The expectation that the Prime Minister will call an election no later than Sunday for either May 14 or May 21 was complicated yesterday by the High Court’s decision to hear an application this afternoon seeking to invalidate a Liberal Party federal executive intervention that has determined preselection outcomes in twelve New South Wales seats. Should the court decline to proceed to a full appeal, Scott Morrison’s path will be clear. Otherwise, the early part of a campaign that commenced over the coming days would be complicated by a legal process requiring resolution before the closure of nominations ten days after the issue of the writs. But with May 21 being the last possible date for a normal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate, and an imminent resumption of parliament to be avoided, he may not let that stop him.
The action is being pursued by Matt Camenzuli, a factional conservative whose bid to overturn the intervention was dismissed in the New South Wales Court of Appeal on Tuesday. The intervention empowered a committee consisting of Scott Morrison, Dominic Perrottet and former party president Christine McDiven to determine preselections including those of two cabinet ministers who would otherwise have faced challenges: Environment Minister Sussan Ley in Farrer and Immigration Minister Alex Hawke in Mitchell, both allies of Morrison. It also spared factional moderate back-bencher Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, while further installing new candidates in Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Hughes, Warringah, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, McMahon and Newcastle. For his efforts, Camenzuli was expelled from the party on Wednesday. The Age/Herald reports that lawyers for Scott Morrison argued in the High Court yesterday that Camenzuli’s newly acquired status of non-party member meant he did not have standing to pursue his appeal.
A parallel wrangle on the other side of the fence was resolved last week when the a takeover of Labor’s Victorian preselection process by the national executive was upheld by the High Court, dismissing a request for an appeal against an earlier finding by the Victorian Court of Appeal. Among other things, this process has confirmed the selection of Jana Stewart to succeed the late Kimberley Kitching in the Senate and Linda White to take the other position at the top of the party’s Victorian ticket at the expense of veteran incumbent Kim Carr. The process was imposed in response to the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking scandal and has been chased through the courts since by unions broadly associated with Bill Shorten on the Right and Kim Carr and the Left, who were excluded from a power-sharing arrangement in the Victorian branch and have duly done poorly out of the preselections that have ensued.
While head office interventions have been upheld by court rulings in both New South Wales and Victoria, Michael Bradley of Marque Lawyers noted in Crikey earlier this week that courts in the two states were sharply diverged on the important question of the justiciability of political parties’ internal affairs. Notwithstanding precedent going back to 1934 that parties are merely unincorporated associations whose internal affairs are purely “domestic”, the Victorian Court of Appeal found the matters had been changed by the modern Electoral Act’s requirement that parties must register and have written constitutions. However, the New South Wales Court of Appeal was expressly of the view that its Victorian counterpart had erred, and that these facts did not convert political parties into legal entities. Bradley’s conclusion: “We must hope that the NSW case goes to the High Court so it can resolve the issue of principle definitively.”
Polling news:
• An Utting Research poll for The West Australian found Celia Hammond, Liberal member for the blue-ribbon Perth seat of Curtin, was under serious pressure from independent challenger Kate Chaney, whom she led by just 51-49 after preferences. The poll credited Hammond with 42% of the primary vote (down from 54.0% on the AEC’s redistribution-adjusted result from 2019) and Chaney with 24%, with Labor on 20% (up from 18.6%), the Greens on 9% (down from 15.3%) and the United Australia Party on 2% (up from 1.3%). The poll was an automated phone poll conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 718.
• The Canberra Times reports two polls conducted for the Climate 200 (for which I am conducting work ahead of the federal election – note the disclosure notice in the sidebar) show Liberal Senator Zed Seselja well short of the 33.3% quota he will need to be assured of re-election in the Australian Capital Territory. Redbridge had Labor on 32.7%, Liberal on 22.7%, the Greens on 12.8%, independent David Pocock on 9.9%, independent Kim Rubenstein on 5.8%, the United Australia Party on 1.6% and others on 3.7%, with 10.8% undecided. Community Engagement was similar except that the United Australia Party appeared to be boosted by the absence of an “others” option: Labor 30.9%, Liberal 21.5%, Greens 13.0%, Pocock 11.7%, Rubenstein 5.3% and UAP 6.0%, with 11.5% undecided. With sufficiently strong flows of preferences between non-Liberal candidates, such numbers would put Seselja under pressure from Pocock or Tjanara Goreng Goreng of the Greens. The Redbridge poll was a live interview phone poll conducted on March 24 from a sample of 708; the Community Engagement poll was an automated phone poll conducted March 23 to 25 from a sample of 1331.
• The Financial Review reports a uComms poll for independent candidate Sophie Scamps’ campaign has her at 23.9% of the primary vote in Mackellar, with Liberal incumbent Jason Falinski on 35.2% (down from 53.0% in 2019) and Labor on 18.0% (up from 16.9%). Out of an unspecified undecided component, 28% said they were leaning to Falinski and 25% to Scamps. The poll also found Scott Morrison at 40% approval and 52% disapproval. Based on this incomplete information, the results seem to imply a lead of around 55-45 to Scamps if preferences flow as they did in nearby Warringah and Wentworth when independents squared off against Liberals in 2019. The automated phone poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 833.
• Shortly after similar polls showing Labor ahead in Boothby and Sturt in South Australia, a uComms poll for the Australia Institute finds Labor leading 53-47 in the Liberal-held Tasmanian seat of Braddon, albeit that it was conducted two to three weeks ago. Combining results with the initial voting intention question and a forced response follow-up for the 3.9% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 35.9%, Labor 34.0%, One Nation 7.3%, Jacqui Lambie Network 7.9%, Greens 5.5%, and independents and others 6.7%. The automated phone poll was conducted March 17 to 21 from a sample of 829.
”
The extraordinary power of the independent movement, especially the teal-coloured candidates backed by Climate 200, is sapping attention from the Greens, writes David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-struggle-for-attention-as-independents-fight-to-change-the-game-20220407-p5abn6.html
”
I recall Firefox flatly rejecting that proposition. 🙂
Ven @ #48 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 8:15 am
Yes, people should just let Morrison take swings at Albanese and Labor!
”
Josh Gordon explains why he thinks the Andrews government may not be praying for an Albanese win.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/why-the-andrews-government-may-not-be-praying-for-an-albanese-win-20220407-p5abjo.html
”
That is a hit job on Andrews
I despise the anti-semitism being directed at Frydenberg. Note the efforts by splainers to splain away the anti-semitism. Enablers abound.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/checkmate-bob-katter-children-gun-claim/100974960
Ven @ #51 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 8:17 am
Maybe it’s because The Greens veered from the path of being a strictly environment-based party too far into Left Culture Wars areas.
Although seat polls are normally and rightly viewed with a great deal of suspicion and scepticism, when they are all pointing to the same conclusion and are broadly in line with the national polls, and can be explained by the dire position of the government and Morrison in particular, then maybe they can tell us something.
A 23% swing against Falinski is all our Christmas’ coming at once
”
The recent budget has underscored that the Coalition government has abandoned the needy, and the nation’s future. Whether an Australian is hunting for a job or displaced from disaster-wrecked town, they should expect almost nothing from our leaders, writes Lucy Hamilton who refers to Scott Morrison’s constant disingenuous role play as tradesman and labourer.
https://johnmenadue.com/scott-morrisons-constant-disingenuous-role-play-as-tradesman-and-labourer/
”
“Lucy Hamilton who refers to Scott Morrison’s constant disingenuous role play as tradesman and labourer.”
Well he is playing up for his base, the Tradies.
With everyday, more and more “what the ……” irregularities surface to damn the liberals, nationals, combinations of both and affiliated entities such as the federal police, AAT appointments, the IPA and the governor-general’s office, yet thirty something percent of the voting population are are so restricted in their outlook, that Morrison and the LNP government are within a bride or two of maintaining office.
The daunting task of re balancing the bilge at the bottom of the good ship Australia is growing with everyday the failed PMship of Morrison remains.
How did such a lucky country submerge to such level of infamy ?
Yeah, can’t say I’m very shocked by this one:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/07/politics/trump-jan-6-riot-regret/index.html
Labor has a dominant two-party lead in SA ahead of the forthcoming federal election – while attempted comeback kid Nick Xenophon faces a tough battle returning to the senate, according to a new statewide poll.
The uComms data, commissioned by the Greens and conducted from a telephone survey of 1052 residents in SA on Tuesday night, gauged statewide voting intentions in both the House of Representatives and Senate ahead of the federal election, which is set to be called imminently.
The poll found Labor leading the Coalition with more than 39 per cent of the first-preference vote to 33.2 per cent.
But former senator Xenophon, who quit the senate to run a failed state campaign at the 2018 election, is currently languishing on just 5.2 per cent according to the poll – well down on his 2016 high-watermark, at which his NXT party won three senate seats in a double-dissolution election.
On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor led 58 per cent to 42, with 67.3 per cent of people who nominated minor parties or independents saying they would preference the ALP higher than the Liberals.
BeaglieBoy
C@ can see that electorate from her house, so her judgement is far more reliable than any stupid poll…
Updated on 8 April to take into account the latest in a conga line of character assessments of Mr Morrison. In this episode, just a taster of Gideon Rozner giving Morrison both barrels.
Morrison has allegedly or reportedly been called ‘menacing’, ‘controlling’, an ‘autocrat’, a ‘bully’, a ‘fraud’, a ‘complete psycho’, ruthless’, ‘not fit to be prime minister’, ‘a menacing wallpaper’, and a ‘horrible, horrible person’ and ‘he is actively spreading lies,’ by female Liberal colleagues.
He has also been described as ‘lacking a moral compass’ and has been called out for using ‘offensive’ words by Liberal women.
A current female Liberal MLC publicly accuses Morrison of ‘self-serving ruthless bullying’, ‘practiced at bullying’, and ‘he…thinks it is all about him’, ‘totally untrue’ and ‘he made that up.’
Another former Liberal female minister was head of the organisation that sacked him. Why was Morrison sacked? Well, the relevant documents seem to have disappeared. Conjecture around the words ‘lie’ and ‘probity’ and industry complaints about the ‘process’ in relation to an $184 million contract have never been tested. So, all we know for sure is that he was sacked. But for 100% we certain don’t know why. It might even have been an unfair dismissal!
But is all this this some sort of weird Liberal woman thing?
Well, no. Liberal men don’t think much about Morrison either.
Michael Keenan, a former Liberal minister, allegedly called Morrison an ‘absolute arsehole’.
Peter van Onselon, a male Liberal leaner, speaking of Morrison’s response to the Berejilian emails, said, ‘That is an out and out lie.’
What does a former (male) Liberal Prime Minister say? ‘He is a liar. He has lied to me many times. He has a reputation for lying.’
What does the current (male) Deputy Prime Minister say about Morrison? ‘He is a hypocrite and a liar.’
What did Towke, Morrison’s (male) Liberal pre-selection opponent, say: Morrison ‘engaged in racial vilification’.
Well, what about an independent female senator who held face-to-face negotiations with Mr Morrison? Morrison is ‘bullying’ and ‘intimidating’. It is like dealing with ‘a two year old with a temper tantrum.’
Well, what about an independent female MP? She calls Morrison ‘disrespectful’.
Maybe these character assessments are some sort of weird Aussie tall poppy thing?
Here we have the thoughts of Ventner, the editor of the Dominion Post. ‘like a cross between Rasputin and Crocodile Dundee’.
What about other reports from New Zealand? They allege ‘rottweiler’ and they allege ‘arrogance’.
And just to round things off, French President Macron called Morrison a ‘liar’.
Well, what about some independent opinions?
What about that libertarian bastion, the IPA? Gideon Rozner reckons that Morrison lacks principles.
Then there is the ABC fact check’s verdict on Morrison’s claims about CO2 emissions reductions: ‘misleading’.
We must have balance. Balance is only fair.
Current Deputy Liberal Party leader, Freydenberg: ‘He has never lied to me.’ ‘He doesn’t have a reputation for it…’
Current Liberal Minister, Payne doesn’t ‘support’ Mr Turnbull’s accusations.
And finally…
It is only fair to give Morrison a voice, ‘I don’t believe I have told a lie.’
Thanks BK! Lots of articles to get through today!
Asha
Trump continually throws meat to his people and detractors at the same time.
His pronouncements only serve to confirm that law enforcement have him pegged and he knows it.
What is really astonishing about Trump and his supporters. Is that Trump shows the world each and every day who he is and what he has done.
Yet the supporters see a different person.
That is what being brainwashed is all about.
I’m waiting for the day when the spell is broken.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 8:21 am
Maybe it’s because The Greens veered from the path of being a strictly environment-based party too far into Left Culture Wars areas.
________
Like supporting SSM when Labor backed Howard’s 2004 Marriage Act amendments?
Morning all and thanks BK for the excellent roundup.
I agree with you on the unacceptable Qantas delays and lame excuses for both it and Sydney airport delays. It is entirely their own fault and avoidable.
Air travel numbers are still not back to anywhere near their pre covid numbers. The fact is they both sacked a lot of staff and still have not hired enough back.
I have two major wishes fto come out of this election;
1. An ALP majority on both houses.
2. Media laws (enforced) banning overseas ownership including anti media monopoly laws.
I’ve noticed on twitter lots of commentary on friendlyjordies latest expose.
The suggestion is also that friendlyjordies previous exposes toppled the premiership and deputy premiership of NSW
Russia have been suspended from the UN.
BK
Thanks for the links to the John Menadue articles on Defence, and Australia’s miserable failure to improve it under the Liberals. The disconnect between defence policy and what we actually buy is jarring. Defence needs a serious inquiry if Labor takes office.
Corruption has to be a possibility. Lots of defence lobbyists are in Canberra. Albo should do a Hawke and ban all defence lobbyists. Why do we need them if the paid analysts we employ know their stuff? Several ex Libs are among them.
Ven says:
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 8:19 am
”
Josh Gordon explains why he thinks the Andrews government may not be praying for an Albanese win.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/why-the-andrews-government-may-not-be-praying-for-an-albanese-win-20220407-p5abjo.html
”
That is a hit job on Andrews
It’s published in the Age, what do you expect? The Age is really trashing it’s brand.
Thank you for the dawn patrol BK!
A just posted story on ABC suggests that Andrew Gee is getting some poor advice from his campaign manager. Awkward.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/controversial-charts-with-local-mp-andrew-gee/100972394
I wasnt impuning C@ts judgement….merely making an observation on the general trend and direction of the current polling which is all going in one direction. I dont see any way that seats like Mackellar will fall….but the fact we are even talking about seat like that or North Syd, Tangney, Goldstein, Sturt etc etc is remarkable….so I remarked about it.
Political annihilations are rare….but not impossible….think Canada or WA style wipeouts….Morrison deserves such an outcome, tho it almost certainly wont happen
Victoria at 8:46 am
From the human rights committee. Truly fmd and omg is that Saudi Arabia is the chair of that committee.
“1. An ALP majority on both houses.”
Highly unlikely in the Senate. The best they could hope for was only requiring the Greens votes when the Coalition vote against, but even that might be tough. Unlike WA, for instance, only half the Senate is elected at each election, so even if they have a good election this year it will be weighed down by their relatively poor performance in 2019, particularly in Queensland.
Conversely, if the Coalition somehow manage to pull off another win, they will most likely have half the seats in the Senate. This is enough to block things like new inquiries, orders for documents, disallowance motions etc. They’d then only need to rely on One Nation to pass legislation, which, lets face it, would not be tough.
After a bizarre front page yesterday featuring a graphic with dozens of pictures of Albanese’s head, The West Australian follows up today with a graphic of his head photoshopped on an image of Abraham Lincoln in his chair with the headline “Yanks, Albo.” And the subhead “Labor leader talks up US credentials ahead of poll”
That’s pretty much the gist of the story inside. Albo has met Biden and knows a few other senior US Officials.
It’s a reminder that Albanese was deputy prime minister, despite Morrison’s attempts to portray himself as some kind of political babe in the woods.
The fevered brains that thought up the Lincoln connection and produced the graphic will be dismayed that this wondrous front page is not on display in the newsagents.
It’s hidden behind a 12-page wraparound extolling the good work done by the Telethon Foundation in WA.
Makes a change from from Harvey Norman I guess.
Poroti
What should be omg and fmd for you, is that Russia is engaged in genocide of its closest neighbour
The High Court will hear Camenzuli’s application at 4 pm on Friday. This means, I believe, that Morrison’s lawyers failed to convince the HC that Camenzuli lacks standing because he has been expelled from the Liberal Party.
Boerwar
Fancy expelling the plaintiff during proceedings. Lol!
poroti says:
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 8:53 am
Victoria at 8:46 am
From the human rights committee. Truly fmd and omg is that Saudi Arabia is the chair of that committee.
———————————-
Yep. Completely destroys the cred of that committee. It has long had state members of various stripes who have had shocking human rights records.
Vic
It is standard sordid stuff by the most corrupt bunch of incompetents since Federation.
Boerwar
Indeed. They most corrupt and incompetent.
Another example of why s44 needs to be reformed:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/07/section-44-strikes-again-labor-candidate-for-hughes-quits-race-due-to-greek-citizenship-concerns
I don’t think anyone would suggest that Mr Tsambalas, born and raised in Australia, would be a secret sleeper agent for the Greeks.
Another one for the no fucking shame files:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/controversial-charts-with-local-mp-andrew-gee/100972394
Julian Hill MP
@JulianHillMP
·
1h
Rats deserting Morrison.
Tho they miss the point. The problem isn’t that Morrison is “unpopular”. It’s that he is an incompetent liar, and that their presence in Parliament is why he is PM.
Voting them out is the only way to get rid of Morrison. #auspol
Boerwar says:
Friday, April 8, 2022 at 8:59 am
Vic
It is standard sordid stuff by the most corrupt bunch of incompetents since Federation.
________
How quickly people forget Joh’s government.
ltep @ Friday, April 8, 2022 at 8:54 am
The performance of the Teals is the real story next election. A shame they aren’t running hard in the Senate.
Idle speculation: could the election after next turn back time and be the double dissolution we should have had in 2010? Perhaps the worsening economy will be too much of a drag a la GFC.
Victoria at 8:57 am
Try reading what I wrote. You might be able to work out what the omg and fmd was about. I’ll give you a clue ‘KSA’
Ley giving her best comical Ali impression on RN and PK unable or unwilling to cut through it.
zoomster @ #61 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 8:35 am
Droll, zoomster. Not.
I think that’s poroti in the middle.
poroti
I understand the KSA human rights are atrocious.
Russia has jailed Nalvany for another 9 years. For what? This is after having him poisoned. Not forgetting all the journos that Putin and his regime have killed.
Putin has even killed young journos for fun on his birthday.
Where is your outrage about the current situation?
Nath: back then I voted Greens here and there too, not approving of the ALP being in thrall to the SDA and well behind general community sentiment as well as the moral cowardice (well after 2004 but I have said many times that Gillard closing the door on marriage equality at the very start of her PMship instantly cruelled the enthusiasm she desperately needed from ALP supporters and members to get her off to a good start and was her single biggest mistake). Beazley was far too “me too!” with Howard in general and it badly damaged Labor. Latham as leader was the result, a desperate but well meaning attempt to have a leader who’d actually fight Howard.
Also voted Greens at state level back then in disapproval at Bracks and Brumby’s lack of good environment policy.
The Greens had a sliding door moment then of being in the vanguard for social changes which society was accepting but the majors were lagging on, and around the same time to get a climate policy in place with Labor which they could point to Turnbull’s support for even after he was rolled by Abbott. It would have been politically unassailable. They could have continued their march to becoming a real 3rd force in Australian politics.
They blew both by jumping out to the bleeding edge of the left on many social issues and leaving Rudd hanging in the breeze on climate policy and forcing Gillard to adopt a more unpopular policy in exchange for balance of power support – that short term gain didn’t work out, did it? And I’ve never again voted Green.
The Greens have gone backwards from their high water mark under Bob Brown as a result and have capped their vote at not much above 10% nationally. But hey, in exchange for limiting their vote they’ve managed to carve off the most lefty ALP members and a couple of the most progressive State seats in the country, well done.
Boerwar @ #81 Friday, April 8th, 2022 – 8:58 am
It has nothing to do with who is on the HR Committee. A 2/3 vote of voting members of the UN that have voted and not abstained is what is needed to remove someone from the HR Committee. And what today’s vote has shown is not that the UN and the HR Committee is useless but that it is finally finding its spine. But pooh pooh it all if you like. Too easy.
I should add that if Labor has an amazing election this year it will make the Senate for them much more manageable in a second term, if they are re-elected. A party needs two relatively good, or at least ok, elections in a row for the Senate to be in their favour. So for instance after ’07 the Senate was pretty bad for Labor (needing both Xenophon and Fielding, as well as the Greens) to pass anything. After the ’10 election though it was much better, only needing the Greens.
nath at 9:02 am
Yes, forgot about Joh and Russ Hinze and the boys. They were epic in the ‘brazen’ department. One lol I remember was Russ Hinze explaining something as being entirely coincidental. A road out in the bush that went to nowhere in particular had been tar sealed. Russ was incredible lucky as the beautiful upgrading of the road stopped about 5 meters past his letter box 🙂
C@t
I’ve had enough of Putin and Russia apologists. And that goes for the Russian people themselves. They choose to believe it is acceptable to kill and torture,children, women and men. They are complicit.
Interesting day in HC.
Dawson at 9.30am, Vic Forests against a community group at 11.30am and Libs at 4
@ltep: Agreed. The HCA decisions on s44 a few years ago were bloody minded literalism that needlessly overturned the way everyone thought s44 worked for decades after the Cleary case. So now people who were born in Australia to Australian parents and have tried for months to get rid of the second citizenship they didn’t ask for can’t run for Parliament.
Honestly, the White Australia people probably wish they’d got this precedent on s44 decades ago and shut the door on even more people from non Anglo immigrant families getting into Parliament.