The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which most notably provide state-level federal voting intention results from three months’ combined polling with credible sample sizes. These find Labor with a lead of 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last quarter of 2021, a swing of around 6%); 58-42 in Victoria (out from 56-44, a swing of around 3%), 53-47 in Western Australia (in from 55-45, a swing of around 8.5%) and 59-41 in South Australia (out from 55-45, a swing of around 8%), but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).
There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now leads 60-40 among the 35-49s, out from 54-46; is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42. Conversely, the Coalition’s deficit among the 18-34s narrows from 69-31 to 66-34. Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.
Also out yesterday from the News Corp tabloids were nine federal seat polls from KJC Research, who are something of a mystery outfit except to the extent that they achieved a broadly correct result in a seat poll before the 2020 election in Queensland. The polls were conducted last Thursday and Saturday from samples of 800 apiece – the reporting doesn’t specify, but this could only have been accomplished affordably by means of automated phone polling. A paywalled display of the full results is available here.
The results were a fair bit better overall for the Coalition than the general tenor of polling nationally, with an average swing to Labor of around 2% by my reckoning. By my calculation, the results suggest Labor will gain Reid in New South Wales by 54-46 (a swing of 7%), Swan in Western Australia by 57-43 (a 10% swing) and Boothby in South Australia by 55-45 (a 6% swing), and retain Dunkley in Victoria by 60-40 (a 7% swing) and Gilmore in New South Wales by 53-47 (a 0.5% swing). Conversely, the poll suggests the Liberals will retain Bass in Tasmania by 54-46 (a Liberal swing of 3.5%), the Liberal National Party in Queensland will retain Flynn by 61-39 (a swing of 2.5%) and Longman by 56-44 (a swing of 3%), and – reportedly contrary to both parties’ expectations – the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%).
Presumably we’ll be hearing quite a bit from KJC Research over the coming months, because it has also conducted a poll of Wentworth for the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation’s Wentworth Project. As reported in The Conversation – which does make clear that this is an automated phone poll, conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1036 – the poll suggests Liberal member Dave Sharma is under serious pressure from independent candidate Allegra Spender, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 51-49 on two-candidate preferred. The primary votes are 42% for Sharma and 27% for Spender, with Labor on 14%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats and United Australia Party on 3% apiece.
Also out this week were Roy Morgan results on trust in government, which finds the political right dominating a list of the least trusted Australian political figures (Clive Palmer, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson making up the top five) and Gladys Berejiklian the only conservative with a net positive rating, where she stands alongside Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt. A spike in support for the proposition that the government is doing a good job through 2020 and early 2021 continues to evaporate, although it’s not quite back to the levels it was at pre-pandemic. This is based on an SMS survey conducted nearly a month ago from a sample of 1409.
nath
We had always lived in old Queenslanders, we love their charm, but after moving into an open-plan modern build in semi-rural Brisbane we’ll never go back.
Those two actors are showing more fight than the Morrison Government.
Roo evacuation
https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1507880805716086784
Oh dear!
‘Cronus says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:29 pm
Boerwar
When in Lebanon I noted the Hezbollah upgraded their IEDs from tripwires to laser/light beams to trigger them. The Israelis subsequently used a very basic device (looked like a giant whisk attached to the top of a light armoured vehicle) to prevent/diffuse the IEDs when within range. I wonder if it was the precursor to Scorpius? Then the Hezbollah returned to tripwires, much more reliable.’
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I don’t know. I recall a few things. Hezbollah had infantry-level night vision which turned out to be a very unpleasant surprise for IDF infantry. They were well trained and extremely motivated. The hills must have looked like Swiss cheese with all the tunnel systems. As you have previously noted the steep hills and narrow valleys were not good tank country. What I particularly recall were the 155mm teams back inside Israel: in the open, in their shorts, sunnies on, with pallets of ammo lying about in the open. It was like a Sunday afternoon game of sport for those guys.
‘poroti says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:30 pm
Boerwar at 5:18 pm
There are a lot of ‘bits and pieces’ going about that just retreads decades old stereotypes.’
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Agreed. Have I been dudded? It would not be the first time!
“Russian tankers carrying oil chemicals and products are increasingly concealing their movements, a phenomenon that some maritime experts warn could signal attempts to evade unprecedented sanctions prompted by the invasion of Ukraine. In the week ended March 25, there were at least 33 occurrences of so-called “dark activity” – operating while on-board systems to transmit their locations are turned off – by Russian tankers, said Windward, an Israeli consultancy that specialises in maritime risk. That’s more than double the weekly average of 14 in the past year.”
Seriously, in this day and age are we unable to detect and prevent this?
Paywalled
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/zelensky-accuses-west-of-cowardice-20220328-p5a8gd
Why wouldn’t Nick Xenophon run under the SA Best banner?
BK
Love the five minutes to midnight election clock on the wall!
Cronus says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:37 pm
nath
We had always lived in old Queenslanders, we love their charm, but after moving into an open-plan modern build in semi-rural Brisbane we’ll never go back.
_____________
That’s understandable. They need to be renovated and reconfigured for modern life. Homes from that period have incredible potential. There are some streets of Melbourne just full of Californian Bungalows. Very picturesque.
Just get any non crazy staffer to run in Berowra. Tell them to just be quiet for 6 weeks. Can’t be that hard surely.
Thank you, poroti, for that video of Spike in Woy Woy. It actually looks to me like nothing much has changed! Especially the weather. Except that we now have a ‘Spike Milligan Bridge’, which is a bridge beside a bridge that’s already there and still being used. Quite appropriate really for a Spike Milligan bridge. 😀
Nothing will ever beat the suburb of Floreat in Perth and it’s wide variety of spectacular Art Deco homes.
I lived in Bradfield and Berowra as a child/teenager and Berowra is way more diverse than the 2PP suggests.
Disappointing.
Cheers SA-ers! Long posts are good, it’s something to read on a lazy afternoon off work. 🙂
I’d forgotten about Patrick – it’ll be a shame to see him go.
A senate contest involving Rex Patrick (ind ex-CA), Stirling Griff (CA) and Xenophon (uhhh… ind ex-CA/SAB/etc?) would be a mess, and without GVTs they’ll just spoil each other’s chances. (Is Griff running again?)
If no X or similar wins a seat, that 59-41 lead to Labor makes SA another state where the combined left can get four seats. The state election had a pile of conservatives who didn’t want to vote Liberal, which makes it very hard for the Libs to get three seats there (they’ll vote for various flavours of X, FF, ON etc, then exhaust).
This is good news I just received from The Smart Energy Council:
The recent changes to ARENA’s mandate to include funding for fossil fuel and carbon capture projects has been found to be illegal and rejected by the Australian Senate.
This is a tremendous win for renewable energy projects, and for the future of the industry.
Anyways – Tim Gartrell will be hailed as a strategic genius if Albo wins with zero target.
How that goes as a governing mandate would be another story?
It might be Biden 2.0 – we ran on zero target but we are going to run to the left on policy.
C@tmomma says Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:16 pm
In a choice between the two, I would take Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. She’s far too conservative for my taste, but she didn’t appear to be a reactionary.
As an aside, CFW first stood for preselection at the 1994 Warringah by-election, where she was defeated by Tony Abbott. I wonder how different our history would be if she had won
Waiting for ScoMo’s Captains Picks..
Nominations have closed for two Labor Senate vacancies and two lower house seats – and the national executive has filled them without a ballot as there was only one nominee for each slot.
Former public servant Jana Stewart will replace Kimberley Kitching in the Senate while unionist Linda White will replace Kim Carr.
In the lower house:
Andrew Charlton will contest the seat of Parramatta – despite concerns that candidates from diverse backgrounds were overlooked
Cassandra Fernando, a Shop Distributive and Allied Employees organiser, will contest Holt, vacated by retiring MP Anthony Byrne
Best Labor vote in Berowra was in 2007 when Labor got 42% two Party preferred.
nath,
The Qlder houses are built higher because even the houses in Brisbane don’t want to touch the ground there.
Elliot must prefer being a ‘railroad baron’ to taking his chances in Parramatta.
ltep says Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:44 pm
And delete their social media history.
Socrates:
Tomahawks are squarely MTCR Category I systems, and as such the USA would not agree to export them.
Boerwar
In fact, I have pictures of a Danish officer and myself sitting only 700m in front of a 177 Israeli mobile artillery battery as it fired over us at Hezbollah positions. Apparently our presence had no deterrent effect on them on this occasion at least. The concussion had a permanent effects on us. On other occasions when we were sleeping in observation posts the concussion would knock us out of bed as well as knocking clocks & pictures off walls and even knocking over cabinets.
In addition to what you were saying, perhaps the Hezbollah were most successful (IMHO) in their use of mobile phones to trigger the IED’s. In any event, having three methods to use depending on their target certainly kept the Israelis and SLA on their toes.
Tactics evolve very quickly in war zones and it seems as though the Ukrainians are adept at adaptation.
Evan says Monday, March 28, 2022 at 5:50 pm
I would have said the chances of Labor winning in Nedlands or South Perth were virtually zero, but look what can happen.
I had a copy of the original Fresh Prince and Jazzy Jeff’s “Girls Ain’t Nothing But Trouble” single that came out on Word-Up Records in 1986. This was substantially “reworked” when they signed to a major label.
DJ Jazzy Jeff and The Fresh Prince – Girls Ain’t Nothing But Trouble (Def Mix) (1986)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEkC6EEGOXY
bc @ #1618 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 5:49 pm
Not that much I think. Both staunch Catholics. Both hard chargers for the cause.
How will the Shorts react to Jana Stewarts victory …?
Girls are good trouble, bakunin. )
Following the heavy rain over the past 24hr we’ve just had a local property dam finally burst. We knew it was due any time but it’s sad to see a year’s worth of water for this cattle property disappear so quickly. No doubt it will cost many thousands to repair and another year to fill.
bakunin,
You never figured out who Itza’s OH was, did you? Does the word, Fairlight synthesiser mean anything to you? 🙂
Will anyone from the alp be humming ACCA Dacca before Frydenberg gets up to speak?
That’s actually a wise move from Labor.
Yes and to the HC on Thursday Rex?
Special leave is a rarity – but should it be granted what then ? Presumably there will need to be a deal with the former leader to allow a Victorian slate of candidates to go forward into the election?
“Sidelined veteran Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells has tearfully told Parliament she has been the victim of factional warfare, likening her own political stress to that of the late Kimberley Kitching and saying “mean girls” were not just confined to the Labor Party.”
Imagine that!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sidelined-liberal-senator-accuses-party-of-its-own-mean-girls-culture-20220328-p5a8nc.html
Alpha Zero @ #1339 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 5:56 pm
I’m listening to the Powerage album right now. 😆
I think ‘I’m A Loser’ is more appropriate 😐
https://youtu.be/f70Z3cvrQd0
Littlefinger might end up way up on the backbench watching Albo assume the PM’s HoR chair.
Heard an advertisement on commercial radio from the government today spruiking their credentials for infrastructure, keeping the debt down, and low taxes. An ad that obviously could be adapted to each electorate/state etc in this case – Tasmania investment in the ‘midland highway’
This was an advertisement on behalf of the ‘government’ therefore paid by the government.
In reality it was a re-election ad for the Coalition paid for you by you and I.
Make me fn mad.
Cronus:
As frequently noted in the aftermath of MH370: it’s a big ocean out there.
“You never figured out who Itza’s OH was, did you? Does the word, Fairlight synthesiser mean anything to you? ”
NO FUCKING WAY?!
Dandy Murray @ #1641 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 6:05 pm
Way. 🙂
https://globalfishingwatch.org/
This is an effort to monitor ocean fishing vessels. Perhaps they have ideas suitable for other domains.
AZ at 5.56pm
“Will anyone from the alp be humming ACCA Dacca before Frydenberg gets up to speak?”
I guess you mean ‘Back in Black’.
Another valid option would be ‘Thunderstruck’: a schoolteacher once told me kids wandered around the playground singing ‘Na-na-na nah na-na-na-na, chunda!’
Also, can you smuggle stereo speakers into the House? Drown the bastard out!
“Will anyone from the alp be humming ACCA Dacca before Frydenberg gets up to speak?”
Some my have a particular coffee mug in front of them for the event?? 🙂
Morrison the scammer…
Wow! Putin has dispatched Chechen Mercenaries to Belarus to shoot and kill any Russian soldiers that are trying to retreat and flee from the war in Ukraine!
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 6:01 pm
Littlefinger might end up way up on the backbench watching Albo assume the PM’s HoR chair.
_______________________________________________________
Perhaps ? Maybe GG – Hurley’s term is up 1 July 2024.
It would be a nice symbolism – just like his dear old mother in law and both Hawke and Menzies pensioned off rivals to yarralumla.
Littlefinger could also say to himself he is the actual head of state, maybe muse about using the reserve powers if required? Could also have long and searching talks with Beazley about what might have been for both of them?
In a choice between the two, I would take Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. She’s far too conservative for my taste, but she didn’t appear to be a reactionary.
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+1