Polls: Newspoll breakdowns, seat polls and trust in government

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which most notably provide state-level federal voting intention results from three months’ combined polling with credible sample sizes. These find Labor with a lead of 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last quarter of 2021, a swing of around 6%); 58-42 in Victoria (out from 56-44, a swing of around 3%), 53-47 in Western Australia (in from 55-45, a swing of around 8.5%) and 59-41 in South Australia (out from 55-45, a swing of around 8%), but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).

There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now leads 60-40 among the 35-49s, out from 54-46; is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42. Conversely, the Coalition’s deficit among the 18-34s narrows from 69-31 to 66-34. Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.

Also out yesterday from the News Corp tabloids were nine federal seat polls from KJC Research, who are something of a mystery outfit except to the extent that they achieved a broadly correct result in a seat poll before the 2020 election in Queensland. The polls were conducted last Thursday and Saturday from samples of 800 apiece – the reporting doesn’t specify, but this could only have been accomplished affordably by means of automated phone polling. A paywalled display of the full results is available here.

The results were a fair bit better overall for the Coalition than the general tenor of polling nationally, with an average swing to Labor of around 2% by my reckoning. By my calculation, the results suggest Labor will gain Reid in New South Wales by 54-46 (a swing of 7%), Swan in Western Australia by 57-43 (a 10% swing) and Boothby in South Australia by 55-45 (a 6% swing), and retain Dunkley in Victoria by 60-40 (a 7% swing) and Gilmore in New South Wales by 53-47 (a 0.5% swing). Conversely, the poll suggests the Liberals will retain Bass in Tasmania by 54-46 (a Liberal swing of 3.5%), the Liberal National Party in Queensland will retain Flynn by 61-39 (a swing of 2.5%) and Longman by 56-44 (a swing of 3%), and – reportedly contrary to both parties’ expectations – the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%).

Presumably we’ll be hearing quite a bit from KJC Research over the coming months, because it has also conducted a poll of Wentworth for the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation’s Wentworth Project. As reported in The Conversation – which does make clear that this is an automated phone poll, conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1036 – the poll suggests Liberal member Dave Sharma is under serious pressure from independent candidate Allegra Spender, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 51-49 on two-candidate preferred. The primary votes are 42% for Sharma and 27% for Spender, with Labor on 14%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats and United Australia Party on 3% apiece.

Also out this week were Roy Morgan results on trust in government, which finds the political right dominating a list of the least trusted Australian political figures (Clive Palmer, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson making up the top five) and Gladys Berejiklian the only conservative with a net positive rating, where she stands alongside Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt. A spike in support for the proposition that the government is doing a good job through 2020 and early 2021 continues to evaporate, although it’s not quite back to the levels it was at pre-pandemic. This is based on an SMS survey conducted nearly a month ago from a sample of 1409.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe