The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which most notably provide state-level federal voting intention results from three months’ combined polling with credible sample sizes. These find Labor with a lead of 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last quarter of 2021, a swing of around 6%); 58-42 in Victoria (out from 56-44, a swing of around 3%), 53-47 in Western Australia (in from 55-45, a swing of around 8.5%) and 59-41 in South Australia (out from 55-45, a swing of around 8%), but with the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 4.5%).
There are also some interesting movements from last quarter to this by age and income. Labor now leads 60-40 among the 35-49s, out from 54-46; is at 50-50 among the 50-64s, after trailing 53-47 last time; and has narrowed the gap among the 65-plus cohort from 60-40 to 58-42. Conversely, the Coalition’s deficit among the 18-34s narrows from 69-31 to 66-34. Labor also now leads among all four income cohorts, including a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 and above, after trailing 53-47 last time. The poll records no gender gap on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead among men widening from 52-48 to 55-45 among men and 54-46 to 55-45 among women.
Also out yesterday from the News Corp tabloids were nine federal seat polls from KJC Research, who are something of a mystery outfit except to the extent that they achieved a broadly correct result in a seat poll before the 2020 election in Queensland. The polls were conducted last Thursday and Saturday from samples of 800 apiece – the reporting doesn’t specify, but this could only have been accomplished affordably by means of automated phone polling. A paywalled display of the full results is available here.
The results were a fair bit better overall for the Coalition than the general tenor of polling nationally, with an average swing to Labor of around 2% by my reckoning. By my calculation, the results suggest Labor will gain Reid in New South Wales by 54-46 (a swing of 7%), Swan in Western Australia by 57-43 (a 10% swing) and Boothby in South Australia by 55-45 (a 6% swing), and retain Dunkley in Victoria by 60-40 (a 7% swing) and Gilmore in New South Wales by 53-47 (a 0.5% swing). Conversely, the poll suggests the Liberals will retain Bass in Tasmania by 54-46 (a Liberal swing of 3.5%), the Liberal National Party in Queensland will retain Flynn by 61-39 (a swing of 2.5%) and Longman by 56-44 (a swing of 3%), and – reportedly contrary to both parties’ expectations – the Liberals will retain Chisholm in Victoria by 55-45 (a swing of 4.5%).
Presumably we’ll be hearing quite a bit from KJC Research over the coming months, because it has also conducted a poll of Wentworth for the University of Canberra’s Centre for Change Governance and The Conversation’s Wentworth Project. As reported in The Conversation – which does make clear that this is an automated phone poll, conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1036 – the poll suggests Liberal member Dave Sharma is under serious pressure from independent candidate Allegra Spender, holding a statistically insignificant lead of 51-49 on two-candidate preferred. The primary votes are 42% for Sharma and 27% for Spender, with Labor on 14%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats and United Australia Party on 3% apiece.
Also out this week were Roy Morgan results on trust in government, which finds the political right dominating a list of the least trusted Australian political figures (Clive Palmer, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson making up the top five) and Gladys Berejiklian the only conservative with a net positive rating, where she stands alongside Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, Tanya Plibersek, Mark McGowan, Jacqui Lambie and Adam Bandt. A spike in support for the proposition that the government is doing a good job through 2020 and early 2021 continues to evaporate, although it’s not quite back to the levels it was at pre-pandemic. This is based on an SMS survey conducted nearly a month ago from a sample of 1409.
@Dog’s – absolutely but it’s not a surprise things not impacting their lives would move the needle less than stuff that might/will.
‘Cronus says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 1:30 pm
Socrates
Although it seems overly simplified, I’m a big fan of a nation of Australia’s size purchasing off-the-shelf proven equipment from immediate allies (mostly USA). Firstly, it makes interoperability so much easier, second it already is in production and presumably proven. Perhaps we might even build some items here. We aren’t large enough IMHO to support niche purchases. This would make procurement much simpler, cheaper and effective though would no doubt rile the broader defence establishment.’
——————————————————-
+1
‘Socrates says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 12:50 pm
…
Hence while I accept Australian defence spending must increase, I make no apology for wanting it scrutinised more.
…’
———————
+1
”
PageBoisays:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 11:35 am
@Cronus
some economists (Drs Stephen Hail and Bill Mitchell here in Aus for example) would argue that there is NO need to balance budgets across any sort of cycle. That sort of thinking was relevant when we were on the gold standard, or had an interest rate peg with the US, but it isn’t true now. Despite the fig-leaf of RBA independence, the fact is that as we are a sovereign fiat currency issuing government, the feds only real limit on its spending is the available real resources available for sale in $AUD, and this includes all idle labour. There is no need to issue bonds to ‘finance’ federal deficit spending, the RBA could (and should in my view) fund treasury directly. Taxes likewise do not actually fund anything, but they ARE important as they are what gives the currency its value (ie pay taxes in $AUD or go to jail), and they also deprive the private sector of resources to allow the government to spend without causing inflation. Taxes are also an important lever to encourage or discourage behaviour (eg smoking, tax subsidies for EVs)……………
”
Agreed
But They all amount to nothing in medium to long term if Climate Change issues are not mitigated (IMO, we are past inflection point of Climate Change and unless the big 4 do something substantial in their backyards, we are on a path to reach 3°C temperature difference by end of the century.)
Jim Chalmers fact checked by the ABC on claimed that 2/3 of the Government debt from borrowings occurred before Covid hit…verdict CORRECT!
https://twitter.com/marxdeane/status/1508256780195069956?s=20&t=jxC19CNN0X3f-oM3QTXiAQ
Defence spending ? There should be a Bigly Royal Commission into defense acquisitions over the past 10-20-30 years (at least) .Every little lobbyist,think tank member , pollie involved and pollies with defense related sinecures should be ‘fine tooth combed’ .
I wonder how many $100 billion has basically been pissed up against the wall over the years ?
All I wanna know is was the Will Smith/Chris Rock thing staged …?
”
Steve777says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 11:46 am
Well at least Biden didn’t threaten to shirtfront Putin…
”
IMO, Morrison should send Abbott to shirtfront Putin and wage ‘diplomatic war’ like never before like we are currently doing against China. 🙂
Ven
Best place for him. Hopefully he wont come back.
What a joke.
Either way.
Dog’s Brunch at 1.49pm
Let’s hold our breath waiting for the lamestream media headlines: ‘Coalition Pre-Covid Debt Bomb’
Actually, I’m a little impressed with myself there…
Definitely wasn’t staged. Either Will Smith can’t punch or Chris Rock can take a hit well.
So where is all the talk of debt and deficit disaster nowadays? Crickets from the MSM. If it was Labor theyed be crucified.
Poroti
“There should be a Bigly Royal Commission into defense acquisitions over the past 10-20-30 years (at least)”
I am available. Probably see me out.
I expect there will be a bounce for the coalition after the budget (not that I believe it is deserved); the question is will it be enough?
@Scout – no, it won’t.
I expect any bounce will be relatively mild and short-lived. Nothing fundamentally changes, there’s no narrative shake-up.
Steve Davis
“ So where is all the talk of debt and deficit disaster nowadays? Crickets from the MSM. If it was Labor theyed be crucified.”
Apparently debt was only an issue for the Murdochracy until it reached half a trillion at which point it disappeared because it became too hard to say. Who knew debt was so easily dispensed with. I’ll have a quadrillion thanks!
Something is about to give. High daily covid cases – going up. Schools, police, hospitals, goods distribution struggling to deal with staffing shortages due to isolation. Morrison making noises but doing nothing.
The tango between the politics, the health advice and public opinion is going to get complicated.
Liberal Senator Fiervernti Wells stated in her Kitching condolence statement that factional wars and “mean girls”are not only present in the Labor party but also are present in the Liberal party,that she had personally experienced in the Liberal party, and that Kitchings death should not be used for party political benefit but to improve the behaviour of all political parties.
nath @ #1462 Monday, March 28th, 2022 – 1:43 pm
I am going for partly staged and completely pathetic. Maybe Smith made more contact than Rock was expecting.
“ Socrates
Although it seems overly simplified, I’m a big fan of a nation of Australia’s size purchasing off-the-shelf proven equipment from immediate allies (mostly USA). Firstly, it makes interoperability so much easier, second it already is in production and presumably proven. Perhaps we might even build some items here. We aren’t large enough IMHO to support niche purchases. This would make procurement much simpler, cheaper and effective though would no doubt rile the broader defence establishment.”
_________
Given developments in the Solomon Islands, I believe the whole “off the shelf” vs “home produced” argument for defence procurement is somewhat moot. In my view we need a fully operational “Anti Access/Area Denial” (A2/Ad) system in place by mid 2025. In order to do so we need to think about how we go about using existing platforms in combination with the necessary additional kit we need to acquire over the 36 months.
Longer term plans for subs, future frigates and the like can work themselves out over time but at tye present time, those big ticket items are only relevant for the era after 2035: many strategists now believe that it THIS decade – not next, let alone the 2040s – that we are most vulnerable.
I posted a very long contribution – linking to an even longer You Tube video on this thread, late Saturday afternoon. I commend that to you, but in quick summary I think the most important things Australia needs to do over the next three years (for that period 2025 – 2035) are as follows:
1. Develop the A2/AD doctrine and place it at the heart of our Strategic Defence Posture. Most of the necessary elements are already in place (i.e JORN over the horizon radar, shared access to American polar orbit surveillance satellites, the unfolding of modern manned reconnaissance planes and acquisition of unmanned platforms, F35s, F18Fs, F18G Growlers, AWDs with strike length VLS, Collins class subs with a capability for horizontal launch medium and long range missiles) but there are gaps in capability to make all these elements work. therefore we need to but the following assets ‘off the shelf’ ASAP:
2. Our own sovereign equatorial orbit surveillance satellite network (probably a minimum of two satellites costing approximately $800 a pop);
3. At least 200 tomahawk missiles. Our AWDs need to be going into dry dock one at a time NOW so that they can all take up to 24 of these each by mid 2025. Further, each of the Collins need to be worked on as part of each boats 7 year scheduled overhaul NOW – even before the 2026 and onwards life extension and upgrade work is due to begin – to accept Tomahawks (so that at least 2, hopefully 3 Collins can stow tomahawks by 2025).
4. Medium range cruise missiles. We have 200 LRASM missile on order for use with our Superhornets. They haven’t arrived yet. At the moment the LRASM have not been accepted on surface ships or into submarines. It has a throw weight – 500kg – which is twice as much as the JSM missile with we have jointly developed with the Norwegians. There is debater as to which one should choose. In my view we need to choose both. The LRASM is for many targets that our assets may actually want to hit, extremely excessive. The smaller JSM is more than adequate for most targets. However there are some targets for which only 500kg of high explosives will be sufficient (ie. capital ships, like aircraft carriers). Plus the JSM is the only cruise missile that can be carried stealth-fully by the F35 operating in ‘stealth mode’. Plus, the JSM can be quad packed into a single Mk41 VLS tube. So, IMO we should acquire another 200 LRASMs to be put onto our AWDs to supplement the longer range Tomahawks (and ultimately into submarines once a canister variant is manufactured), plus 500 JSM missiles to be used on our F35 fleet (noting that the LRASM can be fitted under the wings on the external hard points of the F35), our ANZAC frigates (either replacing the harpoons they currently carry, or 8 of them being placed in two out of eight VL tubes) and even placed onto our Arafura Offshore Patrol Vessels (the JSM is so light that they could be placed in lieu of the main gun in their own launch canister systems), which could operate in conjunction with a frigate or AWD and thereby massively enhance the area patrolled for Area Denial (AD) operations.
5. Land based missile systems like Patriot or Typhoon (which can launch ground based variants of the AMRAAM 120 and also strike missiles like the Tomahawk – so a semi trailer stationed on Magnetic Island could take out the ChiComm fleet in Honiara Harbour if necessary).
shellbell at 2:13 pm
You’re on the list. You’d need to ‘cancel all appointments’ as such an RC should see you full time through to your dotage………and beyond.
malcolm,
Connie makes a good point.
Saw the clip and it looks staged because Will Smith wouldn’t do that if it wasn’t because that would be career ending.
Clearly the Coalition, rightly or wrongly (tba), believe the KK story is a vote winner for them. I can only assume polling is telling them this though it seems unlikely. Today’s national rag has 3-4 KK stories despite the Coalition’s biggest ever cash splash in history. How is that even possible? On the other hand, their internal polling could be telling them these are desperate times so grasp any straw.
I think the general view is that budget bounces are quite rare. The Liberals do claim they got one in 2019 though.
If anything will buy a bounce you’d hope the purported goodies mentioned for Budget 2022 would do it.
It does show what contempt the Liberals hold the public in though.
Cronus
“I’m a big fan of a nation of Australia’s size purchasing off-the-shelf proven equipment from immediate allies (mostly USA). ”
+1/2 for me too…
…unless it is something we can make here and need to maintain here. That was the original reason for the national shipbuilding program – not creating jobs.
Where the item is a large mass produced thing that can be bought more cheaply elsewhere (e.g. tanks, jet fighters) then sure, buy from USA or UK or similar (Korea and Japan should be considered IMO).
But there are defence items we make efficiently here. The more we do, the more expertise here builds up and the items get both cheaper and better. The main cost overruns here have been caused by inconsistent work flow and defence bureaucracy changing the specifications. The solution is not so much to change where we purchase, as who does the purchasing.
Nor is USA the cheapest or most reliable supplier for everything. Their ships and subs are typically 50% dearer than European ones, including UK or French. Nor are their products always working. Remember the Manoora and Kanimbla purchases from USA?
https://www.anao.gov.au/sites/default/files/anao_report_2000-2001_08.pdf
Likewise the Seasprite helicopter purchase from USA by the RAN in the 2000s were one of Howard’s great failures.
https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/super-seasprite
I think the point is that there is no one-size-fits-all policy that guarantees defence buys are not a waste of billions. Sometimes we should buy elsewhere, sometimes we should build here. The technology is complex and it is easy for a bent minister/bent official to sign us up to a dud. We need an inquiry into and overhaul of the Defence department. This is nothing against all the sailors and soldiers in the ADF.
Recent history suggests that the most important budget is the one before the election year and not the one closet to the election and this government has passed the point of being able to spend itself out of trouble and now needs the opposition to stuff it or a black swan event to save it.
ItzaDreamsays:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 12:35 pm
Labor on telecommunications:
Last week the Morrison government announced a $750m plan to upgrade the fixed wireless component of the NBN to 5G, and bring on around 120,000 homes in the satellite footprint.
Labor has announced it will keep the plans in place if elected, but will go further. The party’s NBN policy for the election would be a $3.2bn of investment in the NBN, including:
Adding another 1.5m homes stuck on fibre-to-the-node to full fibre on top of the government’s existing upgrade plans.
_______________________
It’s my first election in a country seat.
Will be interesting to see if the people I’ve talked to who complain on the one hand about being ‘forgotten’ by the city politicians but on the other hand say ‘never ALP’ will vote for their interest ‘now’ as opposed to a long ago ancestor that set the ‘never’ in place.
This is a policy that will make a fundamental difference to people’s lives. Especially children who grow up in rural areas. This policy is a significant infrastructure project for the bush. Will they take this on board and change the habit of a lifetime?
I’ll be doing my utmost in the towns in my electorate to help promote this promise and all the benefits it will bring.
And my answer to anyone on costing will be the absolute waste that has been accrued by the current government will be greatly reduced which will then enable real, tangible things to be built that benefits families and communities. For example not wasting money on designing commuter car parks that get canned.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, March 28, 2022 at 2:29 pm
…
2. Our own sovereign equatorial orbit surveillance satellite network (probably a minimum of two satellites costing approximately $800 a pop);
….’
———————————–
At that price I would buy at least ten of them.
Thanks for the post. Most interesting. One of the more interesting bits of analysis that will duly arise from Putin’s War will be studies having to do with the adequacy of missile inventories, accompanied, doubtless by a much stronger focus on supply chains and/or manufacturing the replacement of spent missiles.
Crikey has an article that points out that the LNP leadership is toxic. This sentence is from the article:
The Coalition finds itself in an absolutely woeful position with its top personalities: Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, and Defence Minister/potential next Liberal leader Peter Dutton are all voter turn-offs.
Who knew?
Did you know Taylormade?
The Coalition always have an economic plan. I still dont know what the fuck it is after a decade.
GA
Theyre Taylormades heroes that your talking about.
Labor are hardly chock full of leadership talent.
I’m leaning towards it being staged, because surely Chris Rock would have reacted in a defensive manner …?
Rex
Yep and no security came out to make sure they were separated.
@Rex – no way it was staged – Rock reacted like a normal person would – shock.
And the use of the ‘fucking’ wouldn’t be used for a stunt.
Itep
A political party only needs a core group of talent to lead it.
@Andrew Earlwood’s comment that labor may pick up 3 senators in more states and that the greens may fall short in Qld/SA
Current polling puts the greens Qld house vote at 11.8%, up from 10.3% at the last election. In SA greens are 11.6 (up from 9.6) from last election, where they won a seat. If you’ve got some evidence that the pollsters are that wrong, send it to them.
It’s not completely impossible for Labor to win a 3rd in SA or NSW. But it’s pretty unlikely, and won’t actually change the electoral calculus in any meaningful way.
Any realistic scenario in which labor win the third in NSW or SA, they’ve already won the third in vic and wa and a second in qld. At which point they have 11+16 =27. At that point, they cease needing to rely on lambie and ON and can pass things just with the 12-13 greens. The senate becomes simple. 3 parties exist – Labor, coalition, greens. Any 2 parties can pass legislation, no 1 party can pass legislation alone. ON, Lambie, xenophon, ACT inde may have seats, but their vote won’t matter.
A ‘normal’ reaction would be grabbing Will Smith and wrestling him to the ground.
steve davis at 2:50 pm
They are really good at ‘having a plan’. Quite what it is nobody knows.Beyond telling we peasants the Coalition ‘has a plan’ the presstitutes don’t seem interested in asking them what it actually is . The Mad Monk era was the golden age of them telling us of their ‘having a plan’. So many ‘plans’ so little substance.
It started raining steadily late last night. It’s still raining now. Standing in our kitchen, “This feels like last time”, I said. “Yep” was the reply.
Water is flowing down the street, backing up and swirling past a wheelie bin and a parked box trailer. The backyard is squelching. I read that flash flooding caused a death in Toowoomba this morning, and that some schools have closed. (link) The BOM radar could be from the last time too, though the rain is forecast to end by Wednesday. Let’s hope that’s right, but it sure feels like someone wound the weather clock back a month. It’s easy to get spooked, but those 100 year events are coming past a bit too often.
Lucky there were no witnesses when Smith hit Rock.
“ Current polling puts the greens Qld house vote at 11.8%, up from 10.3% at the last election. In SA greens are 11.6 (up from 9.6) from last election, where they won a seat. If you’ve got some evidence that the pollsters are that wrong, send it to them.
It’s not completely impossible for Labor to win a 3rd in SA or NSW. But it’s pretty unlikely, and won’t actually change the electoral calculus in any meaningful way.”
My SA comments re the Greens, relate to the Xenophon wildcard. I’m not sure HOW that will shake polling up there. As for NSW, history says that Labor has a chance in my home state, but I think this is largely dependent on (1) the drop in the LNP vote (if any) and (b) the extent to which this migrates across to Labor. A rough outside chance at best.
The Liberal Party’s economic plan is to let business do business while supporting its pet industries and the Liberal Party thinks the private sector is better than the pubic sector so when Morrison says people don’t want an active government its about the one thing we know he really believes his supporters want.
FAKE MEDISCARE ?
The Lord SfM giveth endometriosis research funding and the Lord taketh away. On January 1st 500 items were struck off the Medicare rebate list with hardly a whimper from the MSM.-Here is one of them.
“CrankyGrandma55SewerRatWelfareTrotBotCroodProle
Follow up MRIs and ultrasounds for those recovering from Breast Cancer have been removed from the list. They are now full charge. The only thing now free is actual Breast Scans through Breast Screen Australia. But once you’ve had breast cancer Breast Screen won’t see you. Its almost like we found it for you. Now die or live, Its up to your bank account”.
https://twitter.com/redruby17/status/15079
39329687306246
Latest from West Media.
https://youtu.be/miOKEjocXGQ
If Rock doesn’t press charges, you know it’s staged.
What does it mean to press charges? Is it just making a complaint to the police?