The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which most notably provide state-level federal voting intention results from three months’ combined polling with credible sample sizes. These find Labor with a lead of 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last quarter of 2021, a swing of around 6%); 58-42 in Victoria (out from 56-44, a swing of around 3%), 53-47 in Western Australia (in from 55-45, a swing of around 8.5%) and 59-41 in South Australia (out from 55-45, a swing of around 8%), but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).
There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now leads 60-40 among the 35-49s, out from 54-46; is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42. Conversely, the Coalition’s deficit among the 18-34s narrows from 69-31 to 66-34. Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.
Also out yesterday from the News Corp tabloids were nine federal seat polls from KJC Research, who are something of a mystery outfit except to the extent that they achieved a broadly correct result in a seat poll before the 2020 election in Queensland. The polls were conducted last Thursday and Saturday from samples of 800 apiece – the reporting doesn’t specify, but this could only have been accomplished affordably by means of automated phone polling. A paywalled display of the full results is available here.
The results were a fair bit better overall for the Coalition than the general tenor of polling nationally, with an average swing to Labor of around 2% by my reckoning. By my calculation, the results suggest Labor will gain Reid in New South Wales by 54-46 (a swing of 7%), Swan in Western Australia by 57-43 (a 10% swing) and Boothby in South Australia by 55-45 (a 6% swing), and retain Dunkley in Victoria by 60-40 (a 7% swing) and Gilmore in New South Wales by 53-47 (a 0.5% swing). Conversely, the poll suggests the Liberals will retain Bass in Tasmania by 54-46 (a Liberal swing of 3.5%), the Liberal National Party in Queensland will retain Flynn by 61-39 (a swing of 2.5%) and Longman by 56-44 (a swing of 3%), and – reportedly contrary to both parties’ expectations – the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%).
Presumably we’ll be hearing quite a bit from KJC Research over the coming months, because it has also conducted a poll of Wentworth for the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation’s Wentworth Project. As reported in The Conversation – which does make clear that this is an automated phone poll, conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1036 – the poll suggests Liberal member Dave Sharma is under serious pressure from independent candidate Allegra Spender, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 51-49 on two-candidate preferred. The primary votes are 42% for Sharma and 27% for Spender, with Labor on 14%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats and United Australia Party on 3% apiece.
Also out this week were Roy Morgan results on trust in government, which finds the political right dominating a list of the least trusted Australian political figures (Clive Palmer, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson making up the top five) and Gladys Berejiklian the only conservative with a net positive rating, where she stands alongside Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt. A spike in support for the proposition that the government is doing a good job through 2020 and early 2021 continues to evaporate, although it’s not quite back to the levels it was at pre-pandemic. This is based on an SMS survey conducted nearly a month ago from a sample of 1409.
A tectonic shift in right wing politics in France… perhaps a harbinger for the flailing Liberal Party locally?
The rightwing presidential candidate Valérie Pécresse has promised to rewrite the French constitution in order to fight crime and illegal immigration, as she tried to boost a flagging campaign that risks her party imploding if she fails to reach the final round next month.
“I want to show that I’m ready to govern,” Pécresse told journalists in Paris, vowing to “restore order to the streets and to the public accounts”.
Shortly afterwards, Pécresse’s team announced she had Covid and would be stepping back from public appearances for the next few days.
Polls this week showed Pécresse sinking into a damaging fifth position. The mood is palpably tense in Les Républicains, the traditional rightwing party of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, which could break apart amid ideological in-fighting if Pécresse does not make it to the second round final on 24 April.
An Ipsos poll for France Info and Le Parisien this week placed Pécresse as low as 9.5% in the 10 April first round, far behind the centrist president Emmanuel Macron, on 29.5%, and the far-right Marine Le Pen, on 18.5%, who are predicted to make the final. Pécresse has also sunk behind the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on 12.5%, as he gains ground, and the far-right TV pundit Éric Zemmour, on 11%.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/french-rightwing-candidate-focuses-on-immigration-as-she-slips-to-fifth-in-polls?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1648146355
“Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.”
…. Well, this is getting closer and closer to a clean slate victory for the ALP…. unless, of course, the margins suddenly narrow during the campaign, in which case the ghost of 2019 will resurface for the ALP. If the margins remain the same, then the ghost of South Australia will resurface for the Coalition….
C’mon Scomo, call the election, I can’t wait!
C@tmomma says:
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 8:36 am
However, it seems obvious to me that, considering the behaviour of the Victorian branch over the last couple of weeks, not all of the bad apples have been binned yet.
____________________
The new Stability pact of SL, TWU and the SDA needed time to dispose of the Shorten/Somyurek faction as far as possible. As well as Shorten’s ally Kim Carr.
They seem to be on the cusp of accomplishing all that.
zoomster,
As anyone in politics knows, the rank and file are just as factionalised as those who run the factions. Therefore, the aim needs to be, not to get rid of the factions, because we all know that Labor basically has two factions, the Left and the Right, plus some unaligned members here and there, but to have those factions run democratically.
KJC Research (association with Murdoch tabloids….): “the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%)”….. I am more than happy to remind the readers about this prediction (and others) on election night…. 🙂
Absolutely agree with the shocked sentiments on the Solomons. All in the cause of short sighted not giving a shit about tomorrow, or anybody else, especially dark people in grass huts, and all the matters is getting ‘back in the black’ to smoke and mirror the electorate. Shameful, shocking, and while I’m on the run, sinful.
C@tmomma @ #50 Friday, March 25th, 2022 – 8:41 am
You got it!
C@
Our branch doesn’t have a single member of it who belongs to a faction.
It matters. The degree is up for debate. Partisan media allow a party a solid rabid base. Not just in national 2PP numbers but in seats, regions of seats and states. And when elections are often decided by a small percentage of only partly engaged people, partisan media coverage of election campaigns can create or stop the swings that produce an outcome. Murdochs relentless anti ALP coverage in the 2019 election wasnt just all over their front pages, it was mirrored on facebook and numerous web homepages, MSN, etc. And it will often set the agenda and tone for the rest of the media outlets.
And it matters in another way. The tail can wag the dog in this relationship to the point you start to wonder which is the dog.
Of course only the bad apples associated with ML have been removed. God knows how many actual genuine members there are in Vic Labor. Not many I would assume.
When just about all you have left is hope, and your cello.
In the streets of Kharkiv, Ukraine-2022 – Bach Cello Suite no 5 in C minor BWV 1011, Prelude
https://youtu.be/lQHzO11LcKU
As a Queenslander who grew up in the regions, albeit not one who at any stage goes out and talks to /people/ I have no idea why we would be so at odds with the rest of the country on this. Kinda makes me sick to the stomach….
zoomster @ #58 Friday, March 25th, 2022 – 8:49 am
Bravo!
So, now you’re trying to say that, when it comes time to vote for Victorian Party positions, or delegate positions at State Conference, no one from any of the well-known factions in the Victorian ALP canvasses for, or whips the vote among your branch’s members in order to get votes on the floor of conference?
nath
There seems to be an active effort to destroy local branches.
We basically can’t do anything except hand out at election time.
C@ seems to think that’s a good thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4vK6AQen7o
“C@tmommasays:
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 8:44 am
zoomster,
As anyone in politics knows, the rank and file are just as factionalised as those who run the factions. Therefore, the aim needs to be, not to get rid of the factions, because we all know that Labor basically has two factions, the Left and the Right, plus some unaligned members here and there, but to have those factions run democratically.”….
“but to have those factions run democratically”, true, but then let’s not forget that the ALP “right-wingers” vs the ALP “left-wingers” “clash” is currently more food for Murdoch articles than a hard reality of ALP politics. What too many people don’t seem (or want) to realise is that since 2008 the so-called ALP “right-wingers” who were associated with Keating’s Neoliberal ALP reforms, have been shifting away from Neoliberalism (see the political stance of “right-wingers” such as Bill Shorten, Kristina Keneally, Jim Chalmers, Tony Burke, Mark Dreyfus, Jason Clare, Ed Husic, etc.). Hence some of those who were truly leaning towards the old Keatingesque Neoliberalism decided to leave parliament and return to usual life (two outstanding examples: Joel Fitzgibbon, Martin Ferguson, etc.).
So, let’s say that the ALP is all for Capitalism (they are obviously NOT Marxists, whether they are “left” or “right”) but they ALL support Social Democratic, Keynesian Capitalism, not the Neoliberal crap, and this is currently true for both “left” and “right”.
I dare say a 6% swing on primary to Labor in QLD only turning into a 4% swing 2PP is probably under-egging them a touch – even considering ONP being on 8% and them likely not hitting that anyway.
But data is data and broadly tells us QLD is going to be the LNP’s best state.
……….
Whipping the vote. Doesnt sound very democratic.
Partisan media provide their preferred side with the equivalent of tens of millions in free advertising during and between election campaigns.
So what would be the cost of a full page ad on the front page of the Daily Telegraph? Let’s say it’s $100 K. Multiple by 30 for the duration of the campaign. Multiply by 3 for all the free advertising inside the paper from slanted reporting, beat-ups, made-ups and right-wing columnists. Then multiply it by 4 for Murdoch publications throughout the country. There’s $18 million for a start.
C@
Well, it’d be totally pointless at the moment, because no one in our branch gets to vote on anything.
There’s no reason for anyone from any faction to engage with branches at all, whatever way its members might lean.
Steve777
18mill. And there is no such thing as a free lunch.
Zoomster- destruction of relevance of branches is the long and short of it. Speaking from a branch in Queensland, we are largely ignored apart from election campaigning. We rarely get a response to motions from any level within the party.
Today
NSW covid 23,500
Victoria covid 9,200
@steve777 – that’s a massive underestimate.
Yes, it’s $18 million worth of ‘real estate’. But the actual gift if providing advertising that people don’t realise is advertising, that many people think is impartial.
ItzaDream @ #48 Friday, March 25th, 2022 – 7:40 am
I reckon “end of itself” is right on the money. It conveys that, as soon as the message is finished, there is no more. It disappears in a puff of smoke.
Meanwhile Donald Trump must be getting mighty nervous. He better watch out. He may stroke out from the stress.
Jon ROD R SANCTIONS EVASION dba GSACHS Badalamenti
@jbadomics
·
3h
Getting out in front of forthcoming Sussmann developments
Pure projection + well poisoning + tainting jury pools = much mob very Gambino
Quote Tweet
Jan Wolfe
@JanNWolfe
· 4h
Donald Trump has filed a sprawling RICO case against Hillary Clinton and others, alleging a conspiracy to make him look compromised by Russia.
(Fact check: A GOP-led Senate panel found Russia used Manafort and WikiLeaks to try to help Trump’s campaign)
I assume that the Greens will revise their analysis of Australian security situation as a result of China moving into the Solomons and that, having done so, they will do what the Germans Greens have done, and seek to double Australian defence spending.
Now that Putin and Russia have become the pariahs of the world. Trump is getting very nervous
“Furtive Lawngnome says:
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 7:33 am
For the out-of-staters: Do a google news search for Annastacia Palaszczuk if you want an idea of why Labor’s vote has softened over the last month or whatever.”….
I am not sure how much the ALP vote has softened in Qld “over the last month”, but if you want to do a search, just search the articles about Qld politics published by the Murdoch “Courier” and “The Australian”, the two major newspapers read by average Queenslanders….
But hey, we will see what happens at the federal election, I am hopeful that the national campaign of Voter De-Moronisation, that started after the 2019 Federal election shock, will produce some very interesting results (helped by ScoMo’s and his Coalition government incompetence on the economy, public services, salaries, real jobs, 2019 bushfires, Covid pandemic and the recent Qld-NSW floods…).
Unusual for the Newspoll breakdowns released on Thursday night/Friday mornings
Also another interesting development.
USA Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is out of action due to ill health,
This is all happening at the same time, his wife Ginni Thomas is coming under more scrutiny with respect to her involvement in Jan 6 attempting to overturning the election.
You can’t make this shit up,
OK, OK, I encourage everyone to ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’ regarding the Newspoll quarterly in Qld.
My first reason? Even this soft-looking figure represents a 4.5% swing to Labor, not to be sneezed at. Maybe Dutton would survive (just).
My second reason? Have a look at Bludgertrack. It has Labor’s national 2PP at 56 and primary just over 40. For Qld it has Labor at 50.6 2PP (a swing of about 9%) and primary at 34.5.
Qld has lots of retirees. Labor doesn’t need to win most Qld seats (and rarely has) to comfortably form govt.
Don’t focus on one poll, even a ‘quarterly.’ The trend is the thing. If Bludgertrack saw the ALP 2PP decline sharply over the next month, that’s the time to be concerned (it would also be a bit late to change the trend, so, sorry.)
The movement in Bludgertrack’s estimate of Labor’s Qld 2PP and primary vote has been improving since November (as has the primary vote estimate.)
The story is similar with Bludgertrack’s national estimates. It’s just that Qld doesn’t have as high a level of support for the Federal ALP. Even the 2007 Rudd-slide only gave the ALP 15 of the then 29 Qld seats – and that was with a Qld Leader!
As others have noted, the main benefit of ‘soft’ numbers like this Newspoll quarterly is to remind ALP members of the importance of campaigning for every vote, everywhere.
We now have the demise of the high profile Houston who promoted the “prosperity gospel” mantra- perhaps this will cause some disillusioned Hillsong followers and other happy-clappers to question their RW interpretation of christianity.
I’m so disappointed that taylormade has not seen fit to comment on the shit show that is his beloved vic state liberal party.
I have to disagree with the idea that the government has no ideology. That’s quite what’s wrong with it. They’ve got an ideology, and it’s that the government should do sfa. “Small government” means flying to Hawaii during bushfires because the community can do it; government needn’t interfere. It means cutting taxes because businesses can do it; the government needn’t interfere. It means the government not telling you what to do during a global pandemic. It means dropping foreign aid because it’s just a loony left drag on the budget. It means random people in tinnies picking up trapped flood victims.
The government has been pursuing their ideology since the day Morrison got in. The fact that it looks like incompetence is just a mismatch between your expectations and his delivery, which is why he felt the need to apologise that you have expectations. Also, really conveniently for a small government ideology, he’s incompetent, but that’s a different matter.
But there’s a big difference between Morrison’s small government ideology and previous small government positions taken by the government. Previous small governments have generally put the interest of voters or the base before the ideology; if small government is bad for business, then the government was big government. If small government means leaving Australians stranded on rooftops, the government was big government. But Morrison will not budge.
No wonder blue ribbon Liberal seats are under threat. Ideological parties just don’t gel with our political system.
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2022/03/22/dutton-says-new-australian-space-force-will-search-galaxy-for-unauthorised-boats/
Dutton might also use Beam Me Up Scotty Force to map China’s move from Hainan Island, 4,000km from Australia, through the South China Sea and now to within around 900km of Australia’s territory in Norfolk Island.
I reckon Clarence Thomas may want to stay unwell indefinitely,
Tweet
See new Tweets
Conversation
CBS News
@CBSNews
BREAKING: CBS News and The Washington Post have obtained copies of numerous texts between Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ wife, Ginni Thomas, and Pres. Trump’s White House chief of staff Mark Meadows about efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
Simon Katich @ #65 Friday, March 25th, 2022 – 9:01 am
Thanks SK. Really powerful cinema. Brody (the pianist) was Jewish – his mother raised Catholic but she had a Jewish mother. There’s a wonderful long single take (1:40 – 3:30; I’ve had to watch it several times now) where you follow him into the room and watch the playing start, completely impressing the reality of being there. Polanski is a conundrum.
citizen at 9.20am
Being a left-wing Christian, I have no confidence in the likelihood that many Hillsongers might question their interpretation of the faith as a result of the Brian Houston thing.
Their view of faith places the responsibility on each individual to be ‘righteous’ in order to receive blessing. If you get sick, pray for healing but don’t recover, you’ve got a spiritual problem separating you from God etc etc.
It is a magnificent way to discourage people from questioning basically anything.
Some people are likely to leave Hillsong over Houston, just not masses of them.
New South Wales :
NSW recorded seven COVID-19 deaths in the 24 hours to 4pm yesterday.
There were 23,702 positive cases, including 13,514 RATs and 10,188 PCR tests.
There are 1,182 people with the virus in hospital and 43 in Intensive care.
Only 59 per cent of people in the state have received three doses of a COVID vaccine.
……………………………………………………………………………………………
Victoria :
Victoria has recorded nine new COVID deaths and 9,244 new cases.
There are 253 people in hospital, including 19 in intensive care.
Four people are on ventilators.
There are now 54,666 active COVID cases in the state, and 64.6 per cent of adults have received three doses of a vaccine.
Victoria says:
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 9:20 am
I’m so disappointed that taylormade has not seen fit to comment on the shit show that is his beloved vic state liberal party.
—
His paymasters have clearly issued a ‘no comment’ instruction to all their human bots. Or perhaps taylormade IS David Davis.
Of course the Coalition has an ideology.
Get power; hold power; lie, steal and don’t get caught; trash the weak and bribe the strong.
somethinglikethat
Lol!
sprocket_says:
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 8:41 am
A tectonic shift in right wing politics in France… perhaps a harbinger for the flailing Liberal Party locally?
The rightwing presidential candidate Valérie Pécresse has promised to rewrite the French constitution in order to fight crime and illegal immigration, as she tried to boost a flagging campaign that risks her party imploding if she fails to reach the final round next month.
“I want to show that I’m ready to govern,” Pécresse told journalists in Paris, vowing to “restore order to the streets and to the public accounts”.
Shortly afterwards, Pécresse’s team announced she had Covid and would be stepping back from public appearances for the next few days.
Polls this week showed Pécresse sinking into a damaging fifth position. The mood is palpably tense in Les Républicains, the traditional rightwing party of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, which could break apart amid ideological in-fighting if Pécresse does not make it to the second round final on 24 April.
”
So the Socialist party of Francois Mitterand and Francois Hollande and Les Républicains, the traditional rightwing party of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, will be no more after this French National election.
These parties dominated French Political landscape after WW2 till 2016. And just like that they are gone.
I thought Macron will also be one term President. But it appears he is on path to 2nd term victory.
How many Robocop suicides funded this?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/25/nbn-upgrade-to-single-business-in-barnaby-joyces-electorate-to-cost-630000
Questioning Faith beliefs begets the great unravelling. It takes great courage.
Noting the comments about the LRP leading up here in Qld- undoubtedly there is a strong undercurrent of support here, but I question whether it’s across the board or manifesting in regional Qld. Yes, some regional electorates enabled Morrison to cross the finishing line first, but 2022 appears different. There was little support for change in urban areas in ’19, but I wonder how much that has changed. I wouldn’t be ruling out some seats changing this time.
As usual, the CM propaganda rag is in full swing, but it is severely diminished in influence, apart from regional areas.
My concern is the influence of Stokes’ Ch 7 and Costello’s Ch 9 news services. They have come out strongly anti- AP over the integrity story. They could have some influence in urban areas.
A comment was made this morning on PB that Qlds support for the LRP may be linked to that integrity issue.
Our Dear Leader recently denied the SA elections were fought on federal issues, but todays comment wondered whether the State integrity here issue was an influence on federal voting trends.
The old ” to be or not to be” question.
I reckon that if a State election was held next weekend, AP and her team would still win, albeit with some seats lost- after all, she is in her third term. I don’t think Morrison , in any shape or form could pull the LRP over the line here.
Qld will not save Morrison this time -even if the voting patterns keep the present status quo.
The battle royal is in the South and West of the nation.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 9:09 am
I assume that the Greens will revise their analysis of Australian security situation as a result of China moving into the Solomons and that, having done so, they will do what the Germans Greens have done, and seek to double Australian defence spending.
I would love to see what goes on in your head.
Australia isn’t Germany in this situation, we are Russia.
China reaching a peaceful diplomatic agreement with the Solomon Islands to station troops there isn’t like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it’s like the eastward expansion of NATO.
So if we react by beating our chest, increasing arms funding etc, we aren’t doing what Germany did post Russian invasion of Ukraine, we are doing what Russia did pre Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Think before you type
You don’t need massive amounts of skills to keep robbing banks (that is, our Treasury). You need to provide cover, and a getaway if needed (although that doesn’t seem to be an issue with professional high-level robbers).
I don’t know if that’s an ideology. I’m not sure that the L/NP have at the front of centre a dislike for other types of people. If it was a comparison between: hating certain types but noone financially gains; and giving money to mates and donors, but other people aren’t hurt, I think they would concentrate on giving money to donors, and do that with a smile.
I don’t even think that they care whether we believe they are incompetent.
I don’t think anyone said the Government doesn’t have an ideology- it’s arguably since the 2014 Budget, they haven’t had an agenda and don’t have anything to show from 8.5 years in Govt.
The reaction to the Sollies isn’t chest-thumping and panic, it’s to re-engage meaningfully in the Pacific through diplomacy and strategic foreign aid, so we (and others for that mind) don’t leave a vacuum to be filled.