The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which most notably provide state-level federal voting intention results from three months’ combined polling with credible sample sizes. These find Labor with a lead of 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last quarter of 2021, a swing of around 6%); 58-42 in Victoria (out from 56-44, a swing of around 3%), 53-47 in Western Australia (in from 55-45, a swing of around 8.5%) and 59-41 in South Australia (out from 55-45, a swing of around 8%), but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).
There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now leads 60-40 among the 35-49s, out from 54-46; is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42. Conversely, the Coalition’s deficit among the 18-34s narrows from 69-31 to 66-34. Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.
Also out yesterday from the News Corp tabloids were nine federal seat polls from KJC Research, who are something of a mystery outfit except to the extent that they achieved a broadly correct result in a seat poll before the 2020 election in Queensland. The polls were conducted last Thursday and Saturday from samples of 800 apiece – the reporting doesn’t specify, but this could only have been accomplished affordably by means of automated phone polling. A paywalled display of the full results is available here.
The results were a fair bit better overall for the Coalition than the general tenor of polling nationally, with an average swing to Labor of around 2% by my reckoning. By my calculation, the results suggest Labor will gain Reid in New South Wales by 54-46 (a swing of 7%), Swan in Western Australia by 57-43 (a 10% swing) and Boothby in South Australia by 55-45 (a 6% swing), and retain Dunkley in Victoria by 60-40 (a 7% swing) and Gilmore in New South Wales by 53-47 (a 0.5% swing). Conversely, the poll suggests the Liberals will retain Bass in Tasmania by 54-46 (a Liberal swing of 3.5%), the Liberal National Party in Queensland will retain Flynn by 61-39 (a swing of 2.5%) and Longman by 56-44 (a swing of 3%), and – reportedly contrary to both parties’ expectations – the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%).
Presumably we’ll be hearing quite a bit from KJC Research over the coming months, because it has also conducted a poll of Wentworth for the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation’s Wentworth Project. As reported in The Conversation – which does make clear that this is an automated phone poll, conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1036 – the poll suggests Liberal member Dave Sharma is under serious pressure from independent candidate Allegra Spender, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 51-49 on two-candidate preferred. The primary votes are 42% for Sharma and 27% for Spender, with Labor on 14%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats and United Australia Party on 3% apiece.
Also out this week were Roy Morgan results on trust in government, which finds the political right dominating a list of the least trusted Australian political figures (Clive Palmer, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson making up the top five) and Gladys Berejiklian the only conservative with a net positive rating, where she stands alongside Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt. A spike in support for the proposition that the government is doing a good job through 2020 and early 2021 continues to evaporate, although it’s not quite back to the levels it was at pre-pandemic. This is based on an SMS survey conducted nearly a month ago from a sample of 1409.
Shellbell @ #1541 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 4:18 pm
Three actually. There is also, The Rock.
Some good final news from the SA election preference and postal counting. Boothby is looking good.
“Peter Malinauskas
@PMalinauskasMP
·
23h
It’s official
Congratulations to Catherine Hutchesson on winning the seat of Waite & becoming the first Labor member for the seat since it was created in 1991.
What an amazing result for Catherine, who never gave up and has campaigned tirelessly for the past two elections.”
Late Riser:
Charles Sturt University and Kapooka Army Recruit Training Base?
https://youtu.be/_bmS4kCV4jg
Rex Douglas at 4:11 pm
😆 If only you could have shown those two that video beforehand. Something for them to aspire to.
SA bludgers (Wat, Socrates, etc): is Nick Xenophon still likely to win a senate seat if he personally runs? SA Best got absolutely vaporised in the state election last weekend, and Centre Alliance didn’t do much better in 2019 federally – I get that the man himself is popular in SA, but they can’t be good omens.
Concetta FW was one of Alston’s droogs as I recall. Set on the ABC to demoralise it, which they eventually did.
Andrew Earlwood
Sorry I missed your earlier strategy contribution which you posted just before I did. I agree 100%. Australia needs BOTH a short term and long term defence strategy.
The need for missiles to actually fire at an attacker a la Ukraine’s current example, is obvious and acquiring the JSM and LRASM fits the bill.
Under AUKUS we could negotiate local manufacturing of them and/or Tomahawks. Lockheed Martin and Boeing both have local facilities and Morrison made much of his “sovereign guided weapons” announcement this time in 2021. So far it is nothing more than an RFI, typical of all the Liberals have failed to achieve in defence. So our non-built ships and subs would have non-built weapons to fire.
https://www.defence.gov.au/project/sovereign-guided-weapons-and-explosive-ordnance-enterprise
As per Chronus’ comments, for something so obviously urgent I am not against buying an initial set of SSMs from elsewhere; Tomahawks are about $2 million US each so 200 might cost you half a billion $; cheap in this league.
We might also consider Korea and Japan at this point. Both make their own SSMs and torpedos, and both are reportedly high quality. Again, for something we might use up a lot of, local manufacture of missiles and ammunition would seem sensible. Boeing in Qld have successfully made their “Loyal Wingman” a sophisticated UAV. Why not much simpler SSMs? Sage here in SA could make the circuitry.
BREAKING: Morrison to announce to announce billion dollar new “Scorpion” air defence weapons purchase in tomorrows budget amid China/Solomon Islands deal.
Wagga Wagga , it’s claim to fame. Featuring in a Spike Milligan title 🙂
Spike Milligan – ‘From Woy Woy to Wagga Wagga
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSzQ67QT_Qo
Puff
The basic Australian Army structure has three levels below commissioned officers, soldiers (at the bottom) then non-commissioned officers (NCOs – Corporals and Sergeants) then Warrant Officers. NCO’s are generally considered the backbone of the Army. In short, NCOs generally supervise and lead enlisted soldiers and aid the commissioned officer corps. Warrant Officers are the senior soldier ranks.
Australian Army officers receive a commission that is personally signed by the Minister for Defence and the Governor-General of Australia, acting for the Monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, of Australia.
Warrant officers are appointed by a warrant which is signed by the Chief of the Army.
Crikey certainly has the LNP and billionaires media pegged:
By BERNARD KEANE March 28, 2022 16
A quirk of polling timing might save Scott Morrison from the ignominy of being dumped before the election. There’s no Newspoll this week — it’s been held off for the budget.
A disastrous Newspoll — bear in mind Morgan produced a staggering 58-42 result for Labor last week, despite the Canberra press gallery engaged in a campaign of lies over late senator Kimberley Kitching — would have both overshadowed the budget and set tongues wagging about the need to replace Morrison. The PM, even by the admission of News Corp stenographers, stinks with voters.
Indeed Morrison is so toxic he won’t be allowed near under-threat Sydney Liberal seats. That adds to the list of places Morrison can’t risk visiting, which include bushfire- and flood-affected communities. One doubts he’d fare particularly well in Adelaide either.
caf says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 4:31 pm
Late Riser:
Asking for someone (me) who lives in Brisbane. What’s in Wagga Wagga?
Charles Sturt University and Kapooka Army Recruit Training Base?’
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The longest drive through any country town in NSW.
Rex Douglas at 4:46 pm
Which by SOP we shall end up paying $5 Billion. This deal must have been waiting in the wings for an opportune moment for Bullshit Man to ‘announcify’ . Or are such national defence decisions made on the fly ?
Bird of Paradise
Unless Xenophon gets a spot on the top line of the ballot paper, I think it would be very difficult for him.
Rex Douglas
Scorpius Electromagnetic Warfare System (Israel)
To those who are unaware, Scorpius uses active electronically scanned array (AESA) technology to scan the entire sky and can send narrowly targeted beams – “at any wavelength, any frequency, any direction against specific targets without interfering with anybody else” – that disrupt enemy electronic sensors, data communications, navigation and radar.
Bird of Paradox
“SA bludgers (Wat, Socrates, etc): is Nick Xenophon still likely to win a senate seat if he personally runs? SA Best got absolutely vaporised in the state election last weekend, and Centre Alliance didn’t do much better in 2019 federally – I get that the man himself is popular in SA, but they can’t be good omens.”
Good question. I have seen no relevant polls. Xenephon’s media profile has been zero for two years. His Senate successor Rex Patrick has been far more visible.
I would say his chances are low, but if the SA Libs and PHON both poll poorly Federally he may hope to survive off angry conservative voters who won’t vote Labor. Best case he will be going for the 5th or 6th spot though, and those are very hard fought. I’d rate him much less than a 50/50 chance.
Morrison is very welcome to visit Gilmore. Even Gladys is paying a brief visit on Saturday morning lol
poroti @ #1566 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 3:50 pm
Maybe. But the real point is at least that’s significantly more useful than submarines. Perhaps we can cancel the 8 subs and get 14x as many anti-air systems instead. If they can also target surface vessels as well, even better.
‘Puff, The Magic Dragon. says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 3:22 pm
On the subject of NCOs, can someone explain what they are and what is their importance in a war? USA and Australian NCOs are compared favourably against Russian NCOs and I am wondering what the differences are.’
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It stands for Non Commissioned Officer and usually applies to warrant officers, sergeants major, sergeants and corporals. They are the in-between ranks between officers and soldiers. One of the jobs of sergeants is to help lieutenants who are fresh from training. Smart lieutenants listen carefully to their vastly more experienced sergeants. If a lieutenant is killed, sergeants will usually take over leadership of the unit. This means that the unit does not stop and wait for orders (as typically happens with Russian infantry units when their officers are killed). The unit continues to act and react according to the circumstances.
@Scott
Maybe.
But if there is even a hint of a bounce, you can bet the media ( and our Liberal mates on PB) will be shouting from the rooftops.
And Morrison? ” Hallelujah! The Narrowing!!”
Scorpius YouTube video
I have little information on it’s effectiveness in battle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ziGG89M2ak
Breaking: Bandt and Steele-John have just announced that they don’t know what Scorpius is but they are against the purchase. ‘We couldn’t find it in our peace studies manual so it can’t be good.’
ar
In which case defence procurement SOP means they will be delivered way off in the future after long delays due to having to overcome degraded performance from customisations we requested.
Boerwar says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:01 pm
‘Puff, The Magic Dragon. says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 3:22 pm
On the subject of NCOs, can someone explain what they are and what is their importance in a war? USA and Australian NCOs are compared favourably against Russian NCOs and I am wondering what the differences are.’
_____________
You just have to watch Platoon to see that the NCO’s run things.
Bird of paradox @ #1556 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 4:12 pm
Good question. Short answer: I don’t know.
Longer answer: I’m not sure what Xenophon’s current personal popularity is in SA but I think it might be fair to say he still holds a bit of it. In the examples you’ve given about Centre Alliance and SA Best, it should be noted that both campaigns very notably did not feature Xenophon when their vote collapsed (the exception being Sharkie who enjoys re-election more as a quasi-independent than being a part of a centrist third party), so I don’t think their collapses (or that of John Darley while we’re at it) is necessarily a sign of Xenophon’s decline in appeal, at least not enough to make him a non-event.
What I will say is this: it is too late for him to form a new political party to run under, so he will have to run on one of the independent tickets at the end of the Senate ballot which might well harm his vote at the election. I am not sure it will harm him enough to stop him from being elected though. I think the other problem he faces is he’s been out of the spotlight for the last few years and suddenly he is reappearing just weeks out from election day. That’s a very brief campaign. Perhaps he might be able to milk a “They’re as bad as each other” factor.
As far as I am concerned, there are three questions arising here:
1. Will he win a Senate race? My guess: It’s very possible
2. Can he win by enough to pull his running mate up with him: Much less likely this time but not impossible.
3. If he wins, who will it be at the expense of? If it’s just him, that’s a difficult one and may fall down to who’s winning the election over all. If there is a collapse of the Liberal vote, then he could very easily take the spot you would normally see a third Liberal elected to – similar to 2007. However, it’s also possible he takes the spot that is normally won by a Green/third Labor.
If he and his running mate both win, I’d expect one to be elected at the expense of the third Liberal and the other at the expense of the Greens/third Labor (although a scenario similar to 2013 where Labor only won one spot and the Greens won the other is possible, substituting Family First for his running mate, but I think is least likely because that year was terrible for Labor’s vote.)
Sorry about the long post and the evasive answer. It’s a bit hard to give any concrete analysis on it at this time.
Effective at winning elections? Deployment unnecessary.
Jim Molan will be 78 by the time he finishes his next term in the senate. Bloody boomers are never going to concede the field to the younger generations. Not that CFW is any loss. What would be funny is if CFW tries to do a below the line voting effort.
A 3% fall in the senate vote for LNP might make the third spot a losing position anyway.
EDIT: Just saw this. Classic….
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sidelined-liberal-senator-accuses-party-of-its-own-mean-girls-culture-20220328-p5a8nc.html
Will ScoMo have an inquiry?
Scrotimo won’t be welcome to campaign in Bass or Braddon either, not unless they want the punters to be reminded of the Liberals attempts to use stand over Maam tactics to stop Archer {Bass} crossing the floor twice on a National ICAC and Religious Discrimination bills or Jackie Lambie’s secret deal with Scomo to send asylum seekers to New Zealand. Lambie lives in the seat of Braddon.
Don’t expect Scrotimo to be campaigning in Tasmania any time soon and if he does it won’t be anywhere near Bridget Archer or Gavin Pearce.
@Getty – I expect much wailing and gnashing of teeth here in the event.
But as KB points out – legitimate Budget bounces are rare and not usually outside the usual flux you’d expect in random sample polling.
Boerwar
Unofficial but correct . The author of that information was indeed a greatful recipient of good early advice and leadership. By a fluke of fate, my original platoon sergeant from 1989 stayed in the Army beyond his twenty years and joined me as my company sergeant major 11 years later when we landed in East Timor in Oct 1999.
B.S. Fairman says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:08 pm
‘…Bloody boomers are never going to concede the field to the younger generations….’
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Age and experience will thrash youth and enthusiasm every single time. Suffer in your socks.
BSA Bob @ #1555 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 4:43 pm
Being asked to choose between C F-Won the one hand and Jim Molan on the other is a bit like being asked to choose between two sandwiches with a brown filling, only one less thick than the other.
Boerwar at 5:01 pm
Are you sure about that ? I saw a piece on the Russian army a while back and how senior officers would often be up the pointy end. This was in Syria so recent. They reckon the up side is it means the troops know that the guy ordering them in to danger will share some of it . They also mentioned that should the officer be killed things are geared so that people step straight into his shoes.
‘Cronus says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:12 pm
Boerwar
unofficial but correct. The author of that information was indeed a greatful recipient of good early advice and leadership. By a fluke of fate, my original platoon sergeant from 1989 stayed in the Army beyond his twenty years and joined me as my company sergeant major 11 years later when we landed in East Timor in Oct 1999.’
—————————-
Lucky you + smart you. Dad was a sergeant in the KNIL. Timor was the only war I did not protest against, going back to, and including, the Vietnam War. I was grateful that the Yanks had a Carrier Task Force close enough to matter.
I’d say Morrison has to be no worse than 53-47 behind at the start of the campaign to have a realistic chance of winning.
So whats that 2 points on the current news poll 2PP or a drop of around 3 points on the Labor primary from 41 to roughly 38. Given Albo and Labor was polling roughly 38’s before Christmas that’s certainly achievable but would need absolutely everything to go right in the next week or so.
Given ScoMo’s run of bad luck since January that seems unlikely though.
‘poroti says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:16 pm
Boerwar at 5:01 pm
(as typically happens with Russian infantry units when their officers are killed).
Are you sure about that ? I saw a piece on the Russian army a while back and how senior officers would often be up the pointy end. This was in Syria so recent. They reckon the up side is it means the troops know that the guy ordering them in to danger will share some of it . They also mentioned that should the officer be killed things are geared so that people step straight into his shoes.’
———————–
I am not 100% sure. But am picking up bits and pieces that tend to indicate that it might mostly be right.
Lars, Morrison hasn’t had a run of bad luck since January, he has continued his run of bad management, bullshit, and corruption.
The voters have woken up.
Sandman
“Scrotimo won’t be welcome to campaign in Bass or Braddon either”
Is this a reference to the coming Liberal Scomocalypse?
Luck is the what you call something that you didn’t see coming. I’ve also been told, quite earnestly sometimes, that you make your own luck. Make of that what you can.
Late riser,
Wagga Wagga is basically Brisbane without the awful humidity and horrendous Queenslanders. About as much goes on there as in Brisbane, and in both cities the place to be on any given afternoon is the Qantas Club departures lounge.
Burgey. Always leaving, never arriving?
Boerwar
When in Lebanon I noted the Hezbollah upgraded their IEDs from tripwires to laser/light beams to trigger them. The Israelis subsequently used a very basic device (looked like a giant whisk attached to the top of a light armoured vehicle) to prevent/diffuse the IEDs when within range. I wonder if it was the precursor to Scorpius? Then the Hezbollah returned to tripwires, much more reliable.
Burgey says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:25 pm
Late riser,
Wagga Wagga is basically Brisbane without the awful humidity and horrendous Queenslanders. About as much goes on there as in Brisbane, and in both cities the place to be on any given afternoon is the Qantas Club departures lounge.
_____________________
Oh I don’t know about that. Those Queenslander houses give the place a charm other cities don’t have.
Boerwar at 5:18 pm
There are a lot of ‘bits and pieces’ going about that just retreads decades old stereotypes.
Hollywood, film industry & the Academy .. full of pretentious prats…
Only marginally surpassed by the music industry.. excellent role models.. not.
The budget sell was pushed from top spot in Ch 10 news by the Academy awards on-stage altercation.
The budget bribe coverage was notable for two things: (1) a video shot of Morrison’s rear end climbing into the cab of a piece of machinery; (2) PvO playing footage of Morrison’s inability to count (wtte) “I have done 8 budgets, 4 as PM and 3 as Treasurer”.
As the entire budget seems to have been leaked already, really no point even watching tomorrow night, assuming anyone can sit through 30 minutes of Frydenberg and the cheering peanut gallery behind him.
Bludgers, it looks like there will be no Labor candidate in the seat of Berowra, they can’t get anyone to put their hand up to run in what is essentially a lost cause(ultra safe Liberal area where I live)