Two new federal polls:
• The fortnightly Essential Research result has both major parties on 37% of the primary vote, with the Coalition up one and Labor up two, and Labor leading on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure by 48% (down one) to 44% (steady), with undecided at 7% at both measures. The Greens are down a point on the primary vote to 9%, One Nation are steady on 3%, the United Australia Party is down one to 2%, and others are steady on 4%.
Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and down one on disapproval to 48%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 43% and down three on disapproval to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-34 to 39-36. Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 is down one to 39%, with disapproval up one to 35%. These results can be found on the pollster’s website.
The Guardian also reports the poll finds the government marked down on the its response to the recent floods, which was rated good by only 26% and poor by 40%. The poll also finds 57% believe floods will be worse in the future without significant action on climate change; that 53% believe coal should be replaced with renewable energy; and that 45% believe the Morrison government contributed to the floods through failure to mitigate the risks of climate change. Full results from the poll’s attitudinal questions should be along later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091.
• Roy Morgan has produced the most lopsided result in recent memory with its latest fortnightly federal poll, showing Labor leading 58-42, out from 56-44 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 31% (down two-and-a-half), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 12% (up half), One Nation 3% (steady) and the United Australia Party 1% (steady), with independents and others up one-and-a-half to 15.5%.
On the state two-party breakdowns, Labor leads 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales (out from 56.5-43.5, a swing of around 10%), 64-36 in Victoria (out from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 11.5%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of around 14.5%), 60.5-39.5 in South Australia (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 10%) and 60-40 from the particularly small sample in Tasmania (a swing of around 4%). However, the poll provides a further peculiarity in having the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, out from 52-48 last time, though this still amounts to a swing of around 4% to Labor compared with the last election.
The poll was conducted from a sample of 1418 last Monday to Sunday.
I maintain, based on everything I’m seeing and hearing, the election is going to be called 2/3 April.
The increase in appointments is the current canary.
The other point is I don’t believe Morrison passed an interim Supply Bill in 2019, only Turnbull in 2016 as the election was to be held over the start of the new FY.
An election for 7/14 May would leave plenty of time for the new House and old Senate to sort out supply arrangements after the election.
My theory as to why polling has gone awry recently is of course no has has land lines, no one answers numbers they don’t recognise blah, blah, but voters have also simply been lying to pollsters: reactionaries will vote for Brexit/Trump/the Libs but are ashamed to admit it because they know they shouldn’t. Perhaps this is progress of a sort.
Socrates @ #43 Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 – 5:24 am
He was Marshall’s CoS before contesting Sturt.
Polls can’t help but be wrong if they are as extreme as Morgan’s. There must be a sampling error there.
Or they’re winging it in the expectation of being first to predict the landslide.
Anyway, Dutton is relaunching Space Command today. He must be running out of stuff to announce if he’s down to repeats.
Speaking of repeats: a leadership coup is looking more likely day by day. Go Dutts!
Luigi Smith at 8:38 am
Polls should ‘bounce around’ if they are random samples. It’s the ones that never move that are sus.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #51 Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 – 8:36 am
Who was replaced by Simon Birmingham’s wife, Courtney Morecombe.
Speaking of SA:
Mike Rann
@Mike_Rann
·
Mar 20
Labor has picked up another Labor seat in SA……the southern Adelaide seat of Gibson. Congratulations to Sarah Andrews. All the seats taken from the Liberals have been won by strong, community based Labor women.
SNIP
It’s a good thing for the polling to diverge. Although the state samples are small, it’s interesting to note whether there really is a trend back towards the govt in Queensland.
I really can’t see the Liberals replacing Morrison as leader now, it’s too late and they don’t have the time really to execute it. The party rules were also changed to make it harder weren’t they? Whilst the rules could just be changed again, it adds another element of messiness to something that was meant to give the appearance to the public of stability.
Surely there must also be a bit of dignity in defeat, which certainly isn’t even gauranteed at this stage.
Don’t generalise, Noideamus. I never wished Clarence Thomas dead. In fact, I’m pretty sure he’ll survive.
The Lib/nats combined primary vote is below 40% on Federal election night , they are in opposition
The PM and Angus Taylor are in Queensland with the pork barrel this week in an effort to sandbag regional seats north of Brisbane.
“A multimillion tourism campaign focusing on the Great Barrier Reef and funding for major gas projects are part of big spending promises to be made for regional Queensland in next week’s budget In a regional Queensland cash splash”
Morrison will be in Covid-battered Cairns [seat of Leichardt] on Tuesday to announce a $60 million national tourism campaign, which will include $15 million specifically to get tourists back to North Queensland and to promote the Great Barrier Reef [which incidentally has suffered another significant bleaching event recently].
Energy Minister Angus Taylor will be in Gladstone announcing funding for priority gas infrastructure. It will be aimed at “protecting Australians from energy shortages as seen in Europe, keeping gas prices down and creating regional jobs”. He will announce $50 million to fast track seven key gas projects, including four in Queensland. Taylor’s announcements will be made in the seats of Leichhardt and Flynn.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/what-well-get-regional-qld-cash-splash-in-federal-budget/news-story/fa5e7131ccbfe18f5fb6d21242636b85.
The federal seats of Flynn and Leichardt that these announcements are targeted at are by coincidence 2 of the 3 most vulnerable seats for the LNP is Queensland that Labor are targeting for the 2022 election. The other one is Longman. Pork barrels ? Perish the thought !!
Nostradamus, your trolling is very amateurish. Children are better at it. Try harder.
Isn’t that what you were talking about in 2019 too Scott?
I guess it’s true, though. If the primary is below 40% and the ‘others’ vote isn’t largely made up with right wing minor parties, it makes it less likely they will win.
We did see that the Coalition performed better on primary votes than anticipated in 2019 though.
Wow. What a shitty thing to say – “one of the few… of any virtue”. That’s … not just low, but actually racist.
Lol @ the idiotic social norm of not wishing death on the odious. If someone wishes me dead, do I GAF? Of course not, because I’m not brain dead and don’t belief in stupid superstitions like bad juju or whatever.
If Morrison died, would I care? Of course not. Trump? Would do a jig. Putin? Would be the best thing for Europe and the world right now.
Also, the bloke who couldn’t get a chopper into Lismore for a week reckons only he can save Earth’s orbit from the tyranny of authoritarianism?
Ianucci couldn’t write this stuff for The Thick of It. Dutts is another one who the planet would be better for if he left it.
Jackol says:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 8:50 am
and wishing one of the few African-American persons of any virtue dead.
Wow. What a shitty thing to say – “one of the few… of any virtue”. That’s … not just low, but actually racist.
__________
Very much so.
ltep says:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 8:43 am
It’s a good thing for the polling to diverge. Although the state samples are small, it’s interesting to note whether there really is a trend back towards the govt in Queensland.
—————————-
That movement towards the Govt in Qld has been reflected in more than one recent poll- but the samples are small and it’s too early to know if it means anything. The headline national results are generally so negative for the LNP that if they are anywhere near accurate the LNP will be out on their ear anyway. Any softness in Qld will be balanced out by epic swings everywhere else.
‘Sandman says:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 8:46 am
The PM and Angus Taylor are in Queensland with the pork barrel this week in an effort to sandbag regional seats north of Brisbane.
“A multimillion tourism campaign focusing on the Great Barrier Reef…’
==============================================
The campaign theme being a minimalist white-on-white?
@Jackol:
“ Wow. What a shitty thing to say – “one of the few… of any virtue”. That’s … not just low, but actually racist.”
Yep, nostranazi letting his inner self out in his haste to ‘own the left’.
Jackol says:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 8:50 am
——————————-
Wow. What a shitty thing to say – “one of the few… of any virtue”. That’s … not just low, but actually racist.
————
+ 1. Normally I wouldn’t bother engaging with trollish and troll adjacent contributions at all. Explicit racism should be called out.
Normally I’d agree that wishing anybody dead, however lousy a human being they may be, is incredibly distasteful, but the US Supreme Court is designed in such a way that it actually requires people to die for change to happen, and because of that it’s almost totally random as to which presidential terms will see new appointments and which will not.
So, yes, when I observe the direction the US is travelling at the moment, and the sorts of rulings the judiciary have been making, I do find myself in the rather ghoulish position of hoping one or more of the conservative justices might leave this mortal coil. Nothing against any of those people personally, just the cold hard fact that in the absence of term limits (and with it being extraordinarily unlikely any of them would step down while a Democrat is in office), it’s the only way change is likely to happen in the court.
The sample size for the Morgan poll is 1418, which has a margin of error of 2.7% if the poll was unbiased and well conducted. The result of 58-42 is near (just beyond) that margin if the underlying reality were 55-45, which is what it seems to be right now.
Dare to dream for a moment that the number for Victoria comes true, it would see the end of;
Sukkar,
Frydenberg,
Wilson,
Tudge, and
Tehan.
Hunt, Andrews would be going if they weren’t already retiring;
Other less-threatening libs would also be gone, leaving Victoria with 3 NATS, and 0 Libs.
Wipeout…
Ok, you can wake up now.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 8:55 am
‘Sandman says:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 8:46 am
The PM and Angus Taylor are in Queensland with the pork barrel this week in an effort to sandbag regional seats north of Brisbane.
“A multimillion tourism campaign focusing on the Great Barrier Reef…’
==============================================
The campaign theme being a minimalist white-on-white?
–
Yep the disconnect is mind blowing. Here, have free money to screw up the environment some more and here’s $15M to go and see what we have had done to the Great Barrier Reef so far. WTF.
Jesus, I did my usual “speed-read Nostradamus’ posts and have a bit of a laugh” thing and missed this the first time around.
For his sake, I hope that was just an incredibly juvenile trolling attempt.
Putin will be stopped by his own inner circle.
Hoping it will be soon.
Asha says:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 9:04 am
For his sake, I hope that was just an incredibly juvenile trolling attempt.
________
Very rarely do you racism stated so explicitly these days. This is hardcore stuff and also completely wrong.
Nostra being racist might be the least surprising thing I’ve seen in a while.
Boerwar at 8:55 am
The music being “A Whiter Shade of Pale” ?
Not to labour the point, but I have to +1 all the comments made about Nostradamus racist rant. What a pathetic thing to say.
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 8:41 am
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #51 Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 – 8:36 am
Socrates @ #43 Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 – 5:24 am
Interesting the criticism of James Stevens in the SA poll. He is the Sturt MP and has been completely invisible in this electorate for three years. I’ve never met him.
He was Marshall’s CoS before contesting Sturt.
Who was replaced by Simon Birmingham’s wife, Courtney Morecombe
”
They are like any other party like ALP, Greens, Nats etc. in Australia, who reward their close friends and family members.
UK Cartoons:
NSW :
Another four people with COVID-19 have died in the state.
There are 1,177 people in hospital and 41 of those are in ICU.
The state reported 20,960 new cases.
………………………………………………………………………………………
Victoria :
Victoria has reported seven new COVID-related deaths and 9,594 new cases.
There are 256 people in hospital, up slightly from 248 reported on Monday, including 24 in ICU and five on ventilators.
Sixty-four per cent of Victorian adults have now received three doses of a vaccine, while more than 94 per cent of those aged 12 and over have received two.
There are 52,983 active cases in the state.
I’d like to hear Nostradamus’ opinion of Ketanji Brown Jackson.
ltep says:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 8:48 am
Isn’t that what you were talking about in 2019 too Scott?
_________________________________________
Yes that is baseline for the Lib/nats in every election . unless the lib/nats government has a big seat majority .aka Howard government 1998
The lib/nats will not retain governments with primary vote below 40%
NSW back up to over 20,000 new Covid cases, Victoria nearly 10,000.
The total number of cases in Australia since the start of the Pandemic will pass 4 million tomorrow (or possibly today).
History:
1 case 25/1/2020
10,000 14/7/2020
100,000 28/9/2021
1,000,000 10/1/2022
2,000,000 21/2/2022
3,000,000 19/2/2022
4,000,000 23/3/2022
https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/aus
Steve777 @ #85 Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 – 9:21 am
Amazing – 1 million new cases in -2 days!
“A multimillion tourism campaign focusing on the Great Barrier Reef…’
It’s all he knows. Advertising campaigns. What next? Bring back Lara Bingle?
One wonders whether Victoria 2022 will replicate Qld 2019 in that a thrashing of the LNP will result? “Well might Morrison ‘sandbag’ seats in Qld … because nothing will save his hide in Victoria … and WA … and possibly NSW and SA” … to butcher a famous quote.
If the numbers don’t narrow after a “bribery” budget, the current situation for the #LNP must look dire.
”
Victoriasays:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 9:06 am
Putin will be stopped by his own inner circle.
Hoping it will be soon.
”
With long tables maybe not.
BTW, does he ask his maids and servants to taste his food before he consumes it like old Tzars?
Amazing – 1 million new cases in -2 days!
Typo corrected.
First million: just under 2 years
Second million: 11 days
Third million: 29 days
Fourth million: 32 days
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 9:20 am
I’d like to hear Nostradamus’ opinion of Ketanji Brown Jackson.
___________
Looking at the Roman virtues for example, you don’t need to be academically gifted to have them:
Auctoritas–“Spiritual Authority”: The sense of one’s social standing, built up through experience, Pietas, and Industria.
Comitas–“Humor”: Ease of manner, courtesy, openness, and friendliness.
Clementia–“Mercy”: Mildness and gentleness.
Dignitas–“Dignity”: A sense of self-worth, personal pride.
Firmitas–“Tenacity”: Strength of mind, the ability to stick to one’s purpose.
Frugalitas–“Frugalness”: Economy and simplicity of style, without being miserly.
Gravitas–“Gravity”: A sense of the importance of the matter at hand, responsibility and earnestness.
Honestas–“Respectibility”: The image that one presents as a respectable member of society.
Humanitas–“Humanity”: Refinement, civilization, learning, and being cultured.
Industria–“Industriousness”: Hard work.
Pietas–“Dutifulness”: More than religious piety; a respect for the natural order socially, politically, and religiously. Includes the ideas of patriotism and devotion to others.
Prudentia–“Prudence”: Foresight, wisdom, and personal discretion.
Salubritas–“Wholesomeness”: Health and cleanliness.
Severitas–“Sternness”: Gravity, self-control.
Veritas–“Truthfulness”: Honesty in dealing with others.
As bongiorno points out, the Libs trying to make hay out of ALP internal politicking is a bit rich considering whats going on in nsw on their side
this “stale govt desperately flailing that people have given up on”… it would definitely point to a landslidy swing. Would be great to see if punters have this perception as opposed to any real interest in fed politics at all yet. Im still not sure whether its done and dusted or hasnt even really started meaningfully… us political tragics are in no way reflective of the general voting populace
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 9:20 am
I’d like to hear Nostradamus’ opinion of Ketanji Brown Jackson.
”
Who?
If any New South Welshpersons are so inclined and motivated, keep the pressure in the NSW Upper House. Piss weak shilly shallying on legislation that had comfortably passed the lower house needs to be debated, once and for all. Head in the sand / too hard basket / bottom drawer is the stuff of gutless wonders, not supposedly mature elected representatives of the people.
For the send of a message:
https://dwdnsw.good.do/MLCDelay/March22/
And I’m guessing Nostradamus would mention none of that but would kick off with the Q-adjacent ‘child pornography’ which is being weaponised by the fascist adjacent Right in America against KBJ… 🙄
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 9:26 am
“A multimillion tourism campaign focusing on the Great Barrier Reef…’
It’s all he knows. Advertising campaigns. What next? Bring back Lara Bingle?
”
“Where the hell are you” Lara?
The US Supreme Court is a writeoff for the next 10 years at least. The Dodds and Harvard admission judgements will signify the start of the deathknell of all progressive jurisprudential bulwarks.
This is independent of anything that happens with Clarence Thomas or Ketanji Jackson.
Its the abiding legacy of Trump winning in 2016. His luck in getting 3 picks with a senate majority in one term makes his term consequential in ways Obama or Biden could only dream about. Just tragic, but the deal is done
Ven @ #93 Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 – 9:32 am
Joe Biden’s nominee for the American Supreme Court. An African American woman with superlative legal credentials.