The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which most notably provide state-level federal voting intention results from three months’ combined polling with credible sample sizes. These find Labor with a lead of 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last quarter of 2021, a swing of around 6%); 58-42 in Victoria (out from 56-44, a swing of around 3%), 53-47 in Western Australia (in from 55-45, a swing of around 8.5%) and 59-41 in South Australia (out from 55-45, a swing of around 8%), but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).
There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now leads 60-40 among the 35-49s, out from 54-46; is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42. Conversely, the Coalition’s deficit among the 18-34s narrows from 69-31 to 66-34. Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.
Also out yesterday from the News Corp tabloids were nine federal seat polls from KJC Research, who are something of a mystery outfit except to the extent that they achieved a broadly correct result in a seat poll before the 2020 election in Queensland. The polls were conducted last Thursday and Saturday from samples of 800 apiece – the reporting doesn’t specify, but this could only have been accomplished affordably by means of automated phone polling. A paywalled display of the full results is available here.
The results were a fair bit better overall for the Coalition than the general tenor of polling nationally, with an average swing to Labor of around 2% by my reckoning. By my calculation, the results suggest Labor will gain Reid in New South Wales by 54-46 (a swing of 7%), Swan in Western Australia by 57-43 (a 10% swing) and Boothby in South Australia by 55-45 (a 6% swing), and retain Dunkley in Victoria by 60-40 (a 7% swing) and Gilmore in New South Wales by 53-47 (a 0.5% swing). Conversely, the poll suggests the Liberals will retain Bass in Tasmania by 54-46 (a Liberal swing of 3.5%), the Liberal National Party in Queensland will retain Flynn by 61-39 (a swing of 2.5%) and Longman by 56-44 (a swing of 3%), and – reportedly contrary to both parties’ expectations – the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%).
Presumably we’ll be hearing quite a bit from KJC Research over the coming months, because it has also conducted a poll of Wentworth for the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation’s Wentworth Project. As reported in The Conversation – which does make clear that this is an automated phone poll, conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1036 – the poll suggests Liberal member Dave Sharma is under serious pressure from independent candidate Allegra Spender, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 51-49 on two-candidate preferred. The primary votes are 42% for Sharma and 27% for Spender, with Labor on 14%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats and United Australia Party on 3% apiece.
Also out this week were Roy Morgan results on trust in government, which finds the political right dominating a list of the least trusted Australian political figures (Clive Palmer, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson making up the top five) and Gladys Berejiklian the only conservative with a net positive rating, where she stands alongside Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt. A spike in support for the proposition that the government is doing a good job through 2020 and early 2021 continues to evaporate, although it’s not quite back to the levels it was at pre-pandemic. This is based on an SMS survey conducted nearly a month ago from a sample of 1409.
I suppose some large, fairly accurate individual seat polls for WA is too much to ask.
Kevin Bonham has updated his post on newspoll: https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/03/old-rope-new-low-in-australians.html
Or read his twitter thread: https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1506968850079752198
In other news, in case anyone has missed it:
Trump aide Manafort removed from plane for revoked passport: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-middle-east-miami-europe-paul-manafort-de557d1773a150fa975769d7216fa54f?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow
“DNA collection has been going on quietly for years in China, especially in Xinjiang and among men and boys. But I’m still stunned to see this about to be codified into law.”: https://twitter.com/suilee/status/1506417620123209729
Oh, and for something amusing:
https://twitter.com/matvelloso/status/1506662515064795137
“Dear parents, Be aware of the early signs that your child will become a developer”
What exactly do the Coalition do for the 65+ cohort that makes them so appealing to that age-group?
Never mind the over 65s, what exactly do the coalition do for Qld that makes them so appealing to that state?
Queensland is a shame since it would be a good state for a lot of gains in a good year. I wouldn’t count on it this time. Fingers crossed there’s enough gains elsewhere and no losses that there is a change of government this year. If Labor can gain one seat in Queensland that would be nice.
Ukrainian is fighting to keep it’s ports and our chief wanker sends a ship load of coal. How can one man be PM and so dam stupid.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/25/coalition-went-directly-to-liberal-donor-whitehaven-to-purchase-coal-for-ukraine
ltep says:
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 6:14 am
Queensland is a shame since it would be a good state for a lot of gains in a good year. I wouldn’t count on it this time. Fingers crossed there’s enough gains elsewhere and no losses that there is a change of government this year. If Labor can gain one seat in Queensland that would be nice.
———-
The Newspoll numbers suggest there’s enough of a swing elsewhere to more than compensate for any softness in QLD. These data continue the pattern from a few recent polls for Qld. Not sure why folk north of the Tweed (or anyone else for that matter) would be enamoured of Scomo and the LNP.
Frednk @ #7 Friday, March 25th, 2022 – 6:45 am
To be fair, they asked us for it. CoalMo happy to oblige.
Mr. Newbie @ #4 Friday, March 25th, 2022 – 3:16 am
Franking Credits, Negative Gearing, No Tax on their Super…
Older people are (generally speaking) more socially conservative and less prone to being swayed by the latest policy fascinations of the left.
C@tmommasays:
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 7:06 am
Mr. Newbie @ #4 Friday, March 25th, 2022 – 3:16 am
What exactly do the Coalition do for the 65+ cohort that makes them so appealing to that age-group?
Franking Credits, Negative Gearing, No Tax on their Super…
–
And when the Reserve Bank increases interest rates {like they are expected to do shortly after the election] retirees get an income boost via dividends from their Super funds. It comes at the expense of 35-49 year olds cost of living expenses and keeps 20-34 years old out of the housing market but self interest is an alluring motive -your nest egg suddenly becomes fatter.
Max
We’re just extraordinarily bloody minded up here.
For the out-of-staters: Do a google news search for Annastacia Palaszczuk if you want an idea of why Labor’s vote has softened over the last month or whatever.
C@tmomma @ #10 Friday, March 25th, 2022 – 7:06 am
Franking credits – Labor, Neg gearing – UAP (1936), and many wouldn’t have super if it weren’t for Labor. So fair question I reckon.
Is it just me or am I still not sensing voters waiting for Morrison with baseball bats?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
David Crowe reckons we shouldn’t be shocked if Frydenberg’s budget delivers tax cuts. He says some economists are saying the government will use its forecasts for revenue tomorrow to make spending decisions today.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/happy-josh-s-fistful-of-dollars-don-t-be-shocked-if-his-budget-delivers-tax-cuts-20220324-p5a7fx.html
What to expect in Australia’s next budget? It’s a tax cut that’s not a tax cut, says Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/mar/24/what-to-expect-in-australias-next-budget-a-tax-cut-thats-not-a-tax-cut
Cut emissions, not petrol tax; fund childcare, not beer. Peter Martin tells us what economists want from next week’s budget.
https://theconversation.com/cut-emissions-not-petrol-tax-fund-childcare-not-beer-what-economists-want-from-next-weeks-budget-179837
Australia will need to improve its fiscal position by $40 billion a year. There are good solutions, but they have to be radical, explains Richard Holden.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/we-ll-have-to-think-big-on-budget-repair-20220323-p5a7au
Michelle Grattan wonders what will come after this grinding election campaign passes.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-what-comes-after-this-grinding-election-campaign-passes-179959
With heightened warnings that Russia could be preparing a major cyber attack on the US, the Biden administration would expect the Australia, New Zealand and United States Security Treaty (ANZUS) to be invoked in full support of America, explains Peter Hartcher. He says such a decision could draw Australia into a retaliatory American cyber assault on Vladimir Putin’s regime, drawing Australia directly into any confrontation.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/russian-cyber-threat-to-us-could-invoke-anzus-treaty-20220324-p5a7rj.html
Voters in the key demographics that helped Scott Morrison win the last election have deserted the Coalition over the past three months, with sharp falls in support among working families, in a sign that cost-of-living pressures will define the political contest as the government puts the finishing touches to next week’s budget, writes Simon Benson who analyses Newspoll since the start of the year.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-analysis-miracle-victory-voters-desert-scott-morrison/news-story/095698f9def7febbd6902976b9907d22
Phil Coorey is still banging on about the Kitching issue.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/sanctimony-is-a-dangerous-card-to-play-in-politics-20220324-p5a7fg
We need politicians of Andrew Charlton’s calibre, but rank-and-file votes won’t always deliver them, argues Chris Wallace in a worthwhile contribution.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-politicians-of-andrew-charlton-s-calibre-but-rank-and-file-votes-won-t-always-deliver-them-20220324-p5a7ow.html
The Liberal Party is now utterly structurally stuffed in South Australia, writes David Penberthy who says the devastating thing for the South Australian Liberal Party is that they didn’t just lose the 2022 election last Saturday. They also lost the 2026 election.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/david-penberthy-he-liberal-party-is-now-utterly-structurally-stuffed-in-this-state/news-story/a10a7de3ba26db058e24086951ca130c?amp
Australians are living through the longest period of sustained democratic dissatisfaction in the nation’s history, according to the Australian Electoral Study. Matthew Bulera tells us how our democracy is weakening and how we can stop the rot
https://johnmenadue.com/our-democracy-is-weakening-heres-how-we-can-stop-the-rot/
Christopher Knaus tells us that a staggering 97% of aged care workers have not received the Morrison government’s promised $800 bonus. Providers were eligible to apply for the payment from 1 March for any worker active in the industry on 28 February, and the government asked the cash-strapped providers to fork out the money to give to workers before their applications were approved and finalised with government.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/25/survey-finds-97-of-australias-aged-care-workers-have-not-received-800-bonus
Jordan Baker reveals that almost 40 NSW private schools have been overpaid by more than $1 million a year each, and four were given more than twice as much government money as they were due. FFS!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-130-private-schools-over-funded-by-120-million-research-reveals-20220324-p5a7gd.html
Angus Thompson reports that the Health Services Union may campaign against Labor heading into the May election if it is not convinced of the party’s preparedness to fund the aged care sector.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/union-threatens-to-withhold-funding-resources-from-labor-over-aged-care-wage-stance-20220323-p5a7aj.html
Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said he would be open to leading a conversation about state tax reform if Labor wins the election, but drew the line on bracket creep, writes Shane Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-open-to-leading-state-tax-reform-shadow-treasurer-20220324-p5a7mo.html
The Guardian reveals that the Australian government publicly pledged to buy 70,000 tonnes of thermal coal from miner Whitehaven, a Liberal donor, to donate to Ukraine before finalising the cost to the taxpayer – and failed to approach at least one other major coalminer to gauge their interest.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/25/coalition-went-directly-to-liberal-donor-whitehaven-to-purchase-coal-for-ukraine
The climate criminals are, of course, seeking to cover their tracks, writes Richard Hil who says the new reality of climate chaos is upon us.
https://johnmenadue.com/richard-hil-what-the-crisis-response-is-telling-us/
Greg Sheridan points out that the biggest mystery with respect to defence spending remains why the government has not yet announced any action on the initiative it first announced two years ago – and which has been re-announced repeatedly since – to build a missile manufacturing facility in Australia.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/budget-2022-lastchance-saloon-for-coalition-either-arm-defence-or-do-nothing-foolish/news-story/88126c76fa47a175add0772e0f53518b
James Roberston looks at Nick Xenophon’s return to politics.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/03/24/nick-xenophon-politics-return/
The AFR tells us that civil contractors are saying they are hugely stretched due to soaring prices and have called on governments to follow Queensland’s lead and bear more of the costs of core building materials.
https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/contractors-seek-relief-as-costs-spiral-20220324-p5a7ia
The crisis engulfing regional NSW hospitals has intensified after a senior health official declared an “internal emergency” at Bourke Hospital, warning that the facility is on the brink of closure without urgent intervention, report Lucy Carrol and Carrie Fellner. Severe staff shortages have put the hospital in a “dire” situation.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/dire-staffing-crisis-an-internal-emergency-at-nsw-hospital-20220323-p5a74k.html
Assistant Defence Minister and former elite soldier Andrew Hastie has told the Federal Court that war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith had a “widespread” reputation within the Special Air Service for bullying a fellow soldier, writes Michaela Whitbourn after another less than helpful day in court for Ben Roberts-Smith.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/roberts-smith-had-reputation-for-bullying-a-fellow-soldier-andrew-hastie-tells-court-20220324-p5a7ov.html
In a move that threatens to destabilise the ALP, forces aligned with the late Kimberley Kitching are launching legal action challenging the legitimacy of the federal takeover of the Victorian ALP, explains Paul Sakkal.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/kitching-labor-war-escalates-with-high-court-challenge-to-albanese-takeover-20220324-p5a7qs.html
The Victorian Liberal MP Wendy Lovell has come under fierce criticism for saying there is “no point” in having social housing in wealthy areas “where the children cannot mix with others”. Some of these Liberal ladies just can’t help themselves!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/24/victorian-liberal-mp-wendy-lovell-chastised-for-saying-children-in-social-housing-cannot-mix-in-wealthy-areas
Scott Morrison said he was “shocked and disappointed” that Hillsong global senior pastor Brian Houston had resigned from the church after he was found to have breached its moral code but said he had not been a member of the church for 15 years, writes Harriett Alexander. As usual, Morrison plays with his words.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-shocked-and-disappointed-by-houston-resignation-not-been-a-hillsong-member-for-15-years-20220324-p5a7o2.html
Non-disclosure agreements muzzle the harassed, help the perpetrators, and ensure that bad behaviour continues. It’s time they were ditched, argues Kirsten Ferguson who examines the effort of the board of Hillsong Church,
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/it-s-time-to-end-non-disclosure-let-outs-for-scandal-hit-boards-20220323-p5a7as
A manufacturing jobs resurgence promised by both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese will have to defy economic gravity, with figures revealing the smallest proportion of Australians working in the sector on record, say Shane Wright and Rachel Clun.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/manufacturing-jobs-promise-faltering-as-covid-19-hits-sector-hard-20220324-p5a7fn.html
Jacqui Lambie has said the Prime Minister has a document in his office confirming there was a deal to send refugees to New Zealand, and that it was made clear to her that she would end up in jail if she spoke about it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-accepts-new-zealand-s-offer-to-take-refugees-nine-years-after-it-was-made-20220324-p5a7l4.html
Josh Gordon outlines the shocker of a time the Victorian opposition Guy has been having.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/week-of-stuff-ups-one-for-the-history-books-20220324-p5a7hx.html
The Age’s editorial urges Melbournians to leave the car keys at home and to get back onto public transport.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/leave-the-car-keys-at-home-we-need-to-get-back-on-public-transport-20220322-p5a6qg.html
Patrick Hatch reports that a billionaire property developer has revealed to the inquiry how The Star Sydney staff helped him use a Chinese bank card to transfer $11 million in gambling funds to the casino in a single day.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-star-showed-high-roller-how-to-make-11m-china-transfer-20220324-p5a7nd.html
Crown Resorts has inauspiciously scored a regulatory hat trick after being declared unsuitable to hold a casino licence in three states – NSW, Victoria and now Western Australia. Today’s bigger question is whether Star Entertainment will join Crown in being found unsuitable, writes Elizabeth Knight.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/star-risks-joining-crown-s-regulatory-hat-trick-20220324-p5a7mr.html
Australia’s two casino companies are under fire thanks to damning revelations about their lax approach, but the evidence also shows regulators have been asleep at the wheel, says the AFR.
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/casino-report-buries-regulator-20220324-p5a7me
The Adelaide Advertiser tells us that Osborne’s submarine shipyard will more than triple in size as the federal government moves to secure the space needed for nuclear-powered submarines.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/osborne-submarine-shipyard-to-triple-in-size-for-aukus-build/news-story/36314d261e8761cf69df0964f53f97e0?amp
Building a single fibre connection to a business in Barnaby Joyce’s New England electorate is expected to cost more than $600,000, almost double the original estimate, documents obtained by Guardian Australia reveal.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/25/nbn-upgrade-to-single-business-in-barnaby-joyces-electorate-to-cost-630000
It’s nonsense for Angus Taylor to suggest Australia could face an energy crisis like Europe’s, writes Adam Morton.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/24/its-nonsense-for-angus-taylor-to-suggest-australia-could-face-an-energy-crisis-like-europes
Is News Corp following through on its climate change backflip? Victoria Fielding’s analysis of its flood coverage suggests not.
https://theconversation.com/is-news-corp-following-through-on-its-climate-change-backflip-my-analysis-of-its-flood-coverage-suggests-not-179468
In the wake of some of Australia’s worst floods, many are questioning the swiftness and efficacy of the Federal Government’s efforts to mitigate the impact on beleaguered communities, reports Nicholas Bugeja.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/federal-governments–flood-response-branded-a-failure-as-recovery-begins,16178
Widespread coral bleaching first hit the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, but it is now happening so frequently that scientists say the billions of dollars spent on conservation measures have failed to halt the growing damage caused by climate change, writes Mike Foley.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/conservation-won-t-save-the-great-barrier-reef-from-climate-scientists-20220324-p5a7ms.html
Binoy Kampmark writes about the Coalition’s obsession with coal.
https://theaimn.com/weaponizing-coal-australia-gives-ukraine-a-gift/
As a whistleblower alleges major failures in Australia’s carbon credit scheme, analysts say a plunge in the price of credits, triggered by a contentious change by the emissions reduction minister Angus Taylor, could last for years.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/24/australias-carbon-credit-scheme-could-take-years-to-recover-from-price-plunge-analysts-say
A Senator’s suggestion of removing rural GPs is a slap in the face to all those who rely on such vital services in remote areas, writes Kerryn Phelps.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/kerryn-phelps-senators-idea-to-scrap-rural-gps-causes-outrage,16182
Republicans have turned the Ketanji Brown Jackson hearing into a political circus, says Ed Pilkington.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/24/ketanji-brown-jackson-republicans-senate-confirmation-hearing
Ketanji Brown Jackson’s SCOTUS confirmation hearing is a disgrace to her qualifications, declares Tayo Bero who says the bad faith questions, the baseless accusations, the time wasting – the nominee’s interrogators do not see her as an equal.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/24/ketanji-brown-jacksons-confirmation-hearing-is-a-disgrace-to-her-qualifications
Alex Hawke’s decision to deport a former US marine has been overturned because he was directed to “sign here” by stickers on his brief without sufficient personal consideration of the case. Joseph Leon McQueen successfully challenged the immigration minister’s refusal to revoke his visa cancellation in a federal court judgment handed down on Wednesday. Guardian Australia understands that Hawke will appeal the decision.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/24/australian-judge-overturns-deportation-of-former-us-marine-citing-alex-hawkes-lack-of-personal-consideration
With investigators still sifting through the wreckage of a tragic Boeing 737 crash in China, an acclaimed Netflix documentary shows the aircraft’s manufacturer should be scrutinised as closely as its operator and flight crew. Marcus Reubenstein examines the deteriorating safety culture at the aviation behemoth.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/pilot-error-no-boeings-tailspin-is-fuelled-by-corporate-greed-and-influence-peddling/
The House select committee investigating the January 6 Capitol attack will consider holding in criminal contempt of Congress next week two of Donald Trump’s most senior White House advisers, Dan Scavino and Peter Navarro.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/24/peter-navarro-dan-scavino-contempt-january-6-panel
More than 400,000 people, including 84,000 children, have been taken against their will to Russia, a Ukrainian official has said.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-says-moscow-is-forcibly-taking-civilians-to-russia-20220325-p5a7sd.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Andrew Dyson
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Jim Pavlidis
Peter Broelman
John Shakespeare
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
Is it just me or am I still not sensing voters waiting for Morrison with baseball bats?
——————
Some are. Some are also waiting for the right wing media pro Morrison avalanche coverage to give them a semi plausible reason to vote for him again.
Shudder to think what QLDrs have to wade through in their daily propaganda brochure. Just the rabid front page ‘exec summaries’ (headline and pic) will be ramping up about now.
@Cronus – yes, they are. Just less of them in QLD. If QLD was a few points stronger for Labor, I doubt you’d be thinking that.
This is NOT 2019. I cannot stress this enough. Even if the polling was EXACTLY the same it still wouldn’t be.
There’s often a state the bucks the trend – in 2007 it was WA. This time may be QLD.
Wow! Scott Morrison is a Coercive Control bully! Look at what he did to Jacquie Lambie:
Every woman in Australia should vote against this guy.
Business as usual for Morrison and Colbeck:
The OZ newspoll story has politics journalist Simon Benson concluding that ‘Miracle Victory’ voters have deserted the Coalition.
Who are those ‘miracle voters’ ? Well Johnny Howard’s “battlers” or “Working families”. That is, from Jan -March the Coalition suffered
– A seven point fall among 35-49 year olds (29% to 44 % Labor);
– A twelve point fall in voters with household incomes of $150k + (33% to 36% Labor)
– A six point drop among 35-49 year olds as preferred PM (39% to 41% Labor);
– A nine point fall in preferred PM for voters with household incomes of $150k+ (43% to 44%);
– A fall among voters without a tertiary education or trade qualification (34% to 44% Labor).
The only demographics in which the Coalition now leads Labor is the over-65 age group and Christian voters. Morrison now trails Albanese as preferred PM in all states except Queensland.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-analysis-miracle-victory-voters-desert-scott-morrison/news-story/095698f9def7febbd6902976b9907d22.
This Newspoll analysis screams “cost of living mate, what are you going to do about that ?”. Whatever it is, it will probably be too little, too late as Scomo is want to do.
The difficulty with predicting a University seat like Chisholm is how many students are in student housing within the seat and are using that as their voting registration address? Probably a lot less than usual on the heels of the pandemic.
Students aside my recollection is also that prepandemic Chisholm was becoming less demographically favourable to the left each election.
Michelle Grattan divulges some interesting information:
Flip the coin and assume the Coalition winning with a majority: the Morrison agenda is sketchy, a version of more of the same. Morrison would be unlikely to transform into the ambitious reformer, regardless of the wishes of some in the business community and in the Liberals’ base.
His approach would likely continue to be a managerial one. As one Liberal man says, “He’s not a policy guy. He’s not a conviction politician. His objective is remaining in power.”
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-what-comes-after-this-grinding-election-campaign-passes-179959
Cronus says:
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 7:32 am
Max
We’re just extraordinarily bloody minded up here.
————————-
Having family in Qld, I’m not going near that one!
RN Breakfast: KR interview 0n Solomon Is. in 5 Min.
What is most astounding to me is the divide between Christians and everyone else.
2PP
Christians: LNP 54, ALP 46
Everyone-else: LNP 38, ALP 62
16 point lead from those who believe in a specific type of imaginary sky creature.
Not sure if links are permitted;
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b483ec920b90ed480f040adb0cfd8654
I mean – Morrison managed to win in 2019 by promising basically nothing and has delivered even less – I don’t see the incentive for that to change should it happen again.
Regardless of when he leaves office – it’s hard to think of what legacy Morrison will leave – other than $1 trillion in debt.
Coorey still jumping. doesn’t even need to ask how high.
There’s a good little Mario.
Given our perception of what’s going on in voterland is largely affected by what we see and hear via the msm and the msm is cheerfully spraying Morrison and his government with gold dust, whether or not the Average Joe is sanding back his best baseball bat is going to be hard to judge.
Once again, we must rely on the polls, which seem to have passed the tests put to them so far.
The Morrison government are evil, even when they seem to be doing the right thing:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/25/coalition-went-directly-to-liberal-donor-whitehaven-to-purchase-coal-for-ukraine
It’s just another way for them to give our money back to their donors.
Thanks again BK, Stirling job.
Meanwhile, ATAGI has decided people over 65 and the immuno-compromised are going to be asked to get a 4th jab to protect them from the new strain of corona virus
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10649617/Covid-19-Australia-Fourth-vaccine-dose-recommended-Australians-65.html?ito=push-notification&ci=P2SSJGEMjk&cri=B3voTTuBkA&si=YeXxE26K_70f&xi=7beded47-be17-43f6-9df7-1a15cd8a7775&ai=10649617
”
In a move that threatens to destabilise the ALP, forces aligned with the late Kimberley Kitching are launching legal action challenging the legitimacy of the federal takeover of the Victorian ALP, explains Paul Sakkal.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/kitching-labor-war-escalates-with-high-court-challenge-to-albanese-takeover-20220324-p5a7qs.html
”
In the opinion of MSM just one factional bun fight and court challenge to ALP federal executive will unravel things for Federal ALP and cause their defeat at next election. They think voter support for federal ALP is brittle. Nothing the LNP has done nor any hardships federal LNP caused to people matter.
They think that people are waiting ALP to make one mistake not to vote for them. No matter how many thousands of mistakes LNP make people vote for them.
No matter how many factional fights and court challenges LNP have it doesn’t matter.
Just heard Bill Shorten (speaking On Channel 9 , but relayed buy Their ABC) that he doesn’t want an enquiry into KK allegations .
Barnaby Joyce’s friend feasting on pork:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/25/nbn-upgrade-to-single-business-in-barnaby-joyces-electorate-to-cost-630000
Increasingly – what the media thinks/wants is mattering less and less.
Dog’s Brunch @ #34 Friday, March 25th, 2022 – 8:24 am
Because he’s behind the High Court challenge instead?
It’s about the mood.
Swinging voters who don’t have political views will walk into polling places or mail in their votes and they will be affected by the cost of giving ramping up massively.
They may not put the blame on the government. They may even be aware of the fact that this is an international phenomenon. But they won’t be happy because their need to meet cost of living pressures has gone up massively.
There will be many who will decide on the spur of the moment that they will take it out on the government of the day because they are in a foul mood.
Apart from Morrison’s habitual bully boy treatment of yet another woman, the other take out message is the sordid nature of secret horse trading you get with the Indies.
“but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).”…
I remain unconvinced that Queenslanders are still supporting Scomo and the federal LNP. Yes, Murdoch has the virtual monopoly on newspapers here, but even Queenslanders know when “enough is enough”. But in any event, I thank Newspoll for that result simply because it will keep the ALP working hard in Queensland, in preparation for the vote. I have just donated $50 for a raffle organised by the ALP, prize: a nice painting of the Story Bridge (iconic landmark of Brisbane)…. 🙂 (fingers crossed!)
This is terrible news for Australia’s national security. Morrison, Dutton and Payne are asleep at the wheel. Space Force was, presumably, an utterly pathetic attempt at a unicorn.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/china-finalising-security-deal-with-solomon-islands-to-base-warships-in-the-pacific
C@
I’d be happy for the High Court to overturn the ban.
We’ve all been investigated/audited. In theory, all the bad apples have been expelled from the Victorian branch.
Why shouldn’t Victorian branch members get their rights back now?
Federal preselections are largely done and dusted, but I’d like to be involved in the State ones.
Even our local branch executive (we have about 15 members…) was appointed by Head Office.
Of course, if you THINK these decisions are best left to the factional warlords, then that’s understandable.
Personally, I think some checks and balances would be good.
Regarding “Christian” voters skewing Right, it all depends upon what the term “Christian” means.
Traditionally, religious Australians identified as “Anglican”/“CoE”, “Catholic”, one or other Protestant denomination. Until recently, those Australians who weren’t particularly religious typically also identified as one or other Christian denomination. Then of course there were Orthodox Christians and followers of non-Christian religions, mostly among post-war migrants and their descendants.
So who are those people calling themselves “Christians” now, rather than one or other of the traditional denominations. Are these mostly followers of the newer and sadly growing American-style fundamentalism, Scott Morrison style Christians, who follow right-wing authoritarian strands of Christianity? The term “Christianists” might be a better term to distinguish them from the more traditional forms.
“There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now ….. is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42.”….
Good news, the generational gap is narrowing…. The oldies are the last bastion for Scomo, losing them will make a difference between a crashing defeat and total Armageddon….
zoomster,
My short comment suggested none of that. So, who’s got the bee in their bonnet today?
However, it seems obvious to me that, considering the behaviour of the Victorian branch over the last couple of weeks, not all of the bad apples have been binned yet. Anyway, I’m sure there’ll be plenty of time between the end of the federal election and the Victorian State election for things to return back to a sanitised normal. 🙂
“I mean – Morrison managed to win in 2019 by promising basically nothing and has delivered even less – I don’t see the incentive for that to change should it happen again.”
My main issue with the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments is that they have had no agenda to speak of, with the possible exception of the horror initial Budget. It has been a wasted almost 9 years.
I’d rather they implement policy even if it is policy I don’t agree with.
When they shockingly won in 2019 I thought that this might be it – they’d finally actually do something. Alas, it got even worse. It is a government incapable of making decisions, and incompetent even just doing the bare minimum.
C@
Not all ‘bad apples’ in any party are there as a result of branch staking. Some ‘bad apples’ get there by their own efforts.
If the aim is to break down the power of the factions – the source of the ‘bad apples’ in the last couple of weeks – then giving power back to ordinary branch members is the obvious solution.
At present, the factions have complete control.
Michael West now running an AAP newsfeed.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/category/aap-news/
I like his quote from Albo on the story on the budget being a pre-election con job:
I assume that should read: The announcement is the end *in* itself. Although ‘of’ works. Just about anything works with these sheisters.
And one more. The garbled idiocy takes your breath away:
Anyway, Michael West is worth a bookmark imo, if not already.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au
If there’s one thing the Morrison government have been doing, it’s raiding the Treasury for the benefit of their mates and donors (same/same).
Itza,
‘In and of itself’ maybe?