Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls

Essential Research continues to show Labor with a modest lead relative to other pollsters, while Roy Morgan goes further than ever the other way.

Two new federal polls:

• The fortnightly Essential Research result has both major parties on 37% of the primary vote, with the Coalition up one and Labor up two, and Labor leading on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure by 48% (down one) to 44% (steady), with undecided at 7% at both measures. The Greens are down a point on the primary vote to 9%, One Nation are steady on 3%, the United Australia Party is down one to 2%, and others are steady on 4%.

Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and down one on disapproval to 48%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 43% and down three on disapproval to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-34 to 39-36. Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 is down one to 39%, with disapproval up one to 35%. These results can be found on the pollster’s website.

The Guardian also reports the poll finds the government marked down on the its response to the recent floods, which was rated good by only 26% and poor by 40%. The poll also finds 57% believe floods will be worse in the future without significant action on climate change; that 53% believe coal should be replaced with renewable energy; and that 45% believe the Morrison government contributed to the floods through failure to mitigate the risks of climate change. Full results from the poll’s attitudinal questions should be along later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091.

Roy Morgan has produced the most lopsided result in recent memory with its latest fortnightly federal poll, showing Labor leading 58-42, out from 56-44 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 31% (down two-and-a-half), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 12% (up half), One Nation 3% (steady) and the United Australia Party 1% (steady), with independents and others up one-and-a-half to 15.5%.

On the state two-party breakdowns, Labor leads 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales (out from 56.5-43.5, a swing of around 10%), 64-36 in Victoria (out from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 11.5%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of around 14.5%), 60.5-39.5 in South Australia (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 10%) and 60-40 from the particularly small sample in Tasmania (a swing of around 4%). However, the poll provides a further peculiarity in having the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, out from 52-48 last time, though this still amounts to a swing of around 4% to Labor compared with the last election.

The poll was conducted from a sample of 1418 last Monday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,643 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls”

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  1. Lars Von Trier:

    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 6:00 pm

    [‘Presumably those who vetted BRS ought to give evidence on his behalf? If they were prepared to give him the VC why aren’t they now prepared to give evidence as to his merits?

    Surely those people in defence aren’t hanging him out to dry?’]

    In a nutshell, the process for the award of the Victoria Cross for Australia (created 15 January 1991) is that the ADF brass recommends to the M of D that a person is deserving of it. It then goes to the GG, for approval, then onto the Queen.

    Neither the defamation proceeding nor the Office of the Special Prosecutor is likely to be concerned with whether BRS was deserving of the award. That I think that is a fait accompli.

    To the best of my knowledge, the vetting procedure for the award would have started with Roberts-Smith’s superior officer (probably the SASR RSM), and then up the ranks to the
    Chief of Army, onto the CDF, then to the Minister of Defence, the GG, and finally to the Queen. Unless a blind eye was turned to Roberts-Smith’s alleged criminal activities, those recommending him with the VC were only concerned with his valorous service on the day that gave rise to the award.

    Couched in different terms, George V’s intervention was I think predicated on his view that subsequent criminal behaviour should not be a factor in stripping a recipient of the award.

    Roberts-Smith’s witness list numbers 10, the most prominent of which is Brendon Nelson, a former Director of the Australian War Memorial, along with 19 justification witnesses who may be called in reply to respond to the evidence by the respondents, 16 of whom are either current or serving members of the ADF.

    All that said, it wouldn’t be the first time that the ADF brass has hung someone out to dry, not that I’m enamoured of BRS.

  2. “ Excellent work by the Coalition in securing Australia’s vital interests against our most likely enemy. Firstly we lease Darwin Port to China then we fail to prevent a deal between China and the Solomons that covers military cooperation. Remind me again why we should trust the Coalition when it comes to defending Australia’s security and national interests. ‍♂️

    https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-solomon-islands-considers-security-cooperation-with-china-official-2022-03-24/”

    To the sow the wind – in this case, cut cut cut our foreign aid budget since 2014, treat our pacific neighbours with contempt, make jokes about water lapping at their door, belatedly patronise them – and heap the whirlwind.

    The Solomon Islands: our Cuba. Perfectly situated for medium range ICBMs and stealthy SSK submarines (no need for the ChiComms to bother diverting their SSN fleet from more important tasks when one can base a dozen modern SSKs a mere thousand NM or so off the Eastern Seaboard of Australia.

  3. So China’s foreign minister is visiting New Delhi tomorrow / at the same time the US has offered to replace the entire weapons arsenal of India (given their reliance on the Russians for kit).

    Who is going to offer the best deal to the Indians?

  4. I can’t see that any “character” witness would be relevant to countering 9 Media’s defence of truth. I’d have thought that BRS would need to call eyewitnesses to the various incidents in Afghanistan, in order to offer a different account of events – to establish a different “truth”.

    Character witnesses would be useful in establishing the extent of damage to reputation, but that seems to be dependent on what the truth is.

  5. Mavis – do you really think Defence would just look at the individual acts of the soldier or perhaps undertake a more searching examination of their conduct/reputation before awarding the VC?

  6. “ So China’s foreign minister is visiting New Delhi tomorrow / at the same time the US has offered to replace the entire weapons arsenal of India (given their reliance on the Russians for kit).

    Who is going to offer the best deal to the Indians?”

    If they were smart, the Indians would go with the French, and via France, all the other military contractors in Western Europe. All the kit they want and is available for sale in Europe is either equal to, or superior than, anything that America or China might flog them.

  7. Rakali says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 9:34 pm

    Is this true?

    In the last ALP Government, the party waited a couple of years before destroying it.

    The ALP seems to be much more efficient now. Destroy it before it even gets elected.
    _______________
    I tried but I couldn’t find a good Littlefinger meme.

  8. I find my self nodding in agreement with a lot of what Aaron Newman says. Not all but a lot.

    A lot of interesting observations. I read a lot of BK’s fantastic dawn summary. I feel like I get the unvarnished version with AN.

    I say keep it up. I’m happy to slow down my brain so I can take in what you’re writing. It’s my issue not yours.

  9. Former SASR officer Hastie says Roberts-Smith had a reputation for bullying Person 1:

    [‘Assistant Defence Minister and former elite soldier Andrew Hastie has told the Federal Court that war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith had a “widespread” reputation within the Special Air Service for bullying a fellow soldier.

    Giving evidence on Thursday in Mr Robert-Smith’s defamation case, Mr Hastie said there were “always in the background people who had a strong view of Mr Roberts-Smith and the way he conducted himself with other members” of the regiment.

    Mr Hastie, a captain in the SAS between 2010 and 2015, recalled “multiple people” saying that a soldier dubbed Person 1 “was the victim of bullying at the hands of Mr Roberts-Smith”.

    “One incident comes to mind, which I think demonstrates that it was a fairly widespread, prevailing view,” Mr Hastie said.

    He said that in November 2012 he had just returned from Afghanistan and was sitting among a group of soldiers, dubbed Persons 6, 31 and 68, at the Bindoon Defence training area in Western Australia…

    Seven’s Sunrise program was playing as the soldiers ate breakfast, Mr Hastie said, and “Mr Roberts-Smith appeared on the morning show in his service dress [and] full medals, and was talking about mental health charities that he was supporting”.

    “Person 68 stopped for a second and said loudly so that everyone could hear, ‘RS gave Person 1 depression; now he’s going to help him fight it’, and everyone laughed,” Mr Hastie said. “Laughter was the only response, but not at the expense of Person 1.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/roberts-smith-had-reputation-for-bullying-a-fellow-soldier-andrew-hastie-tells-court-20220324-p5a7ov.html

  10. WSJ: “German FM Baerbock said her country had already hit the limit on how many weapons it could ship to #Ukraine. A senior official in the Defense Ministry said Germany had plenty of weapons in its stocks it could send,but the real shortage was of political will”
    ————-
    Germany and Hungary, amongst European nations, seem the most luke warm in supporting a democratic country being invaded by Dictator.

    It’s the Huns and the Huns!

  11. Lars Von Trier:

    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 9:38 pm

    [‘Mavis – do you really think Defence would just look at the individual acts of the soldier or perhaps undertake a more searching examination of their conduct/reputation before awarding the VC?’]

    With the advantage of hindsight, yes they should have. But Roberts-Smith was a strapping young man at the time, fitting
    the archetypal Ozzie digger, good for recruiting purposes.

    There would be a number of senior officers who’d be regretting
    they didn’t do their homework – like speaking to Hastie for example. But as I said, it’s too late now unless the letters patent creating the award is amended.

  12. I’m guessing the Americans are livid with what’s happening in the Solomon Islands. This is supposed to be our backyard. It seems our government is all tough talk but no actual action. Given the French submarine debacle, I could only imagine their opinion of our current government.

  13. Backing the bowlers. Great declaration. I don’t care what the result is, the fact is Cummins has given them a shot at chasing it. Which will make them want to be daring.

  14. “I’m guessing the Americans are livid with what’s happening in the Solomon Islands. This is supposed to be our backyard. It seems our government is all tough talk but no actual action. Given the French submarine debacle, I could only imagine their opinion of our current government.”

    Oh how we laughed when Dutton mocked the Solomon Islands – and other pacific neighbour’s, and their plight fighting climate change – in front of hot mike, with Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison laughing along (although ScoMo at least had the sense to point to the hot mike and caution some restraint to the other two grinning idiots).

    https://youtu.be/rGMrGlAHUq0

    The quip was specifically directed in relation to a meeting in Port Morseby (the Pacific Forum, I can’t recall), but I note that PNG has recently also entered into strategic partnerships with the ChiComms under ScoMo and Dutton’s watch.

    Is it too late to salvage this situation? Probably the most significant deterioration in the security situation of our homeland since January 1942.

  15. [‘Brisbane: Ash Barty wrestled with her decision to retire for months; it was only finalised when the announcement plans were put in place. But as a 25-year-old at the top of her game, the Queenslander isn’t completely shutting the door on a return to professional tennis.

    On Thursday, Barty reiterated that her immediate plans in the early stages as an ex-player were still up in the air, but she wasn’t completely ruling out a return to professional ranks down the track.’] – SMH

    Good. With no other Australian player in the top twenty (Tomljanovic, 39; Minaur, 28), I’ll find it hard to watch much tennis.

  16. Typical Murdoch deflection.

    The Australian and Telegraph (Sydney) websites carry a story about the Solomons/China agreement, but in the lower rung of stories.

    The Aus leads with Morrison seeking to have Russia excluded from the upcoming G20 meeting.

    Telegraph leads with cricket and rugby league.

    So, I guess the Coalition can remain the ‘party of national security.’

    How big would the Solomons/China headline be if it were an ALP govt?

  17. apparently The Solomon Islands have signed a security pact with China. Just think for a moment why countries in the Pacific would be turning to China for aid.
    Well cast your mind back to the 1st Abbott Budget. $11 billion was cut from the foreign aid budget. $11 BILLION!
    the resulting vacuum was an open invitation to China to fill the void.
    In International relations foreign aid is often referred to as “SOFT POWER”. we, Australia, deliberately abrogated our soft power options.
    Short sightedness at its worst.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/18/tony-abbott-defends-11bn-cut-foreign-aid-vietnamese-pm-visit?fbclid=IwAR0SgPFGMJ508UGy75gGmpejfoMbcSu-N5EBut-faWDXIVJ1e4_wGXsajLw

  18. yabba:

    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 11:00 pm

    [‘I had mine last week. Moderna. At local pharmacy. Happy to give it to me.

    No side effects to speak of.’]

    Thanks. I thought one would have to wait for ATAGI’s approval.
    I’ll check with my chemist tomorrow.


  19. Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 9:35 pm
    So China’s foreign minister is visiting New Delhi tomorrow / at the same time the US has offered to replace the entire weapons arsenal of India (given their reliance on the Russians for kit).

    Who is going to offer the best deal to the Indians?

    So Lars are you saying that India played it cards well during Ukraine war?
    Some on PB don’t think so.
    I am surprised that Chinese Foreign Minister is visiting India after Chinese military attacked India in Kashmir and hobnobbing with opposition parties in India.


  20. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 9:40 pm
    “ So China’s foreign minister is visiting New Delhi tomorrow / at the same time the US has offered to replace the entire weapons arsenal of India (given their reliance on the Russians for kit).

    Who is going to offer the best deal to the Indians?”

    If they were smart, the Indians would go with the French, and via France, all the other military contractors in Western Europe. All the kit they want and is available for sale in Europe is either equal to, or superior than, anything that America or China might flog them.

    AE
    They do buy Military aircraft from France and they don’t buy anything from British.

    https://www-livemint-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.livemint.com/news/world/france-ready-to-provide-additional-rafale-fighter-jets-to-india-french-minister/amp-11639748837340.html?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16481249067083&amp_ct=1648124929101&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.livemint.com%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Ffrance-ready-to-provide-additional-rafale-fighter-jets-to-india-french-minister-11639748837340.html

    Unlike Australia it seems they don’t seem to put all their military eggs in one basket


  21. Snappy Tomsays:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 10:29 pm
    Typical Murdoch deflection.

    The Australian and Telegraph (Sydney) websites carry a story about the Solomons/China agreement, but in the lower rung of stories.

    The Aus leads with Morrison seeking to have Russia excluded from the upcoming G20 meeting.

    Telegraph leads with cricket and rugby league.

    So, I guess the Coalition can remain the ‘party of national security.’

    How big would the Solomons/China headline be if it were an ALP govt?

    Huge. Splashed in BIG RED LETTERS.


  22. barneysays:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 11:02 pm
    apparently The Solomon Islands have signed a security pact with China. Just think for a moment why countries in the Pacific would be turning to China for aid.
    Well cast your mind back to the 1st Abbott Budget. $11 billion was cut from the foreign aid budget. $11 BILLION!
    the resulting vacuum was an open invitation to China to fill the void.
    In International relations foreign aid is often referred to as “SOFT POWER”. we, Australia, deliberately abrogated our soft power options.
    Short sightedness at its worst.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/18/tony-abbott-defends-11bn-cut-foreign-aid-vietnamese-pm-visit?fbclid=IwAR0SgPFGMJ508UGy75gGmpejfoMbcSu-N5EBut-faWDXIVJ1e4_wGXsajLw

    Well barney
    As Tony Abbott said “Shit happens “.
    But the thing is
    Australians voted for Abbott government
    Australians voted for Turnbull government
    Australians voted for Morrison government.
    What does it say? They seem to like LNP governments of various hues.

  23. Oz headline:
    ‘Miracle victory’ voters desert Morrison
    Voters in the key demographics that helped Scott Morrison win the last election have deserted the Coalition over the past three months, a Newspoll analysis shows.

  24. Bernard Keane:
    Desperate to avoid the toxic fallout from the resignation of his friend and mentor Brian Houston from Hillsong, Scott Morrison has told an astonishing lie today, claiming he hasn’t been to Hillsong for “fifteen years” when pressed on the scandal by journalists.

  25. Bernard Keane:
    Desperate to avoid the toxic fallout from the resignation of his friend and mentor Brian Houston from Hillsong, Scott Morrison has told an astonishing lie today, claiming he hasn’t been to Hillsong for “fifteen years” when pressed on the scandal by journalists.

    The bloke cant help himself being a compulsive liar.

  26. The LRP led by Morrison…by far the worst government since 1949 and running a close second to the Government led by Menzies until October 1941 as the worst since Federation.

    Their arrogance is matched only by their incompetence, their dishonesty exceeded only by their stupidity.

    The election cannot come too soon.

  27. Well, here is all the years of cutting aid to the Pacific and disrespecting their govts come home to roost. 🙁

    Anyone who couldn’t see something like this coming is an idiot. And with the recent political troubles in the Solomons, well the Chinese have scored a coup. Expect more serious mapping / hydro graphic survey activity in the area by the Chinese as “assistance” for the Solomon Islands economic development…as well as more Chinese fishing fleet activity in the region as they will have a logistics base for that. 🙁

    Frankly, i half expected the Chinese to try and cozy up with East Timor like this but i guess that would be Indonesia’s problem as well and I dont think the Chinese want to go there.

    “In terms of perspective, the Russian navy has around 20 equivalents to the Orsk.”

    True, and the two that got away are much more modern….but its a significant slice of what they have that relevant in theater.

    Article here not bad and has a link to the best vid of this i have seen so far.

    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/03/ukraine-strikes-alligator-class-lst-with-ballistic-missile/

    All cuts into an already crappy Russian logistics effort. They have lost a big ship in this context, and, whatever cargo it was carrying. They also lose confidence in the availability of captured facilities. Not a war winner by any means but not insignificant.

    Seems the missile the Ukrainians most likely used is inertial guidance only, but has a CEP of better than 70m and a 500kg warhead. Ukrainians have a few apparently and they got lucky here. Old tech, but they still blow up big time. And, the vid is out so fast the Ukrainians obviously have people there observing in real time. ?? Oldish missile heading for high value target and it didn’t get intercepted??
    Hope the Russians were not relying on the ships to defend themselves as none carrying anything relevant to shooting down missiles??

    In the vid looks like a big fire with lots of stuff continuing to blow which fits with the missile storage story from the Ukrainians and a ship right in it that to me looks like its sitting at an odd angle. Three ships there of which two get away ok.

    Me, i am calling the claim of a sinking credible i reckon.

  28. Kitchings attacks on Wong and using China to get shorten back as party leader didnt make much sence when Shorten first appointed Wong as foriegn afairs spokesman in 2016 plus labor apozed port of darwin lease and Conroy first raized blocking south china sea saying we should join us in fredom of navigation how ever seemed he was freelansing the libs do have Sam dastyaris questionable links to go of,
    An other ironick thing is lib apolagists such as Graham richardson effectively said kk shouldnt be home afairs shadow as shes a woman and wouldnt be strong enough but when Karin andrews was appointed by morreson a couple years later said nothing albo needs to be les defensive and dead bat on to his policies and not fall in to the lnp trap

  29. dont understand whiy herald sun are going hard for kim carr to remain in senot he is beeen there for 30 years hasnt achieved a hole lot and on one hand they attack labor for not appointing enough woman like attacking Charlton in paramatter for being a millianair using clas war retoreck as if a millionair cant represent alp and then they campaign against lynda white

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