Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls

Essential Research continues to show Labor with a modest lead relative to other pollsters, while Roy Morgan goes further than ever the other way.

Two new federal polls:

• The fortnightly Essential Research result has both major parties on 37% of the primary vote, with the Coalition up one and Labor up two, and Labor leading on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure by 48% (down one) to 44% (steady), with undecided at 7% at both measures. The Greens are down a point on the primary vote to 9%, One Nation are steady on 3%, the United Australia Party is down one to 2%, and others are steady on 4%.

Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and down one on disapproval to 48%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 43% and down three on disapproval to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-34 to 39-36. Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 is down one to 39%, with disapproval up one to 35%. These results can be found on the pollster’s website.

The Guardian also reports the poll finds the government marked down on the its response to the recent floods, which was rated good by only 26% and poor by 40%. The poll also finds 57% believe floods will be worse in the future without significant action on climate change; that 53% believe coal should be replaced with renewable energy; and that 45% believe the Morrison government contributed to the floods through failure to mitigate the risks of climate change. Full results from the poll’s attitudinal questions should be along later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091.

Roy Morgan has produced the most lopsided result in recent memory with its latest fortnightly federal poll, showing Labor leading 58-42, out from 56-44 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 31% (down two-and-a-half), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 12% (up half), One Nation 3% (steady) and the United Australia Party 1% (steady), with independents and others up one-and-a-half to 15.5%.

On the state two-party breakdowns, Labor leads 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales (out from 56.5-43.5, a swing of around 10%), 64-36 in Victoria (out from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 11.5%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of around 14.5%), 60.5-39.5 in South Australia (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 10%) and 60-40 from the particularly small sample in Tasmania (a swing of around 4%). However, the poll provides a further peculiarity in having the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, out from 52-48 last time, though this still amounts to a swing of around 4% to Labor compared with the last election.

The poll was conducted from a sample of 1418 last Monday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,643 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls”

Comments Page 1 of 33
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  1. Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    ·
    4h
    Is it a bird, is it a plane, no it’s Morgan 58-42 to ALP (I get a mere 57.1 by last-election prefs). Morgan skews to ALP cf other pollsters. Fortunately the number’s got so high they’ve run out of past elections to compare it to.

  2. Hi,

    I’m a huge fan. This comment is unrelated to this article, but I couldn’t find another contact method.

    I am constantly glued to the Poll Bludger, and wondered if there might be a discrepancy in the data entry for March 3-6 Essential Research poll.

    The poll data tabulations show primary votes 49 LNP to 44 ALP, but I’m quite certain these numbers have been switched as the poll outcome was 49 ALP to 44 LNP.

    Yours in pedantry.

  3. The Morgan poll is wrong.
    The Essential poll is wrong, just less wrong.
    Remember 2019? All the polls were wrong.
    Remember Brexit and Trump? Most polls were wrong.

  4. Worst. Government. Ever!

    New buildings in Sydney are falling down because the state government tried to cut corners with final sign-off approvals from building inspectors, allowing developers to sign themselves off as meeting the building standards. Now this!

    NSW Planning Minister Anthony Roberts scrapped a requirement to consider the risks of floods and fires before building new homes only two weeks after it came into effect and while the state was reeling from a deadly environmental disaster.

    Mr Roberts last week revoked a ministerial directive by his predecessor Robert Stokes outlining nine principles for sustainable development, including managing the risks of climate change, a decision top architects have branded “short-sighted” and hard to understand.

    But a spokesperson for Mr Roberts said the minister had been “given a clear set of priorities to deliver a pipeline of new housing supply and act on housing affordability” by Premier Dominic Perrottet.

    The president of the NSW chapter of the Australian Institute of Architects, Laura Cockburn, said the decision was difficult to understand “after the recent devastating floods and with bushfires still scorched in our memory”.

    The revoked directives had sought to address “risk-management and resilience-building in the face of such disasters”, Ms Cockburn said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-planning-minister-scraps-order-to-consider-flood-fire-risks-before-building-20220321-p5a6kc.html

  5. Of course the weeks propaganda was going to back fire on the lib/nats and their corrupt media units , and the budget will make things worst for Morrison and his cronies


  6. Nostradamus says:
    Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 5:58 am

    The Morgan poll is wrong.
    The Essential poll is wrong, just less wrong.
    Remember 2019? All the polls were wrong.
    Remember Brexit and Trump? Most polls were wrong.

    The WA and SA polls predicting the Liberals would get a thrashing and the thrashing occurring gave you no renewed confidence in the polling?

    Looks like the Liberals latest wanks ( Albo has lost weight, and Penny is a mean girl) didn’t move the needle.

    I suspect things got worse for the Liberals because of the appalling performance when it comes to flood relief, perhaps if they had just spent some time doing their day job instead of indulging in school yard chants.

    How can any group of men be so dam incompetent?

  7. The public would be aware with Lib/nats and their propaganda media units poor combined primary vote in the low – mid 30’s , the nasty personal smear and propaganda attacks against Labor and other non lib/nat opponents would start closer to the election being called

  8. Does the media really think these will be forgotten
    1-Morrison fleeing to Hawaii when Australians needed a leader during the Bushfires
    2-Morrison and cronies lying about bushfire and drought support
    3-Morrison and his cronies corruption
    4-Morrison and his cronies incompetence of managing the economy ,Australia was in Recession before the corona virus pandemic
    5-Morrison and his cronies incompetence and lies of the Vaccine rollout, Booster rollout, Rapid Antigen Test
    6-Morrison and his cronies Let it spread ,Live with the virus , economy over health incompetence
    7-People getting seriously sick and dying , the lib/nats were mainly against lockdowns and state/territory border closures .
    8-People losing their jobs
    9-Employers allowed to discriminate against over 35’s
    10- Morrison and his cronies climate change denials and not helping the environment
    11- Morrison refusing to hold inquires into allegations against Porter and others
    12- Morrison refusing to help Higgins and other women
    13- Morrison never takes responsibly always blame others
    14- Morrison and cronies slow in helping Flood victims

    15- 2022 Budget if reports are accurate cash bribe to Australians who are not welfare receptions

  9. Would that Morgan poll be the first into the field since Scomo disgracefully tried to ‘pork barrel’ the flood response (not to mention dithering for a week to make sure he could be there for the photo-op and cowardly avoiding the victims)

    It seems that the floods could be the issue that sinks this government, solidifying the long growing impression that Scott Morrison’s just terrible in a crisis, and lies and rorts by default. At work and elsewhere am hearing basically everyone, unprompted, saying how angry they are with the government over it, even completely apolitical people who would probably normally vote nats. Scomo seems to be genuinely hated by many around here (nats seat). I reckon the baseball bats are most definitely out, and any budget bribes will be seen for what they are, pure desperation

    Not a single mention of Kitching/mean girls from anyone I’ve spoken to – it’s a media beat up and a non story. Far too many column inches wasted on it, including here

  10. It just looks increasingly like people have made up their mind about Morrison and the govt, and not in a good way for them.

    Also, how good would it be if Clarence Thomas dies? Would be great news for all decent thinking people.

  11. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 6:00 am

    NSW Planning Minister Anthony Roberts scrapped a requirement to consider the risks of floods and fires before building new homes only two weeks after it came into effect and while the state was reeling from a deadly environmental disaster.
    …’
    ==================================
    FAIL.

  12. Oh dear. Just after Newspoll produces it’s third roughly correct election forecast in a row in the SA election Morgan comes along and pushes the credibility of some polling to Nostradamus levels. 58-42, really ? The only part of that poll that sits within the bounds of reality must be the Queensland breakdown but that could be just as fanciful as any of the other State breakdowns and overall numbers . It reinforces my resolve to only pay any heed to YouGov/Newspoll forecasts.

  13. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 7:21 am
    Bluey reckons that hip pocketeer vote is the straw that is breaking the camel’s back.

    Spot on Boerwar. That cost of living pain widespread in the community along with dispassionate handling of the bushfires, covid and floods have destroyed any credibility Scomo had as PM. Paying $2.30 a litre for petrol gets everyone’s attention. There seems to be a wide spread WTF mind set that is going to be nigh on impossible for Scomo to reverse.

  14. Morgan just keeps getting better. No sign of the Narrowing so far, as the clock runs down to May.

    Is Clarence Thomas unwell? If it got to that point, if possible the Republicans would make sure he stayed on life support until the mid terms, in the hope of getting a blocking Senate majority for the replacement. And if that didn’t work, Tucker Carlson would find clear evidence that Thomas had been covertly assassinated by Democratic operatives using an enhanced COVID strain, secreted in a Bible, engineered by Biden’s allies in the Wuhan lab. That might energise the base.

  15. Sandman says:
    Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 7:22 am
    Oh dear. Just after Newspoll produces it’s third roughly correct election forecast in a row in the SA election Morgan comes along and pushes the credibility of some polling to Nostradamus levels. 58-42, really ? The only part of that poll that sits within the bounds of reality must be the Queensland breakdown
    ——————-
    Still a swing against LNP in qld, and QLD wont help Morrison and his cronies , if they are losing seats across the country

  16. Clarence Thomas was admitted to hospital with ‘flu-like symptoms’ which his allies are saying is NOT Covid.

    I suspect he’ll be released shortly and return to his war on modern society from the Supreme Court.

  17. The poll also finds 57% believe floods will be worse in the future without significant action on climate change; that 53% believe coal should be replaced with renewable energy; and that 45% believe the Morrison government contributed to the floods through failure to mitigate the risks of climate change.

    This whole country is ‘a day late and a dollar short’ when it comes to supporting action to deal with Climate Change. I mean, supporting it at the ballot box. Which it looks like this result may translate into.

  18. Confessions @ #18 Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 – 7:35 am

    Clarence Thomas was admitted to hospital with ‘flu-like symptoms’ which his allies are saying is NOT Covid.

    I suspect he’ll be released shortly and return to his war on modern society from the Supreme Court.

    Yes, I believe it’s septicaemia from having so much poison in his body. 😐

  19. Sprocket @6.48am…isn’t it good that Australia has such large expanses that it actually makes the LNP appear competitive when viewed as a large map

  20. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 7:35 am
    Clarence Thomas was admitted to hospital with ‘flu-like symptoms’ which his allies are saying is NOT Covid.
    ————
    Thanks Confessions

  21. Sandman,
    Just don’t ask me to spell manoeuvre! (Which I just had to go to google for the bazillionth time to spell check!) 😆

  22. @nostranazi:

    “ The Morgan poll is wrong.
    The Essential poll is wrong, just less wrong.
    Remember 2019? All the polls were wrong.
    Remember Brexit and Trump? Most polls were wrong.”

    Ummm. OK: remembering 2019, the margin of error between bludgertrack – and hence the average of all published polls – during the last 3 weeks of the campaign (ie. from the date that prepolls opened) – and tyhe actual election result was … under 3 points.

    Also remembering 2019 – you should check out the trend-line on bludgertrack for the period Jan to May, and compare it with this year thus far. …

    Oops.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Katherine Murphy and Paul Karp unpick the latest Essential Poll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/22/guardian-essential-poll-voters-mark-morrison-government-down-on-flood-response
    Peter Hartcher says the West is finding its purpose in the face of Putin’s butchery.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-west-finds-its-purpose-in-the-face-of-putin-s-butchery-20220320-p5a6ck.html
    China is at a crossroads, which means Australia is too, opines Alan Kohler who says it looks like Australia will finally have to confront the problem of trading with a repugnant dictatorship, unless China dumps its “no limits” partnership with Russia.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/03/21/china-crossroads-australia-alan-kohler/
    The shellacking the South Australian Liberal government suffered at the weekend shattered myths that have dominated the past three years and it spells big trouble for the Morrison government in Canberra, writes Paul Bongiorno.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/03/22/paul-bongiorno-scott-morrison-peter-malinauskas/
    The same federal Liberal MP who famously slept through a crucial parliamentary vote is now accused of being asleep at the wheel during the South Australian election campaign and turning his seat into a Labor target. Sturt MP James Stevens is being named by Liberal conservatives as “the failed architect” of the party’s disastrous negative campaign against Premier Peter Malinauskas, who led Labor to a historic landslide on Saturday. Writes David Penberthy.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/liberal-mp-james-stevens-asleep-at-the-wheel-running-failed-marshall-campaign/news-story/338f198a0f6f5b6814a25bc49c7c2c3c
    And the add to their woes, Paul Starick tells us that Liberal bitterness at the election disaster appears to have exploded with allegations of a slanging match between two rival women, with some claiming an MP was shoved by the other.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/sa-liberals-turn-on-each-other-in-the-wake-of-election-loss/news-story/e6cafcd98d7a52ffa627ac98ef7c2c3d?amp
    Voter anxiety about COVID-19 and a strong showing by independent challengers are worrying federal government MPs after the South Australian Liberals were swept out of office on the weekend, says James Robertson.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/03/20/covid-surge-independents-sa-election/
    Labor will hand down its own budget before the end of the year if it wins the federal election and has given itself the green light outspend the Coalition by saying its “guiding light” is the quality of spending, not quantity, writes Phil Coorey.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-ready-to-outspend-the-coalition-in-budget-20220321-p5a6f4
    The AIMN says that Josh Frydenberg’s address to the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) in Canberra brings the LNP’s campaign agendas back into full focus. The Morrison Government is depending on a budget bounce in polling to save some of the LNP’s furniture against a swing of up to 10 per cent in WA where the government holds two thirds of federal house seats from the 2019 elections.
    https://theaimn.com/election-2022-can-a-short-term-economic-indicators-save-mainstream-politics-from-more-adversarial-rhetoric/
    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is pushing global food prices higher, stoking fears that dangerous inflationary pressures will become more entrenched worldwide, explains Karen Maley.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/growing-global-food-shortage-stokes-inflation-fears-20220321-p5a6gy
    Here’s a decent analysis of Covid cases and deaths broken down in many ways.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/people-are-still-dying-from-covid-but-who-and-are-they-vaccinated-20220314-p5a4d6.html
    Mike Foley tells us that clean energy and regional blue collar jobs will be a target for both sides in the upcoming federal election, with the Coalition government asking for input on rules for building massive offshore wind farms that could power a manufacturing resurgence.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-campaign-winds-up-for-battle-over-offshore-wind-20220321-p5a6iy.html
    Meanwhile, Angus Taylor has declared that gas infrastructure and carbon capture and storage technology must be expanded to stop power prices rising and to back up renewable energy in the electricity grid, according to the federal government as it announced a $50 million funding boost to the industry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gas-carbon-capture-critical-to-power-prices-renewable-energy-minister-says-20220321-p5a6n5.html
    Energy giant ExxonMobil is warning millions of Victorians who rely on gas for heating, cooking and hot water face the threat of price spikes and possible supply shortages if the Andrews government proceeds with a proposal to halve gas use by the end of the decade, writes Nick Toscano.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/exxonmobil-fires-warning-over-victoria-s-plan-to-turn-off-gas-20220321-p5a6k0.html
    The AFR tells us that a new report by Microsoft and the University of London exposes some big gaps between Australian firms’ talk on emissions and their actions.
    https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-a-third-of-firms-will-miss-their-net-zero-targets-20220321-p5a6kv
    Both Graeme Samuel and Allan Fels tried to lure Gina Cass-Gottlieb to the regulator during their tenures. Now she’s the boss at the ACCC, says Max Mason.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/new-accc-boss-gutsy-with-extraordinary-knowledge-20220321-p5a6g2
    Putin has shown us we can no longer safely rely on imported oil. This is a wake-up call to electrify our transport systems and our government can lead the way, urges Curtin University’s Peter Newman.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-must-be-our-last-energy-crisis-sunshine-switch-can-start-today-20220318-p5a60a.html
    Jess Irvine looks at the alternatives to fuel tax.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/sure-we-can-axe-the-fuel-excise-and-do-this-instead-20220321-p5a6eh.html
    Industry experts have warned new South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas′ plan to rapidly build a government-owned hydrogen plant and storage facility exposed the state’s taxpayers to large financial risk.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/new-sa-premier-charges-ahead-on-593m-hydrogen-plant-despite-criticism-20220321-p5a6ee
    Daniel Hurst writes that Peter Dutton says a space command needed as some countries ‘see space as a territory for their taking’.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/22/peter-dutton-says-space-command-needed-as-some-countries-see-space-as-a-territory-for-their-taking
    According to Juie Power, NSW Planning Minister Anthony Roberts has scrapped a requirement to consider the risks of floods and fires before building new homes only two weeks after it came into effect and while the state was reeling from a deadly environmental disaster.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-planning-minister-scraps-order-to-consider-flood-fire-risks-before-building-20220321-p5a6kc.html
    Clinical Psychologist Clementine Hunt describes how the mental health of young people is almost visibly unravelling.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-mental-health-of-young-people-is-almost-visibly-unravelling-20220321-p5a6jo.html
    The Victorian opposition is promising to retain Labor’s mental health levy in a policy U-turn needed to dodge a $3.7 billion budget black hole if it wins the November 26 state election, reports Josh Gordon.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-levy-will-remain-opposition-in-mental-health-tax-u-turn-20220321-p5a6j4.html
    Paul Sakkal writes that Kimberley Kitching’s husband has told a roll call of politicians at her funeral in Melbourne that his wife deserved to be treated better than she had been by a group of Labor figures he described as a “cantankerous cabal”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/andrews-albanese-abbott-wong-arrive-for-kimberley-kitching-s-funeral-20220321-p5a6el.html
    And the Guardian also reports on the funeral service.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/21/kimberley-kitching-funeral-husband-praises-labor-senators-thoughtfulness-and-addresses-cantankerous-cabal
    There is nothing like hanging a politician with rope fashioned from their own exact words, writes Jack Waterford who explains advice he has given to young journalists over the years.
    https://johnmenadue.com/a-noose-fashioned-from-ones-own-words/
    Premier Peter Malinauskas is not expected to ease restrictions today, despite a marathon meeting with health authorities and a reader poll in clear favour of dumping close contact quarantine, writes the Adelaide Advertiser’s Andrew Hough.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/coronavirus/new-premier-peter-malinauskas-meeting-with-covid-authorities-over-nationally-consistent-rules-for-masks-close-contacts-and-isolation/news-story/1065d36bf2ecadc9bc818ccd546f2b1f?amp
    Extracting documents covered by the NSW Government Information (Public Access) Act 2009 (GIPA) is now a circus with the primary focus ensuring a complete lack of transparency and accountability, complains Sue Arnold.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/perrottet-government-tightens-grip-on-information,16174
    The RBA is the only major central bank in the developed world not to have undergone an outside or independent review this century, say Shane Wright and David Crowe who say Treasury has started plans for a post-election review.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/treasury-starts-plans-for-post-election-reserve-bank-review-20220321-p5a6dz.html
    Melissa Cobern argues explains why parents should be calling for a four-day week.
    https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/why-parents-should-be-calling-for-the-four-day-week-20220321-p5a6h5.html
    Independent Sydney MP Alex Greenwich’s push to legalise voluntary assisted dying in NSW could languish for months in the upper house as concerns rise that its opponents will use delaying tactics to stall the laws from being debated, writes Alaxandra Smith.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/concerns-rise-that-nsw-assisted-dying-laws-will-be-delayed-20220321-p5a6kn.html
    A Chinese high roller claiming to have spent $2.5 million in three days on hotel expenses at The Star casino did not cause a National Australia Bank executive to consider if the transactions were, in fact, related to gambling. Lucy Cormack describes yesterday’s appearance of NAB’s Tanya Arthur. Star’s risk manager also appeared/
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/high-roller-claimed-to-spend-2-5-million-in-three-days-at-the-star-hotel-20220321-p5a6fv.html
    Henry Reynolds looks at the rise of autocracies around the world.
    https://johnmenadue.com/at-war-with-the-autocrats/
    China faces its worst air disaster in three decades after a plane carrying 132 people plunged into mountains in the country’s south-east. It was a six-year old Boeing 737-800.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/plane-with-133-passengers-crashes-in-rural-china-state-media-20220321-p5a6mu.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

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    From the US










  24. Nostradamus: “ Remember Brexit and Trump? Most polls were wrong.”

    Most polls said Clinton would outpoll Trump by 1% to 5%.

    Clinton did outpoll Trump, by 2%.

  25. Energy giant ExxonMobil is warning millions of Victorians who rely on gas for heating, cooking and hot water face the threat of price spikes and possible supply shortages if the Andrews government proceeds with a proposal to halve gas use by the end of the decade, writes Nick Toscano.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/exxonmobil-fires-warning-over-victoria-s-plan-to-turn-off-gas-20220321-p5a6k0.html

    With the reports recently that Natural Gas releases dangerous amounts of methane into homes, even when turned off, I think that the nudge this should provide to convert appliances to electric (if it can be afforded), is a good thing.

  26. Last date to call an election is Monday April 18 (Easter Monday). Plenty of time to plant poison pills and raid the Treasury…

  27. S777 @ #29 Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 – 8:06 am

    Last date to call an election is Monday April 18 (Easter Monday). Plenty of time to plant poison pills and raid the Treasury…

    The odious Paul Fletcher doing the morning telly rounds blathering on about ‘Labor’s trainwreck NBN project’ which the coalition fixed, technology not taxes, meet and beat….etc..etc…he can barely keep a straight face as the bullshit pours out….

  28. Steven Marshall tried to claim

    Nostradamus says:
    Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 5:58 am

    Remember 2019? All the polls were wrong.
    Remember Brexit and Trump? Most polls were wrong.

    ————

    Yes the latest poll was wrong in S.A , it overestimated the Lib primary vote and under estimated Labor primary vote

  29. The shellacking the South Australian Liberal government suffered at the weekend shattered myths that have dominated the past three years and it spells big trouble for the Morrison government in Canberra, writes Paul Bongiorno.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/03/22/paul-bongiorno-scott-morrison-peter-malinauskas/

    AE
    From the article: Now that the senator has been laid to rest, there is a hope her “family and friends in the party” will lay down their cudgels. The fear is they will put saving their own diminishing power in the party ahead of defeating Scott Morrison.

  30. It looks like a grandiose set piece will be Morrison’s last hurrah before the election:

    Australia is expected to commit to a landmark investment package in India following a virtual summit between the nations’ leaders on Monday.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi discussed closer trade ties and co-operation in sectors including critical minerals and education.

    The package – worth an expected $280 million – has been described as the largest-ever investment by an Australian government in India.

    It will include sharing of renewable energy technology, defence and space co-operation and a new Centre for Australia-India Relations.

    … Officials are hoping to have the deal completed by the end of the month before the federal government enters caretaker mode once an election is called.

    The latest an election can be called and a caretaker period begins is mid-April, with polling day needing to be held by May 21.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/03/21/australia-india-investment-deal/

    He’s probably hoping to tie up the Indian-Australian vote by doing it.

  31. There can be quibbles about the absolute accuracy of a poll result. However, provided the method is consistent, the trend is your friend. Relative accuracy is much easier to achieve. Bilbo’s Bludgertrack exemplifies relative accuracy through inter and intra dataset comparisons. It is entering unfamiliar territory. We know less about the comparisons between respondent and voter behaviour in this situation. Are they sticky? Is it a one-off protest?

  32. “How can any group of men be so dam incompetent?”

    I remember seeing something that said that they are extremely competent for only a specific number of people that matters to them, and incompetent for the rest of us. You know, corruption.

  33. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The Morgan poll seems over optimistic but no sign that the Kitching non-story has had any impact on Labor’s lead.

    The news from Ukraine is awful. Russia is systematically targetting communications to prevent journalists reporting their tactics in Mariopol.
    https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dede

    And Russian ships in the Black Sea are already effectively blocking grain exports.
    https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-russia-blocks-ships-carrying-grain-exports/a-61165985

    Putin shows no sign of stopping. If his army fails he will switch to economic means. Australia will need a strategy for this, beyond threats to “shirtfront” Vlad.

  34. Interesting the criticism of James Stevens in the SA poll. He is the Sturt MP and has been completely invisible in this electorate for three years. I’ve never met him.

  35. Soc

    There is a direct relationship between hunger and starvation in the world and the price of ag grain commodities. The link below is essentially a death forecast graph. There have been similar global price hikes previously, including commodity shortages in grain exporting countries generated by climate extremes. This particular price hike has at least some component of Putin’s War in it.

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/wheat-price

  36. simon holmes à court
    @simonahac
    i just read a hilarious andrew
    @Bolt_RSS
    column where he claimed to have recommended to
    @marshall_steven
    that he blow up a wind turbine to virtue signal to _real_ conservatives.

    apparently if marshall had taken bolt’s advice, marshall would still be premier.

    never stop, andrew!

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