Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls

Essential Research continues to show Labor with a modest lead relative to other pollsters, while Roy Morgan goes further than ever the other way.

Two new federal polls:

• The fortnightly Essential Research result has both major parties on 37% of the primary vote, with the Coalition up one and Labor up two, and Labor leading on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure by 48% (down one) to 44% (steady), with undecided at 7% at both measures. The Greens are down a point on the primary vote to 9%, One Nation are steady on 3%, the United Australia Party is down one to 2%, and others are steady on 4%.

Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and down one on disapproval to 48%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 43% and down three on disapproval to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-34 to 39-36. Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 is down one to 39%, with disapproval up one to 35%. These results can be found on the pollster’s website.

The Guardian also reports the poll finds the government marked down on the its response to the recent floods, which was rated good by only 26% and poor by 40%. The poll also finds 57% believe floods will be worse in the future without significant action on climate change; that 53% believe coal should be replaced with renewable energy; and that 45% believe the Morrison government contributed to the floods through failure to mitigate the risks of climate change. Full results from the poll’s attitudinal questions should be along later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091.

• Roy Morgan has produced the most lopsided result in recent memory with its latest fortnightly federal poll, showing Labor leading 58-42, out from 56-44 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 31% (down two-and-a-half), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 12% (up half), One Nation 3% (steady) and the United Australia Party 1% (steady), with independents and others up one-and-a-half to 15.5%.

On the state two-party breakdowns, Labor leads 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales (out from 56.5-43.5, a swing of around 10%), 64-36 in Victoria (out from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 11.5%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of around 14.5%), 60.5-39.5 in South Australia (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 10%) and 60-40 from the particularly small sample in Tasmania (a swing of around 4%). However, the poll provides a further peculiarity in having the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, out from 52-48 last time, though this still amounts to a swing of around 4% to Labor compared with the last election.

The poll was conducted from a sample of 1418 last Monday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,643 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls”

Comments Page 3 of 33
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  3. These pre-election sticky tape and glue antics only further emphasise what a cock-up they’ve made of one of the biggest social and economic infrastructure imperatives of the last century. It wont make two hoots of difference to voting intentions, but just rub salt in their incompetence wounds.

    $750 million federal cash splash to boost regional internet speeds and connect more homes to NBN wireless

    NBN’s Skynet or whatever it is is pretty hopeless. Musk has the answer for those who can afford it.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-22/750-million-regional-internet-cash-splash-federal-election/100928126

  5. Victoria has a twice-weekly rapid testing program for school and early childhood staff and students along with mandatory masks indoors for all staff and students in year 3 and above.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/17/victoria-and-nsw-ease-covid-restrictions-but-indoor-mask-mandates-remain-for-now

    NSW:
    Students and staff in NSW will no longer be required to take twice-weekly rapid antigen tests from February 28.
    From Monday 28 February 2022, secondary school students and staff will no longer be required to wear masks.
    From Monday 7 March 2022, primary and early education staff will no longer be required to wear masks.
    https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/stay-safe/advice-for-parents-students

    Covid 7 day Avg (at lowest point after Omnicron wave):
    Vic 22nd Feb: 5,197
    NSW 26th Feb: 7,299

    Todays Current Covid Number:
    Vic: 9,594 ( 7 day avg – ~8,000)
    NSW: 20,960 (7 day avg approaching 20k).
    ____________________________________________________________
    Is this the reason for the disparity over the past few weeks?

  6. Another piece from John Menadue’s stable on how we got into the Ukraine disaster with thoughts of how and if it could have been avoided. Kissinger, among others, this time.

    The greatest living strategic thinker in the US today is Henry Kissinger. He didn’t oppose the expansion of NATO to the former Warsaw Pact states of Eastern Europe. But he strongly counselled against admitting Ukraine into NATO. As a good student of history, Kissinger pointed out why Ukraine was viewed differently by Russians. In a 2014 article published in the Washington Post, this is what Kissinger said, “The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country. Russian history began in what was called Keivan-Rus. The Russian religion spread from there. Ukraine has been part of Russia for centuries, and their histories were intertwined before then. Some of the most important battles for Russian freedom, starting with the Battle of Poltava in 1709, were fought on Ukrainian soil.”

    As a wise statesman, Kissinger proposed a sensible compromise solution. On the one hand, he said, “Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political associations, including with Europe.” On the other hand, he said (in 2014), “Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when it came up.”

    https://johnmenadue.com/where-are-the-peacemakers-in-ukraine/

  7. I cant access article. But this is the Herald Sun
    take on SA election result. Sheesh

    ——-

    Labor’s comfortable victory in the South Australian election is proof that voters no longer fear the pandemic, which should cause anxiety for some Victorian Labor MPs.

    https://t.co/9fFL0uZqFg

  10. Looks like Labor ‘renewal’ in Victoria will come in the form of Linda White, who is just 3 years younger than the outgoing senator.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/union-boss-hits-out-at-anthony-albanese-for-senate-fight/news-story/ed29b65b6e69352ae5def06fb1075425

    I’ve long thought Labor could just wipe the entire slate clean in every state and start again and there’d be no major loss. It’s hard to take calls for renewal seriously when people like Helen Polley have been preselected for another 6 year term.

  12. Shellbell

    You are misundrstanding the situation.

    People get tested when they have symptoms.

    In NSW obviously more people are displaying symptoms. Look at the difference in hospitalisation rates as well. NSW have nearly 1200 people in hospital. Victoria has 256.

    As mentioned above, vic schools still have a testing regime. Only positive rat results are uploaded to system.

  13. Expat:

    “ The US Supreme Court is a writeoff for the next 10 years at least. The Dodds and Harvard admission judgements will signify the start of the deathknell of all progressive jurisprudential bulwarks.

    This is independent of anything that happens with Clarence Thomas or Ketanji Jackson.

    Its the abiding legacy of Trump winning in 2016. His luck in getting 3 picks with a senate majority in one term makes his term consequential in ways Obama or Biden could only dream about. Just tragic, but the deal is done”

    ___________

    But her emails.

    Goldman Sacks.

    I think I’ll sit this one out. …

  14. Personalising the shame of it all:

    One of the people to be highlighted in their campaign is father-of-two Lawrie Daniel, who took his own life before multiple sclerosis robbed him of the use of his hands. Mr Daniel left a heartbreaking note to his wife Rebecca as well as one for the NSW Coroner.

    In his letter to his wife, Mr Daniel wrote: “If we had a compassionate voluntary euthanasia process in this country, none of this would have to happen the way that it has … I hope you can forgive me, and that you and the children won’t see this as selfish, but as self-care, and self-compassion in a country where I had no alternative.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/concerns-rise-that-nsw-assisted-dying-laws-will-be-delayed-20220321-p5a6kn.html

  15. Herald Sun 2203
    The move is incredibly significant because one of Kitching’s key grievances with the party was that she campaigned fiercely for a so-called “Magnitsky Act” allowing Australia to sanction foreign individuals for corruption or human rights abuses only to be reportedly blocked by Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong.

    Senator Wong later backflipped and announced the move in Kitching’s absence. Rubbing salt into the wound, Kitching was also denied party funding to travel to London to accept her own Sergei Magnitsky Human Rights Award for her efforts.
    _____________________
    Classy stuff from Wong and I bet she was also behind the denial of party funding for the London trip.

  16. Oh and another thing. Did NSW ever get around to providing free rat kits to the public.

    Here in victoria, that is the main way of testing. PCR tests are usually done to double check a positive reading from Rat.

  17. “NBN’s Skynet or whatever it is is pretty hopeless. Musk has the answer for those who can afford it.”

    I’m not sure he does for long, although I think he gets a lot of taxpayer money, but like the dumb small expensive but slow (both construction and commute on construction) tunnels company these satellites are a terrible technical and even worse commercial idea.

  18. Vic also has a lower positivity rate on the PCR testing that is done.

    However with RAT tests being done in such large numbers in Victoria v NSW, you’d expect much bigger numbers of self-reported positive cases in Vic.

    It looks like one of those examples where a small spending outlay on testing kits and the minor imposition of masks can save a state much in terms of lost productivity. I’m surprised that the business council isn’t arking up about this like Noah…

  19. “Classy stuff from Wong”

    i can’t believe the disgusting sewer dwelling rats are still going on about this non story. They are disgusting and should take a very good hard look at themselves, before committing to be much much better or go and live in a cave alone for the rest of their pathetic evil existences.

  21. WWP

    Especially considering the abject failure by the federal and NSW state govt handling the catastrophic floods.

    Taylormade ought to be truly ashamed of his damn stupidity,

  23. From what I understood Wong didn’t backflip, the Caucus did. As for not using party funds to travel to accept personal awards, that seems sensible to me.

  24. There’s a few pundits who seem under a misapprehension that the Victorian ALP vote was propped up by the pandemic. If anything the only thing the Vic Libs had going for them was voters angry about Andrews’ handling of the pandemic. If that’s going out of sight out of mind they’ve really got nothing. “I stand with Dan” types, newsflash, would all be Labor rusted on regardless of the pandemic. They are not Liberal voters who will now cross back to Guy!

    Just as those of us outside SA had no reason to see Marshall’s fall coming until the polls started coming out, pundits outside Vic who think they know Vic don’t.

    The only thing in the Vic Libs favour is that hopefully Morrison will be gone by November, historically unpopular Federal governments do drag on their state counterparts, that might be worth a couple of points. A couple of points just because last time’s record mauling was always going to revert to the mean a little, a couple points less protest against the Feds, and they still get their asses kicked, the Murdoch press spins it as somehow a win for their side because they recover a small handful of heartland seats lost last time, Andrews gets on with governing.

  25. Can not see how the Victorian lib/nats are considered any chance of making the Victorian State election close

    The Victorian lib/nats wanted Victoria to follow Federal and Nsw lib/nats disaster let it spread and live with the virus , all the way during the corona virus pandemic

    Lib/nats Under Matthew Guy lost the so called drovers dog could have won the Victorian election in 2018

  26. Scott – why on earth would 2018 in Vic be a “drover’s dog” election? Andrews was very popular on the back of the success of the level crossing removal program and other infrastructure building. Perceived as a government doing something after the big knock on the Bailieu government even from Lib voters was it was a do nothing government. It was always going to be a hard one for Guy to win. What was amazing wasn’t that he lost but that the margin was so huge and seats fell that had never previously had a Labor member.

  27. Arky says:
    Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 10:26 am
    Scott – why on earth would 2018 in Vic be a “drover’s dog” election?
    ——————

    ask the Newsltd hacks and the rest of lib/nats propaganda media units , they were the ones calling it that

  28. Re the Morgan poll, what will give me nightmares until the election is the possibility Morgan is correctly picking up a problem in Queensland that nobody else is (remembering that basically no polling identified the growing black hole for the ALP in Queensland in the lead up to 2019) while the huge swings to the ALP elsewhere in Australia remain illusory)

  30. The big problem with the Vic Libs is that their campaign still seems to be focused on the past – obsessing about lockdowns and mask wearing, for example.

    A couple of anaylses I’ve seen have said that’s the mistake Marshall made in SA.

  31. Arky
    Qld wont be a problem for Alp , Morrison and his cronies are the ones who losing seats and not picking up seats they lose any where across Australia

  32. Qld is going to be the ALP’s worst state… but we shouldn’t awaken in cold sweats over it.

    Qld will still swing to Labor, but the swing will be really weird and terribly uneven. That’s about as far as I’m prepared to go, lol.

  33. Federal LNP holds 23 seat out of 29 Seats in QLD

    Cant see them winning extra 6 seats in QLD to win all of the 29seats in QLD , 2022 federal election to cover up for any seats they lose elsewhere

  34. Mike Rann
    @Mike_Rann
    A big contingent of Federal Lib strategists worked on the SA Lib campaign. They wanted the re-election of Libs in SA to halt the momentum towards a change of government nationally. They really let Steven Marshall down. Will Scott Morrison continue to have faith in their advice?

  35. Scott says:
    Tuesday, March 22, 2022 at 10:22 am
    Can not see how the Victorian lib/nats are considered any chance of making the Victorian State election close
    ———————-
    I’d not be all that surprised to see it closer than expected, given the common expectation of another large Dan Andrews win – though polling in 2021 lent some support for that view.

    Reasons to think it could be closer than expected:

    – reversion to mean. Andrews’ 2018 win was one of the best ALP 2PP results ever in Vic ( 57ish, I think second only to the 2002 Brackslide). The average ALP 2PP in Vic State elections is probably around 52-53 2PP.
    – State governments often have a sizeable swing against them in the election following a big win
    – if Albo is PM the swing is likely to be higher, as State governments typically experience greater swings against them if the governing party in Canberra is of the same political complexion as the State government. If Albo is still in the honeymoon period in November this may be less of a factor.
    – simple uncertainty: anything could happen between now and November.

    If Andrews wins and stays on he will become the longest serving ALP premier of Victoria, passing John Cain Jr early in the next term. All being well he’ll exceed Bracksy’s period in office later this year. He’s already been Premier for longer than Kennett.

  36. max

    Based on my observations at present, I am not expecting vic state Labor to win comfortably at next election.

    The next three or four months will tell the story.

  38. Okay then

    Julia Davis
    @JuliaDavisNews
    ·
    2h
    Russian state TV Just Declared War on… Arnold Schwarzenegger:

    “ARNIE, YOU ARE A PREDATOR AND AN ENEMY.”

    thedailybeast.com
    Kremlin TV Just Declared War on… Arnold Schwarzenegger
    Moscow’s mouthpieces did not take well to a recent video message from Arnold Schwarzenegger, in which urged the Russian people to see

  39. The Queensland state government has been under a lot of pressure as of late. It’s possible that has bled into the federal polling. Or Morgan’s state samples could just be dodgy.

  40. Nath:

    Very rarely do you racism stated so explicitly these days. This is hardcore stuff and also completely wrong.

    For sure. It’s probably the most blatantly racist thing I’ve read on this blog.

  41. Virginia Trioli
    @LaTrioli
    In ⁦
    @crikey_news
    ⁩ Guy Rundle doing great work on the controversial histories of Kimberley Kitching and Andrew Landeryou – this I remember well from many years ago, even though history didn’t bear out the final line …

    theage.com.au
    The tycoon, the missing husband and the millions
    10:09 AM · Mar 22, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-tycoon-the-missing-husband-and-the-millions-20050423-ge0131.html

  43. Morgan is imputing support for 3rd voices at very high levels: 31.5%. The computed support for Labor in 2PP terms is an artefact of this rather than of direct PV support for Labor. Morgan attributes direct PV support Labor at 37.5%. This contrasts with 40.4% recorded in SA at the weekend. Intuitively, I think Morgan is under-stating the Labor PV to a considerable degree. In turn, the switch from the LRP to Labor is under-rated by Morgan.

    I think the imputed support for 3rd voices means the 2PP measure that’s published is not helpful in some ways. While I think the LRP is about to be electorally disembowelled, in part this will reflect the loss of LRP seats to Independent/Voice candidates rather than to Labor. I also think there is no chance whatsoever that the Green vote will be 12%. They will do well to get 8-9%.

    I wonder if there’s not some way to re-figure the 2PP projection and compute 2CP measures instead. Perhaps the 42% in 2PP assigned to the LRP is close to the mark. That makes sense. Their support has evaporated. But the inverse is not necessarily 58% 2CP for Labor. The 2CP measure is really about 3-way contests. The LRP are fighting forces from within as well as from without.

    I also doubt the QLD measure put up by Morgan. If there’s going to be change in this country, it will arise in QLD too.

    Likewise, Essential has the LRP and Labor level-pegging on PV. This is absolutely implausible. Essential is really saying that nothing very remarkable is going on with voting intentions. This is a dubious result. It is likely to be an inaccurate estimate of sentiments and – moreover – fails to correlate with actual behaviours.

    In part – to the extent that the polls turn out to be inaccurate – I think it’s likely to because it’s difficult to use national polling to measure finely-calibrated effects – seat level effects – such as we’re seeing with the Lite in selected LRP strongholds.

    The polls are obscuring things imo. They’re not actually describing what’s occurring with voting intentions.

  44. a r

    It is still unclear what China and India’s intentions are.

    Although I don’t see China biting themselves on the backside to support Russia.

  45. Seems to me Kimberly Kitching was a loose cannon about to go off. She had already been dealing with the enemy by leaking extremely sensitive tactical information to the Liberals, and was clearly being duchessed by them.

    As the Labor Party is not a benevolent or a judicial organization, it has a right to expect it’s members to toe the party line, once that line has been decided, and to follow the directions of party officers. Kitching didn’t seem ready to do this to a sufficient extent.

    So her pre-selection became contingent. I’m surprised the Libs and the Media are acting all surprised and outraged over this. It’s Party Politics #101: when it finally comes down to having the numbers, there’s no appeal. No workplace trainer, HR consultant, or industrial commission is competent to overrule a party leader where it involves party matters.

    There was also no way Kitching was going to be elected as an independent Senator. So she needed to keep sweet with the Party leadership.

    Or change sides.

    Ha! Good luck with getting the Libs to elevate her above their own on the Liberal Senate ticket, or to drop her in to fill a casual vacancy. Kitching was only useful to them as a disgruntled Labor rat.

    As Gareth Evans summarized it: she made her own choices and let her ego fool her into believing she was more important than the Party.

    It’s a shame she died early, disgruntled and not happy with her lot, not having achieved what she saw as her own potential. But I’m sure plenty of us ordinary folk will shuffle off more or less the same way, without the front page headlines setting out our disappointment.

  46. In our little corner of Victoria a promised level crossing removal is gathering pace. Yes it is going to be 4 months of pain with only an old bridge to cross the railway line dividing the town.
    It is promised for Oct 2022 so it had better be ready or there will be a lot of annoyed locals.

  47. Though in this instance it’s shaping up to be “everybody vs. Russia”.

    I don’t think it’s at all clear what China would do. And when nuclear weapons are being used the outcomes will be grim regardless of who has lined up with whom.

  48. BB

    I’m surprised the Libs and the Media are acting all surprised and outraged over this.

    ____________________________________

    It would be surprising if they were actually surprised and outraged. There is no surprise that they are just acting surprised and outraged.

    Otherwise, well put.

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