The post-budget polling bonanza continues to unfold, our first item of business being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian. On voting intention, the poll finds the Coalition primary vote steady on 37%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, One Nation up one to 4% and the United Australia Party up one to 3%. A lower undecided rate and a stronger flow of preferences to Labor causes the gap to widen on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition up one to 45%, with 5% undecided.
The poll suggested the budget had received a lukewarm response, with 25% saying it had made them more likely to vote Coalition and 19% less so. Twenty-five per cent said it would be good for them personally, 33% rated that its inducements would make a significant difference to them, and 56% believed the budget’s main purpose was to help the Coalition win the election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086 – more comprehensive results will be along with the publication of the full report later today.
UPDATE: Full results here. Also out today is the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, showing Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%, and a Roy Morgan poll with Labor leading 57-43, which I’ll cover in a new post overnight.
Also out today from The Australian is the regular annual Newspoll results on response to the budget. Here too the results are not as strong as the government might have hoped, the clearest indication of which is the finding that 40% thought the opposition would do a better job with 42% thinking otherwise. As shown in the chart below, this is the weakest result on this question since the Coalition came to power, and the third weakest for any government since the inception of the series all the way back in 1988. While quite a few other results are within its margin of error, all were notably recorded by governments in their last terms before losing office.
The poll nonetheless found that 26% of respondents felt the budget would be good for them personally compared with 25% who thought the opposite and 49% who opted for neither, the net positive rating of 1% being the ninth best result out of the 35. However, the respective results of 33%, 23% and 44% for impact on the economy were relatively poor, with the net positive 10% rating being the worst since the Abbott government’s politically disastrous debut budget in 2014 and the eighth worst overall.
The following chart shows the relationship between the net results on personal and economic impact going back to 1988, with the current budget shown in red. Its position below the trendline is consistent with a budget that was perceived as prioritising votes over the economy – a budget received favourably enough to score a near net zero result on personal impact would typically land at around plus 25% for economic impact, rather than plus 10%.
Also out today courtesy of the Financial Review are state breakdowns from yesterday’s Ipsos poll. Given the poll’s large sample size of 2510, these results are quite robust for New South Wales (sample size 818), Victoria (644) and to some extent Queensland (514). Not much should be read into the results for the smaller states, although I’m actually quite pleased that the paper has gone so far as to provide the results for Tasmania and even the Australian Capital Territory (the Northern Territory is rolled together with South Australia), while making it clear that the error margins in these cases are in the order of 15%.
At the business end, the poll finds Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales (a swing of around 5% with an error margin of 3.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (swing of 3%, error margin of 4.1%) and 54-46 in Queensland (swing of 12.5%, error margin of 4.4%). From here on, proceed with caution: 54-46 in Western Australia (sample of 251, error margin of 6.5%), 62-38 in South Australia/Northern Territory (sample of 186, error margin of 7.3%), 64-36 in Tasmania (sample of 54, error margin of 14.0%) and 57-43 in the ACT (sample of 43, error margin of 15.3%).
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Felix the Cassowarysays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:45 pm
Rex Douglas:
> I think a lot of teal voters wanted to give Malcolm a chance, but he burnt them.
>
> Now, it’s the rise of the Independents.
I don’t think Malcolm burnt them, and I don’t think they see it that way. It’s the Liberal party that burnt them. During both of his times as leader of the Liberal party, Turnbull gave every indication that he genuinely wanted to address climate change as far as he could. If it was simply a matter of a prime minister that betrayed them, these are loyal seats. They will be able to comfortably return a Liberal member who has the right opinions, and understand the benefits of having a climate change voice in the party room. But they’re seeing that the Liberal party as a whole is no longer willing to address the concerns of the members they return.
This isn’t just a case of a rural seat returning an independent because of a dodgy preselection. It’s a movement affecting several seats simultaneously, and selectively taking out local Liberal members who are more inclined to action – the opposite of what you’d expect if was just a matter of a few bad apples that can be taken out and set aside. The whole bunch have gone bad now, and even the good ones are getting replaced.
”
Collateral damage.
It happens to ALP a lot of times.
This will be first time if it happens to Libs.
sprocket_ at 7:43 pm
Sounds familiar . Ah yes, L’État, c’est moi . That quote probably more reflects SfM’s opinion.
Taylormade and Mavis – best wishes to you both for a speedy and easy recovery. Those of us who haven’t yet danced with the virus are on borrowed time I’m sure. Take care
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Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:55 pm
Ven would you correct someone who mispronounced your surname or would you let it slide?
”
Yes I would help them in saying it correctly with correct syllables. But if they say ‘ mate can I call you by your first name because your surname is difficult to pronounce for me, I said ‘sure’.
I thought Sales was fine, good interview.
She got in the talking points, reinforced the perception that he is a bully who his own colleagues dislike and let him waffle on nonsensically, his questions often bearing no relevance to the question. My neutral partner said, “this guy is a nut”.
Leigh nailed him at the end with his shit eating grin about being “happy to appear on the EBC {yeah he said EBC}” whilst not committing to two interviews.
EBC – Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation?
Mavis! Say it ain’t so! You have enough on your plate already. Just get well soon, okay!?!
Even you, Taylormade. You are our inside running on Liberal thought. 🙂
It’s almost like the strategy is to be portrayed by the anti Lib MSM and social media as a complete incompetent arseache and throw yourself on the mercy of the rest of the community about how unfair his media coverage is.
And, with all this talk about Covid, as I have sat here today sneezing, sleeping and coughing, I have just done my own RAT and it was negative. Which I thought it would be after my son’s RAT was Negative the other day.
From The Oz
“The Australian Christian Lobby is launching a campaign that could unseat key Liberal rebels who crossed the floor to support Labor in killing off the religious freedom bill.”
The Libs just can’t get enough of this internecine warfare. This is politics kamikaze style, blue-on-blue political suicide bombers. A party that can’t govern itself ……..
So what were Morrison’s main talking points, which we should expect to form the basis of his election campaign?
Ven:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:54 pm
[‘Weird. I never heard so many false positives before.
Get your chronic condition under control.’]
It is weird but that’s how it happened. All’s good with the chronic condition – thanks.
____________________________________
Griff:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:58 pm
[‘Fair enough. Keep up the N95 masks as well of course and fingers crossed!’]
I don’t leave home without one, even though they’re no longer mandated in Queensland.
____________________________________
For a Tory, I find Gutwein most impressive. My respect for him grew when he admitted he was touched up as a youngster.
That took a lot of guts and may result in others coming forward. It’s also apparent that he has no love for Morrison & may not go on the hustings for the member for Bass, which has a buffer of 0.4%; likewise, Braddon (3.1%).
Cronus @ #660 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 8:16 pm
They do realise this will scare more right-thinking people over to Labor, don’t they?
Labor can just sit back and watch the Libs implode.
Albanese has done Morrison slowly, but he will now be returned to dust from within his ranks.
A good comment on ScoMo’s interview style..
You can’t interview him, he’s the greatest gish galloper ever! When asked a question, by the time he’s finished his answer,you’ve forgotten the question. Eg. Asked about why so many colleagues don’t like him, by the time he’d finished he said “you asked how my Gov was performing”
Rex Douglas @ #664 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 8:19 pm
Very likely true. Just for once, the boot is on the other foot. But doesn’t it disturb anyone else that this election looks like yet another one being fought entirely on personalities and factional infighting rather than on policies and a vision for the future of Australia?
It certainly disturbs me 🙁
C@tmomma:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:14 pm
[‘Mavis! Say it ain’t so! You have enough on your plate already. Just get well soon, okay!?!’]
Thanks, cat. I’m fine now. And good to learn your test was negative.
Risky ‘win’ for Scrotty in the court over the NSW pre-selections. He can’t blame others now if his hand picks don’t get up.
Player One @ #666 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 8:24 pm
It’s probably why polling has the Independents/Greens on 20% of the vote and growing…
C@T
If I didn’t know better I’d say internal polling has told them it’s all over so the fighting and bloodletting is all about future control of the party. Wacky as that seems, nothing else makes any better sense. I’m literally bewildered by their ongoing and very public internal strife. There is some serious ideological hatred going on in there.
what were the seats in dispute?….lets see which ones won’t/might not get up
Leigh Sales did ok. Didn’t get into her personal views, didn’t get tetchy or flustered, followed up fairly well not with a rote preconceived approach. Let’s see if Albanesee gets similar direct but polite interviews.
max:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:07 pm
[‘Taylormade and Mavis – best wishes to you both for a speedy and easy recovery. Those of us who haven’t yet danced with the virus are on borrowed time I’m sure. Take care’]
Thanks. But just to clarify it, my PCR test result was negative.
Best wishes to Taylormade.
Two positive RATs and a negative PCR means it’s most likely you have Covid. Only way to tell for sure is an IgM blood test.
Boothby poll 57-43 to Labor which is totally unsurprising.
Sturt 52-48 to Labor.
Bare minimum of one seat loss to Libs in SA.
sprocket @ 8.21
Where did that comment come from? I thought that was a classic when Morrison told Sales she’d asked a different question.
JM
It has the potential to be a pyrrhic victory if after all this, Lib members don’t get out to support the Captain’s picks, in anger at being steamrolled and ignored.
It does have a sense of 2007 about it. All sorts of own goals were happening then.
Diogenes. Where are your Boothby Sturt figures from?
Diogenes….where is that poll from?
The polls to which Diogenes refers are reported in The Advertiser. They are “by” the Australia Institute, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were actually conducted by uComms.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/new-poll-shows-labor-storming-ahead-on-boothby-narrow-lead-in-sturt/news-story/d2e2919c4966126c36ac1ee9c355976a
Pointless to engage with P1…
I will not, however, allow an accusation that Labor have no ‘vision’ to slip by unchecked.
Albanese has used budget reply speeches to articulate a vision for a fairer Australia that acts on climate change, by expanding child care support, rewiring the grid to support local renewables, investment in public housing and TAFE etc etc.
All the best to anybody with the Lurgi.
I am still wearing a P2/N95 mask when out, even though not generally mandated here any more.
Masks are still required in “high risk” settings, like clinics/hospitals, aged and disability care homes, etc. But less than 1% of people are wearing them now outside those settings.
Cronus @ #676 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 8:02 pm
Indeed. Hard to see the upside for him.
So the Liberal Democrats managing to run as the Liberal Democrats could be critical in some of the senate elections. If they land an early position on the ballot they could grab quite a few votes from confused Liberal voters who then go on preference other parties before they notice the stuff up.
Oddly when they landed the position A in NSW in 2013 and got 9.5%, it kept the Greens out of the final position but also the One Nation vote was only 1.2% despite having Pauline Hanson on the ticket (they had the final position).
Look forward to seeing Morrison in Adelaide campaigning in Boothby and Sturt.
If there are tickets I might buy one.
It seems he’s not wanted in Sydney marginals, he has announced everything he can in WA. Though his mate Morton in Tangney, who has put more stuff in my mailbox in the last month I think than he has in the previous two elections, will no doubt be pleased to see him.
Anyone else hearing the Christopher Pyne and Tim Wilson allegations made by Friendlyjordies?
ScoMo almost got through the interview without his trademark idiocy – couldn’t help himself
https://twitter.com/sarkysage/status/1511283478532218881?s=21&t=LdXvXw2LM7_7wXHhbawPcw
Now on Day 5 of the infection.
Day 1 when I did the RAT and was positive was the worst – chills, fever, sweat, throat.
All symptoms have now gone but still isolating.
In Boothby, Dr Swift (Lib) has an excellent resume (Rhodes scholar, worked for UN, Doctor of Public Health and international business experience) so they tried very hard to win.
Miller-Frost (Lab) is also very impressive in managing the NFP sector. Her last job was CEO of St Vinnies and she’s very outspoken.
Jo Dwyer (Indie) was a good friend of Kate Thornton so that’s not going to help the Libs one little bit.
When I’m struggling to walk up and down hilly streets with my arthritic legs and my gay overweight dog sticking Labor propaganda in people’s letterboxes I remind myself of the smirkathon SfM has subjected us too, that smug, arrogant born to rule face – that fires me up for another block or two and I come to an OH who tells me I’m bonkers doing this chit at my age. That tells me I am doing the right thing. She makes me a brew and hands me some pain killers. Gotta love this life !! Fuck u Scomo.
somethinglikethat @ #686 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 8:49 pm
This one?
https://youtu.be/X55baVi4p4Y
‘somethinglikethat says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:49 pm
Anyone else hearing the Christopher Pyne and Tim Wilson allegations made by Friendlyjordies?’
————————————————
…accompanied, I believe, by text stating that there was no confirmation or evidence. Much as I despise both of them they are entitled to… yada, yada, yada.
Mavis
I have just caught up. Best wishes for a speedy recovery.
[‘The High Court will be asked to make the final decision on an extraordinary legal challenge to the validity of Liberal Party preselections on the eve of Prime Minister Scott Morrison calling the election, after a NSW court threw out the case on Tuesday.
Sources close to the challenger, NSW Liberal Party state executive member Matthew Camenzuli, said an application for special leave to appeal to the High Court was being prepared and would be lodged on Wednesday. However, the court is not bound to hear the appeal.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/path-to-election-cleared-as-pm-wins-court-case-over-preselections-20220405-p5ab0p.html
This could break the bank of the NSW Tories. He won’t succeed with his application for special leave, though he’s doing Labor a favour. Kiefel was quite clear when she sent the matter to the NSW Court of Appeal.
I’m waiting for some person interviewing Morrison to do a reprise of the Question that Richard Carlton asked Bob Hawke after he rolled Hayden*:
“Do you have blood on your hands?”
—————-
* Hope I have the names correct.
Can confirm the Australia Institute polls were by uComms.
Boerwar:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:56 pm
[‘Mavis
I have just caught up. Best wishes for a speedy recovery.’]
Thanks, Boerwar. All’s now good.
Dio
If I may. I have been trying to persuade a friend not to try and catch covid. Age is 70ish. Has COPD. He is trying to catch it by hugging a person who has it. Is triple vaxxed.
Is there anything I can see beyond the usual? It is quite distressing.
somethinglikethat @ #687 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 8:49 pm
I watched it earlier tonight.Going by the Dutton story earlier onFJ mainstream media will run a mile from it.
@somethinglikethat
Yes, people were talking about it here yesterday. I haven’t watched the video – sounds maybe a bit homophobic though?
People have made the point that a lot of sex workers have been through parliament house, and just singling out the gay men who may or may not have done it is maybe not entirely fair. On that note, is C Pyne out of the closet? I thought he was married to a woman. Not that that necessarily proves anything.
Expat, I’m not interested in the sexuality of parliamentarians. I am however incensed by Morrison’s religious ‘holier than thou’ act, when it’s all a sham.