Budget polling: day two

No real change on voting intention from Essential Research; mediocre budget reaction results from Newspoll; state breakdowns from Ipsos.

The post-budget polling bonanza continues to unfold, our first item of business being the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll courtesy of The Guardian. On voting intention, the poll finds the Coalition primary vote steady on 37%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, One Nation up one to 4% and the United Australia Party up one to 3%. A lower undecided rate and a stronger flow of preferences to Labor causes the gap to widen on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition up one to 45%, with 5% undecided.

The poll suggested the budget had received a lukewarm response, with 25% saying it had made them more likely to vote Coalition and 19% less so. Twenty-five per cent said it would be good for them personally, 33% rated that its inducements would make a significant difference to them, and 56% believed the budget’s main purpose was to help the Coalition win the election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086 – more comprehensive results will be along with the publication of the full report later today.

UPDATE: Full results here. Also out today is the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald, showing Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%, and a Roy Morgan poll with Labor leading 57-43, which I’ll cover in a new post overnight.

Also out today from The Australian is the regular annual Newspoll results on response to the budget. Here too the results are not as strong as the government might have hoped, the clearest indication of which is the finding that 40% thought the opposition would do a better job with 42% thinking otherwise. As shown in the chart below, this is the weakest result on this question since the Coalition came to power, and the third weakest for any government since the inception of the series all the way back in 1988. While quite a few other results are within its margin of error, all were notably recorded by governments in their last terms before losing office.

The poll nonetheless found that 26% of respondents felt the budget would be good for them personally compared with 25% who thought the opposite and 49% who opted for neither, the net positive rating of 1% being the ninth best result out of the 35. However, the respective results of 33%, 23% and 44% for impact on the economy were relatively poor, with the net positive 10% rating being the worst since the Abbott government’s politically disastrous debut budget in 2014 and the eighth worst overall.

The following chart shows the relationship between the net results on personal and economic impact going back to 1988, with the current budget shown in red. Its position below the trendline is consistent with a budget that was perceived as prioritising votes over the economy – a budget received favourably enough to score a near net zero result on personal impact would typically land at around plus 25% for economic impact, rather than plus 10%.

Also out today courtesy of the Financial Review are state breakdowns from yesterday’s Ipsos poll. Given the poll’s large sample size of 2510, these results are quite robust for New South Wales (sample size 818), Victoria (644) and to some extent Queensland (514). Not much should be read into the results for the smaller states, although I’m actually quite pleased that the paper has gone so far as to provide the results for Tasmania and even the Australian Capital Territory (the Northern Territory is rolled together with South Australia), while making it clear that the error margins in these cases are in the order of 15%.

At the business end, the poll finds Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales (a swing of around 5% with an error margin of 3.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (swing of 3%, error margin of 4.1%) and 54-46 in Queensland (swing of 12.5%, error margin of 4.4%). From here on, proceed with caution: 54-46 in Western Australia (sample of 251, error margin of 6.5%), 62-38 in South Australia/Northern Territory (sample of 186, error margin of 7.3%), 64-36 in Tasmania (sample of 54, error margin of 14.0%) and 57-43 in the ACT (sample of 43, error margin of 15.3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

758 comments on “Budget polling: day two”

Comments Page 15 of 16
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  1. Diogenes:

    Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 8:31 pm

    [‘Two positive RATs and a negative PCR means it’s most likely you have Covid. Only way to tell for sure is an IgM blood test.’]

    Thanks. I’ll give it some thought. That’s the main reason why I posted: to elicit responses from others who have some expertise in this area.

  2. So with party unity in the toilet this election campaign is going to be about Scomo, the singular embodiment of the LNP vs The ALP team, lead by Albo but with energetic and photogenic and a fairly united team that can share the load.

    I hope Morrison is up for the stress because 6 weeks can be a long time of early mornings, pressers, flights, photo ops, lunches, dinners 7 days a week.

    If people really are starting to distance themselves from the liberal brand then that may just mean the ALP may see a healthy majority.

    Thanks to god for Rudd, Shorten and Albo and the wider ALP for reforming all the leadership shit in the ALP because it just removes that spectre of doubt that may act as a wedge.

  4. Sandman @ #690 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 8:54 pm

    When I’m struggling to walk up and down hilly streets with my arthritic legs and my gay overweight dog sticking Labor propaganda in people’s letterboxes I remind myself of the smirkathon SfM has subjected us too, that smug, arrogant born to rule face – that fires me up for another block or two and I come to an OH who tells me I’m bonkers doing this chit at my age. That tells me I am doing the right thing. She makes me a brew and hands me some pain killers. Gotta love this life !! Fuck u Scomo.

    Thank you. 🙂

  6. Christopher Pyne’s been copping borderline-homophobic insults and innuendo on PB and elsewhere for years, in a way that would make Twitter explode if it was done to somebody on the left. He might not fit the mould of a traditional man; no facial hair, high-pitched voice, no kids. Doesn’t mean he’s gay. It works in the other direction too – ever heard of bears? (Maybe don’t google that on a work computer.)

    If it turns out Pyne is gay and gets outed when he didn’t want to be, FJ is just as much of an arsehole as the channel 7 journo who camped outside a gay bathhouse in Sydney and destroyed David Campbell’s career. I’m not surprised no major media has touched the story.

  8. Mavis

    Look on the bright side. You have probably had a mild Covid variant asymptomatically and had a free booster. False positives are very rare with two types of RATs and PCR false negatives are much more common. I’d just avoid the immunosuppressed or wear an N95 outside for a week.

    BW
    There is no point in trying to get Covid including Omicron except in very rare circumstances.
    If there is a huge wave of Theta or whatever the next variant is and it’s pretty dangerous and Omicron provides good protection, I’d do it.
    Otherwise no.
    1. Long Covid in 10% is pretty shit
    2. Omicron infection barely protects you from getting Omicron again. About 800,000 people in the UK have had Omicron twice.
    3. Triple vaxxed and with good access to monoclonal antibodies in 70yo with COPD is unlikely to kill you but it isn’t going to help you either.

  9. Bird of paradox,
    No one cares about who CPyne fucks. That wasn’t the point of the video.
    The point of the FJ video is that the AFP is being used for political ends.
    Similar to the NSW anti terror cops.
    We need a Federal ICAC to keep the coppers in line as much as the pollis IMHO.

    Though I should point out that CPyne was no angel in his dealings with Peter Slipper and Ashby whilst in the opposition.

  10. [‘Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he was standing up for the women in his party by imposing his handpicked candidates in several key seats in a decision made just days before he was expected to call the federal election.

    Speaking on the ABC’s 7.30 on Tuesday night, Mr Morrison said Liberal Party factions were trying to take out women candidates, including Environment Minister Sussan Ley, who has been re-endorsed to stand in the seat of Farrer.

    “She was under threat from factions in the Liberal party and I decided to stand up for her,” he told host Leigh Sales.

    “I’m very serious about having great women in my ranks – Fiona Martin’s another,” he said, referring to the MP for Reid.

    “The Prime Minister was standing up to things happening in the party to make sure that quality people who are doing a quality job … should be able to go forward to the next election … I was not getting that outcome.

    “I stood up for the women.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-stood-up-for-women-pm-defends-captain-s-picks-in-federal-seats-20220405-p5ab40.html

    More than enough women have come forward with claims
    that privately Morrison’s such a prig & a bully as to render his latest offering as unadulterated codswallop. I’m off.

  11. The Australian Christian Lobby is launching a campaign that could unseat key Liberal rebels who crossed the floor to support Labor in killing off the ­religious freedom bill.

  14. If it turns out Pyne is gay and gets outed when he didn’t want to be, FJ is just as much of an arsehole as the channel 7 journo who camped outside a gay bathhouse in Sydney and destroyed David Campbell’s career. I’m not surprised no major media has touched the story.

    I guess you never watched the video, because you would know that Pyne being gay or not was completely irrelevant to what FJ was exposing.

  15. Pyne being gay is his business [if he is} but bringing rent boys into the Parliament buildings is a pretty serious allegation.

  17. ACL plan that could unseat floor-crossing liberals?
    Who are planning on replacing them with?
    Labor? Greeens? Christians?
    The first two would be anathema to ACL members and the third ain’t gunna happen.

  18. Whatever their faults the ALP believe in climate change, and action on it, and do have policies to move decarbonisation forward – and its possible they can be pushed/encouraged to up their ambition, using the COP ratchet. The Libs don’t and won’t.

    And the Libs just don’t care about people, the fact that they cavil at the relatively modest cost of addressing the Aged Care debacle says it all. It’s Labors federal equivalent of ramping in SA’s recent election and I think it will be potent in the campaign

    Those are policy differences. People want to know the direction of travel, not necessarily the fine detail especially when there are unknowns. Chalmers made a good speech today, acknowledging interest rates would be rising after the election, and emphasising they’d need to check the books after so much slushy funding, while underlining the priorities set by Albanese in his reply

    If women have been watching the female LNP MPs tear strips, and even Hanson, off Morrison, this could get ugly

  19. Dio: ahh, gotcha. I must have my wires crossed with someone else who copped it for that reason. (It’s a non-issue to me, but there’s some people on the religious right to whom it matters a great deal. Remember Bill Heffernan’s comment about Julia Gillard’s barren fruit bowl?)

    South: it might not be the point he’s trying to make, but if it ends up in the headlines it’ll inevitably be the big story. “Gay sex scandal” sells more copies of the Herald Sun than “Misuse of the AFP”. Sad but rue.

  20. Old man has 8 hair on his head.

    He went to Barber shop.

    Barber in anger asked:

    shall i cut or count ?

    Old man smiled and said:

    “Colour it!”

    LIFE is to enjoy with whatever you have with you, keep smiling

    If you feel STRESSED,

    Give yourself A Break.

    Enjoy Some..

    Icecream
    Choclates
    Candy
    Cake

    Why?
    B’Coz

    STRESSED backwards spelling
    is DESSERTS …enjoy

    Alphabetic advice for you:

    A B C
    Avoid Boring Company..

    D E F
    Don’t Entertain Fools..

    G H I
    Go for High Ideas .

    J K L M
    Just Keep a friend like ME..

    N O P
    Never Overlook the Poor n suffering..

    Q R S
    Quit Reacting to Silly tales..

    T U V
    Tune Urself for ur Victory..

    W X Y Z

    We Xpect You to Zoom ahead in life

    Very ….beautiful lines pls store it.

    ONE Good FRIEND is equal to ONE Good Medicine. . .

    Likewise ONE Good Group is equal to ONE Full medical store…
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    If you see the moon ….. You see the beauty of God …..

    If you see the Sun …..
    You see the power of God ….. And ….

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    We all are tourists & God is our travel agent who has already fixed all our Routes Reservations & Destinations

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    Our aim in life should be
    9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

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    One Life will never come Again. .. .
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    Send to all people who are important to you..

  22. Further to the HH post above

    —
    The Australian Christian Lobby is launching a campaign that could unseat key Liberal rebels who crossed the floor to support Labor in killing off the government’s ­attempt to legislate greater protections for religious freedom.

    The campaign will target Bass, Reid, Wentworth, North Sydney, Higgins and Mayo.

    The Australian Christian Lobby will deploy a “volunteer army” of 7700 to help promote its campaign, to feature on billboards, flyers, robocalls and social media. Over the past three years, it has developed a campaign infrastructure and has 24,906 financial donors and 259,000 members in total.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-australian-christian-lobby-to-take-on-rebel-liberal-mps/news-story/7b5c842a4a2c6af9e6e75e2560f65b83

    Cripes, even the Christian’s are unhappy- these ‘rebels’ like our member for BASS have another headache to deal with.

  23. Sandman

    You’re a champion. 🙂

    subgeometer @ #721 Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 – 9:04 pm

    The minister for Submarines having trade brought in without sign ins is a national security issue.

    This is the real problem. The risk of being compromised and blackmailed.

    Also think some voters will not be too happy about the Prayer Room being used for, um, non-prayer purposes.

  24. “Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:31 pm
    ACL plan that could unseat floor-crossing liberals?
    Who are planning on replacing them with?
    Labor? Greeens? Christians?
    The first two would be anathema to ACL members and the third ain’t gunna happen.”

    The ACL seem to very badly organised. They should have tried to influence the pre-selection process, not wait until the candidates have been chosen.

  25. Sandman

    “When I’m struggling to walk up and down hilly streets with my arthritic legs and my gay overweight dog sticking Labor propaganda in people’s letterboxes I remind myself of the smirkathon SfM has subjected us too, that smug, arrogant born to rule face – that fires me up for another block or two and I come to an OH who tells me I’m bonkers doing this chit at my age. That tells me I am doing the right thing. She makes me a brew and hands me some pain killers. Gotta love this life !! Fuck u Scomo.”

    This is up there with the best posts I’ve read on this site.

  26. Mavis: Late to the party, but I think Dio is correct – that combination of tests & timing suggests that you should consider yourself to have COVID despite the negative PCR. You will probably stay relatively asymptomatic and there is not much that you can do for it unless you start to develop breathlessness, in which case get reviewed ASAP. Word of warning – neither the oral antiviral SOTROVIMAB nor the current specific antibody cocktails work very well for the prevalent BA.2 strain. On the other hand, DEXAMETHASONE & hospital care still does.
    BW: Tell your mate to avoid BA.2 at all costs – for the reasons above.

  27. “Also think some voters will not be too happy about the Prayer Room being used for, um, non-prayer purposes.”

    Does the Karma Sutra include a ‘praying position’?

  29. Just watched the 7:30 interview of Morrison. Welll Sheeeeee…it. 🙁

    Considering Morrison was in full on i’m a bullying bastard who will talk over you at every chance mode, she did ok. Actually his behavior was obviously saying things about him that anyone watching would see as just reinforcing the attitudes expressed by his “own”people about him over the last few weeks.

    And just in case anyone missed it his response to the “interviews during the campaign” question had him at his worst.

    I think he said everything he had planned too, but nothing there people wont take as bullshit and the damage is done by how he went about it.

    He knows he’s gone. No faith in She Above to give him a miracle this time??

  31. That, ‘I did it to bring great women candidates in’ statement just rings so hollow and smacks of a marketing angle. Especially when you reflect on how the man treats Liberal women if they get elected.

  32. Anyway, if those super-selected women were so good, they should have won a pre-selection easily, you would have thought.

  33. Well done Sandman.

    I’m volunteering in our diabolically one sided conservative piece of the world because I got to the point where yelling at the t.v had turned a mirror on my sole. If not me then who? If not now then when? So I joined and I gave my word to help.

    I’m going to try eke out every last vote that I can to get a swing to Labor. I’m going to talk until my voice has gone. Then I’ll walk until I’ve stuffed my last DL in a letterbox.

    And we will still lose by heaps (sadly) but it’s not about us (yet) it’s about the country so that’s the point. I’m fighting so that the country understands we need change. Yes for me using my perspiration, osmosis or the soil or whatever cosmic drive my efforts give. We can’t win where I live (yet) but we can fight for change.

    I’ve not been as motivated in my life since I was forging my way early in my career to work so hard as I have been to see the end of this curse on our nation that the man our current PM is.

    So go well Sandman. You and so many others are my inspiration to do what I’m doing.

  34. “The minister for Submarines having trade brought in without sign ins is a national security issue.”

    As several have suggested, this is the real problem with Chris Pyne if what is alleged in parliament house happened.

    The risk of bribery or coercion in sub deals is real. There have been bribery allegations around sub contracts involving 7 navies in the last two decades. Three of them (India, Malaysia and Pakistan) involved DCNS/Naval. Bearing in mind we don’t have a Federal ICAC, and the odd decision in 2015 to choose the most expensive option (French) this whole project merits investigation.
    https://johnmenadue.com/a-special-investigation-naval-builder-of-australian-submarines-at-centre-of-numerous-global-corruption-scandals/

  35. Thanks Cat! I have a friend on NCAT, who applied for AAT last April. Buckets of experience and got no reply. It’s a bloody joke.

  36. Great list Ven.

    Could of left the God bit out of it.

    Not all of us think the Moon, Sun and ourselves were created by a God.

  37. 2 observations.

    I saw ScoMo on 7.30 – very briefly. He looked demented.

    The stacking of the AAT is beyond disgraceful. Just repulsive. The AAT deals with significant matters that have a real impact on people’s lives and often needing independent resolution of complex legal issues. Absolutely shameful.

  38. I actually looked up the Bridget Cullen “scandal” and it was pretty disappointingly nothing; wrote bad fiction on Facebook about an imaginary version of the thief who stole her car and was seen to be mocking the underprivileged by the uptight Christian school board she was on. Which she probably was but it’s at low end of the scandal scale.

  40. ”
    Been Theresays:
    Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 10:29 pm
    Great list Ven.

    Could of left the God bit out of it.

    Not all of us think the Moon, Sun and ourselves were created by a God.
    ”

    It was a copy and paste from a relative post. Ignore those things you don’t like. I found it positive. So I shared it. 🙂

  41. ScoMo, defender of women, is so horribly inauthentic I’m sure it will backfire.

    The thing that arguably won 2019 for him is that people did not think Shorten was authentic and working class people at least didn’t think Turnbull was authentic either, but Scotty convinced enough people that his daggy churchgoer Dad routine was authentic, that he was a classic Lib leader in the vein of Howard and you’d know what to expect from him.

    That’s been damaged since 2019 as it is, but this is next level bullshit even for him.

  42. I would like to see a provision put in the law that simply says that a person cannot be appointed to a paid federal position (including judicial or quasi-judicial positions, or advisory positions) if he or she, in the ten years preceding the appointment, was a member of the legislature of the Commonwealth, a State or a Territory, or a person employed under the Members of Parliament (Staff) Act.

    There we are: a job for the incoming government.

  43. In Relation to the AAT, Peter Katsambanis is not only a former WA Liberal MLC he is also a former Victorian MLC

  44. I found this on Sprocket’s twitter link;

    Someone told Dan Andrews that Morrison said a Melbourne rail project didn’t “stack up”. His response:

    “I’m not going to be taking lectures on whether things stack up from the PM, just quietly. The people of Australia will weigh up whether he stacks up.”

  49. Captain moonlight

    Katsambamis made a big impression on the pro liberal media in Perth and he’d not been in the upper house long when he was being talked up as a future leader.
    He decided to move to the lower house but lost the preselection ballot in the seat of Hillarys only to be installed as candidate by the liberal party state council.
    Where have I heard that scenario before?
    He held Hillarys in 2017 in face of the first McGowan Onslaught but didn’t survive the second.
    Nice of his Liberal mates to find him a job.

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