Budget polling: day two

No real change on voting intention from Essential Research; mediocre budget reaction results from Newspoll; state breakdowns from Ipsos.

The post-budget polling bonanza continues to unfold, our first item of business being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian. On voting intention, the poll finds the Coalition primary vote steady on 37%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, One Nation up one to 4% and the United Australia Party up one to 3%. A lower undecided rate and a stronger flow of preferences to Labor causes the gap to widen on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition up one to 45%, with 5% undecided.

The poll suggested the budget had received a lukewarm response, with 25% saying it had made them more likely to vote Coalition and 19% less so. Twenty-five per cent said it would be good for them personally, 33% rated that its inducements would make a significant difference to them, and 56% believed the budget’s main purpose was to help the Coalition win the election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086 – more comprehensive results will be along with the publication of the full report later today.

UPDATE: Full results here. Also out today is the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, showing Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%, and a Roy Morgan poll with Labor leading 57-43, which I’ll cover in a new post overnight.

Also out today from The Australian is the regular annual Newspoll results on response to the budget. Here too the results are not as strong as the government might have hoped, the clearest indication of which is the finding that 40% thought the opposition would do a better job with 42% thinking otherwise. As shown in the chart below, this is the weakest result on this question since the Coalition came to power, and the third weakest for any government since the inception of the series all the way back in 1988. While quite a few other results are within its margin of error, all were notably recorded by governments in their last terms before losing office.

The poll nonetheless found that 26% of respondents felt the budget would be good for them personally compared with 25% who thought the opposite and 49% who opted for neither, the net positive rating of 1% being the ninth best result out of the 35. However, the respective results of 33%, 23% and 44% for impact on the economy were relatively poor, with the net positive 10% rating being the worst since the Abbott government’s politically disastrous debut budget in 2014 and the eighth worst overall.

The following chart shows the relationship between the net results on personal and economic impact going back to 1988, with the current budget shown in red. Its position below the trendline is consistent with a budget that was perceived as prioritising votes over the economy – a budget received favourably enough to score a near net zero result on personal impact would typically land at around plus 25% for economic impact, rather than plus 10%.

Also out today courtesy of the Financial Review are state breakdowns from yesterday’s Ipsos poll. Given the poll’s large sample size of 2510, these results are quite robust for New South Wales (sample size 818), Victoria (644) and to some extent Queensland (514). Not much should be read into the results for the smaller states, although I’m actually quite pleased that the paper has gone so far as to provide the results for Tasmania and even the Australian Capital Territory (the Northern Territory is rolled together with South Australia), while making it clear that the error margins in these cases are in the order of 15%.

At the business end, the poll finds Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales (a swing of around 5% with an error margin of 3.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (swing of 3%, error margin of 4.1%) and 54-46 in Queensland (swing of 12.5%, error margin of 4.4%). From here on, proceed with caution: 54-46 in Western Australia (sample of 251, error margin of 6.5%), 62-38 in South Australia/Northern Territory (sample of 186, error margin of 7.3%), 64-36 in Tasmania (sample of 54, error margin of 14.0%) and 57-43 in the ACT (sample of 43, error margin of 15.3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

758 comments on “Budget polling: day two”

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  1. Still nothing positive in this poll for the government. Clearly the budget has had little impact and is now history. The observation that Labor takes an 11-point lead on economic management is especially encouraging for the Opposition, particularly as Morrison’s continuing integrity issues continue to drag heavily on the Coalition’s chances.

  3. The blue-on-blue dogfight continues…

    Another senior Liberal has taken aim at Scott Morrison, accusing him of “self-serving ruthless bullying” and claiming he has “ruined” the Liberal party.

    Catherine Cusack, a NSW Liberal who announced two weeks ago she would resign from the legislative council over her anger about flood relief, adds her voice to a growing chorus of critics of Morrison from within his own party in an opinion piece for Guardian Australia.

    Cusack explicitly endorses Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells’s “character assessment of the prime minister” and reveals she will not vote for the Morrison government in the May election.

    Cusack accused Morrison of having “ruined” the Liberal party and “trashed” its values over two decades, as state director, “then as a scheming MP and now as prime minister finding loopholes in our constitution to delay preselections in order to get his way”.

    Cusack criticised Morrison for “forcing moderates to vote for [former Liberal and now United Australia party leader MP] Craig Kelly” when his preselection was under threat before the 2019 election.

    She has warned she would vote against the prime minister over factional “scheming” and politicised allocation of flood relief.

    “But he has outdone himself engineering a federal intervention to jump over the organisation all together.

    “He got what he wanted at the expense of destroying our rules-based selection system and disgusting virtually every member of the NSW division.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/04/liberal-mp-catherine-cusack-scott-morrison-ruthless-bullying-flood-victims

  7. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-vote-rises-despite-broad-support-for-budget-ahead-of-election-20220404-p5aaoo.html

    Resolve director Jim Reed said Labor was going into the election campaign in “pole position” with primary vote results that produced a clear lead for the party in two-party terms, but he cautioned that this was not emphatic support.

    “Labor’s vote is best described as wide but shallow,” Mr Reed said.

    “They are ahead but there is a weakness to their vote when our polling finds it is largely predicated on a protest against the government and the Prime Minister’s performance rather than an endorsement of the Opposition Leader or any major policy shift.”

  10. Some of the demographic breakdown in the Resolve are ‘interesting’..

    Female

    LNP – 37
    ALP – 35

    Male

    LNP – 30
    ALP – 41

  11. Not satisfied with the Guardian op-ed, Catherine Cusack is on ABC Breakfast News… probably available for Sunrise and Today as well, to repeat her character assessment of ScoMo

    Long-standing NSW State Upper House Liberal member @katieqs has accused the Prime Minister of ‘bullying’ flood victims over relief payments. She also tells @BreakfastNews she can’t bring herself to vote for the Morrison government at the coming election. #auspol

  13. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 6:36 am
    Some of the demographic breakdown in the Resolve are ‘interesting’..
    ————
    It’s been noted in several of the federal polls recently that the usual gender differences in party preference have disappeared or been reversed. Dunno what’s going on there. One of the Sunday polls – Ipsos I think- followed the usual pattern of higher support by women for the progressive parties.

  14. Perrottet was in Lismore yesterday. SfM will follow suit, but I wonder if this time he’ll allow the cameras to trail with him when he meets with residents.

  15. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 6:36 am
    Some of the demographic breakdown in the Resolve are ‘interesting’..

    Isn’t this the total reverse of other polls?

  16. The Ipsos state breakdowns don’t reflect the “Qld is soft for Labor” trend seen in some other polls:

    “At the business end, the poll finds Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales (a swing of around 5% with an error margin of 3.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (swing of 3%, error margin of 4.1%) and 54-46 in Queensland (swing of 12.5%, error margin of 4.4%).”

    I’ll happily take the ~13 Qld seats that a 12.5% swing would deliver and even at the lower end, assuming the least favourable margin of error, on an 8.1% swing half a dozen seats would fall with 3 or 4 others teetering on the brink. With Queensland’s bounty the rest of us could stay home on election day

  17. Sceptic and Sprocket

    These figures appear directly contradictory to everything we’ve been led to suspect thus far. Something odd I’d say.

  20. Perhaps ScoMo’s stupid stunts like hair washing, floor sweeping and dangerous welding are taking some paint off the Queensland male demographic which flocked to him in 2019?

  21. What tripe by Reed.

    ALP support ‘Wide but shallow’.

    Governments lose elections. Opposition’s just finish them off.

    Protest vote agains the PM? Plausible but Albanese has been playing the calm leader card with aplomb, while Morrison is not far off the bunker scene from Downfall. And if it is all protest vote, who would lift the Coalition more than a point? Both main contenders have fights in their seats. And what signal would it send?

    Policy? For right or wrong, the ALP has run a narrow focus on policy differences. I can’t see them releasing a bogey man policy now that scares the punters, while Frydenberg has been too clever by half with the get a bit extra now, lose the lot later ‘cost of living bonus’ tax offset that means they are taking an effective tax increase for Middle Australia to the polls.

    Every poll shows an historic thumping is coming, and this time it feels like it will happen.

    Howard’s last years were bad but not a patch on the incompetence, the corruption, the disunity of this farce of a government. A sewerage treatment plant would come to a shuddering halt trying to clean up the effluent flowing from them.

    The budget was the last slim hope and it has sunk without trace. We’re back on questions of character, and boy, does Morrison have a lot of that. All bad.

    My first comment when Morrison won in 2019 was that governments that win elections they really should have lost seldom escape the axe next time around will hold true.

    These turkeys are stuffed and in the oven, basted in their own juices, they are just waiting to be served up to the population who are itching to carve them up.

  22. One could be forgiven for thinking Crosby-Textor poll is more about indicating a lifeline of hope for their tactics ( for LNP) than showing the dismal reality,

  23. And boom! Morgan bounces back for the ALP.

    57-43.

    Leading in all states.

    Yeah, wide but shallow.

    Voters just waiting to crawl back to the Coalition.

    My arse.

  24. Mr Reid, formerly of Crosby Textor, also said:
    “Mr Reed said the relatively weak support for Labor could evaporate if Mr Morrison was able to woo uncommitted voters or convince the electorate that Mr Albanese was a risk, but he added that Labor had shown it was aware of the danger and was unlikely to present a large target.

    “We already see Labor’s long-term strategy of chipping away at Morrison’s credentials paying dividends, with a decently rated budget and a range of national security issues paying little dividend for the Coalition,” he said.”

    “Instead, Labor are actually converting the parked protest vote from minor parties and independents in our latest poll.”

  25. Weasel words from Barry O’Farrell on India’s support for Russia.

    Australia’s High Commissioner to India, Barry O’Farrell, said Australia opposed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine but respected India’s different stance.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/india-s-refusal-to-condemn-russia-not-an-issue-for-australia-barry-o-farrell-20220405-p5aatb.html

    Who knew that useless hack was High Commissioner to India? All he’s worried about is getting credit for the free trade deal (lentils and chick peas excluded)

  28. Robert Lee,

    I agree with your comments regarding the Libs are going to the Election with an effective tax increase for the middle class despite their proclamations to the contrary. Further, the voters have worked it out. Hence the lukewarm response to the Budget.

    The immediate drop in petrol prices from the excise reduction sees prices in the $1.70 range. While this is a welcome relief from the $2.20s last month, customers will still wonder why a 60 litre fill should be costing them $100 per fill when it was $less than $80 earlier in the year.

    The diversity apparent in the polling numbers of the different Companies seems to be the Primaries of the major parties, the different levels of male/female support being reported and the Queensland vote.

    A lot of rats deserting the ship in the Libs. so, you’d have to be thinking the 54/46 reported by Newspoll is fairly accurate at the moment.

  29. Morgan state breakdowns..

    Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all six States – including Queensland

    Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all six States during the past week after regaining a narrow two-party preferred lead in Queensland.

    The ALP’s lead in NSW has increased from a week ago with the ALP now on 55% (up 2% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 45% (down 2% points). This result represents a large swing of 7.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

    The ALP’s lead in Victoria is virtually unchanged from a week ago with the ALP now on 60.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 39.5% (down 0.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 7.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

    The ALP has regained a narrow advantage in Queensland with the ALP on 50.5% (up 1.5% points from a week ago) now just ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (down 1.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

    The ALP has increased its lead in Western Australia with the ALP on 59% (up 2% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 41% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 14.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

    In South Australia, there has been a swing back to the L-NP following two consecutive swings to the ALP surrounding the recent ALP State Election victory. Support for the ALP is now on 56% (down 7.5% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP on 44% (up 7.5% points).

    Despite this week’s strong swing to the L-NP in South Australia the result is still more favourable to the ALP than it was three weeks ago. This represents a swing of 5.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP has a large lead in Tasmania with the ALP 74% cf. L-NP 26%, a swing of 15% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

    https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8928-roy-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-april-2022-202204040823

  30. I’m getting the impression that Morrison is in the Kevin13 position of going around and campaigning as PM but every staged event looking absolutely hollow.

  31. David Crowe enters the “Bargaining” stage of grief…

    In theory, Morrison is history. In fact, he is still in the race. He won last time when the post-budget survey for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age at exactly the same point in the election cycle showed Labor had a two-party lead of 53 per cent.

    The Labor lead turned out to be soft three years ago. It melted in the heat of the campaign. That’s why it matters when Reed describes the Labor support as “wide but shallow” today.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victory-within-albanese-s-grasp-but-morrison-still-in-the-race-20220404-p5aaoy.html

  33. interesting as there on different wings of party Cgfw on right and cusack moderit how ecver bot disliked gladis and perotett and moreson maybi there working together now

  35. Reed’s “wide but shallow” remarks are surely just opinion and not based on any evidentiary reading of the numbers. How would he know?

  37. Until 2020 left me grounded, I travelled a lot for work, with a job that meant was constrained to fly economy, and find cheap accomodation. I also spent a lot of time with other ordinary people, just like me. This meant I was “embedded” in the local population, which I loved*.

    I think this is a different experience to many regular International business travellers, who will be staying in international hotels, and meeting other business leaders who also both travel a lot, and stay in International hotels, hence never getting outside their demographic.

    My reason for this introduction is that I have long thought that with the MSM media stacked against Federal labor, the only possible winning strategy for Labor is to go the small target route, and I think it is working.

    However, after the horrible experience of 2019 (and TaylorMade, you really are a bit odd – what I remember from 1993 is the positive: “This is a great victory for the true believers” – not any opposition member’s reaction), I will not believe that Morrison is defeated until Antony Green tells me so.

    So getting back to Labor’s so-called “small target strategy” (Hint, it is not, it is just hard for the MSM too attack, being about caring for the constituents), labor needs to be seen as a safe pair of hands in turbulent times. They need to take a positive but steady approach – do what they said they would if they win, but then set themselves up for another term where they can take more reform to the electorate.

    An d do not forget that Labor can do a lot legislatively in its first term without breaking promises: refund and reinvigorate renewable energy initiatives, hasten the transition of households and industry to renewable energy – this is also a national defence strategy – become energy self-sufficient.

    *So why do I mention my work travels? I am currently in France – this time not for work – but my previous work trips here mean that I understand the culture and politics. Here, the Parti Socialist (PS)(the equivalent of the ALP) has 2% of the presidential vote, according to opinion polls. For the third presidential election in a row Marine Le Pen will be the runner-up, and so there most likely will be a run-off election between her and Macron on 24th April.

    Think about this people. On the 24th April, the French people will have a choice between an econocrat and Marine Le Pen. And heaven help France if the econocrat Macron does not win. the far right, like Le Pen, do not play fair. Le Pen will use whatever levers of government she has available to make it harder for anyone not of the far right to prevail.

    And then there is the tragic case of Hungary. In 2009 I was talking about collaborating on Erasmus Scholarships with the major university in Budapest. Now my colleagues cannot even think about doing pure science. 15% of the population (the best and brightest) have voted with their feet and emigrated. 1 in 8 of the population. The populationHungarian is becoming residualised between those who like the “illiberal democracy”, and those who do not have the means to get out.

    I have also worked with Brazil, and watched as Jair Bolsanaro destroyed the university sector and turned Brazil intern illiberal democracy.

    So, while we could wish that Albo could win by presenting a big target – close down all fossil fuel power generation by 2025, get rid of negative gearing, and all sorts of other things that should be done, it is better for Albo to play a careful game, and then bring people along once he is in government.

    Otherwise we are staring down the Hungary or Brazil situation – think it cannot happen here – I can vouch for Hungary and Brazil being very normal countries, just like us, where the media got out of control, and the GFC but badly.

    Sadly, when people are hurting financially and angry, they do not blame the media, they do not blame the wealthy, they blame the “other”. Who is the “other”? Whoever the local strongman says it is at any moment in time.

    A tried and worn strategy, but very successful.

    So those of you who say ALP Coalition same – same, and it is better not to elect Labor until they come us with more radical policy, be very careful. Tonight it looks as though Viktor Orban has won a big enough majority to make further governance changes in Hungary, to even more strongly entrench his party, Fidez, as the only party able to win elections in Hungary into the foreseeable future.

  38. Resolve; the rise of the Karens. The Aus already tried that. Will we get someone at 9/FF pushing the line? Spurring a discussion on ABC until it become post truth?

  39. I agree with your comments regarding the Libs are going to the Election with an effective tax increase for the middle class despite their proclamations to the contrary.

    And, as ever, this is a copied ideological initiative to penalise a voting demographic, the Working Poor, that generally vote for the party with THEIR interests at heart, and it’s not the Republicans or the Coalition, which the Republicans in the US have just outlined as well in their election manifesto for the Mid Terms this year.

    Their ideological position is that every worker should pay tax, no one should get out of paying tax and so they are laying down their policy to effect that position. Even if as a very wealthy person you end up paying very little or no tax. Which is also by design.

    How far down the rabbit hole do you have to be to not see that you are committing electoral suicide by doing that!?!

  40. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 6:36 am
    Some of the demographic breakdown in the Resolve are ‘interesting’..

    Female

    LNP – 37
    ALP – 35

    Male

    LNP – 30
    ALP – 41
    ”

    Maybe it is Typo.It has to be other way round. Infact I believe election night exit polls will reflect the reverse of Resolve gender break down.

  42. Henry says:
    Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:59 am
    Reed’s “wide but shallow” remarks are surely just opinion and not based on any evidentiary reading of the numbers. How would he know?
    —————-
    It’s the standard sort of commentary you get from journos, especially at this point in the election cycle. Listen to ABC journos/Katharine Murphy/Bongiorno – they all push the “too close to call” narrative in one form of another.

    Partly I suspect that’s about self-preservation: going out on a limb to suggest one party is distinctly more likely to win than the other could come back to bite them – especially with the 2019 result still fresh in the memory. “Too close to call” is a story for all seasons.

    Also the media makes $ from politics as entertainment, especially around election time. An election story is the best entertainment if the overarching narrative is that it’s a nail biter.

  43. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Another huge Patrol!

    Coalition disunity and revived questions about Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s character more than blunted the appeal of last week’s generous budget, according to the latest Roy Morgan poll released on Tuesday. James Robertson reports that the poll, conducted while Mr Morrison faces accusations of bullying and racism, shows Labor extending its lead in the past week on a two-party preferred basis by 1.5 percentage points to 57 per cent to 43 per cent.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/04/05/roy-morgan-poll-morrison-towke/
    David Crowe takes us through the entrails of the Resolve Political Monitor shows some promising indications for Labor given the reaction to the budget.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-vote-rises-despite-broad-support-for-budget-ahead-of-election-20220404-p5aaoo.html
    Crowe has two bob each way, saying victory within Albanese’s grasp but Morrison still in the race.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victory-within-albanese-s-grasp-but-morrison-still-in-the-race-20220404-p5aaoy.html
    Only a quarter of Guardian Essential respondents think the Morrison government’s cash splash budget is good for them personally, and just over half (56%) think the budget’s primary purpose is to help the Coalition win the coming election. The new poll findings come as shadow treasurer, Jim Chalmers, sharpens Labor’s criticism of last week’s budget as “self-obsessed, short-term, and out-of-touch with reality”, warning that sticking to the status quo will entrench a “wasted decade” of lost economic opportunities, explain Katherine Murphy and Sarah Martin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/05/poll-coalition-cash-splash-leaves-voters-cold-as-just-a-quarter-say-budget-will-be-good-for-them
    According to Shane Wright, Labor will go into the election campaign linking any increase in mortgage interest rates to the federal budget and blowouts in government spending, with shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers warning the Coalition is risking the financial security of heavily indebted households.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/attack-turns-to-2007-as-labor-ramps-up-interest-rate-risk-from-budget-20220404-p5aajg.html
    Paul Bongiorno says that small targets and big deficits have the government in a very hard place.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/04/05/paul-bongiorno-small-target-big-deficit-aged-care/
    Labor has strengthened its bid for the small business vote, promising a plan to require invoices are paid within 30 days to benefit 2.4 million firms.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-to-require-small-business-invoices-be-paid-in-30-days-20220404-p5aaoa
    Jess Irvine describes rent assistance as the ticking time bomb threatening future prime ministers. She takes Morrison to task, saying investors took out another $10.75 billion of housing loans on top of the $4.84 billion for first home buyers – more than twice the rate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rent-assistance-the-ticking-time-bomb-threatening-future-prime-ministers-20220404-p5aaj5.html
    How badly did Jason Falinski maul and distort the housing inquiry he chaired at our expense? So badly the secretariat took their names off the final report. In Parliament House public-servant-speak, that’s about as strong a condemnation as you can get short of a career-ending burning of the document in the forecourt, exclaims Michael Pascoe.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/04/05/michael-pascoe-housing-catastrophe-worsens-falinski-failure/
    The politics of a cliffhanger. The independents may have the final say in deciding who takes government in the event of an inconclusive result in the 2022 election. They’ll have to make up their minds, or the Queen’s man will be the kingmaker, writes Mark Sawyer.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/where-will-independents-preferences-go-coalition-or-labor/
    Lisa Visentin tells us how Michael Towke has doubled down on Morrison and his “lying and racism”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-accused-of-lying-about-denials-he-used-race-in-bid-for-seat-20220404-p5aakc.html
    Meanwhile, to add to the narrative, another senior Liberal has taken aim at Scott Morrison, accusing him of “self-serving ruthless bullying” and claiming he has “ruined” the Liberal party. Catherine Cusack, a NSW Liberal who announced two weeks ago she would resign from the Legislative Council over her anger about flood relief, adds her voice to a growing chorus of critics of Morrison from within his own party.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/04/liberal-mp-catherine-cusack-scott-morrison-ruthless-bullying-flood-victims
    Here is Cusack’s op-ed in which she has blasted Morrison. Square in the goolies!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/04/im-a-liberal-and-i-cannot-vote-for-the-re-election-of-a-scott-morrison-government
    Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells must resign herself to being dropped from Scott Morrison’s Christmas card list for a long time. And she must bear, with as much fortitude as she can muster, the vituperation of former colleagues who reproach her, probably wrongly, for their fate at the May election. Her farewell senate performance may be seen as raw treachery, revenge, or a belated penance for finding herself in bad company, writes Jack Waterford.
    https://johnmenadue.com/concetta-tips-bucket-over-morrison-a-leader-she-despises/
    Nothing foreshadows a federal election like a stampede of friendly appointments by a government getting its house in order in the dying days of its parliamentary term – just in case it doesn’t crawl back into power come polling day, write Angus Thompson and Stephen Brook. They say, simply put, the cavalcade of names – more than 120 in the past fortnight – looked nothing less that a Liberal Party Christmas card list, and even includes a recently departed NSW government minister. Here we go again!!!!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/goward-heads-list-of-libs-picked-for-tribunal-gigs-20220404-p5aarj.html
    John Kehoe writes that business leaders have expressed frustration about the “zero mandate” election, urging political parties to lift their ambitions to deliver long-term prosperity for Australians.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-a-zero-mandate-election-won-t-lock-in-prosperity-20220404-p5aao5
    According to Tom Burton, shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers will use his response to the federal budget at the NPC today to play down expectations about how quickly the economic challenges identified by Labor can be reversed. In doing so, he will indicate that Labor, like the government, will end the petrol excise cut in September as scheduled, rather than extend it, meaning petrol is likely to rise by 22¢ a litre then.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-will-not-extend-fuel-excise-cut-past-september-20220405-p5aau5
    And business leaders are calling on whoever wins government to urgently resurrect the dying collective bargaining system to allow for the productivity that underpins higher wages, and are willing to negotiate safeguards with unions if necessary.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/a-disaster-ceos-want-urgent-bargaining-fix-to-restart-wage-growth-20220404-p5aanr
    Grace Tame speaks up about the demise of media integrity and why the exploitation of Labor Senator Kimberley Kitching is not in the public interest.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/grace-tame-exploitative-media,16227
    Jacqui reveals that the federal government, led by Attorney-General Michaelia Cash, demanded to keep secret the amount paid out to the sexual harassment victims of former High Court judge Dyson Heydon.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-behind-secrecy-clause-in-payout-to-dyson-heydon-s-alleged-victims-20220404-p5aamr.html
    There is less to Australia’s jobless situation than the Coalition and the craven mainstream media want us to believe, as Alan Austin reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrison-and-frydenbergs-only-economic-success-isnt-even-true,16224
    Health advocates have welcomed the elevation of aged care as a headline issue early in the federal election campaign, backing Labor’s policy pledges but warning that changes could have “unintended consequences” without further consultation. One leading aged care voice has challenged both major parties to outline exactly how they plan to fund the sector against the backdrop of an ageing Australian population, claiming current rules would see the pay of nursing home staff go backwards this year.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/05/aged-care-sector-calls-for-funding-detail-on-election-commitments
    On Saturday 2 February 2022, the Federal Member for Whitlam, Mr Stephen Jones MP, posed this question to the Prime Minister Mr Morrison on social media: “Does Scott Morrison really want to go to this election arguing that we can’t afford to feed and care for our grandparents?” Michael Springer writes that it is a pertinent question for Mr Jones to put to the Prime Minister, because the only response we have heard from the Federal Government regarding the Labor Party’s Aged Care policy initiative has been the feeble, indeed risible, response of “we can’t afford it”,
    https://theaimn.com/are-you-really-arguing-we-cant-feed-and-care-for-our-grandparents/
    Dana Daniel writes that, in parliament last week, Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar and Senator Hume referred to a $10 reduction in the price of PBS medicines for all Australians, but this was not in the budget and these references mysteriously disappeared from Hansard. Now Financial Services Minister Jane Hume’s office has admitted it asked Hansard staff to delete the references from the record.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mystery-shrouds-hansard-change-to-hide-budget-s-missing-10-drug-price-cut-20220404-p5aaqd.html
    The goal of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees is no longer likely to be achieved, the latest report of the United Nations chief climate body says, though scientists still believe warming may be stabilised and returned under the Paris Agreement’s more ambitious warming target after a period of “overshoot”. Mike Foley reports that the IPCC head says governments and companies had lied to people about their commitments to reducing emissions, and that though the world needed to see a 45 per cent reduction in emissions by the end of the decade the world was on track for a 14 per cent increase.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/goal-of-holding-global-warming-to-1-5-degrees-no-longer-plausible-20220404-p5aaso.html
    Researcher in urban sustainability science and policy, Xuemei Bai, tells us what Australian cities can do to pull their weight on global warming.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/what-australian-cities-can-do-to-pull-their-weight-on-global-warming-20220404-p5aajl.html
    Elizabeth Redman writes that thousands of city dwellers have made a move to the country or coast since the pandemic hit, and in the most popular destinations, house prices have jumped.
    https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/how-much-it-costs-to-live-in-fastest-growing-tree-change-hotspots-20220402-p5aabh.html
    Melbourne writer and barista, Jamileh Hargreaves, begins this contribution with, “ I’ve been a barista in Melbourne since 2011, long enough to know that in hospitality our wages are constantly being suppressed. Wage theft has shaped this industry. And every year, no matter whether it’s a boom or recession, the employers’ association demands a wage freeze. Without fail.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/7-coffee-wake-up-and-smell-the-scare-campaign-20220331-p5a9ko.html
    Australian fighter jets and naval vessels will be armed sooner with new long-range strike missiles to hold enemies at bay at ranges of up to 900km, under a $3.5bn commitment, reports Ben Packham. Can we hear the cry, “How are we going t pay for them?”
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/defence-minister-peter-dutton-puts-new-strike-force-on-fast-track/news-story/bbad2aea8981c344033f9f0881188f97
    Catherine Bennett says that the new independent inquiry must look at whether our COVID choices were cost-effective or not.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/new-inquiry-must-look-at-whether-our-covid-choices-were-cost-effective-20220404-p5aamz.html
    And te SMH editorial says that it’s high time we looked at what went wrong, and right, with our COVID response.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-high-time-we-looked-at-what-went-wrong-and-right-with-our-covid-response-20220403-p5aago.html
    The Parramatta Catholic diocese is under investigation by the NSW government over allegations it used school funds to buy parish properties, a parliamentary hearing has been told. St Madeleine’s Primary School in Kenthurst is at risk of losing government funding after an independent committee recommended the education minister declare that it is operating for profit due to the purchases. Top effort!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/parramatta-diocese-accused-of-using-school-funds-to-buy-church-properties-20220404-p5aapy.html
    A Melbourne financial planner who sneaked into Western Australia to watch the AFL grand final has been banned by ASIC from working in his profession for 10 years.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/lacks-integrity-asic-bans-afl-grand-final-border-breacher-from-working-20220404-p5aar5.html
    “Weak leadership” of Australia’s SAS “let down” Ben Roberts-Smith and members of his patrol by failing to investigate allegations of war crimes and allowing the rumours to circulate publicly, the federal court has heard. Ben Doherty reports that a former SAS corporal, anonymised before the court as Person 31, told the court in evidence on Monday he was concerned enough by allegations he heard from Robert-Smith’s own patrol members that he confronted the Victoria Cross winner about them.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/04/ben-roberts-smith-and-patrol-let-down-by-weak-leadership-in-sas-court-hears
    Premier Daniel Andrews’ key conduit to Melbourne’s Indian community, bottle shop owner Luckee Kohli, secured a $1 million state government grant for a Sikh temple with which he had previously been closely involved.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/trouble-at-the-temple-premier-s-ally-caught-up-in-land-sale-dispute-20220401-p5aa3e.html
    While Russia is like a hurricane, striking hard and fast, China is staking its territorial gains carefully, gradually, and systematically, explains Peter Hartcher.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/while-putin-s-hurricane-rages-xi-calculates-20220404-p5aajk.html
    The London Telegraph’s Ben Marlow says that the West must wage total economic war against Putin. He urges the West needs to leap into action, pressing home its advantage with a new round of sanctions that completely devastate the Russian economy, starting with a full energy embargo. Without that sanctions will ultimately fail.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-west-must-wage-total-economic-war-against-putin-20220404-p5aai8.html
    We think it can’t get worse, then it does. Scott Morrison mocks the idea of talking to the new Chinese Ambassador, at least not until China agrees to have dialogue with Australian government ministers, laments Colin Mackerras.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-chinese-seem-to-have-given-up-on-morrison/
    Joe Biden has called for Vladimir Putin to face a war crimes trial after alleged atrocities emerged near Kyiv.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/global-condemnation-of-russia-after-mass-grave-discovery-genocide-20220405-p5aat9.html
    The House select committee investigating the January 6 Capitol attack is moving to capitalize on new momentum as it embarks on its final push to complete the roughly one hundred remaining depositions and conclude the evidence-gathering phase of the inquiry. The panel has scored two major wins in recent days: more than six hours of testimony from Donald Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, and a conclusion by a federal judge that the former president likely committed felonies to overturn the 2020 election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/04/capitol-attack-panel-inches-closer-to-trump-inner-circle
    Greensill Capital’s biggest insurer, Tokio Marine, has alleged the collapsed firm acted “fraudulently” by failing to disclose material information required for insurance and that it will not pay out on policies it inked for the supply chain finance group.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/greensill-capital-hit-with-fraud-allegations-by-tokio-marine-20220404-p5aaq5
    A child abuse survivor awarded the nation’s highest civil damages payout has been denied one cent after his wealthy perpetrator ­divested assets worth millions of dollars to family and friends. On the strength of this, John Wayne Millwood, has been nominated for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/pedophile-disperses-fortune-to-thwart-victim/news-story/af0081402f1a8b8402ad34d69f8afe55

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

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    From the US













  44. I’d love to see which CPG hacks actually predicted Kevin Rudd’s win, this far out from the election in 2007. I suspect it would not have been many.

  45. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:00 am
    Resolve also has a counter intuitive Queensland set of primaries..

    ”

    It is hard to believe that Greens 14% vote in QLD. It is even harder to believe that ALP & LNP PV are same.

  46. Henry,

    Reed’s comments are based on the last Election.

    Morrison coming from behind et al.

    Doesn’t take in to account that different time and different situation means things are actually different this time.

  48. In France at the moment, I am seeing the horrific footage of the civilian massacre in Bucha 24/7. I feel it is like watching the SS and Gestapo atrocities in real time. The Europeans are gobsmacked and outraged that this can happen in 2022, and are showing pretty graphic footage.

    A link that is probably not as graphic: https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/04/05/russia-war-crimes-in-ukraine/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220405_with%20Tag

    We were talking last weekend about visiting Oradour-sur-Glane, the site of one of the worst Waffen-SS massacres in France. It is about 150 km from here. And to see similar things, involving similar number of people on the TV screen in 2022 is just beyond belief.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oradour-sur-Glane

  49. If the MSM keep saying “it is too close to call” based on a 53/47 or 54/46 result currently and the voters have effectively made up their minds about Morrison, won’t that make those who are on the fence just decide well I certainly don’t want any chance of Morrison winning so I go with the alternative (whether it be ALP/Greens or Indies) and make the margin bigger?

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