The election eve Newspoll for South Australia is a little more moderate than the mid-week YouGov result for The Advertiser, but nonetheless suggests Labor is in a surely election-winning position with a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. This is from a GhostWhoVotes tweet, so more detail to follow. For further late-campaign news and analysis, see my previous post.
UPDATE: The front page of The Australian further reveals that Peter Malinauskas holds a 44-41 lead over Steven Marshall as preferred premier, and their respective approval ratings are 54% and 47%.
UPDATE 2: Full results now up at The Australian. The primary votes are Labor 41% (up two since the Newspoll three weeks ago), Liberal 38% (up one) and Greens 9% (down one) – the two-party result compares with 53-47 last time. Steven Marshall is down one on both approval and disapproval, to 47% and 46%, while Malinauskas is up three to 54% and down one to 30%. However, Malinauskas’s lead as preferred premier of 44-41 is narrower than his 46-39 lead last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.
Late mail:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Labor hopes to see a continuation of the dynamic that has been evident particularly in Melbourne, where well-heeled and well-educated electorates that have traditionally been safe for the Liberals move to the left, potentially to the extent of reeling in Davenport (8.2%), rated a possible gain by “multiple Labor sources”. Conversely, Paula Leuthen in King (0.8%) is “widely being seen as a potential saviour for the Marshall government due to her effective on-the-ground campaigning in Adelaide’s sprawling north-east”.
• Paul Starick of The Advertiser says the Liberals have all but written off Adelaide (0.8%) based on their tracking polling; that Paula Leuthen in King will be “hard to dislodge”; that #8220;both sides are confident about their prospects in Elder” (2.0%); that Davenport is “considered a prospective Labor gain by some on both sides”; and that Dunstan (8.1%) and Gibson (9.9%) are “dark horses”. However, concern among Liberals that independent Geoff Brock might dislodge Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan in Stuart has “abated”.
• With due regard to the fact that their error margins overlap, some methodological distinctions worth noting about the 56-44 YouGov poll and the 54-46 Newspoll, notwithstanding that they were conducted by the same agency. The YouGov poll was conducted earlier, from the Monday before last through to Sunday, whereas the Newspoll was in the field from last Friday through to Thursday. The Newspoll has a sample of 1012 compared with 835 for the YouGov, but both emerged with identical effective error margins of 3.5%. This accounts for the extent to which the data was weighted to match a population profile, which was more elaborate in the case of the Newspoll (accounting for age, gender, location, education and income) than the YouGov (age, gender, location and religious affiliation). It should be noted that I can tell you all this because YouGov fulfils the transparency standards of the Australian Polling Council, which has been established since the last election. Non-members include Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan. The methodological statements for the polls can be viewed here for the YouGov and here for the Newspoll.
Should be a very relaxing evening tomorrow night. It’s just whether Marshall concedes or waits for the postals.
SONG FOR THE LIBERAL OPPOSITION:
My love of life just gets stronger
As the days go by
And some things I wish they would last
Just a little bit long longer
As the days go by
And some things don’t look to me
Like they used to be, no
I get a little closer to
(As the days go by)
A little bit closer to you
(As the days go by)
I get a little closer
I’m coming back to you
Sure as the wind keeps on changing direction
I’ve come to understand, there’s no such a thing as perfection
And what went on before
Doesn’t matter anymore
I get a little closer to
(As the days go by)
a little bit closer to you
(As the days go by)
I get a little closer
I’m coming back to you
To you
To you
Cause things don’t look to me
Like they used to be
(As the days go by)
I get a little closer to
(As the days go by)
a little bit closer to you
(As the days go by)
I get a little closer to
(As the days go by)
A little bit closer to you
(As the days go by)
I get a little closer
I’m coming back to you
Mmmm mmm mmm mmm mmm
I cannot find any Newspoll SA results. Only that tweet. So it might be wrong.
HI TARAN,
YOU’RE NEW HERE?
Yeah? I mean I’ve commented in the past…
The ghost knows.
So does anybody think the Liberals can keep government tomorrow in SA? Nobody I know does.
I’m handing out HTV cards for most of tomorrow afternoon so I will enjoy watching tomorrow night’s count unless 2019 repeats itself. Best wishes to any other Adelaide bludgers working on booths tomorrow.
ShowsOn
I was thinking this song might be more appropriate for the Liberal MPs and staffers tomorrow and in 8 or 9 weeks time.
I close my eyes,
only for a moment, and the moment’s gone
My career dreams,
pass before my eyes, a curiosity
Dust in the wind,
all they are is dust in the wind.
Same old song,
just a drop of water in an endless sea
Our policy,
crumbles to the ground, though we refuse to see
Dust in the wind, all we are is dust in the wind
(Now) don’t hang on,
nothing lasts forever but the earth and sky
It slips away,
and all Rupert’s money won’t another minute buy.
Dust in the wind, all we are is dust in the wind
Dust in the wind, everything is dust in the wind.
Malinauskus leading as preferred Premier 54-47.
Primaries: ALP 41, LIB 38, GRN 10
These days, if the Ghost tweets a Newspoll result before there is an online article, its probably from the front page that gets circulated to The Australian subscribers sometime after 10:00 pm. No reason to doubt Ghost is wrong about this. With federal polls it rarely happens that Ghost is early because the first online articles go live on the site around 9:30 pm.
In years gone by Ghost sometimes used to tweet poll results quite early, but no one figured out how that was done, and it doesn’t seem to happen any more.
A lot of votes will be wasted in safe seats – by both major parties. Cui bono?
Toorak Toff
The Libs in SA are already a minority government. 54-46 is a 5% to 6% swing compared to last SA state election. Even with MOE that poll suggests a certain Liberal loss in SA.
MOFOS.
MALI AT THE RAH RIGHT NOW:
https://fb.watch/bQaZfxqW2f/
GOOD TO BE CLOSE BY IN CASE THE TICKER GIVES OUT (R.I.P. WARNIE).
AS BIG KEV USED TO SAY! I’M EXCITED!
(He later had a heart attack)
If the poll is somewhat accurate then it is hard to see Labor failing to get to 24 seats by winning the 4 seats at 2% or under margins. Then the question is will they win any more, and there has to be a good chance they will not.
So does anybody think the Liberals can keep government tomorrow in SA?
Yes I think they can, The Liberals have only been in for 1 term after about 16 years of Labor and people will think Labor are going to win anyway so they will say ill vote Liberal the same as the last federal election
Good luck to all those working booths for the election. Hopefully we have some sort of idea of the result this time tomorrow!
[Yes I think they can, The Liberals have only been in for 1 term ]
AND THEY’VE BEEN F’ING HOPELESS!
ShowsOn @ Friday, March 18, 2022 at 11:35 pm
A blast from the past!
Good test for the polling. If they got this completely wrong, we may have another 2019 on our hands federally.
54-46 is quite a lot isn’t it? It will be very interesting to see whether the polling is reflected in voting, to see if the failures of 2019 predictions play out again. Supposedly there have been changes to the methodology. With a 54% 2PP to the ALP, wouldn’t that be the largest winning 2PP that the ALP has posted since 2006? 2006 ALP got 57% 2PP. 54% 2PP puts it about the same as the 1977 election (53.4%).
If they have got that polling right, this will scare the bejesus out of the LNP with the looming federal election, surely. If it’s wrong, there are certainly going to be a lot of questions.
The polls predicting big wins for the ALP in Vic, Qld and WA were shown to be very accurate, or even underestimate the Labor vote. We remember the last Federal election, but forget about the string of accurate state polling.
https://apple.news/AuEF-LVs7THmbVIVEZx08vw
The M on SA’s electoral tides
This is great news for SA and all of Australia. As a Queenslander who suffered under the brutal Cando Newman LNP debacle I’m hoping that SAers will feel the same excitement and sense of relief that many Qlders felt the day after Newman was ignominiously booted into oblivion. I’m not suggesting Mr Marshall is as bad as the woeful Cando Newman but I know behind the scenes the Libs always do nasty stuff that hurts the average person and benefits those on the top shelf.
The Saturday Advertiser headline: Liberal and Labor strategists tip close result.
“Senior Labor and Liberal insiders are forecasting a tighter-than-expected result in Saturday’s election,
with crossbenchers expected to be key in deciding the next government”.
The ‘shock’ poll which put Labor ahead 54-46 in the latest poll that ran to Thursday this week.
Latest figures show more than 200,000 people have cast pre-poll ballots, 11,500 have requested Covid-19 pick-up voter packs and more than 162,000 have lodged applications for postal votes – the remainder will cast their ballot by 6pm on Saturday.
What The Advertiser’s political experts predictions {except for Abraham] reflect a clear distrust in the pollsters results.
MATTHEW ABRAHAM: Labor 26, Liberals 18, Independents 3
KATHRYN BERMINGHAM: Labor 23, Liberals 21, Independents 3
DAVID PENBERTHY : Labor 23, Liberals 19, Independents 5
MICHAEL McGUIRE: Labor 23, Liberals 21, Independents 3
PAUL STARICK: Liberals 22, Labor 22, Independents 3
ELIZABETH HENSON: Liberals 22, Labor 22, Independents 3
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/sa-election-2022-liberal-and-labor-strategists-tip-close-result/news-story/26bbe08e3068f1da3f43d2c3703fd39b
This election be a good litmus test for the efficacy of Pollsters, especially the Newspoll team.
It wouldn’t be the end of the world if the centrist RINO (LINO?) Marshall government loses the state election today.
It would certainly save the seat of Sturt, and likely Boothby, from changing hands at the federal election. Possibly it just might save the nation from going to the dogs for three years.
As a SA Senator will Wong be working any of the booths ?
Has to be worth a few votes to the Libs after her shocking week.
5% c. 100 of the voters (from 2018 numbers) were lined up at 8 am at the polling booth in Light that I helped set up. Most of early crowd actually taking HTV but that will no doubt drop off later. And pretty good Covid avoiding behaviour.
Not sure why New Daily would be saying something about first post Covid test – numbers in SA are at highest levels of the last 2 years. About 16000 people already applied for getting voting papers at Covid test places because they are isolating.
The numbers of people out at sparrow fart lining up to vote is generally indicative of a baseball bat election.
Certainly on the booth I am on (in Newland), a LOT of people are taking only Labor How-To-Vote cards, or none at all.
The usual contingent of polite, “take them all” voters seems to be significantly down on other years, but it may change as the day wears on.
”
Poor Cameronsays:
Friday, March 18, 2022 at 11:16 pm
So does anybody think the Liberals can keep government tomorrow in SA?
Yes I think they can, The Liberals have only been in for 1 term after about 16 years of Labor and people will think Labor are going to win anyway so they will say ill vote Liberal the same as the last federal election
”
WB posted:
John Ferguson of The Australian reports Labor hopes to see a continuation of the dynamic that has been evident particularly in Melbourne, where well-heeled and well-educated electorates that have traditionally been safe for the Liberals move to the left,
What a schmozzle. No coffee at the school booth at 830. And only starting to set up the bbq.
Not happy jan. I will have to have words with the governing council.
Taylormade says:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 8:53 am
As a SA Senator will Wong be working any of the booths ?
Has to be worth a few votes to the Libs after her shocking week.
————————
How do you know it was a shocking week , might actually get Labor sympathy votes after all the personal smear
Some impressive pro-Liberal media spin this morning to try to save their boy, Steve Marshall.
To me the obvious questions are:
1. Is “no major scandals” a good enough reason to re-elect a government?
2. What about all the “minor” scandals? Rorting MPs, sacked MPs, charged MPs?
3. What about opening up to covid too early?
4. What about nation “leading” unemployment?
5. What about underfunded health, and people dying before ambulances arrive?
6. What about a cancelled sub deal costing SA $4 billion in promised federal funding and 3000 jobs?
When the ‘tiser fully reports on those, I might bother reading it. I look forward to seeing how they report on governments past and present tomorrow morning.
I have only bet $4500 on this election (so nowhere near the amount I had on the WA election). Basically penny vacuuming (going for low return bets with very high chances of return). Planning on laying a lot on the federal election.
I am a person who tends toward the “be polite to everyone” as a general philosophy……but I cant make that stretch to those people who are willing to give out HTV cards for Liberals and other RWNJ parties. I mean, if you have thought about the body politic….the way we are governed, the human condition, political corruption, sheer incompetance and still come to this conclusion, then I wont take your card, and I wont be civil to you and all your expensive suits and fresh young liberal faces only exascerbate this hostility I feel for them. I wont help them feel good about their life decisions and never have….never taken a lib HTV card whether we were likely to win or not.
If I’m on booth duty I stay as far from them as possible…
The queue hasn’t reduced yet – 9am. Motto for today seems to be vote later, vote quicker.
And a useful hint for booth HTV people – any infirm or very elderly voters – electoral people are happy for them to go to head of queue rather than have a long wait in line.
Beaglie Boy
I share your views on the far right these days (and they are very far right). However a surprising number of Liberal and small splinter party booth workers are paid to do it.
I’ll also be on a booth in Adelaide today for more than half the day, but I always try to be civil to everyone at the booths, even the UAP and PHON loons. You just give progressive politics a bad name if you appear uncivil to the other side, and you won’t change their minds. Be better than them.
Taylormade @ #25 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 8:23 am
I don’t know if she is or not. If she is, I doubt it will affect anyone’s decision one way or another.
Interesting the questions when getting your papers. ‘Do you have your easy to vote card sent to you by mail?’ – no. ‘Can I see id?’.
I am sure (hope) they would have accepted “no”. But I hadn’t had my coffee and wasn’t in the mood for a stoush. It does feel however the ECs are buttering us up for tighter restrictions on voting.
If Newspoll is even vaguely correct, Labor will pick up Adelaide, King & Newland, and then all of Dunstan, Hartley and Colton come into play. If the statewide swing is broadly even but with more exaggerated swings in certain seats, then Labor’s past electoral performance in almost every election since 1968 indicates that they will gain at least two of those three – probably Dunstan and Hartley. Remember, in 2006 Labor took Morialta – usually true-blue territory – on a little over 56% of the 2PP. Labor getting a result closer to 55% of 2PP probably results in Black, Davenport and Gibson (and Morialta) becoming much closer than expected. I think the evening will end with a clear sense of who will form South Australia’s next government.
Last night (Friday 18 March) the SA Joint Counter Terrorism Team arrested a 15-year-old male from South Plympton for possession of information for terrorist acts, extremist material and taking part in the manufacture of explosives.
There is no threat to the community and police are not seeking any other person in connection with the charges.
The male was refused bail.
Most marginal Liberal seats:
Newland Richard Harvey LIB 0.1%
King Paula Luethen LIB 0.6%
Adelaide Rachel Sanderson LIB 1.0%
Elder Carolyn Power LIB 1.9%
Florey will return to the ALP as Bedford is contesting Newland.
If the ALP hold their current seats and win these 4 seats + Florey then they will have 25 seats and Government.
Wong is an electoral asset. I hope she is out and about.
The Mean Girls meme isnt registering with most voters except those who would vote Liberal anyway and the more politically engaged. Those engaged people will note a big difference between internal factional and tactical contests by strong women and men of agency and the sh-t show run by the ‘horrible horrible’ ‘complete psycho’ Morrison.
If the inference is that Kitchings death was somehow caused by internal ALP tensions then these Murdoch orcs need to say so and let the coroner have their investigations and act on any findings. Otherwise, let the family bury their loved one and then look at installing or improving ALP HR complaints systems and resolutions.
Only worried about ‘King’ from that list above….happens to be the one I live in….
If the statewide swing to Labor is in the region of the newspoll, even the sophomore surge plus some good local camapaigning is unlikely be enough to save the Liberal member in King.
Yeah, I agree Simon, although it is not just Murdoch. I have continually heard a very high profile local ABC commentator ponder on the similarities between the death of Kimberley Kitching and the death of the victim of the alleged historical rape.
Comparing an alleged rape to someone who was spoken nastily too in a robust policy discussion is preposterous, but it is exactly what the Morrison Government want them to do in order to make some bizarre point about double standards.
I’d expect nothing less from the Murdoch press, and to be truthful these days I wouldn’t expect anything less from the ABC either. It is a very sad indictment of where they are at.
I’m not living in SA at the moment, but I’m curious about why King seems to be regarded as a line ball contest. Labor seems to have a good local candidate (Rhiannon Pearce) who has been on the ground and campaigning for 18 months. Is there a local factor that might lead the voters of King to buck an otherwise pro Labor swing state wide?
If the ALP win, who will b the next Lib leader? Please not Spiers. Fingernails into steering wheel voice.
use the main thread for Mean girls talk….came to the SA thread to get away from it
I recall that losing King came as quite a shock to SA Labor, and in part was attributed to the effect of Frances Bedford’s campaigning on Modbury Hospital issues and its spillover to the Golden Grove part of the seat. That effect would not be present this time round, surely?
Especially interested to hear from Beaglieboy!!