To mark the occasion of today’s announcement of May 21 as the date of the federal election, I have given my federal election guide a thorough overhaul, which it needed, having not been seriously updated since January. A great many candidates have been announced since then, among the most notable being those Liberal candidates in New South Wales whose positions were not confirmed until Friday, when the High Court definitively quashed a long-running challenge against the manner of their selection. In addition to confirming incumbents including Sussan Ley in Farrer, Alex Hawke in Mitchell and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney – the first two being cabinet ministers – a further nine candidates had been rubber-stamped by a committee consisting of Scott Morrison, Dominic Perrottet and former party president Christine McDiven, including five in seats of actual or potential interest:
• Jenny Ware, a moderate-aligned lawyer who works at Georges River Council, will run against Craig Kelly, now of the United Australia Party, in Hughes. The choice of Ware appeared to throw a bone to the local party membership, who were angered by earlier plans to impose Manly-resident PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore on the electorate. They were nonetheless deprived of the preselection ballot that would otherwise have pitted Ware against state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons, presumably reflecting Perrottet’s determination that there should be no by-election for Gibson’s existing seat.
• Jerry Nockles, Pharmacy Guild executive, navy veteran and former staffer to politicians including Senator Jim Molan, will be the candidate for Eden-Monaro. Dan Jervis-Bardy of The Canberra Times reports a rival candidate, former Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council deputy mayor Mark Schweikert, withdrew his nomination after the cancellation of a rank-and-file ballot, saying he did not wish to be seen to endorse the national executive’s takeover.
• Maria Kovacic, Franchise Council of Australia director and former owner of an ANZ franchise, will face off against Labor’s Andrew Charlton in Parramatta. Another nominee for the preselection was Charles Camenzuli, engineer and brother of Matt Camenzuli, who had pursued the legal action against the takeover of the preselection process.
• Katherine Deves, a lawyer and co-founder of a group that campaigns for strict definitions of biological sex in women’s sport, will seek to recover Warringah from independent Zali Steggall. Deves was given dispensation to run despite not having been a financial party member for the requisite six months, as the party hierarchy cast around for an option better suited to local sentiment than arch-conservative Lincoln Parker.
• Pradeep Pathi, a project manager at Westpac, will run against Labor’s Michelle Rowland in Greenway, where he might find himself buoyed by the results of a new seat poll, on which more below.
Another legal issue worth noting is that the Liberal Democrats have found a loophole in legislation designed in large part to force them to drop the word “Liberal” from their name, and will accordingly contest the election under their existing name. Antony Green relates that the party withdrew its voluntary application to change its name on March 22, compelling the Australian Electoral Commission to lodge a notice to deregister it for falling foul of the new law, initiating a process that will not be complete by the time the existing register of parties is set in stone by the issue of the election writs.
Polling news:
• The News Corp papers yesterday published four seat polls by Redbridge, which were a mixed bag on voting intention, to the extent that the reporting allowed this to be discerned. A poll for Bass had the Liberals on 36% (down 6.3% on the 2019 result) and Labor on 36% (up 1.3%); in Paterson, Labor were on 38% (down 3.1%) and the Coalition were “0.58% higher”, which I think means 33%;; in Greenway, Labor was on 38% (down 7.9%) and Liberal were on 40% (down 0.6%); and in Longman, the Liberal National Party was on 34% (down 4.6%) and Labor were on 33% (down 1.1%). This suggests Labor would knock over a 0.4% margin in Bass but fail to defend its 2.8% margin in Greenway, while falling slightly short against a 3.3% margin in Longman and suffering a survivable swing against their 5.0% margin in Paterson. Results on economic questions seem to be worse for the Coalition than usual, with Labor “neck-and-neck” on economic management, cost of living and interest rates, and no majority support for the notion that the Liberals were “a safe pair of hands in these uncertain times” or that “taxes will always be higher under a Labor government”. The polls sampled “between 800 and 1000” respondents and were “conducted in the past week&8221; – further clarification on both counts will shortly be forthcoming when Redbridge publishes its methodology statement.
• InDaily has published results of a Greens-commissioned uComms poll from across South Australia showing Labor with a lead of 58-42, a swing in their favour of 7.3%. The primary votes were Liberal 33.2%, Labor 39.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 3.6% and One Nation 3.1%, with 5.6% undecided. The results in 2019 were Liberal 40.6% (plus 0.3% for the Nationals), Labor 35.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 4.3% and One Nation (who ran in only one seat) 0.8%. Also featured was a result on Senate voting intention, which was remarkably poor for Nick Xenophon: Liberal 32.2%, Labor 36.1%, Greens 11.6%, Nick Xenophon 5.2%, Rex Patrick 3.0%, One Nation 3.9% and United Australia Party 2.7%, compared with 2019 results of Liberal 37.8%, Labor 30.4%, Greens 10.9%, One Nation 4.9%, United Australia Party 3.0% and Centre Alliance 2.6%. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 1052. InDaily reports the result were at odds with Labor internal polling conducted before Nick Xenophon announced his run, which found 16.3% would vote for him if he did so, along with 30.8% for Labor, 27.7% for Liberal, 8.9% for the Greens and 5.2% for One Nation.
I don’t know why people keep overlooking Robertson as a Labor gain in NSW.
Evan Parsons
If the ALP only picks up 1 in Victoria then thats the Liberals best result because Liberal insiders are worried they could lose most of their Melbourne based electorates.
Albanese is highly uninspiring but hopefully Morrison is all the inspiration people need to vote Labor.
Sadly Labor suffer very badly when it comes to leadership talent, and desperately need a refresh of their parliamentary ranks.
Nath: Concerning when Albo has to again introduce himself to the electorate and essentially put out his CV in an ad. Do people really care if he’s got an economics degree from Sydney Uni?
It might just be my natural pessimistic nature and what happened in 2019, but I’ve got low expectations for Labor this time, can’t help thinking of a hung parliament as the outcome.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 1:17 pm
Especially in Vic for the Suburban Rail Loop.
_____________
Yes exactly. Connecting the regional towns to metro areas faster.
Port of Melbourne needs to be relocated. New Airport in S.E Melb probably.
@Evan … such worries.
I suppose having low expectations helps you.
I expect a Labor gain of 12-15 seats, and nothing I’ve seen has changed that.
Lynchpin says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 1:05 pm
Upnorth, done!
Are you still residing “up North” in NSW?
I am back here now after a stint in Qld.
No I’m a bit further North now – in Bangkok Thailand.
We have a small team here that hand out at the Embassy. COVID has reduced our ranks though as few comrades returned home as work dried up. Though one of our long standing volunteers, who went back for work, gleefully texted me this morning. He was outside the GG’s Gin Palace holding up a big corflutte of SfM in Hawaii with the caption “Doesn’t Hold a Hose”. Wonder if he will get on the news tonight?
Anyway I will get some Beer Lao for the 21st – I truly hope it’s a celebration. Last time they stayed in the fridge for months.
Evan Parsons @ #49 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:18 pm
He has just seemed to be invisible in parliament since he was elected and I would have thought that being chosen for Berowra that they had bigger plans for him.
Robertson: oh, Dr Gordon Reid looks like a fair bet to win, forgot about him, and Lucy Wicks doesn’t even live in the electorate apparently. Morrison was there the other day, so obviously their private polling on the Central Coast isn’t good.
As for Dobell, the Liberal candidate doesn’t live there either, the heart surgeon guy. I think Emma McBride is quite safe actually, no matter how much pork Morrison throws at the seat.
I can’t for the life of me understand why people think Albo is underwhelming but were willing to throw their panties at Littlefinger. It astounds me.
And he’s ten times better than Fat Bastard.
OK he’s no Keating. But there hasn’t been a Keating since Keating.
Jeepers.
Perhaps the Election theme should be “Crime and Punishment”?
Julian Lesser possibly can’t stand Morrison, I suspect he’d vote for Frydenberg in any leadership contest.
Careful Evan – that sort of talk around here will get you condemned as a concern troll.
Evan Parsons,
Our mail is that Lucy Wicks has kept her true home in your neck of the woods so her children can still attend the ‘right schools’.
The mood in the Liberal party is very different than it was at the last election when most Liberals thought Shorten was beatable but this time the mood is bleak.
The advantage Rudd had in 2007, people knew him from all those appearances with Hockey on Sunrise, ditto for Julia in 2010, people knew her well.
Shorten could never get over his reputation as the man who turned on Rudd in 2010 and later Julia in 2013.
Got 3 ‘Albo for PM’ beer coasters yesterday. 😀
Doctors make good candidates for Labor, recent Bega state byelection in NSW is a good omen for Gordon Reid in Robertson. C@tmomma, no huge surprise about Lucy Wicks, I’d heard from someone who lives in your area that she’s hardly ever in the electorate, you only see her at election time.
Evan Parsons says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 1:27 pm
The advantage Rudd had in 2007, people knew him from all those appearances with Hockey on Sunrise
______________
People thought he was a younger version of Howard.
Not quite so competent, but with that nest of vipers around him he had no chance.
He also reminded people of Harry Potter, which was very popular then.
He also wore an onion on his belt, which was the style at the time.
NSW: I think if Labor can get Sally Sitou, Gordon Reid and Andrew Charlton all elected, that’ll be brilliant, 3 quality candidates, and retain Kristy McBain in Eden Monaro and Fiona Phillips in Gilmore and Pat Conroy in Shortland and Susan Templeman in Macquarie.
Tip for a bolter on election night: Page, especially the vote out of Lismore and other areas that flooded. Kevin Hogan’s 9% margin might go down a fair bit.
That’s better Evan.
If Albo hasn’t learnt from the Andrews 2014 campaign then he’s a fool.
Win on easy to understand social/infrastructure policy (eg. childcare and road/rail improvements).
Q on WB graph..
1 What is the fastest “turn around” in polling history?
2 How much ground was made up in that turn around ?
PB seems to say the trend is your friend.. it would appear SfM is friendless & has been for an awful long time. It’s only his lifetime of self-delusion that enables him to smirk in hope.
Catmomma
“Has Julian Leeser been a good Member?”
I guess he’s the Leeser of two weevils.
Evan Parsons @ #70 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:31 pm
Has McBain done a pref deal with the shooters/loggers …?
Tip for a bolter on election night: Page, especially the vote out of Lismore and other areas that flooded. Kevin Hogan’s 9% margin might go down a fair bit.
It’s interesting to consider this point in the light of the big swings in Queensland seats and what made people jump into the Liberal camp. That is, something that affected them and their family personally. So much so that it knocked Labor about like 9 Pins.
I don’t know how people in the North of NSW will be feeling by May 21 but my guess is still not back to being ‘relaxed and comfortable’.
The only leader I can think of that I have found inspiring for a very long time is Zelenskyy, but that is in extraordinary circumstances.
Otherwise in Australia we have politics that basically discourages inspiring leaders and instead we get told by the folks in certain medias that we shouldn’t expect government to ever doing anything of use, basically we get encouraged to be disempowered.
Scotty is their to try and keep Government as useless as possible, it is just that it became a real problem for him when we had fires, floods, pandemic all relying on a government that actually needs to function.
https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/scott-morrison-pre-election-ad-campaign/?ocid=msedgntp
Lynchpin @ #73 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:35 pm
*groan* 😆
Littlefinger was cunning to leave his name off the VIC HC challenge.
Wonder how he feels about this election? Surely he’d be expecting the offer he can’t refuse post election?
Keating inspired me, and made me question my sexuality. Those Zegna suits.
So we are off and running! I hope this is the beginning of the end of the Scomo government and the end of the beginning of a new ALP era.
If Mali in SA is anything to go by, it will be a welcome change.
I hope invading Ukraine is the of the end of Butcher Putin.
If the polls stay bad for the LNP in the first couple of weeks of the campaign….. will Palmer still funnel the tens of millions into his campaign that he recently promised? Or will he see the writing on the wall and keep some of it in his bank account?
Hi William, do you have the election timetable handy? It’s not on AEC website. Yet.
steve davis @ #77 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:36 pm
Good point:
Scott Morrison then credited the Liberal Government with saving 40,000 people during the pandemic.
“40,000 people are alive in Australia today because of the way we managed the pandemic,” he said.
Quite rich for Morrison to claim this without acknowledging the extraordinary efforts of and the extraordinary pressures on the healthcare system. Particularly the nurses, doctors and other healthcare workers who were on the frontlines saving those tens of thousands of lives.
I mean, obviously this is an ad campaign for the Government. But it certainly is a bold claim to make; especially without referencing the healthcare industry.
Doesn’t mention the gargantuan efforts of the Premiers and Chief Ministers either.
Very strange driving around Boothby this morning. Corflutes everywhere for Labor, quite a few for Greens and Jo Dyer (independent) and zero for Liberals.
nath @ #80 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:38 pm
I thought they made him look like an Italian spiv. Probably because Italian spivs wear them. 😐
I think Palmer might preference the ALP if they come and kiss the ring? Surely government would be worth a fulsome grovel session with Clive?
What chance the ABC has sound problems or has an important documentary on basket-weaving to show as an excuse to cut away from Albanese’s press conference?
Morrison claims he is now fired up for the election campaign , voters need to remain fired up to vote the federal lib/nats out of government
C@t
Yep. Its all about him taking credit for others sacrifices. All he is bothered about is himself.
Zegna socks are cosy
At his NPC lunch, Clive was sayng that he would be more likely to preference the Greens or independents than the Liberal or Labor parties due to the fact they have not been responsible for the national debt. This could be most benefitical in the ACT senate race to Pocock or the Greens against Zed (As an aside, it is terrible luck to be named after the symbol of the Russian invasion of Ukraine… he might want to start using his full name: Zdenko).
Sceptic
They said for the Libs to win in SA a few weeks ago it would be the biggest turnaround in polling history from time election called. They were down about 54-46 so Scotty is in even more trouble.
Scott @ #88 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 1:42 pm
An unfortunate metaphor after the bushfires.
Pictures of Zoe Daniels campaign launch in Goldstein. The punters only vote Indis because they would rather cut their right hand off than vote Labor.
Greg Jennett: The Human Cliché.
Fun fact
The surname Malinauskas is derived from the Lithuanian for raspberry!
Aww ..! 🙂
Compare the photos of the crowd at Zoe Daniel campaign launch and Katie Allen’s launch and its not hard to see why the Liberals mood is bleak.