The post-budget polling bonanza continues to unfold, our first item of business being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian. On voting intention, the poll finds the Coalition primary vote steady on 37%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, One Nation up one to 4% and the United Australia Party up one to 3%. A lower undecided rate and a stronger flow of preferences to Labor causes the gap to widen on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition up one to 45%, with 5% undecided.
The poll suggested the budget had received a lukewarm response, with 25% saying it had made them more likely to vote Coalition and 19% less so. Twenty-five per cent said it would be good for them personally, 33% rated that its inducements would make a significant difference to them, and 56% believed the budget’s main purpose was to help the Coalition win the election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086 – more comprehensive results will be along with the publication of the full report later today.
UPDATE: Full results here. Also out today is the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, showing Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%, and a Roy Morgan poll with Labor leading 57-43, which I’ll cover in a new post overnight.
Also out today from The Australian is the regular annual Newspoll results on response to the budget. Here too the results are not as strong as the government might have hoped, the clearest indication of which is the finding that 40% thought the opposition would do a better job with 42% thinking otherwise. As shown in the chart below, this is the weakest result on this question since the Coalition came to power, and the third weakest for any government since the inception of the series all the way back in 1988. While quite a few other results are within its margin of error, all were notably recorded by governments in their last terms before losing office.
The poll nonetheless found that 26% of respondents felt the budget would be good for them personally compared with 25% who thought the opposite and 49% who opted for neither, the net positive rating of 1% being the ninth best result out of the 35. However, the respective results of 33%, 23% and 44% for impact on the economy were relatively poor, with the net positive 10% rating being the worst since the Abbott government’s politically disastrous debut budget in 2014 and the eighth worst overall.
The following chart shows the relationship between the net results on personal and economic impact going back to 1988, with the current budget shown in red. Its position below the trendline is consistent with a budget that was perceived as prioritising votes over the economy – a budget received favourably enough to score a near net zero result on personal impact would typically land at around plus 25% for economic impact, rather than plus 10%.
Also out today courtesy of the Financial Review are state breakdowns from yesterday’s Ipsos poll. Given the poll’s large sample size of 2510, these results are quite robust for New South Wales (sample size 818), Victoria (644) and to some extent Queensland (514). Not much should be read into the results for the smaller states, although I’m actually quite pleased that the paper has gone so far as to provide the results for Tasmania and even the Australian Capital Territory (the Northern Territory is rolled together with South Australia), while making it clear that the error margins in these cases are in the order of 15%.
At the business end, the poll finds Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales (a swing of around 5% with an error margin of 3.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (swing of 3%, error margin of 4.1%) and 54-46 in Queensland (swing of 12.5%, error margin of 4.4%). From here on, proceed with caution: 54-46 in Western Australia (sample of 251, error margin of 6.5%), 62-38 in South Australia/Northern Territory (sample of 186, error margin of 7.3%), 64-36 in Tasmania (sample of 54, error margin of 14.0%) and 57-43 in the ACT (sample of 43, error margin of 15.3%).
Alpo
I wouldn’t give much credence to the margins of error given for state-level breakdowns, especially in Queensland. I believe the federal polling in Queensland was off by something like 10% in 2019.
“43 years of marriage and I’m finally having some influence.”
So I’ve only got to wait out just a little of a decade!
“What chance SFM uses his concocted NSW selection mess, heading off to HCofA on appeal after today’s decision, as an excuse for a split election?”
With the way things are shaping up for Morrison after the intense, ongoing and widespread dumping on by members of his own Govt and Party….no way. It would be seen as tricky and tactical purely so he can stay in the big chair as long as possible. I reckon the electorate is sick of this and just want the election over and done. Deny them that and the Libs are screwed.
Actually, Morrisons best move may be to call an election asap and then “rally” the troops into election campaign mode where this kind of dumping on is less likely??
Alpo – re: the randomness of the recent response to ‘would opposition have done better’ budget-wise
Yes, that struck me as very interesting as well.
Idle thoughts on why this might be so:
* lots of unprecedented shit going on – notably covid would have shaken things up a lot in 2020
* the 3 Lib leaders in 3 terms (without losing the paint that RGR clearly caused) – the LNP seemed to be able to use leadership change to largely reset their standing and ‘move on’ from negatives from the previous leader
* Abbott was clearly never greatly liked, nor his government particularly respected so there was a weak starting reference point (and 2014 being such a nasty budget clearly didn’t help).
* There’s another potential trend – the Howard years look like they almost “lead in” to the RGR years trend-wise, and the ATM years look pretty anemic compared with the Howard years and earlier Hawke/Rudd years, and this might be related to a general increasing lack of trust in government (and of course the fact that the ATM government has been seriously shit compared to pretty much any of its predecessors).
UK Cartoons:
We Want Paul
“This is a reasonably good point, because the debate on any new development will be clouded by loud ignorant selfish voices of nimby’s if you let them. Leadership is doing something good even when the nimby’s attack.”
It’s not a good point as it’s an unrealistically large amount of land. Why would you need 100,000 ha? It’s a stupid claim.
Get rid of cars and you open up a lot of electric aided transport to deal with hills. Electric bikes, scooters, rickshaws etc. Sure, you wont have the speed, but if the speed limit is 50km/h (probably should be 40km/h) and you only do 25km/h and you are travelling <5km – not a biggie….. plus all the other conveniences. Great to get to the shops. Great to get to the bus/train stop. Great to go to local picnics, bushwalks, visiting, cafes, pub….
Not for everywhere, of course. If you are out in the wilds of Bouddi you may need something more substantial for your everyday trip. But these new electric rickshaws look suitable even for that.
Astrobleme @ #72 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 6:49 am
That was one of the starkest differences when I started travelling, you’d read that a place had a million people, the same as Adelaide, and when you got there you were basically able to walk anywhere as the footprint was tiny.
100,000 hectares ? Not a yuge amount in the great scheme of things.
.
.
More than 90,000 hectares of koala habitat in Queensland ……………….landholders cleared 680,688 hectares of woody vegetation in 2018-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/14/land-clearing-destroyed-90000-hectares-of-queensland-koala-habitat-in-single-year-analysis-finds
I could envision the government perhaps trying to use something like Covid or the floods as a bullshit excuse for splitting the elections. “It’s just not safe to hold a full election right now, but we still have to hold a Senate election by May 21. Sorry, got no other options here”
Or perhaps just avoid justifying it at all, act like split elections are totally normal, and say WTTE of, “A senate election is due on May 21 and a house election in September, so we will be holding them then. End of story.”
Both terrible arguments that you’d hope people would see through, but if there’s anyone who would think they could get away with it, it’s this government.
mundo @ #98 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 9:17 am
Patience Grasshopper…
“It’s not a good point as it’s an unrealistically large amount of land. Why would you need 100,000 ha? It’s a stupid claim”
Fair point but also that kind of insane hyperbole is the very best some posters get and is kinda what I expected, but it wouldn’t matter what density, cost or develop plot size the nimby’s will challenge it. The alternative is to go somewhere beyond the fringe, but to do that well costs much much more upfront. And obviously a car free development is going to need excellent public transport to jobs etc if it is meant to be low cost for not wealthy people.
“Just in Time” assumes that everything works 100%. It’s a recipe for eventual trouble, especially if most of the actual work is done overseas. No disruptions, no bad weather, no adverse trade conditions. It’s like maximising your returns by not bothering with insurance.
_____
Steve777
That is a rather shallow dismissal of “Just in Time”. The term itself is an oversimplification of well thought out and analysed process designs. Properly done, they do have effective insurances built in and these reflect the known realities of the day.
Some years ago I set up a complex process for the sequential supply of packs of components sourced from Japan and containerised.
The system we launched did have flexibilities built in that would permit, without medium term risk, the relatively late changing of model mix released for manufacture according to the demand. In what was thought by some to be a very risky thing, the system was based upon the fact that at the time of arrival of any given vessel, there would be no more than four days of unboxed material available. It ran for 10 years without breaking.
It is not just houses. There are roads,footpaths, businesses,schools,parks etc that come with ‘development’
BK
Thanks for the tremendous roundup today, that must have taken you ages. We are in your debt.
Apart from the political news the news from the Ukraine and climate change (IPCC) are dreadful. Labor probably does not need to say any more about it now, but in office it will have to deliver a comprehensive solution. Renewable energy is now cheaper, and the grid plan is a great start, but new coal or gas plants will make Australia a pariah, and we must get a proper approach to vehicle emissions ASAP. The former will create jobs, and the later will reduce fuel imports. We shoudl use any change to assist coal towns.
BK
Years ago when I did project management we would do monte-carlo analysis to work out the risk of project disruptions and how much stock we needed. That ws in the 90s! Just in time was a huge step backwards. Covering any emergency is costly, and suggests a lack of management skill as you imply.
Stopping Albanese “sneaking into office” has been a theme from Morrison in last few weeks.
Brother Stuey tweeted it again today
Another sign of a split election on the cards?
Nothing would surprise me about this mob anymore.
Player One says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:45 am
Ven @ #45 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 8:13 am
…two parties spruiking essentially the same policies but using different rhetoric.
…is hardly surprising, considering they are seeking votes from the same electorate in the same country at the same time.
The pro-reactionary plurality in Australian Federal politics is dominant. This has been the case ever since WW1. At the moment that plurality is very deeply ruptured so we can say that the electorate is divided into Not-A-Lib and Pro-Lib sentiments/expressions. The Not-a-Lib plurality is large enough to bring the Liberals to their knees this time. We don’t really know how this will play out in detail, but it should certainly result in the election of a Labor majority in the House of Representatives, and the substitution of Lite Libs for Heavy Libs in a significant number of seats.
The 2PP measures are mainly of curiosity value in an electorate that is dividing in 3 directions at the same time though in different areas.
The most encouraging number in the polls is the evident recovery in Labor support in QLD. The indications are consistent with a change of Government, and may herald Labor’s best result in that State since WW2. Let’s hope so. The most discouraging number is the apparent stability in the Green vote, which is a Labor-phobic reaction.
Not a ‘crime’ in quotes, but an actual crime apparently.
It’s not some “Freedom off the Press” study project.
It’s a war. And you’d think the Ukrainian government has a right to restrict communications showing the results of attacks on its infrastructure in any way they like, without being second-guessed by woke virtue signallers half a world away.
Poroti
“It is not just houses. There are roads,footpaths, businesses,schools,parks etc that come with ‘development’”
Why are people assuming it would be suburbs? and Big suburbs…
You’re also assuming that this one million homes needs schools etc.
why not actually look at the policy rather than speculate and make up numbers.
https://greens.org.au/housing
From their doc:
The Greens will establish a Federal Housing Trust to build a million public and social homes across cities, towns, regions and remote areas over 20 years.
So this is not a bunch of suburbs that get built next year, but rather homes built in existing areas over a 20 year period.
‘Astrobleme says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:49 am
Boerwar
You know there are good arguments and bad arguments, but for some reason you end up at stupid arguments…
“Perhaps you would like to identify the 100,000 hectares upon which the Greens will build a million houses – you know, given how the local Greens nimbies routinely object to development?”
Why on earth are you thinking the houses need 1000m2? Why would they not be apartments? or Triplex blocks etc?
Why do you always reach for the stupid?’
————————————–
Abusive post. Standard approach for the Greens when they have trouble actually explaining their policies.
I leave it to you to identify the spatial footprint of Bandt’s promise to build a million ‘dwellings’. Apart from the dwellings you would, as I have, include the infrastructure footprint:
– dams, powerlines, windfarms, mines and quarries for materials, roading to and from the mines, solar panels, water channels, roads, railways, drains, footpaths, bikepaths, schools, shopping malls, parking spaces, entertainment venues, spaces for urban service providers, railway stations, open spaces, hospitals, clinics, aged care facilities, jails, fire stations, police stations, dance halls and the like.
I opted for 100,000 hectares because it was the lowball estimate.
Over to you.
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:38 am
Hidden in the Dawn Patrol is this:
‘And business leaders are calling on whoever wins government to urgently resurrect the dying collective bargaining system to allow for the productivity that underpins higher wages, and are willing to negotiate safeguards with unions if necessary.’
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/a-disaster-ceos-want-urgent-bargaining-fix-to-restart-wage-growth-20220404-p5aanr
I think this is Big.
”
It appears Business thinks ALP will win otherwise they won’t go near ‘collective bargaining system’. I was never in collective bargaining system and I worked in lot of big companies and Government departments even during ALP years.
Have I missed something? Is there a thought/theory that the court cases re NSW preselection is a rouse to delay the lower house election?
Because creating a split election just because you think it might suit you is a nuts idea. Who would be stupid enough to think that would fly? He would be rolled the minute he announced it.
Alpo @ Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:03 am
I’ll have a go. Since 2014 we have had a government that has further weaponised the budget as an election strategy with the provision of carefree largess at the expense of a large increase in debt levels. Added to this we have a complicit media that has deliberately sold the budget and has reduced mention of debt levels.
See the graph below for the the Fourth Estate’s complicity.
The supply-chain resilience issues we’ve experienced from covid and increasing global instability clearly need to be addressed somehow.
But I don’t see how it makes sense to try to impose the responsibility for this on businesses. Businesses will do their own risk analyses and try to tune their supply chains for best sustainable profitability, and that’s fine. They won’t always get it right, but they just focus on what they are doing.
The overall resilience of the system needs to be attended to at a governmental level because any individual business is not going to either have the visibility, the agency, or really the concern, about what the overall system resilience might be.
To my mind that means having an industry policy that involves some sort of government purchasing policy or reselling policy where some amount of identified critical products/materials is purchased based on supply chain resilience rather than cost, including some amount of mandated diversity of supply and local manufacture – a modest proportion to not screw around with the markets doing their thing too much (guessing maybe 10% of the market for the essential products/materials), but sizeable enough to sustain alternate local production skills and capabilities.
And thank you BK!
p&BB
One of the rather large difficulties with assessing what is happening in Ukraine is the overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine feeling in the western MSM more generally. For example, everyone knows the Russians are retreating from Kyiv and no-one knows which city the Russians captured this week.
”
Alposays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:43 am
“56% believed the budget’s main purpose was to help the Coalition win the election.”
There you go, the persistent Voter De-Moronisation effort is showing some tangible results….
”
That too after stellar Morrisonisation effort of MSM in the last 3 years, which continues even today.
poroti says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:27 am
Why on earth are you thinking the houses need 1000m2?
It is not just houses. There are roads,footpaths, businesses,schools,parks etc that come with ‘development’
——————————–
The Greens are actually a bit thin on quality policy discussions, are they not?
p
The Dutch have been kicked out of most of the world, one way or another. Just add Ukraine to the list.
“Ashasays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:18 am
Alpo
So, in the worst of circumstances that’s a swing in Qld of 8.1% to the ALP.
I wouldn’t give much credence to the margins of error given for state-level breakdowns, especially in Queensland. I believe the federal polling in Queensland was off by something like 10% in 2019.”
I am not sure about that 10% error (understood as 10 points difference in the 2PP), given that the LNP won the state with a 58.44% 2PP…. Were the opinion polls predicting an LNP loss in Queensland with a 48.44% 2PP? To be frank I don’t recall that, but I am happy to see evidence.
Arky, Crowe explicitly said “election cycle”, not “budget cycle”.
The election will be either on 14 May or 21 May. That’s either 6 weeks less 3 days, or 6 weeks plus 4 days, from today: “6 weeks, more or less”.
Boerwar @ #127 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 7:45 am
Seems to match your limitations when discussing the subject.
Re Poroti earlier
A tweet from that thread, replying to the Dutch journalist
‘Ukrainians get arrested for publishing strike footage as it helps russians correct further attacks. But foreign journalists like you are fine with sacrificing a bunch of Ukrainians for clicks, right?’
Poroti get it off your chest and tell us how many women and children Putin is entitled to murder in Ukraine to level the books with US/Nato past actions in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc
One million? Two?
Sucks for them young kids but no doubt you’ll tell us how ‘we’ and ‘they’ deserve it
You really are a detestable fucking scumbag
Ray (UK) @ #114 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 9:50 am
+1 to the power of infinity
Bushfire Bill says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:38 am
His ‘crime’ ? Filming this report of the rocket strike on the fuel depot in Odessa.
https://twitter.com/Saint_Just1965/status/1510473883798937601
Not a ‘crime’ in quotes, but an actual crime apparently.
It’s not some “Freedom off the Press” study project.
It’s a war. And you’d think the Ukrainian government has a right to restrict communications showing the results of attacks on its infrastructure in any way they like, without being second-guessed by woke virtue signallers half a world away.
_____________________________________
Looking at the comments, I thought he was extremely lucky to be banned. In even liberal democracies at war he would have found himself in jail. In Putin’s Russia or in China he might be fighting charges of disclosing state secrets.
Ukraine is using on the spot reporting to the world as a weapon, but these are controlled to ensure that its enemy, which is attacking it and killing its people (civilians as well as military) is harmed not helped.
Boerwar @ #126 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 9:13 am
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-4
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/terror-insurgent-group/latest/ukraine-crisis
Alpo, Bludgertrack 2019 had the Qld 2PP at 51/49 in favour of the Coalition. This was based on primaries for LNP of 36.2% (actual result 43.7%) and the ALP of 31.4% (actual result 26.68%).
Boerwar
About that Rottweiller 🙂 From NZ article.
ltep @ Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:52 am
Queensland is where the tide certainly came in for Morrison. Adani, GetUp, death taxes and Palmer added up to a potent anti-Labor brew.
”
Steve777says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:48 am
In 1982-83, 1995-96 and 2007 change was in the air. The Government of the day seemed terminal, nothing was working for it. In 1983, after the ascension of Hawke, and to a lesser extent in 2007, there was enthusiasm for the alternative. In 1996 there wasn’t much enthusiasm for the alternative but there was for turfing the current lot.
In 2019, in spite of what the polls were saying, there was no sense of a change on the way. As we found out, that’s because it wasn’t.
What about this time? The Morrison Government is definitely on the nose out in voter land. Everything it touches turns to crap. Money and the Media are still in its corner but they have a hell of a job putting lipstick on this particular pig. We’ll see how it goes when the campaign proper gets underway, I’m not seeing much enthusiasm for the alternative, but there wasn’t in 1996. As they say, its Governments that lose elections. Change is definitely in the air.
”
Two things Steve777
1. (Everything LNP government touches turns to crap.) That is the most significant thing that is helping ALP because Albanese was never rabid like Abbott.
2. When I mentioned 6 months ago that the result may be similar to 1996 result (i.e. opposition winning without doing much), I was ridiculed by Lars to “Dream on”. I am still not out of my dream. Hopefully my dreams come true atleast this time. 🙂
Bludging @ #117 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 9:37 am
Well, at least you acknowledge that their policies are substantially the same. It seems that neither side has the ambition to be better than that, or confidence that the electorate would support them if they were.
Neither side wants change, other than who gets to sit on the Treasury benches 🙁
Ven @ #102 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 9:38 am
Yes, exactly, that’s why it’s big. However, I also have a thought that maybe, just maybe, the business sector is going through a period of crisis of conscience whereby they are realising that the profit to wages share of businesses is so out of whack that it needs to be retuned. I mean, it’s getting to the point now where there will be no room left on the water as increasingly grotesquely large ‘yachts’ of these CEOs are cheek by jowl with each other, while their employees struggle to put a roof over their family’s head, pay the bills and put food on the table. All from their jobs where they work 10 times harder than any CEO. The pandemic has proven this in spades. And hearts, diamonds and clubs.
And, thank you, Ven, for replying to my posts, I always appreciate it.
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:48 am
Boerwar @ #127 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 7:45 am
poroti says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:27 am
Why on earth are you thinking the houses need 1000m2?
It is not just houses. There are roads,footpaths, businesses,schools,parks etc that come with ‘development’
——————————–
The Greens are actually a bit thin on quality policy discussions, are they not?
Seems to match your limitations when discussing the subject.’
==============================================
Sniping is not engaging in the public policy debate.
Where, for example, is Bandt’s environmental impact statement for building a million dwellings?
With all the caveats about not counting chickens before they hatch etc, I find the polling a consistently very positive indicator for Labor, for several reasons…
1. There is no ‘herding’ – polls are returning diverse results, none of them good for the Coalition.
2. In the Coalition’s best jurisdiction, Qld, Labor’s WORST result this year is a swing to it of 4.5% (Newspoll) – which should therefore be considered an outlier, like today’s ridiculous 12.5% swing to Labor in one of the several other polls. We could be crude and take the average of those numbers, suggesting a swing to Labor of about 8.5% and a Qld 2PP of 50-50 – disastrous numbers for the Coalition. Today’s (Coalition-leaning, remember) Resolve has LNP and Labor tied on PV, also a Coalition disaster.
3. In most other jurisdictions, Coalition polling ranges from ‘poor’ to ‘disastrous’ when compared to 2019 results. The only possible exception is Tasmania, with the occasional swing to the Coalition, but no seat gains likely.
A postscript: I can’t see any scenario in which splitting the House and Senate elections would be good for the govt. Baseball bats would probably be exchanged for bazookas etc. The Coalition would even risk handing Labor a Senate majority in May and an historic House win in September, rivaling 1943. I wish the govt would split the elections!
Correction!
Doh.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/mystery-shrouds-hansard-change-to-hide-budget-s-missing-10-drug-price-cut-20220404-p5aaqd.html
Ray (UK) @ – 9:50 am
Good morning fuck wit. Videos of all the strikes on fuel depots flood the internet. Published by Ukrainian people. What possible ‘secret’ information could that journalist have given away when there are videos from virtually next door to the refinery on the internet ?
New South Wales :
There have been 12 COVID-19 deaths recorded overnight in New South Wales.
The state has reported 1,467 hospitalisations of people with the virus, 56 of whom are in the intensive care unit.
There are 19,183 new cases, 13,062 of whom were reported via rapid antigen tests and 6,121 via PCR tests.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Victoria :
In Victoria, the state has reported eight lives lost overnight.
There are 339 hospitalisations, 18 of which are in intensive care and four are requiring ventilators.
The state has 12,007 new cases, taking its total to 63,003 active cases.
Could be those damn Russkies?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-05/qld-optus-mobile-major-outage-phone-calls/100966128
Can I just say this about Queensland? Apropos of knowing nothing about the state but can I say that every time I see Anastacia Palascsjuk on the TV I get an instant feeling of warmth and comfort that she’s got this. Maybe that’s translating to federal voting intentions?