Election timing and more seat polls

Lingering legal issues continue to make life complicated for Scott Morrison, plus new and new-ish seat polls for Curtin, Mackellar, Braddon and the ACT Senate race.

The expectation that the Prime Minister will call an election no later than Sunday for either May 14 or May 21 was complicated yesterday by the High Court’s decision to hear an application this afternoon seeking to invalidate a Liberal Party federal executive intervention that has determined preselection outcomes in twelve New South Wales seats. Should the court decline to proceed to a full appeal, Scott Morrison’s path will be clear. Otherwise, the early part of a campaign that commenced over the coming days would be complicated by a legal process requiring resolution before the closure of nominations ten days after the issue of the writs. But with May 21 being the last possible date for a normal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate, and an imminent resumption of parliament to be avoided, he may not let that stop him.

The action is being pursued by Matt Camenzuli, a factional conservative whose bid to overturn the intervention was dismissed in the New South Wales Court of Appeal on Tuesday. The intervention empowered a committee consisting of Scott Morrison, Dominic Perrottet and former party president Christine McDiven to determine preselections including those of two cabinet ministers who would otherwise have faced challenges: Environment Minister Sussan Ley in Farrer and Immigration Minister Alex Hawke in Mitchell, both allies of Morrison. It also spared factional moderate back-bencher Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, while further installing new candidates in Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Hughes, Warringah, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, McMahon and Newcastle. For his efforts, Camenzuli was expelled from the party on Wednesday. The Age/Herald reports that lawyers for Scott Morrison argued in the High Court yesterday that Camenzuli’s newly acquired status of non-party member meant he did not have standing to pursue his appeal.

A parallel wrangle on the other side of the fence was resolved last week when the a takeover of Labor’s Victorian preselection process by the national executive was upheld by the High Court, dismissing a request for an appeal against an earlier finding by the Victorian Court of Appeal. Among other things, this process has confirmed the selection of Jana Stewart to succeed the late Kimberley Kitching in the Senate and Linda White to take the other position at the top of the party’s Victorian ticket at the expense of veteran incumbent Kim Carr. The process was imposed in response to the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking scandal and has been chased through the courts since by unions broadly associated with Bill Shorten on the Right and Kim Carr and the Left, who were excluded from a power-sharing arrangement in the Victorian branch and have duly done poorly out of the preselections that have ensued.

While head office interventions have been upheld by court rulings in both New South Wales and Victoria, Michael Bradley of Marque Lawyers noted in Crikey earlier this week that courts in the two states were sharply diverged on the important question of the justiciability of political parties’ internal affairs. Notwithstanding precedent going back to 1934 that parties are merely unincorporated associations whose internal affairs are purely “domestic”, the Victorian Court of Appeal found the matters had been changed by the modern Electoral Act’s requirement that parties must register and have written constitutions. However, the New South Wales Court of Appeal was expressly of the view that its Victorian counterpart had erred, and that these facts did not convert political parties into legal entities. Bradley’s conclusion: “We must hope that the NSW case goes to the High Court so it can resolve the issue of principle definitively.”

Polling news:

• An Utting Research poll for The West Australian found Celia Hammond, Liberal member for the blue-ribbon Perth seat of Curtin, was under serious pressure from independent challenger Kate Chaney, whom she led by just 51-49 after preferences. The poll credited Hammond with 42% of the primary vote (down from 54.0% on the AEC’s redistribution-adjusted result from 2019) and Chaney with 24%, with Labor on 20% (up from 18.6%), the Greens on 9% (down from 15.3%) and the United Australia Party on 2% (up from 1.3%). The poll was an automated phone poll conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 718.

• The Canberra Times reports two polls conducted for the Climate 200 (for which I am conducting work ahead of the federal election – note the disclosure notice in the sidebar) show Liberal Senator Zed Seselja well short of the 33.3% quota he will need to be assured of re-election in the Australian Capital Territory. Redbridge had Labor on 32.7%, Liberal on 22.7%, the Greens on 12.8%, independent David Pocock on 9.9%, independent Kim Rubenstein on 5.8%, the United Australia Party on 1.6% and others on 3.7%, with 10.8% undecided. Community Engagement was similar except that the United Australia Party appeared to be boosted by the absence of an “others” option: Labor 30.9%, Liberal 21.5%, Greens 13.0%, Pocock 11.7%, Rubenstein 5.3% and UAP 6.0%, with 11.5% undecided. With sufficiently strong flows of preferences between non-Liberal candidates, such numbers would put Seselja under pressure from Pocock or Tjanara Goreng Goreng of the Greens. The Redbridge poll was a live interview phone poll conducted on March 24 from a sample of 708; the Community Engagement poll was an automated phone poll conducted March 23 to 25 from a sample of 1331.

• The Financial Review reports a uComms poll for independent candidate Sophie Scamps’ campaign has her at 23.9% of the primary vote in Mackellar, with Liberal incumbent Jason Falinski on 35.2% (down from 53.0% in 2019) and Labor on 18.0% (up from 16.9%). Out of an unspecified undecided component, 28% said they were leaning to Falinski and 25% to Scamps. The poll also found Scott Morrison at 40% approval and 52% disapproval. Based on this incomplete information, the results seem to imply a lead of around 55-45 to Scamps if preferences flow as they did in nearby Warringah and Wentworth when independents squared off against Liberals in 2019. The automated phone poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 833.

• Shortly after similar polls showing Labor ahead in Boothby and Sturt in South Australia, a uComms poll for the Australia Institute finds Labor leading 53-47 in the Liberal-held Tasmanian seat of Braddon, albeit that it was conducted two to three weeks ago. Combining results with the initial voting intention question and a forced response follow-up for the 3.9% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 35.9%, Labor 34.0%, One Nation 7.3%, Jacqui Lambie Network 7.9%, Greens 5.5%, and independents and others 6.7%. The automated phone poll was conducted March 17 to 21 from a sample of 829.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,653 comments on “Election timing and more seat polls”

Comments Page 20 of 34
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  1. Of course Asha – Labor’s hope is the entire campaign is an entire 5-6 week discussion about Morrison.

    I’m guessing the ratio of positive to negative ads from the Libs will be quite low.

  2. I wonder how long Morrison can keep up his new manly baritone? The voice of the saviour of the nation. Surely it will propel him to another miracle win.

  3. nath @ #885 Saturday, April 9th, 2022 – 6:05 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 6:03 pm

    Then he shouldn’t have done it.
    ________
    Why? If he had isolated for the required time, and then did the ad, what’s the problem?

    Apart from you being annoyed that Scomo’s manly baritone might signify success at the upcoming election.

    I don’t think Asha has a problem, I think you’re letting the Coalition get to you.

    Now, repeat after this guy:

    Aaron Smith
    @Aaronsmith333

    Why does Scott Morrison keep saying ‘people know me’ as if that’s a good thing?

  5. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 10:49 am

    ‘After 39 years of exemplary service and extraordinary faithfulness and fruitfulness, this is the communication Bobbie received from the Hillsong Church board as she is made redundant (effective immediately) through no choice of her own,’ he wrote.

    ‘This just 3 weeks after she hosted her 26th year of Colour Conferences. (A total of 118 conferences around the world.)

    ‘She has relentlessly served God and served people as she stood side by side with me for four decades leading Hillsong Church, faithful in the good times and the tough times alike. And we are supposed to act like this is all ok. It’s not!’

    iow…..39 years of making up shit for a living… “relentlessly served” the tax haven [Hillsong]…who could care less!!!

  7. 7NEWS Canberra@7NewsCanberra
    ·
    2m
    The federal election will be called tomorrow morning. @ScottMorrisonMP is asking Australians to re-elect him based on his record of managing the pandemic, the economy and national security, while @AlboMP is promising a better future. https://youtu.be/GILRn-jxCeg #auspol #7NEWS

  9. Outsider:

    I wonder how long Morrison can keep up his new manly baritone? The voice of the saviour of the nation. Surely it will propel him to another miracle win.

    He could always wear one of these on the campaign trail:

  10. What Morrison showed during the bushfires was fleeing to another country and lying about it.
    What Morrison showed during the pandemic was incompetence and lies.
    What Morrison showed during the droughts was rorts and incompetence

    What Morrison showed during the last 3 years was rorts, incompetence and lies

    Tine for a new federal government

  11. C@t
    I just read one of your posts from earlier today which seemed to be saying that you don’t see anything wrong with executing a 14 year old boy. It took me a bit by surprise as I wouldn’t have expected that from you.

    I don’t know the background to your comment so I’m hoping that I have just got the wrong impression.

  12. Bystander @ #899 Saturday, April 9th, 2022 – 6:29 pm

    C@t
    I just read one of your posts from earlier today which seemed to be saying that you don’t see anything wrong with executing a 14 year old boy. It took me a bit by surprise as I wouldn’t have expected that from you.

    I don’t know the background to your comment so I’m hoping that I have just got the wrong impression.

    Yes you most certainly have. My comment this morning was wrt the fact that Douglas and Milko ONLY seemed concerned with the execution of a 14yo boy from eons ago but seemingly hasn’t expressed any outrage whatsoever about children being killed right now in Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s missiles, bombs and troops.

    Of course, it goes without saying that capital punishment of any innocent is abhorrent, but so is what Putin is unleashing on Ukraine now.

  15. And this comment gets to the heart of that Morrison video:

    Jeff Miles
    @Jeffreyemiles
    ·
    1h
    This is a strange way for the Liberals to begin their election campaign in that Morrison in the video doesn’t really make the case as to why the government should be re-elected. #auspol

  17. Soon enough we will see the Lying Reactionaries attempt to destroy Albo. They have nothing else with which to try. They can’t run on their own record. They can’t run on their ‘vision’. They can’t run on trust. They certainly can’t run on character or capability. They can’t run on honesty. They can’t run on security. They cannot run on the past and still less on the future. They will try to invent lies about their opponent. That’s all they have.

    Voters are really very sick of lies and of the sickening defamation that the Reactionaries pass off as politics. I think every lie they tell will cost them votes.

    The Not-A-Lib plurality will come in at 2:1 at least.

  19. Morrison: “40000 people are alive today because of the way we managed the pandemic.”

    Absolute crap.

    However, we do know the number that died needlessly because of the way Morrison managed the pandemic.

  23. They’re running in their past? Seriously? Pandemic? Economy? Security?

    Pandemic:
    Fail. No one cares how many didn’t die. It’s meaningless. Incredibly stupid and misunderstanding what registers. People will remember the vaccine roll out balls-up, the aged care deaths, the fed-state fighting, the blame shifting.

    Economy?
    Fail. A trillion times fail and a trillion times cost of living and wage regression. The number of jobs created means zip to someone who can’t buy meat.

    Security?
    Fail. Solomon Islands, a pissed off rising super power, what tanks, what subs.

    Labor running on a better future. Let me think about that. Anyone want a better future?

    Tactics:
    Libs 0
    Labor 1

    Tactics:

    Libs 0
    Labor 1

  25. However, we do know the number that died needlessly because of the way Morrison managed the pandemic.

    Someone told me yesterday NSW is going to stop reporting COVID deaths. If true then we actually won’t know the number of needless deaths.

  27. Really unbelievable, that Morrison. There are a lot of serious matters to consider and his idea of campaigning is to try to get the attention of a 5 year old. He is a joke. A very sick joke.

  32. I guess if your the Finns – with most of the Russian army in Ukraine sneaking into NATO now is good timing.

    Wonder how the Russians will feel having NATO 200kms from St Petersburg?

  33. C@t:

    I think that’s really very unfair on D&M and quite a strange bar to set in general. People are under no obligation to post about particular topics, and they certainly shouldn’t feel pressured into expressing an opinion on every single awful thing going on in the world right now just to prove that they care about it.

    D&M posted a rather horrifying but important piece of history that I imagine most of us knew little to nothing about. (I did not.) While it was grim reading – the pictures being especially heartrending – I’m glad that she did so, as its a story that more should be aware of.

  35. Absolutely gobsmacked if they think running in the pandemic is a positive – Jobkeeper waste, Vaccine rollout bungled, all the hard lifting done by the States.

    Who the %#&$ is advising them?

  37. @ Bystander @ #899 Saturday, April 9th, 2022 – 6:29 pm

    “C@t
    I just read one of your posts from earlier today which seemed to be saying that you don’t see anything wrong with executing a 14 year old boy. It took me a bit by surprise as I wouldn’t have expected that from you.

    I don’t know the background to your comment so I’m hoping that I have just got the wrong impression.”

    C@t gets pretty unhinged as a reflect whenever someone raises the fact that the Good Ole’ US of A can be … pretty shit …

    Her lizard brain kicks into action, lest anyone THINK that pointing out just how shit America is somehow used as a rationalisation for all the other piles of merde out there. Tis’ important to have rose tinted goggles regarding ‘Merica on at all times in that endeavour. This reaction is quite on par with the lizard brain sensibilities of the LNP.

    #Wolverine!!!

  38. C@t, to be fair, I don’t really think there is any doubt about what D&M thinks about the horrors in Ukraine. It is surely a given. She was noticeably distressed about what had just been brought to her attention, and I think needed to vent. To be honest, that image will haunt me for a long time, and to be really honest, I wish I hadn’t seen it.

  39. I haven’t posted about the situation in Ukraine and Putin’s war crimes because I find the topic so depressing and out of my control.

    That doesn’t mean I’m not horrified with it all.

  42. Confessions @ #989 Saturday, April 9th, 2022 – 6:56 pm

    I haven’t posted about the situation in Ukraine and Putin’s war crimes because I find the topic so depressing and out of my control.

    That doesn’t mean I’m not horrified with it all.

    I just try to post some related music stuff to try and help me, and maybe others, deal with it.

  44. Kirky says:
    Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 6:51 pm
    Absolutely gobsmacked if they think running in the pandemic is a positive – Jobkeeper waste, Vaccine rollout bungled

    All topics are a save the furniture appeal to core support looking justification to vote for SfM

  45. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, April 9, 2022 at 6:46 pm
    That’s out their briefly – 67:33 2PP. 2 or 3 weeks ago you were certain Labor was going to lose.

    There’s a distinction between 2PP and my notion of a Not-A-Lib plurality.

    The 2PP is an arithmetic artefact only and, since the votes are are going in 3 separate and mutually exclusive directions, will be anyone’s guess. But the Liberals are stuffed. Absolutely stuffed. The Dark Blue Past will lose seats to the alt-Lib Lite Blue Future.

    They will also lose seats all around the country to Labor, who will form the next government very easily, probably with a tally of around 95 seats or so. I think it’s quite possible the National rump will constitute the largest single bloc and that Barnaby Joyce will become LOTO.

    I’m tempted to add a proviso….to say this is all contingent on the campaign. That would be sensible. However, I think the Lying Reactionaries will continue to campaign against themselves. They will encourage further migration of support to Labor and to the Lite. They are completely out of touch with voters.

    This is all very overdue. The Lying Reactionaries are utterly unfit to govern. They have proven this several times over. No matter how they may try to invoke fear of Labor, voters fear and resent the reality of Reactionary stupidity even more. They are history.

    Of course, a great result in the House cannot by itself change the composition of the Senate, where the Reactionaries and their cadets, the Greens, will have the numbers. They will set out to destroy Labor. This cannot be changed by the election.

  48. So briefly if I understand your post you are saying 56:44 to Labor for 95 seats off a Labor primary of 33%.

    Your numbers dont seem to add up.

  50. Bludging:

    So, if I’m understanding correctly, your innovative new Not-a-Lib Plurality measure is just a fancy way of expressing the Liberals’ primary vote?

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