The post-budget polling bonanza continues to unfold, our first item of business being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian. On voting intention, the poll finds the Coalition primary vote steady on 37%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, One Nation up one to 4% and the United Australia Party up one to 3%. A lower undecided rate and a stronger flow of preferences to Labor causes the gap to widen on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition up one to 45%, with 5% undecided.
The poll suggested the budget had received a lukewarm response, with 25% saying it had made them more likely to vote Coalition and 19% less so. Twenty-five per cent said it would be good for them personally, 33% rated that its inducements would make a significant difference to them, and 56% believed the budget’s main purpose was to help the Coalition win the election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086 – more comprehensive results will be along with the publication of the full report later today.
UPDATE: Full results here. Also out today is the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, showing Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%, and a Roy Morgan poll with Labor leading 57-43, which I’ll cover in a new post overnight.
Also out today from The Australian is the regular annual Newspoll results on response to the budget. Here too the results are not as strong as the government might have hoped, the clearest indication of which is the finding that 40% thought the opposition would do a better job with 42% thinking otherwise. As shown in the chart below, this is the weakest result on this question since the Coalition came to power, and the third weakest for any government since the inception of the series all the way back in 1988. While quite a few other results are within its margin of error, all were notably recorded by governments in their last terms before losing office.
The poll nonetheless found that 26% of respondents felt the budget would be good for them personally compared with 25% who thought the opposite and 49% who opted for neither, the net positive rating of 1% being the ninth best result out of the 35. However, the respective results of 33%, 23% and 44% for impact on the economy were relatively poor, with the net positive 10% rating being the worst since the Abbott government’s politically disastrous debut budget in 2014 and the eighth worst overall.
The following chart shows the relationship between the net results on personal and economic impact going back to 1988, with the current budget shown in red. Its position below the trendline is consistent with a budget that was perceived as prioritising votes over the economy – a budget received favourably enough to score a near net zero result on personal impact would typically land at around plus 25% for economic impact, rather than plus 10%.
Also out today courtesy of the Financial Review are state breakdowns from yesterday’s Ipsos poll. Given the poll’s large sample size of 2510, these results are quite robust for New South Wales (sample size 818), Victoria (644) and to some extent Queensland (514). Not much should be read into the results for the smaller states, although I’m actually quite pleased that the paper has gone so far as to provide the results for Tasmania and even the Australian Capital Territory (the Northern Territory is rolled together with South Australia), while making it clear that the error margins in these cases are in the order of 15%.
At the business end, the poll finds Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales (a swing of around 5% with an error margin of 3.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (swing of 3%, error margin of 4.1%) and 54-46 in Queensland (swing of 12.5%, error margin of 4.4%). From here on, proceed with caution: 54-46 in Western Australia (sample of 251, error margin of 6.5%), 62-38 in South Australia/Northern Territory (sample of 186, error margin of 7.3%), 64-36 in Tasmania (sample of 54, error margin of 14.0%) and 57-43 in the ACT (sample of 43, error margin of 15.3%).
Richo in Murdoch’s Oz:
Much thanks, nath.
Best wishes Taylormade and Mavis – get well soon.
Watching 7.30 Report – starting off with inside the beltway Hansard changes
Many channel changes occuring
Pre-recorded Sales with ScoMo – so the bloopers can be edited out
ScoMo starts off with his stump speech.
Question was “Why doesn’t your own side like you?”
Can someone tell me if Leigh asks question not on her clipboard or does a follow up question when given a bullsh*t answer
Second answer is part 2 of the stump speech
Mavis @ Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:24 pm
Unfortunately you are very special. See:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788067
As you can see, the false positive rate for a RAT is very low. Were the RAT tests from different brands or batches? If so, another possibility is that the two PCR tests provided false negatives and you do in fact have COVID.
I’m guessing ScoMo will holiday in Hawaii in June?
Already this 7:30 interview is a waste of time!
Q: Why don’t your own people like you?
A: stump speech
Youse where all spoiled by Red Kerry’s special interviewing technique.
Why did you demonstrate bastardry over NSW preselections?
A: Wanted good women in their seats.
You’ve got to wonder why the NSW Tories went to court given there’s
clear precedent that courts are loathe to get involved in party political spats. The only plus coming from it is that those affected will most likely not be keen on assisting Morrison on election day.
Now ScoMo justifying his bastardry.
Now going into ethnic background of his Captain’s picks
Sales is getting shitty with him!
Leigh Sales actually doing ok, calling out ScoMo’s bullshit
I am the Party – ScoMo
People ‘lash out’ – smirking whilst he patronises the Liberal women dropping bully accusations
Rex Douglas:
> I think a lot of teal voters wanted to give Malcolm a chance, but he burnt them.
>
> Now, it’s the rise of the Independents.
I don’t think Malcolm burnt them, and I don’t think they see it that way. It’s the Liberal party that burnt them. During both of his times as leader of the Liberal party, Turnbull gave every indication that he genuinely wanted to address climate change as far as he could. If it was simply a matter of a prime minister that betrayed them, these are loyal seats. They will be able to comfortably return a Liberal member who has the right opinions, and understand the benefits of having a climate change voice in the party room. But they’re seeing that the Liberal party as a whole is no longer willing to address the concerns of the members they return.
This isn’t just a case of a rural seat returning an independent because of a dodgy preselection. It’s a movement affecting several seats simultaneously, and selectively taking out local Liberal members who are more inclined to action – the opposite of what you’d expect if was just a matter of a few bad apples that can be taken out and set aside. The whole bunch have gone bad now, and even the good ones are getting replaced.
The Turnbull term and exit was, of course, significant, because it showed everyone who the Liberals are now. The message taken from it, though, isn’t “Turnbull can’t be trusted”, but “People like Turnbull don’t belong in the Liberal party any more, and so if you’re someone like Turnbull who wants to be trusted, better to stay out”.
ScoMo now talking over Sales – bullying mansplaining
Player One says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 5:56 pm
You really are a devoted Labor-hater. The less Labor listen to you the better will it go for them. Very fortunately for the rest of us, you’ll only be entitled to one vote.
You disgraced yourself in relation to Kristina Keneally. You’ve disgraced yourself today in relation to Albo.
You are scum. Utter scum.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:23 pm
I think ven you should insist people make the effort to pronounce your surname correctly. It’s a common courtesy – not something you should feel ashamed of.
”
I am not ashamed of my surname and never was and I am proud of it. It is just a fact that Australians prefer easy surnames and are used to surnames like Smith, Jones etc.
ScoMo coming closer to his true belief – my way or the Highway
Now dancing on the head of the pin on his bastardry withholding flood payments
Look at my Facebook feed – people criticise me all the time.
Now criticise NSW slow payments
“That is not true PM”
Or
“That is a lovely advert PM, your writers should be proud, but it is not an answer to the question.”
Or
“Well may you want to move on / brush past but those of us with a basic grasp of ethics and standards would like to inform the public.”
briefly’s gone troppo again…
Brian Houston question, why disown him?
A: I haven’t spoken to him
Back onto stump speech
You’ve never had it so good – ScoMo
Reciting his announcements
ScoMo could talk under wet cement
You have to give it to ScoMo, he could make a shit sandwich sound like chateaubriand.
And he’s just told Leigh Sales she can go whistle for another interview before the election.
ScoMo now pouring shit on the ABC 7.30 report – refuses to say whether he will appear on it twice during the election campaign
Says it with a smirk
Thoughts on Leigh? Too hard ? Too soft?
Bludging @ #623 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 7:45 pm
I generally cut you a lot of slack, Briefly. But honestly, you represent exactly the kind of thing that is so wrong with Labor. Your unreasoning hatred of anything that doesn’t accord with your narrow Right wing factional views is astonishing. Reasoning with you is completely futile. I honestly don’t know why you bother responding to my posts, but I wish you would stop doing so.
Griff:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:38 pm
Mavis @ Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:24 pm
[‘Unfortunately you are very special. See:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788067'%5D
That’s precisely what the A & E doctor said. And thanks for the link.
[‘As you can see, the false positive rate for a RAT is very low. Were the RAT tests from different brands or batches? If so, another possibility is that the two PCR tests provided false negatives and you do in fact have COVID.’]
I’m unsure whether the hospital’s RATs were the same brand as mine.
I’m pretty confident that I don’t have it though? But as said previously, if I do develop symptoms, I’ll be off to get a PCR.
Piss weak interview or was it a monologue.
Did Morrison remind us he stopped the boats?
”
Mavissays:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:24 pm
I attended A & E on Sunday, not for C.19 but for complications associated with a chronic condition. I did at RAT before
leaving and it was positive. On arrival, I told the staff and was sent to the C.19 ward, where a further RAT confirmed the first.
……..
”
Weird. I never heard so many false positives before.
Get your chronic condition under control.
Ven would you correct someone who mispronounced your surname or would you let it slide?
B.S. Fairman @ Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 6:30 pm
Thanks! The Antony Green post is great reading.
So we have Liberal Democrats apparently tricking some of the electorate that they are Liberals. At the same time we have Liberal MPs attempting to trick the electorate with respect to their Liberal party membership by removing the logo and using teal in their advertising.
Hilarious! You can’t make this up 🙂
What a bloody pig!
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:31 pm
Yup. Whatever way you look at it, the Not-a-Lib /Wanna-Lib plurality is about 2:1. The party that has been ascendant in Australia for most of the time since its formation has become all-but unelectable. Time is about to expire for them. Once in Opposition, they will have time to ask themselves what went wrong. Demonstrably, they stand for nothing beyond their own privileges and prejudices. They’re gonna get the mother of all hidings.
I thought it was pretty fair – LS had a go at him over party disunity, reform etc and let him say his bit. So balanced.
I think Morrison is an uncommonly difficult interview subject because of his frankly outstanding ability to keep smiling and deflect tough questions, while remaining fairly unflappable. Leigh Sales gave it her best shot but couldn’t really penetrate that well-practised routine. The one thing I think Sales could have tried would have been to start out, Richard Carleton-style with something like: “People who know you don’t like you, do they?”
I thought Leigh Sales did surprisingly well. What she brought out was Morrison’s bullying behaviour. She asks the questions and he rolled over her with what he wanted to say, even if he didn’t answer the questions. And the questions were good.
The last one about the interviews on 7.30 were killers and he fell into the trap. His answer was blatantly evasive and she called him out on it.
We are now seeing Mr Slick replaced by Mr Bully. I thought it was a shit interview for him, even though he didn’t attack Labor. And I thought Sales actually brought out his fundamental character defects.
Mavis @ Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:53 pm
Fair enough. Keep up the N95 masks as well of course and fingers crossed!