The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which most notably provide state-level federal voting intention results from three months’ combined polling with credible sample sizes. These find Labor with a lead of 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last quarter of 2021, a swing of around 6%); 58-42 in Victoria (out from 56-44, a swing of around 3%), 53-47 in Western Australia (in from 55-45, a swing of around 8.5%) and 59-41 in South Australia (out from 55-45, a swing of around 8%), but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).
There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now leads 60-40 among the 35-49s, out from 54-46; is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42. Conversely, the Coalition’s deficit among the 18-34s narrows from 69-31 to 66-34. Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.
Also out yesterday from the News Corp tabloids were nine federal seat polls from KJC Research, who are something of a mystery outfit except to the extent that they achieved a broadly correct result in a seat poll before the 2020 election in Queensland. The polls were conducted last Thursday and Saturday from samples of 800 apiece – the reporting doesn’t specify, but this could only have been accomplished affordably by means of automated phone polling. A paywalled display of the full results is available here.
The results were a fair bit better overall for the Coalition than the general tenor of polling nationally, with an average swing to Labor of around 2% by my reckoning. By my calculation, the results suggest Labor will gain Reid in New South Wales by 54-46 (a swing of 7%), Swan in Western Australia by 57-43 (a 10% swing) and Boothby in South Australia by 55-45 (a 6% swing), and retain Dunkley in Victoria by 60-40 (a 7% swing) and Gilmore in New South Wales by 53-47 (a 0.5% swing). Conversely, the poll suggests the Liberals will retain Bass in Tasmania by 54-46 (a Liberal swing of 3.5%), the Liberal National Party in Queensland will retain Flynn by 61-39 (a swing of 2.5%) and Longman by 56-44 (a swing of 3%), and – reportedly contrary to both parties’ expectations – the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%).
Presumably we’ll be hearing quite a bit from KJC Research over the coming months, because it has also conducted a poll of Wentworth for the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation’s Wentworth Project. As reported in The Conversation – which does make clear that this is an automated phone poll, conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1036 – the poll suggests Liberal member Dave Sharma is under serious pressure from independent candidate Allegra Spender, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 51-49 on two-candidate preferred. The primary votes are 42% for Sharma and 27% for Spender, with Labor on 14%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats and United Australia Party on 3% apiece.
Also out this week were Roy Morgan results on trust in government, which finds the political right dominating a list of the least trusted Australian political figures (Clive Palmer, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson making up the top five) and Gladys Berejiklian the only conservative with a net positive rating, where she stands alongside Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt. A spike in support for the proposition that the government is doing a good job through 2020 and early 2021 continues to evaporate, although it’s not quite back to the levels it was at pre-pandemic. This is based on an SMS survey conducted nearly a month ago from a sample of 1409.
Cronus says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:52 pm
…
Tactics evolve very quickly in war zones and it seems as though the Ukrainians are adept at adaptation.’
——————————————————-
Yep. Always dead easy when your mainforce enemy advances at a crawl in convoys one vehicle wide and 40km long. IMO the real test will come when they try retaking positions in which the Russians have had time to dig in.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-28/liberal-candidate-eden-monaro-voters-federal-election/100944822
C@T
“ The recent changes to ARENA’s mandate to include funding for fossil fuel and carbon capture projects has been found to be illegal and rejected by the Australian Senate.”
Hurrah, now that is very good news.
“Wow! Putin has dispatched Chechen Mercenaries to Belarus to shoot and kill any Russian soldiers that are trying to retreat and flee from the war in Ukraine!”
reference for that C@t?? I’d be a bit wary of that news. Taps into the history that we do know of regarding “punishment battalions” used by the Russians in WWII and may be a “aren’t those Russians still such monsters” news. 🙁
Can
“As frequently noted in the aftermath of MH370: it’s a big ocean out there.”
Agreed, though that’s a lot of large oil tankers.
ronussays:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 6:23 pm
C@T
“ The recent changes to ARENA’s mandate to include funding for fossil fuel and carbon capture projects has been found to be illegal and rejected by the Australian Senate.”
Hurrah, now that is very good news.
+1
C@t,
I did actually figure it out.
I made a comment that it had been used on some of my favourite 80’s albums.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ9wQWUOL8Q
The chances of the judiciary interfering in the Victorian cabal challenge to the preselections under the Federal intervention are zero.
And the High Court shall so hold!
C@T
Re Xenophon: I’m guessing of course, but possibly he may feel that the SA Best brand was damaged as a result of not meeting expectations at the 2018 SA election, so he may feel that running as an independent relieves him of any baggage from that.
For those who did not follow closely the 2018 SA election, or have just tried to forget this, this election ad from SA Best/Xenophon did not go down well and appears to have the begging of their slide in support. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2K8jZfUpLc
Burgey @ #1592 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 5:25 pm
There isn’t a QF lounge at Wagga airport. There’s a small cafe in the public area and you’re called into a smaller room beyond security in what seems a ridiculously early time for your flight. No refreshments there at all.
Rex Douglas @ #1634 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 5:56 pm
I am sure they will thrilled to have your seal of approval Rex.
“The West” front page image was too small to read on my screen so I’ve pasted the image here. Looks like a funny picture of Morrison popping up behind a fence.
Can anyone please enlighten me as to where this nickname ‘Littlefinger” came from? I’m assuming it relates to Shorten and isn’t very flattering but I have no idea why.
Thanks for that, Matt31. And this is where I wonder about how successful Nick Xenophon may actually be. He set up SA Best and it bombed. So, do South Aussies connect the dots or is he a one man cult of political personality because he amuses them?
Lars,
Bill Shorten will be Minister for the NDIS. Take it to the bank.
Bystander @ #1662 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 6:50 pm
It’s an esoteric reference to a character from Game of Thrones I think.
Matt31 – thoughts on the NI Poll?
Seems like no Stormont executive for a long time if ever?
SA Best got 20% of the LC vote at the previous election though, which is hardly bombing.
Matt31:
Aargh MY EARS. Nope NOPE.
I lasted fifteen seconds before I hit mute. They played TWO MINUTES of that on TV? I grew up in the country watching endless low-budget ads for tractors on GWN, and that’s actually worse. A LOT worse.
I had actually forgotten just how bad that ad was. For some reason I remembered it as being super cheesy but basically competent, rather than… whatever that was.
C@t,
This is the full release of Seven Souls…
Material ft. William Burroughs – Seven Souls (1989)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTElpGptLuU
Material’s 1994 album “Hallucination Engine” is a favourite.
There is a Fairlight credit on this too.
https://youtu.be/TBkJ-xRBLV0
bakunin @ #1656 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 6:28 pm
Good work! And a Sly and Robbie fan too! 🙂
https://youtu.be/6UgcYqwIJhE
Thanks C@t. I don’t watch Game of Thrones so I’m still a bit in the dark as to what the connection is.
Bystander @ #1672 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 7:01 pm
I’ve never watched it either!
From Littlefinger’s “chaos is a ladder” speech
https://youtu.be/FG3H9E-B464
A reference to Shorten’s position(s) in R/G/R
For Nick Xenophon, his best branding has always been Nick Xenophon.
The SA Best stuff, and trying to run a slate of candidates across multiple seats, really distracted from the core “Nick X” brand.
Nevertheless, 2018 was hardly a disaster for Mr X – SA best still polled 14.1% (enough for a Senate quota if translated Federally) and Xenophon himself polled 25% in Hartley – the seat which he contested personally.
The odds might be stacked against him this time, but by getting back to the core “Nick Xenophon” brand, he is still in with a real chance. It has worked for Pauline Hanson, and Xenophon has broader appeal and he is a genuine and well meaning bloke (albeit with a smart eye for publicity – dodgy videos aside!) As a candidate, he has a very good media profile and I have little doubt the SA media will embrace the story yet again!
Bystander says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 6:50 pm
Can anyone please enlighten me as to where this nickname ‘Littlefinger” came from? I’m assuming it relates to Shorten and isn’t very flattering but I have no idea why.
_________________
I invented it as part of my critique. It references the GoT character ‘Littlefinger’ and his motto ‘Chaos is a Ladder’ which aptly described Shorten’s activities around RGR.
Littlefinger was an arch schemer in Game of Thrones….and all his schemes were for his own benefit
One Nation’s anti-Albo cartoon on youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LKM2rzZpRw
Littlefinger had an all-consuming and insatiable lust for the game of thrones.
Re Citizen @6:43.
That picture looks like an homage to the 90s sitcom “Tool Time”, with Morrison as the friendly but wise neighbour (although you never saw his face, unlike that pic).
But seriously, boosting purchasing power, which is what this seems to be about, is totally the wrong way to go. It just pushes up prices further.
I feel Littlefinger will either become PM or he will become anti-party.
There is no middle way.
Bystander,
All it demonstrates is the puerile immaturity of a couple of posters on PB.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:56 pm
Cassandra Fernando, a Shop Distributive and Allied Employees organiser, will contest Holt, vacated by retiring MP Anthony Byrne
That’s actually a wise move from Labor
”
nath
Are you happy with the choice?
Littlefingers murder was one of the better hit jobs.
Citizen
Very strange front page from The West Australian.
Leading with Budget changes to help first home buyers, a story pretty much ignored everywhere else.
And comic look.
Sad the depths that they have reached.
Steve777 at 7:08 pm
Same happened with The Rodent’s first home grants. Here have a $7,000 grant and 10,9,8,7………1 , gosh the price for a new home seems to have gone up by $7,000. He had another go and doubled the grant and what do you know, the price jumped up again.
Lars boosting One Nation cartoons is not surprising.
Rooting for Pauline, Lars?
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 7:09 pm
I feel Littlefinger will either become PM or he will become anti-party.
There is no middle way.
_____________
There is a question over whether Caucus will vote him into Cabinet when Labor wins. As a former leader you would expect that he would get the votes. But with his sub faction being on the outs in Victoria, the Vic Right might want to fill their available positions differently.
Xenophon is not running with SA Best because SA Best isn’t a federal party (i.e. registered with the AEC.)
“Chaos is a Ladder” would be the motto of Al Qaeda, Isis and any number of terrorist organisations. It would also be Donald Trump’s motto. I would also suggest Tony Abbott applied it during his time as Opposition Leader.
Steve777 @ #1397 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 7:16 pm
Morrison used the Turnbull/Dutton chaos to ascend.
Lars
Agree re Stormont. I don’t see any way it comes back, certainly not in the short or medium term, if ever. One of the ironies of the current situation is that the DUP leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, isn’t exactly a hard liner when it comes to DUP politics. But unionist/loyalist anger at the protocol has forced him in to a position that I really don’t feel he wants to be in. So direct rule for the foreseeable future I’d say.
nath says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 7:09 pm
I feel Littlefinger will either become PM or he will become anti-party.
There is no middle way.
_____________
There is a question over whether Caucus will vote him into Cabinet when Labor wins. As a former leader you would expect that he would get the votes. But with his sub faction being on the outs in Victoria, the Vic Right might want to fill their available positions differently.
______________
I think the plan is to 1) deplatform Littlefingers powerbase and 2) remove Littlefinger with some grace.
I’d say NDIS in Cabinet and a mid term tap on the shoulder – ambassadorship or GG seems a likely exit.
I think its exactly the risk of him turning anti-party that requires some delicacy.
Pauline Hanson is running interference for the Coalition. They are fellow travellers who can say out loud what Liberals can’t – in public at least. Harvest a few percent of the vote and send as much as possible to the Coalition via preferences. That’s why Coalition booster would boost One Nation and Palmists.
You know I think calling Dutton potato head is too generous these days, he is looking more like Lord Voldemort !
Kind of disturbing really!
Nick Xenophon hasn’t exactly been out of the media over the last year. As a lawyer he represented an Australian maker of ugg-boots in a case where a US firm has acquired the name as a trademark (unsuccessfully), and more recently representing Frances Bedford (State Labor pollie turned independent) in an action against a flyer issued by the Libs (I think). Again unsuccessful.
I think he still has a personal following, but I sense there was a fall out with his erstwhile colleagues in NXT, SA Best and CA. Without him, they have bombed – except for Sharkie. If he could stand as part of CA rather than a standalone and competing candidate I suspect he would improve his chances.
I think that lately Stokes has lost some control of his “journalists”. Just not lost enough control for me to remove the quotation marks around their description as journalists.
Rex @7:19PM.
”Morrison used the Turnbull/Dutton chaos to ascend.”
Yes – great point.
bakunin,
Great song by Material.
Did you see this?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/25/opinion/questlove-inspiration-collection.html