Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls

Essential Research continues to show Labor with a modest lead relative to other pollsters, while Roy Morgan goes further than ever the other way.

Two new federal polls:

• The fortnightly Essential Research result has both major parties on 37% of the primary vote, with the Coalition up one and Labor up two, and Labor leading on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure by 48% (down one) to 44% (steady), with undecided at 7% at both measures. The Greens are down a point on the primary vote to 9%, One Nation are steady on 3%, the United Australia Party is down one to 2%, and others are steady on 4%.

Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and down one on disapproval to 48%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 43% and down three on disapproval to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-34 to 39-36. Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 is down one to 39%, with disapproval up one to 35%. These results can be found on the pollster’s website.

The Guardian also reports the poll finds the government marked down on the its response to the recent floods, which was rated good by only 26% and poor by 40%. The poll also finds 57% believe floods will be worse in the future without significant action on climate change; that 53% believe coal should be replaced with renewable energy; and that 45% believe the Morrison government contributed to the floods through failure to mitigate the risks of climate change. Full results from the poll’s attitudinal questions should be along later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091.

• Roy Morgan has produced the most lopsided result in recent memory with its latest fortnightly federal poll, showing Labor leading 58-42, out from 56-44 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 31% (down two-and-a-half), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 12% (up half), One Nation 3% (steady) and the United Australia Party 1% (steady), with independents and others up one-and-a-half to 15.5%.

On the state two-party breakdowns, Labor leads 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales (out from 56.5-43.5, a swing of around 10%), 64-36 in Victoria (out from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 11.5%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of around 14.5%), 60.5-39.5 in South Australia (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 10%) and 60-40 from the particularly small sample in Tasmania (a swing of around 4%). However, the poll provides a further peculiarity in having the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, out from 52-48 last time, though this still amounts to a swing of around 4% to Labor compared with the last election.

The poll was conducted from a sample of 1418 last Monday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,643 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls”

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  1. Ukrainians seem to have bagged themselves a Russian warship in Berdyansk. Possibly the largest ship sunk in combat since the Falklands.

  5. Re Rex @6:59. “…Vile”.

    Yes. The whole saga of Australia’s asylum seeker policy this century is vile, a national disgrace. The purpose of “offshore detention” is to put asylum seekers beyond the protection of Australian law. Apparently the racists, the resentful and the talkback crowd were going spare over asylum seekers winning appeals against harsh and often illegal decisions regarding detention, deportation, etc. John Howard in his “brilliant” response to the Tampa disgraced himself, his office and the nation. That his approval rating skyrocketed as a result reflects very poorly on Australia,

    So we stopped the boats. Big whoop. We could also have stopped them by sinking them. That doesn’t make it right.

    [end rant]

  6. Re Friendly Jordies and the Judge

    Reminded me of this passage from Wind in the Willows.

    “To my mind,” observed the Chairman of the Bench of Magistrates cheerfully, “the only difficulty which presents itself in this otherwise very clear case is, how can we make is sufficiently hot for this incorrigible rogue and hardened ruffian we see cowering in the dock before us. Let me see: he has been found guilty on the clearest evidence, first, of stealing a valuable motor-car, secondly, of driving to the public danger; and , thirdly, of gross impertinence to the rural police. Mr Clerk, will you tell us, please, what is the stiffest penalty we can impose for each of these offences? Without, of course, giving the prisoner the benefit of any doubt, because there isn’t any.”

    The Clerk scratched his nose with his pen. “Some people would consider,” he observed, “that stealing the motor-car was the worst offence; and so it is. But checking the police undoubtedly Carrie’s the severest penalty; and so it ought. Supposing you to say twelve months for the theft, which is mild; and three years for the furious driving; which is lenient; and fifteen years for the cheek, which was pretty bad sort of cheek, judging by what we’ve heard from the witness box, even if you only believe one-tenth part of what you heard, andI never believe more myself – those figures, if added together correctly, tot up to nineteen years —“

    “First rate!” said the Chairman.
    “—So you’d better make it a round twenty years and be on the safe side,” concluded the Clerk.
    “An excellent suggestion!” Said the Chairman approvingly. “Prisoner! Pull yourself together and stand up straight. It’s going to be twenty years for you this time. And mind, if you appear before us again, upon any charge whatever, we shall have to deal with you very seriously!”

  9. Might be time to take a short walk…. maybe 12 steps long…

    OK not suggesting necessarily AA but he might need help of some kind. You drink and you can even drink to excess, but you need to do so with dignity.

  11. Steve777 at 7.22pm re ‘boats’

    I’ve been criticised here for suggesting a significant proportion of the electorate would, in PJ Keating’s words ‘find a great deal of comfort in the white Australia policy.’

    I recall Andrew Marr co-authoring (I think) a book about the 2001 election titled ‘Dark Victory’ – title says it all.

    I hold my nose over Labor’s ‘bi-partisanship’ on boat people. It seems research suggests this really is a winner for the Right. The whole thing is a disgrace, as is the fact mainstream politics seems to find profit in persecuting the persecuted.

    I also recall the 1980s, when Howard, as Opposition Leader, suggested reviewing the ‘composition’ of Australia’s migration intake. Hawke immediately brought on a Parliamentary debate around a proposal from Labor that Australia’s immigration policy be strictly non-racial. The proposal passed.

    What was depressingly instructive was an opinion poll showing 57% of respondents supporting Howard.

    Apparently, the rate at which we’re receiving Ukrainian asylum seekers/refugees far outpaces those we’ve received since the collapse of Afghanistan.

    There is some nastiness to be found in this space.

  12. I don’t really understand why Google didn’t take the videos down, unlike Shanks they had no political axe to grind and no way to judge whether the videos were truthful (or if any truth could be proven). Ironically they are going to wear the damages which Barilaro didn’t get from Shanks himself.

    Considering that Shanks is no longer a party and not represented in the hearing it is not really good form for the judge to go after him for contempt, that could have been done in the actual Shanks v Barilaro matter and wasn’t and could have been raised as a complaint by the lawyers targeted and wasn’t. Maybe they respect the right of citizens to have a bit of a whinge and parody people. I suspect nothing will actually come of it despite Rares J having a track record of occasional off the reservation decisions.

    The only point of interest left for me in the whole affair is if a smoking gun is found to prove political interference in the stalking arrest of Shanks’ associate which has now been dropped. Prove the cops reacted to pressure from Barilaro’s office to go after Shanks and that’s a truly explosive story.

  14. PaulTu @ #1558 Thursday, March 24th, 2022 – 7:29 pm

    B.S. Fairman says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 7:16 pm
    “Ukrainians seem to have bagged themselves a Russian warship in Berdyansk. Possibly the largest ship sunk in combat since the Falklands.”

    Or …… perhaps not.

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44797/the-case-of-russias-apparently-back-from-the-dead-black-sea-warship

    The ship that is claimed to have been sunk is the ‘Orsk’, not the one that your story refers to.
    https://www.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua/posts/340844301416492

  15. I strongly believe that Australia should be generous to asylum seekers from Ukraine. I also strongly believe that the fact that they are white and Christian will work very much in their favour.

  17. cant imagin Xenephon has much apeel these days back in 2018 he was leading in the polesfor a long time and their was talk he could be premier or in a hung parliament but his team fizled out plus REx patrick has takin over his vote any wayhowever if sharkie ran they would win as sharkie is very popular in Mayow with him Xenephon cant emagin grith is happy about it

  18. Sorry if already posted. North Korea have tested an intercontinental ballistic missile. It flew for 71 minutes and landed in Japanese waters. This is the first such test since 2017.

  23. I have been watching bits of the Judge Jackson Supreme Court Confirmation Hearing. The GOP has put her through the most racist, bullying, disrespectful, sexist questioning that you could imagine. It is a truly disgusting display. She was outright called a liar, at least twice, by whitebread males who are clearly racist, sexist, and stupid.

    Judge Jackson has been poised, collected, and on-point. She is still smiling and calm. She is wiping the floor with these maggots.

  25. Stephen Rares handling of the whole Friendly Jordies vs saga has been singularly depressing. Most of that probably isn’t his fault, but it does provide a perfect illustration of why defamation laws in this country should. Be simply scrapped altogether. In their place, a new, non court based, system should be enacted, giving folk an opportunity to respond to defamatory material. If needs be offending material can be taken down, but in most cases the remedy would be limited to a right of reply. In extreme cases matters could be litigated, but only where actual economic losses – as opposed to hurt feelings – can be established.

    It is simply risible that the Deputy premier – who could have hauled Jordy before the privileges committee of parliament at any stage – has been able to engage in this chicanery. none of the litigation will ever resolve the three key points and allegations in Jordy’s campaign against Bruz:

    1. He allegedly debt trapped a community club for the personal gain of his family;

    2. He allegedly lied nine times under oath to a parliamentary inquiry about a grant he approved to a mate; and

    3. His brumby protection laws, native vegetation laws and the NSW Goverenments faux koala protection have done more to destroy the holocene in this state than any of actions by a state government in living memory.

    The whole thing has turned into a piss poor rent seeking exercise which will have massive implications adverse to free speech and the preparedness of independent media to be courageous and bold against the LNP-MSM establishment cartel in the rum corp state, and throughout Australia.

  26. Arky
    “Prove the cops reacted to pressure from Barilaro’s office to go after Shanks and that’s a truly explosive story.”

    If you look at the latest FJ youtube concerning the policeman from the Fixated Persons Unit in question it would have taken zero political interfriance to get him going.. too gear to please might be an understatement. The parliamentary enquiry footage is possible as damming as you could get.

    No need for the justice to be concerned about FJ or Google bring the law into disrepute.

  28. Lambie has always been one to speak her mind and she has never held back from mostly fairly valid criticism of the Coalition government. I did think after the medevac deal that Lambie became significantly more hostile to Morrison and his government – it would seem clear why, now.

    And this quote of Morrison’s from the news.com.au report is just so very very Morrison:

    “It means she is happy with the government’s policies and the bill that was presented to the Senate, and she voted for it,” Mr Morrison said.

    Lambie has always struck me as being particularly “happy” about all of that.

  29. Kitching didnt dezerve tto retain her senot spot Andrew bolt admited she was backgrounding against Wong saying god now to the question that labor wouldnt be as tough on china as morreson efectively spreading luys aboutlabor desbite labor maintaining the policy of shorten towards China which was simelar to morresons its a sackable to actively work to reilect the other side and undermine foriegn policy plusShortens position of favering hussar and kitching over his shadow ministers letting kitching swon all over the country on commities would have created internal rezentment this is about geting rid of wong as shes labors most effective attack dog and a close advisor to albo she was shortens foriegn minister as well which msm neglets to point it out

  32. can any one emagin the outwage if malcolm turnbull leaked to labor bolt made a fus when he had a meeting with palmer yet kitching was regulaly pasing on information to damage alp to bolt and co plus 2gb using emma hussar as a victem desbite the fact she had a hi staff turn over and was cickt out of qt evry day and is using femanizm as a cover because of the mistakin buz feed article on sharen stone which actualy helped her play the victem meanwhile lambi says morreson threatind her with gail and briget archer gets halled in to a meeting with marise pain and fridenberg against her well when gerod renick is free to spread luys about covid and cros the floor with out any consequences morresons gaslighting of archer and banks has been glosed over by msm

  34. PuffyTMD @ #1584 Thursday, March 24th, 2022 – 8:12 pm

    I have been watching bits of the Judge Jackson Supreme Court Confirmation Hearing. The GOP has put her through the most racist, bullying, disrespectful, sexist questioning that you could imagine. It is a truly disgusting display. She was outright called a liar, at least twice, by whitebread males who are clearly racist, sexist, and stupid.

    And liars.

  35. Usman Khawaja: another century this tour! Two centuries, two other knocks of 90+ and a 40 odd not out in the second innings of the last test.

  36. not that lambie has got the refugie deal dun now of morrison wonder weather she will be still critical of lnp or turn on albo now to get a deal with labor party maybis shes aiming to beanother Brian Harideane however she hasnt delivered a lot of government projects to Tasmania like zeexephon disagree with a lot of pb poasters cant imagin Xenephon can win as he performed badly in 2018 Sa election when he qwas at his most populaer and poles sugested he would pertentialy become premier and REx patrick is a lot better of policy and unlike nick is interested in policy like fuel security not political stunts nick has been invizable for 3 years hopefuly alp will get 3 senaters up as they nelly did last time

  38. I always thought that those warriors of free speech who had nothing to say about our defamation laws weren’t fair dinkum. Those laws are irrelevant to most people. They basically serve to protect the venal and stupid among the rich and powerful.

  39. “SYDNEY, March 24 (Reuters) – The Solomon Islands has signed a policing deal with China and will send a proposal for a broader security agreement covering the military to its cabinet for consideration, an official of the Pacific island nation’s government said on Thursday.”

    Excellent work by the Coalition in securing Australia’s vital interests against our most likely enemy. Firstly we lease Darwin Port to China then we fail to prevent a deal between China and the Solomons that covers military cooperation. Remind me again why we should trust the Coalition when it comes to defending Australia’s security and national interests. ‍♂️

    https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-solomon-islands-considers-security-cooperation-with-china-official-2022-03-24/

  40. As Milan W. Svolik wrote for Journal of Democracy in 2019, democracies are most vulnerable to strongmen who were initially elected, such as Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Vladimir Putin in Russia, Viktor Orban in Hungary and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey. Svolik writes that in these situations, the autocrats’ tactics “rarely amount to an outright violation of core democratic principles.”

    Instead, he writes, executive takeovers have often been “gradual” and “legalistic.” Autocrats don’t have to bar elections (at least initially); they just control who gets to vote and who counts the votes. And they do not ban the free press right away; they change the law on defamation.

    … Strongmen often take advantage of those who are more horrified by the other side winning through democratic means than by their own side winning through anti-democratic processes. This is tribalism or “negative partisanship.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/22/what-we-can-learn-from-previously-democractic-countries/

    Yep.

  41. SA Best got 20% of the vote in the LC at the SA election though, which isn’t bad. Not suggesting Xenophon will get that though.

    I’d vote for him if I was in SA as he’s the best shot to deprive the Coalition of a Senate number should they be returned to government. Otherwise there’s a real risk they could have a blocking majority (half the Senate) which would put a stop to Senate inquiries, disallowance etc.

  42. ‘Cronus says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 8:54 pm

    “SYDNEY, March 24 (Reuters) – The Solomon Islands has signed a policing deal with China and will send a proposal for a broader security agreement covering the military to its cabinet for consideration, an official of the Pacific island nation’s government said on Thursday.”

    Excellent work by the Coalition in securing Australia’s vital interests against our most likely enemy. Firstly we lease Darwin Port to China then we fail to prevent a deal between China and the Solomons that covers military cooperation. Remind me again why we should trust the Coalition when it comes to defending Australia’s security and national interests. ‍♂️

    https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-solomon-islands-considers-security-cooperation-with-china-official-2022-03-24/‘
    ———————————
    This is really, really bad news for Australia.

  43. “The Morrison government was scrambling on Thursday after revelations of a draft security agreement between Beijing and the Solomon Islands which paved the way for a Chinese military presence on the Pacific Island nation.
    Confirming longstanding fears of Chinese encroachment in the region, the agreement, if enacted, would enable the stationing of Chinese armed police, and military as well as “other law enforcement and armed forces” in the Solomons, as well as the potential establishment of a naval base.”

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/alarm-bells-over-mooted-chinese-base-in-solomon-islands-20220324-p5a7fc

  44. So two stories in the last two hours – Morrison threatened Lambie to keep their deal secret, while publicly lying about it, and we’ve somehow let the Chinese set up a possible military presence in the Solomons…

    Amazing stuff.

  46. Boerwar

    Perhaps those tanks may come in handy after all? And much less need for long range missiles, we can opt for the cheaper short range versions. This government really has been asleep at the wheel regarding our national security and what of our Intelligence apparatus …. anybody?

  47. ‘Cronus says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 9:06 pm

    Boerwar

    Perhaps those tanks may come in handy after all? And much less need for long range missiles, we can opt for the cheaper short range versions. This government really has been asleep at the wheel regarding our national security and what of our Intelligence apparatus …. anybody?’
    ——————————————–
    It was no geographical accident that the Solomons featured heavily in WW2. They sit across our supply routes to the US. This really is bad news and shows a staggering degree of incompetence by the Coalition.

  49. what of our Intelligence apparatus …. anybody?

    I have no particular insight into that, but I would readily believe that they have been warning this government and as per usual Morrison and co have done nothing until it’s too late because they have better things to do making photo ops and trying to craft pointless legislative wedges against Albo.

    I mean, really, even without the spooks saying anything, the recent unrest in the Solomon Islands was literally a clash between people who wanted to get closer to China and people who did not. The risks could not have been clearer.

    Australia being a useless regional ‘leader’ with a crap Foreign Aid budget and politicians who would rather make jokes about Pacific Islands than actually do anything constructive … is it any wonder that we couldn’t keep our neighbours on friendly terms?

  50. Re the China/Solomons ‘security’ deal…

    Can anyone point to evidence that any government of the Right (Coalition since WW2, various parties before then) has actually enhanced Australia’s national security?

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