Polls: Newspoll breakdowns, seat polls and trust in government

Newspoll finds South Australia joining Western Australia as the state where the Coalition stands to be hardest hit, corroborated to some extent by a variable batch of seat polls.

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which most notably provide state-level federal voting intention results from three months’ combined polling with credible sample sizes. These find Labor with a lead of 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last quarter of 2021, a swing of around 6%); 58-42 in Victoria (out from 56-44, a swing of around 3%), 53-47 in Western Australia (in from 55-45, a swing of around 8.5%) and 59-41 in South Australia (out from 55-45, a swing of around 8%), but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).

There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now leads 60-40 among the 35-49s, out from 54-46; is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42. Conversely, the Coalition’s deficit among the 18-34s narrows from 69-31 to 66-34. Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.

Also out yesterday from the News Corp tabloids were nine federal seat polls from KJC Research, who are something of a mystery outfit except to the extent that they achieved a broadly correct result in a seat poll before the 2020 election in Queensland. The polls were conducted last Thursday and Saturday from samples of 800 apiece – the reporting doesn’t specify, but this could only have been accomplished affordably by means of automated phone polling. A paywalled display of the full results is available here.

The results were a fair bit better overall for the Coalition than the general tenor of polling nationally, with an average swing to Labor of around 2% by my reckoning. By my calculation, the results suggest Labor will gain Reid in New South Wales by 54-46 (a swing of 7%), Swan in Western Australia by 57-43 (a 10% swing) and Boothby in South Australia by 55-45 (a 6% swing), and retain Dunkley in Victoria by 60-40 (a 7% swing) and Gilmore in New South Wales by 53-47 (a 0.5% swing). Conversely, the poll suggests the Liberals will retain Bass in Tasmania by 54-46 (a Liberal swing of 3.5%), the Liberal National Party in Queensland will retain Flynn by 61-39 (a swing of 2.5%) and Longman by 56-44 (a swing of 3%), and – reportedly contrary to both parties’ expectations – the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%).

Presumably we’ll be hearing quite a bit from KJC Research over the coming months, because it has also conducted a poll of Wentworth for the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation’s Wentworth Project. As reported in The Conversation – which does make clear that this is an automated phone poll, conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1036 – the poll suggests Liberal member Dave Sharma is under serious pressure from independent candidate Allegra Spender, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 51-49 on two-candidate preferred. The primary votes are 42% for Sharma and 27% for Spender, with Labor on 14%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats and United Australia Party on 3% apiece.

Also out this week were Roy Morgan results on trust in government, which finds the political right dominating a list of the least trusted Australian political figures (Clive Palmer, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson making up the top five) and Gladys Berejiklian the only conservative with a net positive rating, where she stands alongside Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt. A spike in support for the proposition that the government is doing a good job through 2020 and early 2021 continues to evaporate, although it’s not quite back to the levels it was at pre-pandemic. This is based on an SMS survey conducted nearly a month ago from a sample of 1409.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,803 thoughts on “Polls: Newspoll breakdowns, seat polls and trust in government”

  1. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, March 28, 2022 at 3:11 pm

    If Rock doesn’t press charges, you know it’s staged.
    _______
    Smith then sat down and cursed at Chris Roch very loudly. Not staged.

  4. Rock had his chin out ready for the ‘slap’.

    He was in position to move back, and to the right.

    He body doesn’t tense up, which suggests this movement may have been rehearsed.

  5. On the subject of NCOs, can someone explain what they are and what is their importance in a war? USA and Australian NCOs are compared favourably against Russian NCOs and I am wondering what the differences are.

  8. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, March 28, 2022 at 3:21 pm

    Rock had his chin out ready for the ‘slap’.

    He was in position to move back, and to the right.
    ________________
    Rock did reel back and to the right indicating an assault from the front. So we can rule out a second puncher at least.

  9. So It’s Monday in Canberra,normally would the Libs be having their prayer meeting and sermon on the mount from SfM enjoining the party to remain strong, go forth and spread the message of spending to win?
    No shock surprise calls for a spill?
    Pity,I kind of liked the idea of potato head being peeled and sliced.

  11. On further investigation, I’ve come to the conclusion THERE’S A SECOND PARTY to this incident.

    It clearly looks like a staged series of actions and movements by both Smith and Chris Rock.

    I’m suggesting the second party, who was present in the crowd, trained this performance.

    I’m suggesting the second actor was none other than….

  14. Someone needs a quiet word with Helen Polley, herself a testament to the abject mediocrity of contemporary Australian politics.

  19. Sidelined veteran Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells has tearfully told Parliament she has been the victim of factional warfare, likening her own political stress to that of the late Kimberley Kitching and saying “mean girls” were not just confined to the Labor Party.

    Senator Fierravanti-Wells, a NSW conservative who has been placed in an unwinnable position on the party’s Senate ticket, said during a condolence motion in the upper house that she had “no doubts” the pressure Senator Kitching was under as she fought for her career had contributed to her sudden death this month.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sidelined-liberal-senator-accuses-party-of-its-own-mean-girls-culture-20220328-p5a8nc.html

  20. It’s amazing how as soon as people lose preselection and have to get a proper job, they suddenly discover everyone around them is a bully and plays faction politics which of course they do not do.

    Politicians who aren’t making lives at stake decisions like Premiers or (theoretically) the PM I don’t really accept are under more pressure or stress than a lot of working people out in the real world, they just have a massive entitlement complex to the job. And it’s worse with major party Senators who largely don’t even need to do electorate work and certainly don’t need to compete to win a seat and just rely on internal party politics for their jobs (major party lower house MPs in super safe seats are a close 2nd in the entitlement stakes but at least redrawing of boundaries can keep them on their toes!)

  21. With viewers of the Academy Awards ceremony dropping off dramatically, I guess something pronounced was needed. I still think, though, it wasn’t staged, as Smith later apologised, not to Rock, but to the Academy, and the audience. And as nath pointed out, Smith let the language fly either before or after the incident.
    It can be said that with some certainty that most will know who
    won the best actor award, and the name of the film he acted in.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/oscars-2021-academy-award-ratings-plummet-to-all-time-low-.html

  24. Late Riser says:
    Monday, March 28, 2022 at 3:54 pm

    Asking for someone (me) who lives in Brisbane. What’s in Wagga Wagga?
    ___________
    World class shooting complex?

  25. The punch looked pretty lame to me, I think they’d have made a better job of it if it was a “work” (to use pro wrestling terminology). Also there’s nothing in it for Will Smith to do a “work” like that.

    Can’t imagine Chris Rock pressing charges regardless. He’ll just benefit from the publicity and the ability to make jokes about it for the next decade.

    Reckon Will just decided in a snap moment that the marital brownie points of sticking up for his wife like that was worth whatever flap he – Oscar winner and super rich movie star Will Smith – would have to weather for trying to deck Chris Rock.

  26. Voice Endeavour says:
    Monday, March 28, 2022 at 3:00 pm

    The senate becomes simple. 3 parties exist – Labor, coalition, greens. Any 2 parties can pass legislation, no 1 party can pass legislation alone.

    That is to say, the Green hope is that by acting together the LRP and the Greens will be able to defeat any Labor legislation. They will be looking for opportunities to collaborate. Any pretext will do. Any excuse will suffice. The Senate is a reactionary citadel. The election of a Labor government will almost certainly give rise soon enough to triggers for a DD. Gough had to invoke a DD to overcome the Senate. Albo may need to do the same.

    We will see. With luck, the Greens will fail to elect any Senators this time and their part-quotas will be assigned to the election of Labor Senators. This would bring a smile to the eyes.

    We know that Labor’s enemies will refuse to accept the legitimacy of any Labor Government. They will set out to destroy one should it be elected. This will not change.

  27. Arky says:
    Monday, March 28, 2022 at 3:56 pm

    Reckon Will just decided in a snap moment that the marital brownie points of sticking up for his wife
    ____________
    Well they have admitted to being in an open relationship. He should be used to guys taking shots at his wife.

  28. Grime

    The parties have their party meeting on Tuesday mornings.

    Including the Liberal Party room.

    Still time for a motion to ‘temporarily suspend party rules regarding leadership spills, due to the appalling behaviour of the worst PM in living memory’.

  29. @Andrew

    We’ll see for SA. I think it’s unlikely that if xenophon gets a seat in SA, it’s at the expense of the Greens.

    I’m one of those predicting a ‘tightening’ when the election campaign heats up, noting Labor don’t win 55/45 landslides, but lets take PB numbers as fact for now with no adjustments.

    Applying PB primary vote swings from SA house to the 2019 SA senate results (not perfect, but it’ll do) we get Labor on 2.66 quota, libs on 2.07 and greens on 0.9.

    If those first preferences were to occur, the Greens are taking the 5th seat, the libs are out at 2 and it’s over to Labor vs some ‘other’ for the 6th with ‘others’ as a blob holding 1.36 quota, but obviously that won’t all concentrate in 1 candidate. For the greens to fail, they would have to fall behind labor and some third party candidate. Labor is 0.24 quota behind the greens, hard to catch up.

    But lets imagine a situation where others coalesces around nick xenophon. Lets imagine Nick gets 0.5 first preference quota from others, and takes 0.5 first preference quota from the three major parties, (taking the same percentage of each parties voters, 8.86%).

    In this example, Labor drop down to 2.43 quota, liberals to 1.89, greens to 0.82 and nick on 1 with others on 0.85 quota. So we elect 4 straight off the bat, and then its down to libs on 0.89, greens on 0.82 and labor on 0.43, with two left to elect. There’s 0.86 there for others, which I think means no hope for others. SA always has some ‘family first’ style people that will see the libs reach a 2nd. That then means labor needs 76% of the others vote to flow to them over the greens, which is unlikely.

    In order for Xenophon to cost the greens a seat, there needs to also be some polling error, OR xenophon needs to be a lot more persuasive to green voters than to labor voters. Considering nick’s policies are much more aligned with labor’s, that seems pretty unlikely.

  30. “Maybe, just maybe, Biden’s advisers are using his history of off the cuff gaffes to their advantage.”

    @Simon Katich – absolutely. He’s got great plausible deniability for stuff he says right out in public, even though this is clearly not a malaprop or a missed word or some other slip, it’s something he intended to say, but they can just brush it off as him having misspoke.

  32. Andrew-Earlwood

    Agreed in principle. We need an immediate overhaul of our current defence strategy to represent the current situation showing a enemy superpower on our doorstep and tanks, unreliable helicopters, a handful of infantry battalions and ships-in-waiting won’t cut it. A entire continental missile strategy is required and dare I say it, consideration of additional allied forces. If China is allowed to settle in the Solomons or PNG then any strategy is essentially a moot point as China will already have achieved its aims for a pittance of denial of movement for a pittance.

  33. sprocket_ @ #1528 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 3:59 pm

    Grime

    The parties have their party meeting on Tuesday mornings.

    Including the Liberal Party room.

    Still time for a motion to ‘temporarily suspend party rules regarding leadership spills, due to the appalling behaviour of the worst PM in living memory’.

    cheers sprocket…I would dearly love to be a fly on the wall for that meeting 😉

  36. nath @ #1526 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 3:58 pm

    Arky says:
    Monday, March 28, 2022 at 3:56 pm

    Reckon Will just decided in a snap moment that the marital brownie points of sticking up for his wife
    ____________
    Well they have admitted to being in an open relationship. He should be used to guys taking shots at his wife.

    Speaking of sexist pigs.

  37. I keep seeing ‘punch’ . Sure looks like ‘slap’

    Yep. A slap. Just a couple of guys saying ‘look at me!’ when everyone really just want to look at Zendaya, or Venus Williams, or……

  38. Wheres the condemnation from Nicole Flint, against Morrison and his cronies

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sidelined-liberal-senator-accuses-party-of-its-own-mean-girls-culture-20220328-p5a8nc.html

    Sidelined veteran Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells has tearfully told Parliament she has been the victim of factional warfare, likening her own political stress to that of the late Kimberley Kitching and saying “mean girls” were not just confined to the Labor Party.

  39. Voice Endeavour:

    It’s not completely impossible for Labor to win a 3rd in SA or NSW. But it’s pretty unlikely, and won’t actually change the electoral calculus in any meaningful way.

    Any realistic scenario in which labor win the third in NSW or SA, they’ve already won the third in vic and wa and a second in qld. At which point they have 11+16 =27. At that point, they cease needing to rely on lambie and ON and can pass things just with the 12-13 greens. The senate becomes simple. 3 parties exist – Labor, coalition, greens. Any 2 parties can pass legislation, no 1 party can pass legislation alone. ON, Lambie, xenophon, ACT inde may have seats, but their vote won’t matter.

    It’s probably better to look at the combined left, rather than Labor by itself while assuming the Greens get one everywhere. Labor may well win a third seat in NSW and WA, but if it comes off the Greens instead of the Libs, it doesn’t change the balance.

    The 2019 result in the states (not territories) was 18 right, 17 left, 1 Lambie (I’m leaving her in the grey “other” pile). If the left want a majority in the 2022-25 term, they need 22/40, so two better-than-even splits somewhere – that means a statewide 2pp of 57%, or 66.6% in the ACT. Currently Labor are only there in Vic and SA; Xenophon will get in the way in SA, so only Vic is likely to go 3 ALP – 2 Lib – 1 Grn.

    In Tassie, who knows (only Morgan polls there regularly, with laughably small sample sizes), but considering what a shambles the state branch of Labor is at the moment, I doubt it. The second left seat in the ACT gets talked about every election – it’d be nice, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

    If the left only get an extra seat in Vic (and SA goes 2-2-1-1), that’s still a decent result: Labor and Greens get exactly half the seats, with a choice of Lambie or Xenophon for the extra vote needed.

  41. Will the media carry on about the Mean Girls in the liberal party and calling Morrison to hold inquiry for the next fortnight

  42. Eh, how much force are you expecting China to assemble at the Solomon islands (and/or PNG?).

    Remember, as Russia/Ukraine just demonstrated you can’t do ‘surprise’ invasions even leaving aside the amphibious element.

  44. Will liberals rush to media mates to tell what it was like to be on the wrong side with Senator CFW?
    Not a place I would have wished to be
    Another who lived by the sword and chooses to whinge when cut down

  46. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, March 28, 2022 at 4:16 pm

    Nah. Smallus dickus territory.
    __________
    Maybe. I didn’t write it, but the beat is epic and like all good gangsta rap is funny.

  48. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, March 28, 2022 at 4:16 pm

    Nah. Smallus dickus territory.
    _________
    Also, isn’t being a bit of a sexist pig to make fun of under endowed males? Have some sympathy for BW.

  49. nath @ #1546 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 4:23 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, March 28, 2022 at 4:16 pm

    Nah. Smallus dickus territory.
    _________
    Also, isn’t being a bit of a sexist pig to make fun of under endowed males? Have some sympathy for BW.

    I was only guessing but you seem to know. 😉

    I was just going on, if you have to advertise you ain’t got nothing great to sell.

  50. There will not be a budget bounce , the media will be in hysteria if the polls refuse to move from where they are at present

    Labor 54/55- Lib/nats 46/45

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