The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which most notably provide state-level federal voting intention results from three months’ combined polling with credible sample sizes. These find Labor with a lead of 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last quarter of 2021, a swing of around 6%); 58-42 in Victoria (out from 56-44, a swing of around 3%), 53-47 in Western Australia (in from 55-45, a swing of around 8.5%) and 59-41 in South Australia (out from 55-45, a swing of around 8%), but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).
There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now leads 60-40 among the 35-49s, out from 54-46; is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42. Conversely, the Coalition’s deficit among the 18-34s narrows from 69-31 to 66-34. Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.
Also out yesterday from the News Corp tabloids were nine federal seat polls from KJC Research, who are something of a mystery outfit except to the extent that they achieved a broadly correct result in a seat poll before the 2020 election in Queensland. The polls were conducted last Thursday and Saturday from samples of 800 apiece – the reporting doesn’t specify, but this could only have been accomplished affordably by means of automated phone polling. A paywalled display of the full results is available here.
The results were a fair bit better overall for the Coalition than the general tenor of polling nationally, with an average swing to Labor of around 2% by my reckoning. By my calculation, the results suggest Labor will gain Reid in New South Wales by 54-46 (a swing of 7%), Swan in Western Australia by 57-43 (a 10% swing) and Boothby in South Australia by 55-45 (a 6% swing), and retain Dunkley in Victoria by 60-40 (a 7% swing) and Gilmore in New South Wales by 53-47 (a 0.5% swing). Conversely, the poll suggests the Liberals will retain Bass in Tasmania by 54-46 (a Liberal swing of 3.5%), the Liberal National Party in Queensland will retain Flynn by 61-39 (a swing of 2.5%) and Longman by 56-44 (a swing of 3%), and – reportedly contrary to both parties’ expectations – the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%).
Presumably we’ll be hearing quite a bit from KJC Research over the coming months, because it has also conducted a poll of Wentworth for the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation’s Wentworth Project. As reported in The Conversation – which does make clear that this is an automated phone poll, conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1036 – the poll suggests Liberal member Dave Sharma is under serious pressure from independent candidate Allegra Spender, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 51-49 on two-candidate preferred. The primary votes are 42% for Sharma and 27% for Spender, with Labor on 14%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats and United Australia Party on 3% apiece.
Also out this week were Roy Morgan results on trust in government, which finds the political right dominating a list of the least trusted Australian political figures (Clive Palmer, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson making up the top five) and Gladys Berejiklian the only conservative with a net positive rating, where she stands alongside Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt. A spike in support for the proposition that the government is doing a good job through 2020 and early 2021 continues to evaporate, although it’s not quite back to the levels it was at pre-pandemic. This is based on an SMS survey conducted nearly a month ago from a sample of 1409.
Xenophon Davis represented friendlyjordies. Successfully.
Thanks to all those who answered my query. Not sure that I agree with the characterisation but at least I now know where it came from.
”[Dutton] is looking more like Lord Voldemort !”
Give him a white Persian cat and he could be Ernst Stavro Blofeld, or perhaps Dr Evil.
Good question…
Great name too: Krypton Chloride Excimer Lamp !
Bystander @ #1408 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 7:27 pm
If you’re into politics, you’d likely love this show. Give it a try.
It’s certainly true that the SA Best project did take away from the focus on brand Xenophon. They did have some candidate issues, I seem to remember one having strong anti vaccination views for example. One of their problems at the 2018 SA election was that they were poling so well that Xenophon felt he had to run more candidates than intended, leading to problems. So Xenophon likely believes his best shot is to focus on himself with no distractions. Personally, I won’t exactly be shocked if he pulls it off.
Lars
Your previous thoughts on Sinn Fèin’s plans once a referendum in both entities accept unification.
There is no plan other than Stage 1 referendum, stage 2 ?, stage 3 all live happily in a socialist united ireland.
Pre Gerry Adams and 1988 split (such a time existed) the policy was Nua Éire – a federation based on the provinces with the capital in Atherone. The trick was that the north would have a 9 county Ulster rather that a 6 county NI entity (and thus a Catholic majority). Getting rid of Nua Éire and participation in the Dàil were the causes of the split but no policy was put forward as a replacement.
If the referendums ever occur and succeed the adults will have to sort out the details
Steve777 says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 7:20 pm
Pauline Hanson is running interference for the Coalition. They are fellow travellers who can say out loud what Liberals can’t – in public at least. Harvest a few percent of the vote and send as much as possible to the Coalition via preferences. That’s why Coalition booster would boost One Nation and Palmists.
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Surely after 2019 that shouldn’t come as a surprise?
Answering my own question here, thanks to Wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
Stirling Griff is #2 on the Nick X ticket, which I guess means Centre Alliance is dead or close to it. Who does Rebekha Sharkie hand out senate HTV cards for?
Is Ch 10 the first TV station to feature Morrison’s rear end in close up?
Tonight’s Ch 10 news segment on the budget – start at 17 seconds in.
(EDIT – WRONG IMPORT)
https://twitter.com/10NewsFirst/status/1508325399562006529?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Also Morrison’s problem with simple maths – start at 1:50 in.
Steve777:
“Tool Time” was the name of the show-within-a-show. The 90s sitcom that launched Tim Allen’s career was called “Home Improvement”. It’s a bit of a dated reference though.
Correct. The extra government cash will just end up trousered by existing home owners… which perhaps is the point, if you’re trying to buy an election. Hardly seems like a model of fiscal rectitude and good public policy, though.
Lars @7:34. “Surely after 2019 that shouldn’t come as a surprise?”
I’m not surprised. I always thought that Hanson remained a Liberal at heart, that she said what many Liberal and National voters thought. Many Liberals think so to. John Howard’s reaction to her maiden speech was telling.
Steve777 do you think Labor is ready to rebut the negative campaign which is coming?
The average vehicle in Australia does 13,301 km/year, the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles in Australia is 11.1L/100km, so let’s just cut everyone a cheque for $147.60 and be done with it?
Late Riser : Great name too: Krypton Chloride Excimer Lamp !
Putting them as purifiers on the outputs of air-treatment systems in buildings could be a cost-effective way of implementing such tech.
Re Caf @7:37 PM. ”Tool Time” was the name of the show-within-a-show. The 90s sitcom that launched Tim Allen’s career was called “Home Improvement”. It’s a bit of a dated reference though.”
Yes of course, now it makes more sense. The show’s not been on for ages unless it’s on Foxtel or one of the streaming services, so the reference will not be widely recognised.
Lars,
All you’ve got is trolling and asinine talking points.
Labor will deal with you easily.
”Steve777 do you think Labor is ready to rebut the negative campaign which is coming?”
I have no idea, I don’t move in political circles. They weren’t last time. I hope they will be this time.
Looking at the media reports the hi viz vests industry is killing it.
Lars Von Trier
I think an equally good question might be: is the media ready to equally promulgate Labor’s attempts to rebut the Coalition’s negative campaign?
Citizen
“ NSW Transport Minister rules out a tilt at federal politics
David Elliott has decided not to nominate for the federal seat of Parramatta.”
Thanks for this. While I am sure Liberal MPs are a loyal band of brothers who would dive on a grenade for each other this does make me wonder what their internal polling is looking like in Sydney?
I believe Hi Vis vests are a tax deductible expense for lolly pop men and politicians, being crucial for both professions to ply their trade.
Cronus says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 7:55 pm
Lars Von Trier
I think an equally good question might be: is the media ready to equally promulgate Labor’s attempts to rebut the Coalition’s negative campaign?
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Which is why making piece with News Corp would have been the smart play.
With petrol prices so volatile (pun intended), how would motorists know if any temporary cut in fuel excise was being passed on by the oil companies?
Prices can vary enormously across the country, within cities and even from hour to hour.
Doubtless Frydenberg will announce that he has told the ACCC to investigate any price gouging by oil companies but even if the ACCC were to act, it would be long after the horse had bolted.
Fulvio Sammut
LOL. I think lollipop people need them more though, at least they’re providing a community service.
Price control regulations carrying penalties for breaches in the hundreds of millions would put a stop to the fuel rorts overnight.
It looks like the Wilson River’s going to flood again tonight. We had a woman (mid-60s) turn up at the trailer park today, who lost nearly all her possessions after the Lismore flood and was not insured. She only has one close relative – her brother, who leases a van. To his great credit, he’s going to assign his lease to his sister & move to another trailer park, her tale one of great distress. The lease transfer was approved in the absence of the usual checks.
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I don’t think Xenophon has a hope in Hades of securing a Senate seat. He’s a Tory in essence, longing to return to the gravy train, knowing how lucrative it is. Perhaps his practice is going down hill? His unsucessful attempt in the the seat of Hartley should’ve confirmed he’s a middle-aged has been.
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Smith should have his best actor award revoked. He’s an angry man, with two chips on each shoulder. Given his propensity for violence, some form of punishment should ensue. It really was very poor form.
If you work from the assumption that every Morrison/Liberal policy is based on personal enrichment or paying off donors it explains everything.
So first home buyers grants pushes up house prices for a cabinet full of investment property owners.
And the fuel tax cut benefits large industrial users of fuel far more than average motorists. The biggest motoring cost is almost always depreciation.
Maybe some people should show more respect for other people’s spouses.
Liars Von Trier
“Which is why making piece with News Corp would have been the smart play.”
I’m not sure that’s actually possible Lars, any attempt would just be seen as weakness in any case and Newscorp would just double down on the ALP. Murdoch has a goal and a constituency and will never change, it’s not in their interest. Their simple goal is the maintenance of a Coalition government.
Conus says:
..
Their simple goal is the maintenance of a Coalition government.
If you look at sky news I think News Corps goals are deeper than that. Complete destruction of democratic governments. Murdoch seems to be real impressed with Xi and Putin and supports any half baked twit to run western democracies. Trump, Johnson and Morrison all come to mind.
This horse shit about god has got to stop.. from our own idiot Scott Morrison to Joe Biden equating Putin’s success or failure to god’s will to idiot Will Smith..
“Richard Williams was a fierce defender of his family,” Smith said, referring to his character. “In this time in my life, I am overwhelmed by what God is calling on me to do and be in this world.”
What have Gareth Ward, Dave Sharma, David Davis, Josh Frydenberg, Sarah Henderson, Andrew Bragg,Tim Smith, Barnaby Joyce, Sussan Ley, Michael McCormack, Keith Pitt, Vicki Dunne, Troy Buswell, Stuart Robert, Angus Taylor, Michaela Cash, Julie Bishop, Wendy Lovell, Michael Ferguson, Scott Morrison, and Louise Archer have in common?
They are all current or former Liberal or Nationals MPs and Senators. After that they branch out a bit, showing that they DO have initiative, or allegedly showing initiative, if nothing else:
facing a swag of allegations of illegal sexual behaviour
putting out scurrilous public advertising in cahoots with a gang of ultra right ratbags
being pissed at a public engagement
snapping the bra of a staffer
allegedly engaging in sexual harassment of a woman
stating that we were ‘back in the black’ when we were in the red and the red is now the biggest ever
engaging in class warfare in relation to social housing
billing the taxpayer for flights to the Melbourne cup for himself and the wife and justifying it by making an announcement
sniffing a chair on which a woman had sat down
putting down teachers in government schools
allegedly grabbing the crotch of another Liberal
making an ‘error of judgement’ in dunning the taxpayer for four trips to the Gold Coast to make a property investment
repaying the taxpayer something like $38,000
putting down child sexual abuse victims
facing allegations of plagiarism
facing allegations of plagiarism
facing allegations of plagiarism – yes, a plague of plagiarism
filing a false living away from home claim
facing in court multiple cases of aggravated assault against a woman
allegedly misusing ministerial entitlements
driving a government vehicle into a flooded creek and writing it off
running an office that is allegedly linked to criminal behaviour relating to police tip offs
allegedly threatened a woman, also a Senator, with jail
allegedly being linked to a company that allegedly cleared an endangered ecosystem
running an office that is allegedly linked to alleged criminal behaviour relating to a forged document falsely accusing a public figure of misbehaviour
allegedly lying about the restoration of cardio surgery having been restored at Sydney Children’s Hospital
threatening legal action to try to shut down public debate on their voting records
threatening funding by trying to withdraw charity status from an organisation which publishes contrary views
driving while pissed
crashing into a house while pissed
committing nine speeding offences in the space of three years
writing a letter of support for a federal grant for a company in which his wife allegedly has shares.
allegedly without testing the market went straight to a Liberal donor company to buy 70,000 tonnes of COAL
getting mentored by, and being friendly with, a disgraced church leader and… just possibly, lying to the MSM about not having been to Hillsong for 15 years
Bakunin, if you’re still about:
Hallucination Engine ranks up there as one of my top 3 of all time!!!! Sadly, cannot get on AppleMusic so thanks for that link.
Murdoch is an Oligarch. Unlike the Russian ones, he regards himself (mostly correctly) as being above and beyond the control of the national Government, certainly in Australia. He regards himself (correctly) as a mover and shaker in the countries in which he operates, especially in Australia where he has a stranglehold on the old media. He enjoys that role even more than making money. He helps the side that best serves his commercial interests and his world view.
Boerwar, is that all you’ve got?
Didn’t see any reference to CFV’s Liberal bullying claim on ABC news.
Murdoch supported Rudd in 2007 and Hawke in 1983. Why not Albo in 2022?
I’ll just open a window for that fresh air dividend.
Fulvio:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 8:16 pm
[‘Maybe some people should show more respect for other people’s spouses.’]
Yeah? But address the issue privately. Smith demonstrates that if all else fails, violence is the panacea. I really think his assault of Rock will do him (Smith) great harm. I really don’t like the man.
Fulvio:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 8:35 pm
[‘Boerwar, is that all you’ve got?’]
In a phrase, you can be unkind.
Murdoch support for Labor in the past is generally when their coverage is about 50/50 positive for both sides.
Where as the usual is like 80/20 in the LNPs favour.
They might give Albo slightly better coverage at 30/70 who knows!!
From the obvious legal perspective, you are quite right of course, Mavis.
But from the perspective of publicly cutting down to size an oaf who publicly, needlessly and gratuitously ridiculed and embarrassed Smith’s wife, I say well done sir, and consider the response commensurate with the provocation.
Check this amazing video fly through of the Tesla Gigafactory Grünheide, Berlin.
Full screen. Volume up. Strapped in.
https://youtu.be/IO5XC1x27gg
This is a verified post by the Young Liberals, portend of the desperation to come…
It was a joke, Mavis.
I know boerwar has a sense of humour.
Sprocket
Yes I saw it too.
Certainly a classy way to use violence to score political points.
From the party that brought you “rampant misogyny” and “two alleged rape coverups”.
Murdoch has traversed the well-trodden path from idealistic young Socialist to grumpy old hard Right curmudgeon. In 1983 his views had not yet solidified. Anyway, 1983 was a different country. Murdoch’s support of Rudd in 2007 was very conditional and he quickly switched to pushing regime change. Albo in 2022? There’s no indication of that.
Hollywood and the USA, generally, are a vile mess. Summed up well by Golding.
