Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls

Essential Research continues to show Labor with a modest lead relative to other pollsters, while Roy Morgan goes further than ever the other way.

Two new federal polls:

• The fortnightly Essential Research result has both major parties on 37% of the primary vote, with the Coalition up one and Labor up two, and Labor leading on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure by 48% (down one) to 44% (steady), with undecided at 7% at both measures. The Greens are down a point on the primary vote to 9%, One Nation are steady on 3%, the United Australia Party is down one to 2%, and others are steady on 4%.

Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and down one on disapproval to 48%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 43% and down three on disapproval to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-34 to 39-36. Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 is down one to 39%, with disapproval up one to 35%. These results can be found on the pollster’s website.

The Guardian also reports the poll finds the government marked down on the its response to the recent floods, which was rated good by only 26% and poor by 40%. The poll also finds 57% believe floods will be worse in the future without significant action on climate change; that 53% believe coal should be replaced with renewable energy; and that 45% believe the Morrison government contributed to the floods through failure to mitigate the risks of climate change. Full results from the poll’s attitudinal questions should be along later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1091.

• Roy Morgan has produced the most lopsided result in recent memory with its latest fortnightly federal poll, showing Labor leading 58-42, out from 56-44 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 31% (down two-and-a-half), Labor 37.5% (up half), Greens 12% (up half), One Nation 3% (steady) and the United Australia Party 1% (steady), with independents and others up one-and-a-half to 15.5%.

On the state two-party breakdowns, Labor leads 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales (out from 56.5-43.5, a swing of around 10%), 64-36 in Victoria (out from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 11.5%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of around 14.5%), 60.5-39.5 in South Australia (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 10%) and 60-40 from the particularly small sample in Tasmania (a swing of around 4%). However, the poll provides a further peculiarity in having the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, out from 52-48 last time, though this still amounts to a swing of around 4% to Labor compared with the last election.

The poll was conducted from a sample of 1418 last Monday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,643 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls”

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  1. ‘citizen says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 4:54 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 4:39 pm
    Did Morrison know about the disreputable nature of his mate when he tried to smuggle a pal into the White House?

    What I find interesting is that the Trump administration found Houston to be unacceptable, even by their own extremely low standards of propriety.’
    ====================================
    They HAD to accept Morrison cos he was a PM. They would have done due diligence on Morrison’s little mate and said to themselves, ‘What is in this for us?’
    To which the obvious response was, ‘Zip.’

  2. That is, unless the minister for immigration has discretionary powers to stop anyone they feel like stopping without having to give a reason.

    AFAIK the minister does indeed have these powers.

  4. J
    Thanks. I assume, then, that the immigration minister will deny visas to any New Zealanders who were in detention in Australia as refugees. That would be the job of the arch humanitarian, Minister Andrews.

  6. Ashasays:

    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 4:41 pm

    On current LC figures

    Labour and liberal both get 2 quotas.

    Then it is green with .64
    Labour with .60
    Liberals on .366
    One nation with .28

    Throw in a bunch of minor party vote exhausting and it a 3rd Labour and 1st green both being elected is a real possibility

  7. Grey is a difficult prospect for anyone who is not liberal these days. 8.5% margin and a high Phon vote as well. Almost impossible to campaign and ‘get to know the people’ along with the decline of importance and population of Whyalla and PortAugusta. Very rural on Yorke and Eyre peninsulas and wealthy high wage earners in Roxby Downs has meant that the seat held by the ALP as recent as 1993 is a demographic moving away from labor not towards

  8. On the ABC
    “A lion and a wolf have been evacuated from a zoo in Ukraine following a four-day rescue mission.

    Key points:
    The rescue mission involved crossing the towering Carpathian Mountains to reach Romania
    An animal rights group described the evacuation as a “team of people acting in good faith to do everything they could to rescue those animals”

    The rescue mission was made possible due to several animal rights groups and two British volunteers
    Simba the lion and the wolf named Akyla were completely awake during their journey due to the lack of tranquillisers available in war-torn Ukraine.

    The pair were delivered to their new home in Radauti in Romania this week after travelling from a zoo in Zaporizhzhia in south-east Ukraine.”

    A nice story, but brave souls who held the other end of those leads. :-O

  9. Regarding Houston, wasn’t it public domain information at the time that he was being unhelpful about police investigations of his father, when the White House declined to invite him? That would have been sufficient.

  10. I note that between 7 and 15 thousand Russian soldiers are believed to have been killed.

    Those who understand war as essentially a matter of grinding meat would know that the ‘best’ casualty to inflict is the one where the soldier is so badly wounded that he never recovers but not so badly that he dies. This soldier requires endless resources from immediate triage to carting back to the homeland to an endless life in rehab or a vet hospital.

    The above is one reason why I support Australia becoming neutral, generally staying out of war and also investing very heavily in defence equipment and training.

  12. Scary times. A cornered rat Putin is not a good situation.

    The risk of coup by Russia’s federal security service (FSB) against President Putin is growing every week that the war in Ukraine continues, a whistleblower at the heart of Russian intelligence has said.

    The whistleblower claims that chaos and discontent have engulfed the security services after Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine.

    Letters written by an anonymous Russian intelligence analyst to Vladimir Osechkin, an exiled Russian activist and founder of the human rights group Gulagu.net, have since been published online.

    Osechkin told The Times that the risk taken by intelligence agents in speaking out was a sign of their growing anger towards Putin and discontent from the effect that sanctions have had on FSB officers who will no longer be able to “go on holidays to their villas in Italy and take their kids to Disneyland Paris”.

    Speaking from his home in France, where he has lived in exile since 2015, Osechkin told the newspaper:

    For 20 years Putin created stability in Russia. FSB officers, policemen, state prosecutors — those people inside the system — were able to live good lives.
    But now that has all gone. They recognise that this war is a catastrophe for the economy, for humanity. They don’t want to go back to the Soviet Union.
    For every week and every month that this war continues, the possibility of a rebellion by those in the security services increases.”

    (guardian war blog)

  13. The White House wouldn’t have rejected Houston because of his religious activities, after all, Trump chose Paula White as his religious adviser. She is a mad as a cut snake.

  16. Jeepers BW. That is a huge difference between universities.

    Well done UNSW for being one of the big 8 but low down on that list. Still, 3.2% isn’t just a stat. That’s a lot of hurt and still a blight on the institution.

  19. Just saying, but ANU colleges are a bit sus, especially John XXIII. We had two sons go there, one was asked not to return the next year because he wasn’t involved enough in ‘college life’ i.e. drinking, rugby playing and general carousing.
    He went on to gain First Class Hons in his Science/Engineering double degree and later returned to get his MBBS after a dead end Cadetship with the APS.
    Needless to say they were’nt after academic performance.

  20. Warner out for another dashing 50.

    Reckon BK might be right about Warners days. With Usi holding up the top of the order, he might be surplus to requirements. Maybe Usi/Harris should be given a go?

    One days or 20/20’s, different story.

  21. It’s a bit hard to tell what’s going to happen with Xenophon. I am not sure exactly how he is going to be listed on the Senate ballot (whether it’s under a party ticket or in an independent grouping.) Nor do I know how high his popularity is nowadays. Also, the election is probably only about 7 weeks away (and subtract a fortnight for early voting), which means he needs to get his message out there ASAP.

    If he can get around 19% or above (the higher the better) the chance of his coattails bringing Griff along with him increase. It all depends on preferences and, under the current Senate preferencing system, there’s a lot of variables at play.

    Should both he and Griff get elected, then the Senate result will likely be similar to what the seat count is now for SA (just substitute Patrick for Xenophon) but should it be just Xenophon it’s hard to tell whether he’d be elected among the three “Liberal” spots or the three “Labor/Greens” spots. If the Government can’t improve its numbers by the election and is going down for a crushing defeat (or at least is going to perform badly in SA), I feel like it’s probably the “Liberal” spot that’s more threatened but it’s hard to tell. The Greens primary might take enough of a hit from the viable independent that people like throwing his hat in the race, so even if the “Labor/Greens” three are untouched, it might affect the Greens’ chance at getting elected to that third spot Labor (or some other group) getting elected there instead. All depends on primaries, of course.

    Personally, I think an outcome similar to 2007 (2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Green and 1 Xenophon) is very possible but, we will have to wait and see. So many different things can happen.

  23. Mavis, I’m more interested in the defence process re the VC – not so much the defo trial.

    Presumably those who vetted BRS ought to give evidence on his behalf? If they were prepared to give him the VC why aren’t they now prepared to give evidence as to his merits?

    Surely those people in defence aren’t hanging him out to dry?

  27. Itep at 12.47pm re Parramatta and Andrew Charlton…

    Why would Kevin Rudd supporting Charlton ring alarm bells? Rudd was only the PM who got the nation through the GFC with no recession, and Charlton was only his advisor.

    As the recent 500,000+ signature petition in support of an RC into Murdoch media showed, Rudd continues to enjoy a significant and positive public profile.

  29. laughtong at 12.52pm

    Based on his medication regime, it is clear Clive has turned into a horse, which could’ve seen him made Senator in ancient Rome.

    2022 Australian Senate? Not so much.

  31. Judge ‘dumbfounded’ over Friendlyjordies videos criticising Barilaro’s lawyers..

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/judge-dumbfounded-over-friendlyjordies-videos-criticising-barilaro-s-lawyers-20220324-p5a7jo.html

    Is it possible that Justice Rares has an overtly conservative view of the fragility of defence lawyers?
    I would have thought “intimidating defence lawyers ” without making a “threat” but merely satirising their actions a long long way short of intimation.

  32. Snappy Tom says:

    Based on his medication regime, it is clear Clive has turned into a horse, which could’ve seen him made Senator in ancient Rome.
    __________
    He was going to be appointed a Senator but Caligula was assassinated before the big day. The dignity of the Imperial Senate was saved.

  33. Late Tuesday afternoon, with no real debate, the Senate unanimously agreed to legislation that would make daylight saving time the permanent setting for U.S. clocks, ending the ritual of changing clocks in the fall and late winter.

    The proposal, pushed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) since 2018, had never been considered with a hearing in the Senate, let alone had a full legislative markup of the bill.

    Rubio’s Sunshine Protection Act had just 18 co-sponsors. The companion bill in the House, led by Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), has 41 co-sponsors and received a hearing last week before a consumer protection subcommittee.

    The Senate legislation passed so quickly that some senators had no idea that they had consented to let it get approved without a roll-call vote.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/17/senate-time/?utm_campaign=wp_lean_and_fit&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_lean&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3661302%2F623b366d3e6ed13ade36a115%2F597ee83eade4e26514d42080%2F11%2F67%2F623b366d3e6ed13ade36a115

    The one great thing about daylight saving in Australia is that it will eventually come to an end. I pity the Americans who have it permanently foisted upon them. If I had my choice I’d scrap daylight saving altogether.

    And whoever it was earlier who remarked on Sydney’s appalling summer, I concur. It’s been a tropical wet season rather than a summer.

  34. If Warner ever lost his spot and played the other forms though, I’m not sure it would be the end of his run. Oz is really lucky with its batting right now IMO.

    And bowling too. Cummins is world class. He’s a fantastic captain. I have no murdoch in my house, so I don’t have fox, but I went to the pub a month or so ago, and saw a piece on Cummins where he narrated it. All I could think was “ah. that’s why he’s captain”. Guy has a genuine presence. If it’s available to watch, I’d recommend it.

    Uzi is fine form. Average 115 over past five matches.

  35. People on twitter are getting confused with Antony Green tweet

    Sunday

    They think the federal election will called this Sunday , it wont because the Budget is on Tuesday

    May be the Sunday following Thursday night Budget reply by Anthony Albanese

    Is the day the federal election will be called

  36. Henry Hunt just made a 100 against N.S.W.
    Staunch character, fine player.
    ———————————
    Another NSWelshman.

    But if Hunt is the answer I must be confused about the question.

  37. Re Morrison lying about (WTTE) ‘not having attended Hillsong for 15 years’…

    If he’s confronted with the photographic evidence, he’ll probably say ‘We were just visiting for a specific occasion. We weren’t part of that church…’ or some such sideways-talk.

    Pass the pub test? Hmm…

  38. Julia Banks

    2019 – Morrison prayed at Hillsong conference with Jen, & Brian Houston on stage

    2020- Morrison finally admits he sought White House invitation for Brian Houston

    2022
    “I haven’t been to Hillsong for about 15 years” – Morrison

    #auspol https://t.co/80oPMsKMhv

  39. The 7 & 10 news bulletins (Sydney editions) seem to have lost interest in Kitching and Frydenberg pushing the budget goodies bribes, at least as headline stories.

    I’d have thought that Morrison would want these sorts of stories highlighted ahead of a Newspoll. Then again, Morrison would want to bury any mention of his relationship with Houston.

    Once again, Canberra has a short period of marginal seat status – in the sense of Seselja’s senate seat again looking marginal and prompting a pork barrel of promises for Seselja to announce. Not that the Liberals would have any intention of honouring those promises of course.

  40. re: jeordies. didn’t see it, legitimately would not ever be able to identify the man. Do understand that he showed some legitimately shady goings on recently. Youtube thing grates on my nerves. Nothing to do with him though.

    About the ridiculing solicitors issue: Judges do actually care in what light solicitors are portrayed in the media. They take very seriously the act of bringing the court into disrepute. In the eyes of the law, the system shouldn’t affect the application of justice. Making them the story would justifiably make them nervous. For better or for worse. Definitely conservative. Won’t find many people opposed to it though.

  42. Wat Tyler
    “ Personally, I think an outcome similar to 2007 (2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Green and 1 Xenophon) is very possible but, we will have to wait and see. So many different things can happen.”

    This is only a personal view but I am one SA voter who is probably now less likely to vote for Xenephon than before. He made capital of harvesting the former Dems votes at first, as a centrist alternative. But when he falsely blamed the wind turbines for the blackout in 2016, and a few other comments, I have come to view him as less progressive than I once saw him. I’d see him as to the right of most of the Teals.

    Running now just looks like opportunism, when the Lib vote is down. If he takes votes off the Libs I don’t mind, but obviously I am hoping he does not take votes off the Greens (less likely) or Labor (some risk).

  43. A Federal election called next Sunday could be held April 30, but but 7 would be more likely. If called the following Sunday, May 7 would be the earliest date.

  44. @AG was almost certainly referring to when the SA count has to end.

    The V hot tip around Canberra is 3 April for 14 May… but we shall see

  45. Zoe Daniel
    @zdaniel
    ·
    4m
    In which genuine refugees spend years in detention and then, a government under pressure FINALLY agrees to a deal that has been on the table for years, surprise, just before an election. So, detained for political reasons and released for political reasons. Pawns much? Vile.

    They call themselves Christians.

  47. ” And whoever it was earlier who remarked on Sydney’s appalling summer, I concur. It’s been a tropical wet season rather than a summer.”

    I think that was me. I can also blame the wet season for putting on weight. I can’t do my walks. It’s either raining, looks like it’s about to rain and on the rare occasion when it’s neither, walking tracks are quagmires.

    That’s my excuse anyway. I won’t go inside a gym while Covid is still around (although I didn’t go inside one in the prior 40-odd years either).

  48. Steve777 says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 6:52 pm
    7 would be more likely. If called the following Sunday, May 7 would be the earliest date.
    —————————-

    you are Close to the mark

  49. jt1983 says:
    Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 6:56 pm
    @AG was almost certainly referring to when the SA count has to end.

    The V hot tip around Canberra is 3 April for 14 May… but we shall see
    ——————————————-

    Whether its7th, 14th May

    Morrison and his cronies will be out of government

  50. If the PM went to the GG on 2 April, he can call an election for 7, 14 or 21 May.

    Personally I think he will call it for 14 May but it will be the end of the following week he actually does it (i.e. on or near the weekend that 9 April falls on).

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