The expectation that the Prime Minister will call an election no later than Sunday for either May 14 or May 21 was complicated yesterday by the High Court’s decision to hear an application this afternoon seeking to invalidate a Liberal Party federal executive intervention that has determined preselection outcomes in twelve New South Wales seats. Should the court decline to proceed to a full appeal, Scott Morrison’s path will be clear. Otherwise, the early part of a campaign that commenced over the coming days would be complicated by a legal process requiring resolution before the closure of nominations ten days after the issue of the writs. But with May 21 being the last possible date for a normal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate, and an imminent resumption of parliament to be avoided, he may not let that stop him.
The action is being pursued by Matt Camenzuli, a factional conservative whose bid to overturn the intervention was dismissed in the New South Wales Court of Appeal on Tuesday. The intervention empowered a committee consisting of Scott Morrison, Dominic Perrottet and former party president Christine McDiven to determine preselections including those of two cabinet ministers who would otherwise have faced challenges: Environment Minister Sussan Ley in Farrer and Immigration Minister Alex Hawke in Mitchell, both allies of Morrison. It also spared factional moderate back-bencher Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, while further installing new candidates in Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Hughes, Warringah, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, McMahon and Newcastle. For his efforts, Camenzuli was expelled from the party on Wednesday. The Age/Herald reports that lawyers for Scott Morrison argued in the High Court yesterday that Camenzuli’s newly acquired status of non-party member meant he did not have standing to pursue his appeal.
A parallel wrangle on the other side of the fence was resolved last week when the a takeover of Labor’s Victorian preselection process by the national executive was upheld by the High Court, dismissing a request for an appeal against an earlier finding by the Victorian Court of Appeal. Among other things, this process has confirmed the selection of Jana Stewart to succeed the late Kimberley Kitching in the Senate and Linda White to take the other position at the top of the party’s Victorian ticket at the expense of veteran incumbent Kim Carr. The process was imposed in response to the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking scandal and has been chased through the courts since by unions broadly associated with Bill Shorten on the Right and Kim Carr and the Left, who were excluded from a power-sharing arrangement in the Victorian branch and have duly done poorly out of the preselections that have ensued.
While head office interventions have been upheld by court rulings in both New South Wales and Victoria, Michael Bradley of Marque Lawyers noted in Crikey earlier this week that courts in the two states were sharply diverged on the important question of the justiciability of political parties’ internal affairs. Notwithstanding precedent going back to 1934 that parties are merely unincorporated associations whose internal affairs are purely “domestic”, the Victorian Court of Appeal found the matters had been changed by the modern Electoral Act’s requirement that parties must register and have written constitutions. However, the New South Wales Court of Appeal was expressly of the view that its Victorian counterpart had erred, and that these facts did not convert political parties into legal entities. Bradley’s conclusion: “We must hope that the NSW case goes to the High Court so it can resolve the issue of principle definitively.”
Polling news:
• An Utting Research poll for The West Australian found Celia Hammond, Liberal member for the blue-ribbon Perth seat of Curtin, was under serious pressure from independent challenger Kate Chaney, whom she led by just 51-49 after preferences. The poll credited Hammond with 42% of the primary vote (down from 54.0% on the AEC’s redistribution-adjusted result from 2019) and Chaney with 24%, with Labor on 20% (up from 18.6%), the Greens on 9% (down from 15.3%) and the United Australia Party on 2% (up from 1.3%). The poll was an automated phone poll conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 718.
• The Canberra Times reports two polls conducted for the Climate 200 (for which I am conducting work ahead of the federal election – note the disclosure notice in the sidebar) show Liberal Senator Zed Seselja well short of the 33.3% quota he will need to be assured of re-election in the Australian Capital Territory. Redbridge had Labor on 32.7%, Liberal on 22.7%, the Greens on 12.8%, independent David Pocock on 9.9%, independent Kim Rubenstein on 5.8%, the United Australia Party on 1.6% and others on 3.7%, with 10.8% undecided. Community Engagement was similar except that the United Australia Party appeared to be boosted by the absence of an “others” option: Labor 30.9%, Liberal 21.5%, Greens 13.0%, Pocock 11.7%, Rubenstein 5.3% and UAP 6.0%, with 11.5% undecided. With sufficiently strong flows of preferences between non-Liberal candidates, such numbers would put Seselja under pressure from Pocock or Tjanara Goreng Goreng of the Greens. The Redbridge poll was a live interview phone poll conducted on March 24 from a sample of 708; the Community Engagement poll was an automated phone poll conducted March 23 to 25 from a sample of 1331.
• The Financial Review reports a uComms poll for independent candidate Sophie Scamps’ campaign has her at 23.9% of the primary vote in Mackellar, with Liberal incumbent Jason Falinski on 35.2% (down from 53.0% in 2019) and Labor on 18.0% (up from 16.9%). Out of an unspecified undecided component, 28% said they were leaning to Falinski and 25% to Scamps. The poll also found Scott Morrison at 40% approval and 52% disapproval. Based on this incomplete information, the results seem to imply a lead of around 55-45 to Scamps if preferences flow as they did in nearby Warringah and Wentworth when independents squared off against Liberals in 2019. The automated phone poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 833.
• Shortly after similar polls showing Labor ahead in Boothby and Sturt in South Australia, a uComms poll for the Australia Institute finds Labor leading 53-47 in the Liberal-held Tasmanian seat of Braddon, albeit that it was conducted two to three weeks ago. Combining results with the initial voting intention question and a forced response follow-up for the 3.9% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 35.9%, Labor 34.0%, One Nation 7.3%, Jacqui Lambie Network 7.9%, Greens 5.5%, and independents and others 6.7%. The automated phone poll was conducted March 17 to 21 from a sample of 829.
nath,
Magpies smashed by WCE at home.
Love it!
Boys with toys vs real courage
But wait, there’s more:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/09/defence-blocks-access-to-advice-on-location-choice-for-australias-nuclear-submarines-base
Calling on the GG to resign is missing the point.
5 weeks and we have an election.
There is existing legislation for a FICAC, it can be passed in the first sitting week.
The GG shouldn’t be made to resign. It’s possible that there’s more to this story than has appeared in the press.
But, if it turns out to be corruption, he could be in jail by years end.
I was gobsmacked when Howard started his campaign in 2004(?) with “who do you trust”…..Howard was by then being roundly atatcked as A lying Rodent, Mean and Tricky etc….but it worked…..Maybe if you can attack on your weakness , neutralize it, or even turn it into a strength you may be on a winning stategy. I’m sure they have a bag full of ads about how much better Australia did in the pandemic than other countries which will be repeated ad neuseum till even the most fervent labor PB believes it to be true
ItzaDream @ #925 Saturday, April 9th, 2022 – 6:53 pm
Probably correct. However, over 2 days of posts I would have hoped for a bit more self reflection that what we are seeing now in Ukraine is truly horrific. I get that some people can’t post about Ukraine but, because of them and their stance, I can only say, I have to continue.
Btw did you see this guy playing the public piano in Lviv as the air raid sirens went off?
https://youtu.be/h3eXnhMJBpg
” How are you feeling steve777? Optimistic for Albo ?”
Quietly optimistic but Labor must not underestimate the power of the torrent of smears, half-truths and downright lies that will spew forth from the Dark Side and their media wing in coming weeks. They will need to be ready to effectively counter it while getting their own message through. They weren’t last time.
Tim Wilson would turn tail and run at the sound of a cracker going off.
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 7:12 pm
nath,
Magpies smashed by WCE at home.
Love it!
_____________
Not as much as I’ve enjoyed all those wooden spoons Carlton have collected. What a time to be a Carlton supporter! Hope you loved it.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 7:07 pm
So briefly if I understand your post you are saying 56:44 to Labor for 95 seats off a Labor primary of 33%.
Your numbers dont seem to add up.
The LRP PV is likely to be in the low 30s. Labor’s PV will be in the high 30s or low 40s. The electorate is generally determined to vote against the Reactionary/Liberal Party. The historic Reactionary plurality is disintegrating…going in 4 directions: to ON, the UAP, the Lite and to Labor. Of these, both the Lite and Labor will benefit in terms of vote shares and seats.
In NSW the Liberal party itself is involved in an internecine power struggle. They cannot campaign effectively. In WA they essentially no longer exist. In Victoria and SA they are an isolated, obscure, obsolete and defeated rump. In QLD they should expect to lose 10 seats at least. Labor are in line to record their best result in that State since 1943.
This is not an election about Labor or coal or climate change or defence or the price of petrol. It will be an election about the very fitness of the Liberals to govern at all. These other items are tokens of the abject incompetence and stupidities of the Liberals. They are going to be sent to the knackery.
And this is truly, heartbreakingly beautiful:
https://youtu.be/DDUdK5SYa7w
I’d like some explanation of the Wilson pic.
Nothing in his bio I’ve seen that he was in the army or was or is a reservist and entitled to wear that clothing.
Anybody know?
nath,
So do you reckon that the Pies are top half or bottom dwellers this year?
I think that the view from WA might be much more optimistic than it is from over here. Having a state Labor Government with a thumping majority would help. Also the fact that it hasn’t been raining for two months.
Asha says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 7:10 pm
Bludging:
So, if I’m understanding correctly, your innovative new Not-a-Lib Plurality measure is just a fancy way of expressing the Liberals’ primary vote?
Time was the LRP plurality was in the very high 40s nearly all the time. Those days are long gone. They have squandered their brand almost completely. Wherever possible, they will be defeated. They lack the one thing they most need to win elections: voters who will back them. Of the 48-odd/100 voters they could count on in 1996, only 33-34 remain in the LRP column. The rest have gone. 14/48….30% of the Lib-born have left home. They are prodigal voters, and most will likely never return. They have formed new own parties or attachments or quasi parties, or migrated to Labor.
This election will see the decadent remnants of the LRP blown to tiny electoral bits.
As an addendum…the Liberal primary vote pure and simple, without the Nationals, will likely struggle to exceed 30% in any State in which the Nationals are a force.
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 7:32 pm
nath,
So do you reckon that the Pies are top half or bottom dwellers this year?
_________
Definitely bottom half. Need a couple of more good draft picks.
Sounds like you’ve been on the high quality ganj briefly.
“Also the fact that it hasn’t been raining for two months.”
Actually Steve777, i am looking forward to a bit of rain this weekend. 🙂 But then again, i live on a hill.
Thanks for the clips C@t. I has seen the Chopin in the bombed out flat. Impossible to imagine.
This election will see the decadent remnants of the LRP blown to tiny electoral bits
I would love to see that. It’s happened in WA but I can’t see it happening nationally.
nath,
Bring back Bucks!
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 7:36 pm
Sounds like you’ve been on the high quality ganj briefly.
Don’t smoke. Don’t drink. Don’t do any ‘a that stuff. Am sober from the soles up. Look at the polls. They are saying that voters want to vote for choices other than the LRP. The country has been in campaign mode for months. Non-stop politics. Voters can’t wait for it to end and for the insanity that is rule by Morrison to be over.
They have mostly made up their minds about Morrison and his crackpots.
ItzaDream @ #956 Saturday, April 9th, 2022 – 7:40 pm
Like you say, love of music and that it transcends all. 🙂
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 7:36 pm
Sounds like you’ve been on the high quality ganj briefly.
_____________
I want some!
Again SfM.. pitching to the converted
If your upset about ScoMo’s positive advertorial tonight, how will u all feel once he starts the negative campaign on high rotation?
Given Crosby Textor’s form – they’ll pick a theme on Albo and stick with it. Remember L Plate Learner Latham and the Bill you can’t afford.
That’s all to be expected though – its only going to peel off the soft support from Labor – if the rule of thumb is 2/3 of the lead drops off during the campaign – Labor still wins 51:49 or 515:485
GG, ‘Bring back Bucks!’
Bring back Jock McHale!
Sohar says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 7:59 pm
GG, ‘Bring back Bucks!’
Bring back Jock McHale!
_____________
Bring back Jock McHale, Cardinal Mannix and John Wren, get a case of Irish whiskey and get this thing back together.
nath @ #961 Saturday, April 9th, 2022 – 7:47 pm
You don’t know anyone in Melbourne that’s got some!?!
Lars.
So you reckon the Libs have a Big Bang to scare everyone back to mother Lib?
You Libs are sheep in sheep clothing.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 8:04 pm
You don’t know anyone in Melbourne that’s got some!?!
__________
YEah but Briefly got that primo shit.
Imagine foreseeing Barnaby Joyce as LOTO. Wowee!
I noticed the ring emphasis too. Probably a subliminal message that he’s a happily married, family man. And Albanese isn’t.
Not sure the general assumption that voters will return to voting LNP out of fear of change this election will be the case this election, because there are too many people who assess Morrison to be especially untrustworthy and incompetent. With that sort of reputation set, I don’t see a negative ad campaign being very effective, although no doubt they’ll try it.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 7:54 pm
They are going to try to engineer the re-election of the worst government in Australian history. They should be ashamed of themselves. The Morrison outfit is absolutely unworthy of support. 2/3 Australians at least will withhold that support.
nath @ #968 Saturday, April 9th, 2022 – 8:05 pm
‘Tis true that Durban Poison is available in WA.
It’s not rocket science is it GG. You even said it today.
Labor has never exceeded 53.2% 2PP – and everybody is expecting a scare campaign (maybe even the ALP?)
But Labor is 8 points in front on Newspoll and all things being equal should form government in 5-6 weeks.
This might be useful apparel for Morrison and his ministers:
Whores of Yore@WhoresofYore
Sultan Osman III (1699-1757) of the Ottoman Empire had such a dislike for the company of women he wore iron shoes around his palace so the women in his harem would hear him coming & leave.
What are you saying sohar – Sultan Osman was homosexual? Who knew?
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 8:09 pm
It’s not rocket science is it GG. You even said it today.
Labor has never exceeded 53.2% 2PP – and everybody is expecting a scare campaign (maybe even the ALP?)
But Labor is 8 points in front on Newspoll and all things being equal should form government in 5-6 weeks.
The 2PP measures are not in themselves properly indicative of the destruction of the LRP plurality. A substantial part of the Lib-Homeland vote is going to go to alt-Lib candidates…to the Lite, to UAP and ON. These votes will very often not return to the Dark Blue Past. Nor will they become Labor prefs but will endure as Not-Lib votes. Anywhere in the Lib-homelands where the Lite is not present we should expect to see very strong swings to Labor. But where the Lite are contesting, votes will coalesce for them. Voters will act so as to eject the LRP from seats wherever they can. Voters will expel the LRP by whatever methods present themselves. Of course, the Dark Blue will hold in some seats. But they should not expect to win. They should expect to be deposed by the voters.
The last time the Reactionaries were so badly led as they now are, so badly divided and dysfunctional, so corrupt and distant from the needs of the people was during WW2. In 1943 they suffered their worst ever defeat. They are in line for a reprise.
Nath:
There’s a person in my branch who was insistent for a while that if Morrison got rolled mid-term, Barnaby would be the most likely candidate for his replacement. My multiple attempts to explain why that wouldn’t be the case weren’t very successful.
Briefly what will the Dark Blue do about the Green Lizard King in the red polka dot boxer shorts? Scary!
Further to boerwar’s post.
I wonder if Hurley will again lobby Morrison tomorrow? This is how
evangelical Christians do business – transactional. And remember it was Hurley who was instrumental in awarding Australia’s highest honour to Maggie Court, though he of course accepted the advice of the Council for the Order of Australia. But he does have the final say.
Governors-General should not be appointed from the ranks of the retired military brass. It goes without saying that a judge or a senior academic, for instance, fulfilling the role would never solicit public monies for a ‘leadership program that was later allocated more than $18m.’ It’s absolutely scandalous and if Hurley has any decency, he’d hand in his resignation to Albanese on May, 22.
SMH nominating 20 seats to watch 11 Libs including Wentworth.
“C@tmommasays:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 8:06 pm
I noticed the ring emphasis too. Probably a subliminal message that he’s a happily married, family man. And Albanese isn’t.”…
“While the 2016 Census doesn’t provide the median marriage age, it does show that marriage is becoming less common. In 2016, 35.0% of all Australians 15 years and over had never been married”
On the other hand, the divorce rate is 11.7% …
So, a campaign focusing on just “marriage and happy family” has already lost 46.7% of the voters. Is Scomo confident that his campaign will attract to the Coalition every single one of the remaining 53.3%?….
Question: What’s better for Scomo, to keep the ring on or to take it off?… Please send your replies directly to the Liberal federal election campaign team.
I thought that picture of Tim Wilson in front of the vehicle was a fake. What a prat.
Some git on ABC news saying come the election there’ll be more scrutiny “on Labor”. Differentiating Labor from every other party.
Morrison’s Ring Shot means something but it’s lost on me. I dislike every bit of him.
Bludging:
Yes, TPP is an inherently flawed measure in polling. Swings arn’t uniform, you never know exactly how the preferences will flow, and there will normally be at least a few seats that are traditional Labor/Coalition contests (likely quite a few this time around.)
But as long as we are aware of its shortcomings, there’s still a lot that TPP figures can tell us about election outcomes, certainly more than we can discern from just contrasting the Liberal primary vote with the primaries of all the other parties and candidates. There’s only one thing that the latter tells us: the Liberal primary vote.
Lars,
Sexuality has nothing to do misogamy. I lived in Oman where the Sultan was not exactly hetro, and he made sure that every woman in the country was given 20 hectares of land so that they had some independence from men in their traditional society, and twice as many women were in higher education than men.
Maybe Alpo its a subliminal message to the same sex marriage demographic? I reckon Scomo would do a back crack and sack wax on camera if he thought there were votes in it?
BSA Bob:
Just be glad they were filming his hand.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 8:21 pm
Briefly what will the Dark Blue do about the Green Lizard King in the red polka dot boxer shorts? Scary!
The Green and the Blue will elope. They will make public the clandestine relationship they’ve been enjoying all these years.