The expectation that the Prime Minister will call an election no later than Sunday for either May 14 or May 21 was complicated yesterday by the High Court’s decision to hear an application this afternoon seeking to invalidate a Liberal Party federal executive intervention that has determined preselection outcomes in twelve New South Wales seats. Should the court decline to proceed to a full appeal, Scott Morrison’s path will be clear. Otherwise, the early part of a campaign that commenced over the coming days would be complicated by a legal process requiring resolution before the closure of nominations ten days after the issue of the writs. But with May 21 being the last possible date for a normal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate, and an imminent resumption of parliament to be avoided, he may not let that stop him.
The action is being pursued by Matt Camenzuli, a factional conservative whose bid to overturn the intervention was dismissed in the New South Wales Court of Appeal on Tuesday. The intervention empowered a committee consisting of Scott Morrison, Dominic Perrottet and former party president Christine McDiven to determine preselections including those of two cabinet ministers who would otherwise have faced challenges: Environment Minister Sussan Ley in Farrer and Immigration Minister Alex Hawke in Mitchell, both allies of Morrison. It also spared factional moderate back-bencher Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, while further installing new candidates in Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Hughes, Warringah, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, McMahon and Newcastle. For his efforts, Camenzuli was expelled from the party on Wednesday. The Age/Herald reports that lawyers for Scott Morrison argued in the High Court yesterday that Camenzuli’s newly acquired status of non-party member meant he did not have standing to pursue his appeal.
A parallel wrangle on the other side of the fence was resolved last week when the a takeover of Labor’s Victorian preselection process by the national executive was upheld by the High Court, dismissing a request for an appeal against an earlier finding by the Victorian Court of Appeal. Among other things, this process has confirmed the selection of Jana Stewart to succeed the late Kimberley Kitching in the Senate and Linda White to take the other position at the top of the party’s Victorian ticket at the expense of veteran incumbent Kim Carr. The process was imposed in response to the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking scandal and has been chased through the courts since by unions broadly associated with Bill Shorten on the Right and Kim Carr and the Left, who were excluded from a power-sharing arrangement in the Victorian branch and have duly done poorly out of the preselections that have ensued.
While head office interventions have been upheld by court rulings in both New South Wales and Victoria, Michael Bradley of Marque Lawyers noted in Crikey earlier this week that courts in the two states were sharply diverged on the important question of the justiciability of political parties’ internal affairs. Notwithstanding precedent going back to 1934 that parties are merely unincorporated associations whose internal affairs are purely “domestic”, the Victorian Court of Appeal found the matters had been changed by the modern Electoral Act’s requirement that parties must register and have written constitutions. However, the New South Wales Court of Appeal was expressly of the view that its Victorian counterpart had erred, and that these facts did not convert political parties into legal entities. Bradley’s conclusion: “We must hope that the NSW case goes to the High Court so it can resolve the issue of principle definitively.”
Polling news:
• An Utting Research poll for The West Australian found Celia Hammond, Liberal member for the blue-ribbon Perth seat of Curtin, was under serious pressure from independent challenger Kate Chaney, whom she led by just 51-49 after preferences. The poll credited Hammond with 42% of the primary vote (down from 54.0% on the AEC’s redistribution-adjusted result from 2019) and Chaney with 24%, with Labor on 20% (up from 18.6%), the Greens on 9% (down from 15.3%) and the United Australia Party on 2% (up from 1.3%). The poll was an automated phone poll conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 718.
• The Canberra Times reports two polls conducted for the Climate 200 (for which I am conducting work ahead of the federal election – note the disclosure notice in the sidebar) show Liberal Senator Zed Seselja well short of the 33.3% quota he will need to be assured of re-election in the Australian Capital Territory. Redbridge had Labor on 32.7%, Liberal on 22.7%, the Greens on 12.8%, independent David Pocock on 9.9%, independent Kim Rubenstein on 5.8%, the United Australia Party on 1.6% and others on 3.7%, with 10.8% undecided. Community Engagement was similar except that the United Australia Party appeared to be boosted by the absence of an “others” option: Labor 30.9%, Liberal 21.5%, Greens 13.0%, Pocock 11.7%, Rubenstein 5.3% and UAP 6.0%, with 11.5% undecided. With sufficiently strong flows of preferences between non-Liberal candidates, such numbers would put Seselja under pressure from Pocock or Tjanara Goreng Goreng of the Greens. The Redbridge poll was a live interview phone poll conducted on March 24 from a sample of 708; the Community Engagement poll was an automated phone poll conducted March 23 to 25 from a sample of 1331.
• The Financial Review reports a uComms poll for independent candidate Sophie Scamps’ campaign has her at 23.9% of the primary vote in Mackellar, with Liberal incumbent Jason Falinski on 35.2% (down from 53.0% in 2019) and Labor on 18.0% (up from 16.9%). Out of an unspecified undecided component, 28% said they were leaning to Falinski and 25% to Scamps. The poll also found Scott Morrison at 40% approval and 52% disapproval. Based on this incomplete information, the results seem to imply a lead of around 55-45 to Scamps if preferences flow as they did in nearby Warringah and Wentworth when independents squared off against Liberals in 2019. The automated phone poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 833.
• Shortly after similar polls showing Labor ahead in Boothby and Sturt in South Australia, a uComms poll for the Australia Institute finds Labor leading 53-47 in the Liberal-held Tasmanian seat of Braddon, albeit that it was conducted two to three weeks ago. Combining results with the initial voting intention question and a forced response follow-up for the 3.9% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 35.9%, Labor 34.0%, One Nation 7.3%, Jacqui Lambie Network 7.9%, Greens 5.5%, and independents and others 6.7%. The automated phone poll was conducted March 17 to 21 from a sample of 829.
‘C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 9:08 am
Boerwar @ #81 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 8:58 am
poroti says:
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 8:53 am
Victoria at 8:46 am
From the human rights committee. Truly fmd and omg is that Saudi Arabia is the chair of that committee.
———————————-
Yep. Completely destroys the cred of that committee. It has long had state members of various stripes who have had shocking human rights records.
It has nothing to do with who is on the HR Committee. A 2/3 vote of voting members of the UN that have voted and not abstained is what is needed to remove someone from the HR Committee. And what today’s vote has shown is not that the UN and the HR Committee is useless but that it is finally finding its spine. But pooh pooh it all if you like. Too easy.’
===========================================
Well, the committee was totally compromised before the Russian issue came up. So kicking Russia off the committee while leaving the committee chair by a notorious abuser of human rights is massively hypocritical.
The aged care facility I am associated with yesterday had its first Covid case with a resident. We have gone to extraordinary measures to keep it out, but the weakest link – residents going out with their families – has been exploited by the virus.
The largely unfunded costs associated with the effort over two years are significant, but we do have very happy residents whose care is appreciated by them and their families.
It’s a hard gig.
But very satisfying.
Among many other tasks for Labor in office, appointing a new GG would not hurt either. This is incredibly inappropriate for an office supposed to be neutral.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/governor-general-lobbied-scott-morrison-leadership-program/100975582
BK
You are truly a Gem!!!
:
C@tmomma at 9:08 am
The vote ‘for’ was 93 . The absentions and no votes totalled 82 . Those numbers don’t look like much spine has been found.
C@t
Has the rain eased up now?
Ven
Re Morrison punching bag.
Agree entirely, I mean please, he’s a marketing man and therefore the architect of his own demise ……. and mostly by his own side. Coorey needs a course in professionalism. His reporting is becoming a joke. And this from a dedicated AFR reader.
Poroti:
“The greatest thing that can happen to the state of Queensland and the nation of Australia would be if and when we get rid of the media. Then we would live in peace and tranquility – but no one would know anything!.”
Joh Bjelke-Petersen
Victoria :
There have been another four COVID-19 deaths.
There are 335 cases in hospital, with 12 of those in intensive care and three requiring ventilation.
There were 11,192 new cases today.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
NSW :
The state has recorded eight more COVID-19 deaths.
There are 1,435 cases in hospital with 44 of those in intensive care.
There were 20,396 new cases announced today.
zoomster @ #61 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 8:35 am
That’s a rather strange thing to say on a site based on interpreting polls. Maybe Cat’s vision is impaired by rose coloured glasses.
‘BK says:
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 9:17 am
The aged care facility I am associated with yesterday had its first Covid case with a resident. We have gone to extraordinary measures to keep it out, but the weakest link – residents going out with their families – has been exploited by the virus.
The largely unfunded costs associated with the effort over two years are significant, but we do have very happy residents whose care is appreciated by them and their families.
It’s a hard gig.
But very satisfying.’
———————–
Good on you, BK.
It’s Time @ #111 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 9:19 am
It was snark.
Sir Joh on land rights:
Land rights is a communist plot to set up land bases that could be used for subversive activities by other countries as well as for guerrilla training centres for other countries.
Well, the committee was totally compromised before the Russian issue came up. So kicking Russia off the committee while leaving the committee chair by a notorious abuser of human rights is massively hypocritical.
It’s too easy to be casually judgemental as you are. I prefer to see the good in the decision rather than carp about other things extraneous to the fact that Russia was kicked off the HR Committee fairly quickly, as far as UN decision-making is concerned.
Again by Coorey
“Those still swinging haymakers at the Prime Minister are so blinded by their anger and outrage at his hamfisted intervention in the preselection process that winning the election is barely a secondary concern.”
Hamfisted intervention? He’s the bloody architect and therefore is entirely deserving of the opprobrium. He is almost single-handedly destroying his own party from within, what else does he expect?
Someone should compile The Great Book of Queensland Stupidity. It would sell well in the rest of Australia.
Griff @ #73 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 8:49 am
My thoughts exactly. I’ve met Andrew a few times and he is pretty genuine bloke. He’s also a good local rep, even now that he’s a minister, he still gets out and about in his electorate. Very approachable. And that’s coming from an ALP supporter.
Griff @ #73 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 8:49 am
My thoughts exactly. I’ve met Andrew a few times and he is pretty genuine bloke. He’s also a good local rep, even now that he’s a minister, he still gets out and about in his electorate. Very approachable. And that’s coming from an ALP supporter.
Victoria @ #107 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 9:19 am
Kind of. You think it has stopped. But then it comes back. 🙁
C@t
Fingers crossed.
poroti @ #106 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 9:19 am
Without even a War Crimes Tribunal and its conclusions, which is sop for the UN, it was actually quite stunning.
Victoria @ #121 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 9:26 am
I said to my son today, well, we always wanted a backyard pool, and now we’ve got one! 😆
nath at 9:19 am
Rupert’s worked damned hard ever since to prove Joh wrong and that you can have ‘media’ and people still don’t know anything.
Thank you for the reminders of Joh. I’d truly forgotten how ‘amazing’ he was.
C@t
This weather event has been a doozy that is for sure.
More dribble from Coorey
“ Palaszczuk left the shake-down duties to acting Premier Cameron Dick. He so effectively played the “Morrison hates Queensland” card with a demand for extra flood funding that the Prime Minster, after standing defiant on Wednesday, came apart like a cheap suit a day later, under pressure from his own MPs in Queensland and motivated by a desire for clean air.”
Ok, so what is it, Morrison was just wrong on Wednesday or he was just being purely political on Thursday by entirely changing his stance? Coorey can’t have it both ways.
‘C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 9:23 am
Well, the committee was totally compromised before the Russian issue came up. So kicking Russia off the committee while leaving the committee chair by a notorious abuser of human rights is massively hypocritical.
It’s too easy to be casually judgemental as you are. I prefer to see the good in the decision rather than carp about other things extraneous to the fact that Russia was kicked off the HR Committee fairly quickly, as far as UN decision-making is concerned.’
———————————————–
‘Casual judgement?’ I am not sure why you are an apologist for these sorts of states:
The Committee has had such wonderful state members as Ghaddafi’s Libya and Bainimaram’s Fiji which turned Indian Fijians into second class humans. Saudi Arabia, the current chair, is notorious for state sanctioned murder, exporting extremist terrorismm and for its hideous treatment of gays and women.
Thanks B ‘Dawnmeister’ K!
May I assume that your putting the article about the US Supreme Court appointment last at least implies that the 47 (Republican, I assume) Senators who voted against are your collective nomination for ‘Arseholes of the Wee’?
C@tmomma @ #123 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 9:28 am
I have an inground pool. No swimming, I have to use it as a dam at the moment.
Coorey has been on the drip. He is doing the best he can for the dripfeeder but Coorey knows that he is going to enter personal drought country by the end of May. He’s like Morrison. Past his use-by date.
poroti @ #124 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 9:29 am
Joh did some good things. Like scuttling Ratty’s 1987 election campaign.
Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
France, Atlas Politico poll:
Presidential run-off election
Le Pen (RN-ID): 50.5%
Macron (EC-RE): 49.5%
Macron (EC-RE): 54%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 46%
…
Fieldwork: 4-6 April 2022
Sample size: N/A
Snappy Tom
That award understates my current contempt for the once respectable Republican Party.
Thanks for the Dawn Patrol, BK.
My impression is that even the natural supporters of the LNP are tired of Captain Announcables who never actually delivers anything. The BCA, the IPA, people like Corbett all lining up for a kick. In many cases we should be glad he’s not delivering what they want – of course, he’s not been doing it because he knows it will be unpopular and he doesn’t have the capital to get away with it.
Years of do little government because they saw what happened to Howard and Abbott when they got too ideological on policy.
The likes of the IPA probably think it’s best after years of Turnbull and Morrison if the ALP gets in, does some things they can get their scare campaign hooks into, and the Libs win in 2025 with more of a margin and with a leader like Dutton. Even if Morrison wins again somehow, it would be a razor thin margin at best and no reason to expect anything but more of the same for the next 3 years anyway.
OK, if the poll in Mackeller is being dismissed here as a rogue one and inaccurate, I presume everyone here thinks Zali Steggell in the neighbouring electorate of Warringah will be reelected?
I agree, seat by seat polling should be treated with scepticism some times, but nevertheless Jason Falinski at least going to preferences in 2022 would be rather interesting in itself.
sprocket_ @ #29 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 7:38 am
I agree that the covid pandemic has been defused as a political issue. It’s only an issue for the less than 10% of the antivaxxer fringe dwellers. And most of them are so information deficient that they can’t distinguish between different levels of government, their respective responsibilities and what election is coming up. Most of them would have voted for the big C or the raving redhead anyway just to give the finger to the majors. But then they don’t have a clue whom to preference against after that. Against Anna’s ALP State government? Against Slomo’s federal government? Against one major party or the other? Against the sitting member, whoever that is? I’m thinking a significant number won’t post past 1. There preference votes will scatter all over the place and end up just being noise in the general trend.
C@t…I didnt realise it was snark. I do value on the ground personal feelings about a seat and I wouldnt disparage anyone for giving a personal input ….I did for my state seat of King on more than 1 occasion
Coorey after all said he needed to keep his family fed, so do all those pro Morrison articles and scoops in the AFR benefit him financially?
The cashless welfare card* a sleeper issue for poverty-stricken rural and regional electorates?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/qld-bundaberg-mayor-jack-dempsey-independent-election/100975588
*A nice little earner for someone or other possibly with some funds finding there way to some place or other.
Evan Parsons @ #135 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 9:37 am
It only needs a 3% swing on Falinski’s primary to go to preferences, so not that unlikely.
”
Whoever wins this election will have to find a way to escape Australia’s ludicrous, arbitrary cap on tax as a percentage of GDP. That’s because government spending will have to rise faster than GDP on defence, aged care, child care, health care, disability care and climate change, explains Alan Kohler who says the secret to happiness is more taxation.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/04/07/tax-more-happiness-alan-kohler/
”
This is a known issue since Howard government days when funds were flowing into coffers due to mining boom. But the Rudd and Gillard governments with a fetish for Budget surplus and fearful of blowback from MSM and opposition allowed the problem to fester. Unfortunately, they also had to deal with GFC consequences.
The less we talk about economic management of Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison governments the better because they not only allowed “arbitrary cap on tax as a percentage of GDP” but also allowed the debt to blow out to 1 Trillion dollars.
I don’t know the background but it won’t stop me defending poroti. the West’s policy toward Russia since the end of the Cold War does, in some part, explain the rise of Putin. The world has a deep but superficial veneer of liberal international relations over a foundation of hegemony and a win/lose game.
On top of that is the stupidity of the End of History where people in the West believed their system of democracy and capitalism was naturally superior and would take on across the world post the Cold War just because it was so damn good. This cookie cutter idea that democracy and capitalism could be imposed everywhere without considering the fundamentals, culture and history of a place was not only arrogant but incredibly destructive to many States.
Some of them took to ultra nationalism and strongmen.
And like most strong men, Putin is good at holding domestic power but has eventually become a disaster for his people. His foreign policies were designed to be disruptive but became belligerent and violent. He has utterly failed in his soft power plays in the region – then utterly failed his people. His domestic policies are just plain violent.
He may have started out wanting good for Russia, but his power has corrupted him to the point he doesn’t see a difference between what is good for him and for his people. My view is that he was a disastrous choice for a post Cold War leader. Yes, Russia needed someone to stand up to hegemony and keep the country together. A disrupter. But someone with more nuance and craft.
The question is, was it always going to be like this? Was a fledgling democracy with Russias history and culture and weapons going to have the institutions and checks and balances to elect good leaders and stop a Putin from taking over full control? And/or did the policies and hegemony of the West make it easier or harder for that decline to happen?
The biggest counter to my argument I can see is the internal shift within the US away from democracy and to authoritarianism. Its checks and balances and institutions are only barely holding the line. I wonder if the people of the US see the veneer and say “make us great again” while the rising powers feels the hegemonic foundations and say “let’s kick against the pr!cks”.
Thoughts?
Socrates – it is not inappropriate for a GG to advocate for charitable projects he or she is patron of, only if there was some partisan issue would a GG be expected to get out of the way.
The article here certainly makes it look like this GG has been suckered by a “charity” that isn’t much of one, but that in itself isn’t sackable.
autocrat @ #131 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 9:34 am
The “good thing” was an unintended consequence. So I don’t know if credit can be given to him for that.
Mackellar looks difficult to call at this stage.
We might find it goes Teal or they fall painfully short but it also could disappear until Green does the call of the board.
One thing the polling seems to be confirming is that Jo Dyer made a mistake contesting Boothby instead of Sturt.
Tom at 8.44am:
This would be a really bad idea. I assume this is aimed at Murdoch, but it wouldn’t really affect his local empire – he has enough stooges to take over any local financial/legal control mandate and yet they would still run Murdoch’s lines magically, coincidentally.
What it would harm would be the various diverse voices that have come to provide a little diversity in our barren media landscape – The Guardian, NYT’s local outfit, CBS owning channel 10 to mention a few.
And the internet/social media domination these days makes this kind of thinking mostly shouting-at-clouds territory.
Howard was 23.9% of GDP as revenue. I think Hawke and Keating were 25.0% in the 80’s.
Spending is something like 27.0% of GDP.
Hard to see Labor getting spending anywhere near 25.0% especially if there is a recession this year. Most likely they will have to impose more limits on NDIS to balance the books and raise tax.
ironic if Labor’s waited 10 years and then is forced to do the fiscal consolidation on its watch.
Shorter SK,
The world is not a binary place and anyone who tries to treat it as such will fail when drawing up their conclusions.
Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
·
4h
France, Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll:
Presidential run-off
Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-1)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+1)
+/- vs. 4-6 April 2022
Fieldwork: 5-7 April 2022
Sample size: 1,716
@Katich: For a discussion of history, it is perfectly reasonable and even hard to dispute that certain decisions and policies of the West were contributing factors in the failure of democracy in post Soviet Russia and the rise of Putin as a strongman leader, just as it is perfectly reasonable to say that in many ways the US’ own bad decisions that created and armed Al Qaeda and wound it up to attack the US.
These are long view historical discussions. Directly relating them as immediate causes of atrocities – whether the invasion of Ukraine or 9/11 – let alone justifications of atrocities is neither appropriate nor accurate but unfortunately there are people who have been doing that who ought to know better.
On that note I was both pleased to see Dave Gilmour of Pink Floyd talking about using his platform to help Ukraine and disappointed to see Roger Waters being exactly that brand of lefty who was sucked into going on Russia Today and blaming the West.