
• Katherine Deves, a lawyer and co-founder of a group that campaigns for strict definitions of biological sex in women’s sport, will seek to recover Warringah from independent Zali Steggall. Deves was given dispensation to run despite not having been a financial party member for the requisite six months, as the party hierarchy cast around for an option better suited to local sentiment than arch-conservative Lincoln Parker.
• Pradeep Pathi, a project manager at Westpac, will run against Labor’s Michelle Rowland in Greenway, where he might find himself buoyed by the results of a new seat poll, on which more below.
Another legal issue worth noting is that the Liberal Democrats have found a loophole in legislation designed in large part to force them to drop the word “Liberal” from their name, and will accordingly contest the election under their existing name. Antony Green relates that the party withdrew its voluntary application to change its name on March 22, compelling the Australian Electoral Commission to lodge a notice to deregister it for falling foul of the new law, initiating a process that will not be complete by the time the existing register of parties is set in stone by the issue of the election writs.
Polling news:
• The News Corp papers yesterday published four seat polls by Redbridge, which were a mixed bag on voting intention, to the extent that the reporting allowed this to be discerned. A poll for Bass had the Liberals on 36% (down 6.3% on the 2019 result) and Labor on 36% (up 1.3%); in Paterson, Labor were on 38% (down 3.1%) and the Coalition were “0.58% higher”, which I think means 33%;; in Greenway, Labor was on 38% (down 7.9%) and Liberal were on 40% (down 0.6%); and in Longman, the Liberal National Party was on 34% (down 4.6%) and Labor were on 33% (down 1.1%). This suggests Labor would knock over a 0.4% margin in Bass but fail to defend its 2.8% margin in Greenway, while falling slightly short against a 3.3% margin in Longman and suffering a survivable swing against their 5.0% margin in Paterson. Results on economic questions seem to be worse for the Coalition than usual, with Labor “neck-and-neck” on economic management, cost of living and interest rates, and no majority support for the notion that the Liberals were “a safe pair of hands in these uncertain times” or that “taxes will always be higher under a Labor government”. The polls sampled “between 800 and 1000” respondents and were “conducted in the past week&8221; – further clarification on both counts will shortly be forthcoming when Redbridge publishes its methodology statement.
• InDaily has published results of a Greens-commissioned uComms poll from across South Australia showing Labor with a lead of 58-42, a swing in their favour of 7.3%. The primary votes were Liberal 33.2%, Labor 39.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 3.6% and One Nation 3.1%, with 5.6% undecided. The results in 2019 were Liberal 40.6% (plus 0.3% for the Nationals), Labor 35.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 4.3% and One Nation (who ran in only one seat) 0.8%. Also featured was a result on Senate voting intention, which was remarkably poor for Nick Xenophon: Liberal 32.2%, Labor 36.1%, Greens 11.6%, Nick Xenophon 5.2%, Rex Patrick 3.0%, One Nation 3.9% and United Australia Party 2.7%, compared with 2019 results of Liberal 37.8%, Labor 30.4%, Greens 10.9%, One Nation 4.9%, United Australia Party 3.0% and Centre Alliance 2.6%. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 1052. InDaily reports the result were at odds with Labor internal polling conducted before Nick Xenophon announced his run, which found 16.3% would vote for him if he did so, along with 30.8% for Labor, 27.7% for Liberal, 8.9% for the Greens and 5.2% for One Nation.
Mr Mysterious @ #1634 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 12:26 pm
If you honestly think the teal has a better chance than the Labor candidate the logical choice would be teal-1 and Labor-2.
further clarification on both counts will shortly be forthcoming when Redbridge publishes its methodology statement.
A: Anything to give the LNP hope, so they can get out of bed in the morning.
Van Badham
@vanbadham
Note: the ABC “Vote Compass” is absolutely deceptive because it doesn’t weight your answers on the likelihood of a party being able to deliver the policies you like.
ie. Greens can promise unicorns & twisties for everyone, but their capacity to deliver them is zero.
Van Badham
@vanbadham
Note: the ABC “Vote Compass” is absolutely deceptive because it doesn’t weight your answers on the likelihood of a party being able to deliver the policies you like.
ie. Greens can promise unicorns & twisties for everyone, but their capacity to deliver them is zero.
___________
Seeing that Labor has won only 1 election outright since 1993 you could mount the same argument about them.
Tony Windsor
@TonyHWindsor
Coalition spokesman Greg Jennett gives his personal views on Independents and the possibility of a hung parliament within minutes of the election being called. The ABC should be better than this.
Upnorth. Great post on previous thread.
I rate 1993 and the Qld election when Can-Do got turfed as my happiest times in politics.
Sceptic @ #NaN Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 12:36 pm
What so ban all from vote compass except Lib and Lab …?
Ridiculous take.
I asked a question re the Redbridge seat polls in the previous thread, but I don’t think it was answered, probably missed in the flurry of activity this morning. I am unable to read the results with my screen reader, so my question is; a feature of Redbridge seat polls so far has been higher numbers for the UAP and PHON than you might expect given national polls, is this a feature of these results also?
nath @ #NaN Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 10:38 am
That would then being arguing that there is no point having elections. Labor are at least in a realistic position to form an alternative Government.
Rex Douglas:
“If you honestly think the teal has a better chance than the Labor candidate the logical choice would be teal-1 and Labor-2.”
Perhaps I misunderstood you, but I feel it needs to be said that there there is no need to vote strategically in Australia. All you need to do is number the candidates starting with the one you would most prefer to win. Presuming Mr. Mysterious is Anti- LNP, as long as he puts them last, or at least below the ALP, there is no need to worry about which other candidate has the best chance to unseat them.
Very dark thread title William
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 12:39 pm
Rex.. I suspect you are taking the pi**.. Van Badham stating the bleeding obvious.. Greens can promise every voter their own Sydney Harbour Bridge… because they will never be in a position to deliver …or influence.. anything.
Chris
That is right but there are times when people need to be strategic and North Sydney is a prime example because while the ALP has a strong candidate in Catherine Renshaw but its less likely she can win the seat than Kylea Tink can because Tink is more likely to be picking up support from the Liberals.
Rex Douglas @ #NaN Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 10:39 am
No Rex. She is saying there are other things that need to considered when deciding who to vote for, so the answer you get from vote compass is indicative of your position, but shouldn’t be considered absolute.
If I put any weight in vote compass, I would throw away my vote to the Greens every election.
max @ Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 12:44 pm
I thought it a reference to Palm Sunday.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 12:47 pm
If I put any weight in vote compass, I would throw away my vote to the Greens every election.
__________
Then you should vote greens and preference Labor. That way you vote for what you actually want and then make the choice out of 2 less than perfect alternatives.
Makes sense to me.
Jiminy Krikkitt / meher baba (previous thread)
To clarify – when I said North Adelaide I meant North Adelaide, not northern Adelaide, vaguely north of Adelaide or anything else.
North Adelaide is 1.38 sqkm – so with 100 Nazis therein it is 60 something Nazis / sqkm
Current North Adelaide population is about 6,000. City of Adelaide population has grown quite a bit recently, so it would have been less than 5,000 at the time of Bob Greenwood’s investigation (probably quite a bit less). At 5,000 population (to be conservative) it’s a 2% Nazi rate.
Both are likely world records: how good is that?
As for MB’s comments:
– bringing in anti-communist populations was indeed a national project (State and Federal), but this was different: known war criminals
– it was indeed the case that public housing (and more generally, housing for shelter, as opposed to wealth creation) retained bi-partisan support for much longer in SA than elsewhere. One reason Mr Marshall lost the SA election was the attempted takeover by the “True Liberals” (who hold to the truth that the only legitimate purpose of real property is wealth expansion by the already wealthy), which crippled the government in a visible way
Griff says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 12:47 pm
max @ Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 12:44 pm
I thought it a reference to Palm Sunday.
——————-
Griff your mind goes to much nicer places than mine:
The Day of the Happy Event”
Pauline Parker’s diary entry on the morning of her mother’s murder, 22 June 1954.
“I am writing a little of this up in the morning before the death. I felt very excited and ‘The night before Christmas ish’ last night. I did not have pleasant dreams though. I am about to rise.”
The Parker-Hulme Murder
Generally there isn’t a need to vote strategically in Australia, however there are circumstances where it would be smart to do so. If you live in a seat where there is a competitive teal and the Labor candidate has little chance it would make sense to vote strategically for the teal to make it more likely that they make the final 2PP count. Labor/Green preferences are likely to much more strongly flow to a teal than the other way around so that would more likely unseat the incumbent. If the teal has little chance or Labor has some prospect of winning then just vote for whoever is your first preference.
I just got opinion polled- I was a bit naughty – said I was leaning towards voting for Labor but not sure about Albo.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #NaN Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 10:47 am
Why would I vote for a Party who has no ability to achieve its aims?
I want to see action started now and only one Party in Australia is in a position and has a desire to do so.
If you live in a seat where there is a teal and the Labor candidate has little chance it would make sense to vote strategically for the teal to make it more likely that they make the final 2PP count.
__________
This is the case here in Mayo. I have been voting for Rebekah Starkie – who, I must say, is widely seen as being a very good representative.
Lynchpin says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 12:39 pm
Upnorth. Great post on previous thread.
I rate 1993 and the Qld election when Can-Do got turfed as my happiest times in politics.
Lynchpin let’s book 21 May 2022 as the next celebration!
BK you dark horse. Hiding among the Labor sad cases.
Saw the first ALP ad and its simple and better than nearly anything used in the 2019 election.
nath
With Jamie Briggs standing against Sharkie what would YOU have done?
Thank you, Max.
It’s called Strategic Voting, nath. Sheesh.
In a sign that he is taking his responsibilities seriously, the Prime Minister has made the 4.6km trip from the Lodge to the Governor General’s residence without once taking two weeks off to sit on a deck chair next to a pool.
Sources say the PM remained focused on the important task of sitting in the back of a chauffeur-driven car for the length of the journey.
“He did well. By about the four-minute mark he was getting a little restless – he asked if he could take a short break or at least have a weekend away. But, full credit to him, he managed to get through it,” one insider said.
Political historians believe it may be the first time Mr Morrison has been in Australia for the entirety of an important national event.
The Shovel.
Upnorth, done!
Are you still residing “up North” in NSW?
I am back here now after a stint in Qld.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FP8lzUEXIAAy-Ks?format=jpg&name=small
Why does he find it so hard to be truthful?
Bludgers, I live in the electorate of Berowra, on Sydney’s North Shore. Very safe Liberal, Labor’s never come within a bull’s roar of winning here since the seat was created in 1969, the closest was in 2007 when Labor got a 2PP vote of 41%.
Labor preselected a young bloke who is apparently quite energetic, probably will be a good first go for him, to see if he can peg back any of the large margin Julian Lesser currently enjoys.
Needless to add you won’t see Morrison or Albo around Hornsby or Pennant Hills or Thornleigh.
Lars Von Trier @ #20 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 12:54 pm
So that later on you can say that the polls are not accurate as there are many posters like you… Gee, such intelligence – nobody would ever see through that would they? You must be a die hard Lib.
Why does he find it so hard to be truthful?
____________
Why does he find it so hard to answer the question asked?
BK says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 1:04 pm
nath
With Jamie Briggs standing against Sharkie what would YOU have done?
____________
No I support you. Makes sense.
But others are not as forgiving as I am.
Confessions @ #31 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:06 pm
It’s always inconvenient for him.
nath @ #24 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:00 pm
Denying your enemy a victory is always a worthwhile activity.
Chill out Tom. Even Labor wont lose from here.
We should set up a discord for election night.
Evan Parsons,
Has Julian Leeser been a good Member?
It’s thanks to voters like BK that Jamie Briggs is no longer in office, and also for seeing off the self-entitled Georgina Downer.
My mother is in Wentworth and has been strategic voting for years now. She is looking forward to voting for Allegra Spender.
BK @ #NaN Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 11:07 am
He is actually being quite open and honest.
Tudge standing aside was just to remove the distraction during the election and if he is reelected, he will be back in the Cabinet.
I’ll add that Albanese don’t excite the hell out of me, I worry about his ability to cut through, especially to what I call “the low engagement” or “low information” voters. Elections aren’t won on Twitter either or on Poll Bludger, both forums would be 90% anti Morrison.
Can Albo do better than Shorten did 3 years ago, can Labor put out a coherent message this time that doesn’t get gobbled up or drowned out by Palmer advertising and the predictable Murdoch pro Morrison stuff? I’ll concede, I have huge doubts about all that.
Albo’s advantage, he’s more authentically Labor than Shorten was, but does that work just in safe Labor seats?
Anyway, my feelings before I’m accused of not being anti Morrison enough, which I certainly am.
Jim Chalmers to me would have been a better choice, someone younger up against Scomo, a shame they couldn’t clone Peter Malinauskas.
max @ Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 12:51 pm
Oh you are dark!
I like this sermon regarding Palm Sunday by Kurt Vonnegut. Quite apt considering the predilections of our current PM. Here is a copy: https://www.dailykos.com/comments/315940/10623450#comment_10623450
Actually more than a few of my favourite words are by Kurt Vonnegut 😉
Saying he would be “a great cultural fit”, Liberal Party MPs have offered a Newcastle pub patron a full time cabinet position, after a video of him mercilessly berating the PM in classic Liberal Party fashion went viral.
High level cabinet members have said that the man “clearly has what it takes to be a Liberal Party MP in 2022” thanks to his “advanced ability to insult the PM as he stands there limp-dicked and speechless.”
“The guy is a natural,” one Liberal minister said. “The way he gave the Prime Minister shit, and he just had to stand there and eat it, you’d think he’d been a Liberal MP his whole life!”
Deputy Minister Joyce was less than enthused about the appointment, saying the man had stolen his lines. “Telling the PM that he ‘better fucking do something’ and that he’s ‘sick of his bullshit’ has been lifted straight from my text messages”.
The PM has a different recollection of the event, telling reporters he had “a lovely chat to a constituent who commended me on the great job I was doing before I offered him a cut and wash.”
The Newcastle man is slated to replace Keith Pitt as the Minister for Resources and Water, who to date hasn’t said anything vaguely negative about the PM.
The Shovel.
Evan Parsons
Thats why the ad campaign is critically important and so far it looks solid.
Evan Parsons says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 1:12 pm
I’ll add that Albanese don’t excite the hell out of me, I worry about his ability to cut through, especially to what I call “the low engagement” or “low information” voters.
__________
I wish Albo would talk more about infrastructure. It’s a key strength of his. I thought they would build their campaign around it. Like Biden did.
And Qld worries me, if Labor can’t pick up 2 or 3 seats from the LNP this time, serious questions have to be asked about the state of the federal party in the Sunshine State.
I suspect Labor will pick up 2 or 3 in WA, maybe 1 or 2 in Victoria, and probably hold the line in NSW(can’t realistically see Morrison winning Dobell and Eden Monaro and Macquarie and Hunter and Patterson). Reid is the best Labor chance of a NSW gain. Here’s hoping Andrew Charlton prevails in Parramatta.
nath @ #47 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:14 pm
Especially in Vic for the Suburban Rail Loop.
C@tmomma – to be fair to him, Julian Lesser is very approachable and is very active in the electorate, especially on the issue of mobile phone coverage and Telstra, which is rather bad around the Berowra end of the electorate. I won’t vote for him of course, but he’s far from the worst of the Liberals in parliament.