The election eve Newspoll for South Australia is a little more moderate than the mid-week YouGov result for The Advertiser, but nonetheless suggests Labor is in a surely election-winning position with a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. This is from a GhostWhoVotes tweet, so more detail to follow. For further late-campaign news and analysis, see my previous post.
UPDATE: The front page of The Australian further reveals that Peter Malinauskas holds a 44-41 lead over Steven Marshall as preferred premier, and their respective approval ratings are 54% and 47%.
UPDATE 2: Full results now up at The Australian. The primary votes are Labor 41% (up two since the Newspoll three weeks ago), Liberal 38% (up one) and Greens 9% (down one) – the two-party result compares with 53-47 last time. Steven Marshall is down one on both approval and disapproval, to 47% and 46%, while Malinauskas is up three to 54% and down one to 30%. However, Malinauskas’s lead as preferred premier of 44-41 is narrower than his 46-39 lead last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.
Late mail:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Labor hopes to see a continuation of the dynamic that has been evident particularly in Melbourne, where well-heeled and well-educated electorates that have traditionally been safe for the Liberals move to the left, potentially to the extent of reeling in Davenport (8.2%), rated a possible gain by “multiple Labor sources”. Conversely, Paula Leuthen in King (0.8%) is “widely being seen as a potential saviour for the Marshall government due to her effective on-the-ground campaigning in Adelaide’s sprawling north-east”.
• Paul Starick of The Advertiser says the Liberals have all but written off Adelaide (0.8%) based on their tracking polling; that Paula Leuthen in King will be “hard to dislodge”; that #8220;both sides are confident about their prospects in Elder” (2.0%); that Davenport is “considered a prospective Labor gain by some on both sides”; and that Dunstan (8.1%) and Gibson (9.9%) are “dark horses”. However, concern among Liberals that independent Geoff Brock might dislodge Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan in Stuart has “abated”.
• With due regard to the fact that their error margins overlap, some methodological distinctions worth noting about the 56-44 YouGov poll and the 54-46 Newspoll, notwithstanding that they were conducted by the same agency. The YouGov poll was conducted earlier, from the Monday before last through to Sunday, whereas the Newspoll was in the field from last Friday through to Thursday. The Newspoll has a sample of 1012 compared with 835 for the YouGov, but both emerged with identical effective error margins of 3.5%. This accounts for the extent to which the data was weighted to match a population profile, which was more elaborate in the case of the Newspoll (accounting for age, gender, location, education and income) than the YouGov (age, gender, location and religious affiliation). It should be noted that I can tell you all this because YouGov fulfils the transparency standards of the Australian Polling Council, which has been established since the last election. Non-members include Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan. The methodological statements for the polls can be viewed here for the YouGov and here for the Newspoll.
While I won’t relax until Labor has clearly won, and while I do understand the reasons given for talk of Labor falling short of a majority in spite of the polls, I think what will actually happen is that Labor could achieve a larger swing in metro Adelaide, but not so much in the country. A feature of South Australian elections has been the Liberals clocking up huge majorities in the country, which has been of little use to them in terms of seats. I think this election will be similar in that respect, especially when you consider that the main reasons that the government is in trouble are metro driven issues; COVID spread, the opening of the border which hurt so many over the Christmas period, and ambulance ramping in metropolitan hospitals. This is why I don’t think we will see a scenario where the Liberals will be able to hold metropolitan marginals against a general swing. For this reason, the only way I see the Liberals hanging on, or even a hung parliament, is a poll miss, something which of course can’t be dismissed.
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The Toorak Toffsays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 2:57 pm
A long queue all day at Kensington Park in Dunstan. Lots of out-of-shape businessman types and their wives and children who scorn the Labor how-to-votes.
”
And?
Did they ask for HTV of Labor or did they ask for Lib HTV?
BK will be out on booth duty. Probably complaining about the lack of a fundraising table of goodies.
Haven’t paid attention to SA politics since moving out of the state. I’m somewhat surprised to see Labor in with a real chance – this was the Libs first term in a long time, and I figured they’d need to be egregiously bad to not get a second one, and to my knowledge they’d been a pretty boring but inoffensive government. What are the main factors at play?
Bonza….in short it was two issues. Infighting to the extent that they made themselves into a minority Government with Libs going to the crossbenches.
Secondly, their Covid managment. They had earned grudging approval even from me for their following medical rather than Morrison advice….That commonsense ended when they opened the state just as Omicron became a known thing.
a self inflicted 1 term government should it come to pass
Q: To my knowledge they’d been a pretty boring but inoffensive government
Well that would depend on your definition of inoffensive. If after 16 years of opposition 3 of your members are caught with their hand in the cookie jar and have to resign, and your Deputy Premier standing down for conflict-of-interest actions (she was specifically warned about)…….I find that pretty offensive.
The boring part I suppose could be summed up by do-nothing. And that is hardly worth rewarding with a second term either.
Ven, they are rusted-on Liberal voters.
I have been wrong many times before but, for what it is worth, my prediction – based on the polls that I hope have adjusted their methods since the disappointment of 2019), anecdotal evidence from my own social circle and news of those of others) and my own experience at my local polling station this morning – is that a strong swing to Labor will be evident by 7:30 pm tonight and (despite the large postal and early vote) Anthony Green will call it for Labor by 9pm.
It will be mildly interesting to see how the looney-tune far right candidates poll, some kind of indicator on how they might go in the federal election.
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The Toorak Toffsays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 2:57 pm
A long queue all day at Kensington Park in Dunstan. Lots of out-of-shape businessman types and their wives and children who scorn the Labor how-to-votes.
”
TTT
So what you are implying is that Marshall will win his seat. Aren’t you?
For me Election day is a festival day, where we celebrate Democracy. The voters have chance to pass judgement on their leaders (in other words, voters are offering their prayers to goddess of democracy).
Whether the goddess blesses you or not is a different matter.
I know, I know Yabba and a lot atheists on PB will be on me like a rash and I don’t give Rat’s backside what their opinion is. 🙂
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BeaglieBoysays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 3:48 pm
We have been called ‘Puritans’ on the other thread, lol…..
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Indeed!
“Bonza….in short it was two issues. Infighting to the extent that they made themselves into a minority Government with Libs going to the crossbenches.
Secondly, their Covid managment. They had earned grudging approval even from me for their following medical rather than Morrison advice….That commonsense ended when they opened the state just as Omicron became a known thing.”
As a mere Trog Cave Dweller i was surprised to hear that the Libs in SA were likely in for such a close election. But, discussion i have seen elsewhere is that the above is pretty much why. Me…hope the Libs get smashed worse than expected. 🙂
For the Legislative Council, Labor recommends a preference flow only to the Greens and Animal Welfare.
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The Toorak Toffsays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 4:35 pm
For the Legislative Council, Labor recommends a preference flow only to the Greens and Animal Welfare.
”
Uhh ahh!
The Kensington Park booth is just around the corner from Don Bradman’s old house. It’s the bluest part of Dunstan! It’s not representative of the whole electorate. There are other parts of Dunstan that are strong for Labor.
I would say Marshall is favoured to win Dunstan, but Labor has a good chance of pulling off a surprise. Notwithstanding the wishes of the good folk of Kensington Park.
Outsider……. its not called “Dunstan” for nothing. The late great DD was a common sight on The Parade
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BeaglieBoysays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 4:44 pm
Outsider……. its not called “Dunstan” for nothing. The late great DD was a common sight on The Parade
”
The irony is that it is a seat held by Liberal Premier.
Cronus @ #94 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 12:56 pm
His mum and dad being who they were he couldn’t of turned out any other way. My father had a run in with Kevin Newman many moons ago.
On the old Norwood boundaries, it would still be a Labor seat (historically it was a very safe Labor seat). But the boundaries have been pushed by redistributions into some very wealthy eastern suburbs,and Norwood itself has become very gentrified. The demographic is nothing like how it was when DD reigned supreme.
We all knew this but just in case…
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1255251.shtml
Bonza
“a pretty boring but inoffensive government.” Interestingly I think this describes the QLD ALP government quite well and it has worked a treat for them so I too wonder about the differences in the SA election.
There was a comment on here earlier about how nice the weather is in Adelaide today. It’s lovely but I tell you if you’re out in it for too long (like I was just before), it starts to bite.
I hope all the people stationed at the polling booths today (whether ECSA staff, HTV people or anyone working the sausage sizzle have been hydrating, using sun protection and staying in the shade as much as possible.
Instead of speculating on the result…..
Will WB be wearing a tie tonight on Ch9? Paisley shirt? Sharp suit?
One of the reasons why Don Dunstan was so popular in Norwood was he never lost sight of the fact that was his seat and the community he represents. Even when he was rising the ranks to become a powerful figure and, ultimately, leader in the ALP, he never forgot to still be the MP for Norwood, attending community events and connecting with the various immigrant communities in the district.
Yes, he wore out several pairs of shoes door knocking while challenging the sitting Liberal, the popular Alby Moir. That was novel in those days.
SK – earlier in the thread, WB said he will not be appearing on camera, but will be in the Ch9 back room somewhere. He will probably be wearing shorts, an old TShirt and a pair of thongs. Better to speculate about what’s on the TShirt!
Cressida O’Hanlon has carried on the Dunstan tradition admirably. It will be a shame if she is not rewarded.
Sky Blue with a coloured trim on the collar. Some random stencil style motif.
I was thinking WB might be more of a Joy Division, Unknown Pleasures, classic white on black kind of guy
New thread.
And I’m wearing an unadorned cream/bone/off-white/ivory/beige t-shirt.
Excited for tonight, the covid “open up” stuff up and the scandal riddled government should be punished. It may not be 100% certain tonight, but the pre-polls etc will be very similar to election day voting. I pre-polled yesterday due to working today as a half of my staff are either covid positive or “close contacts”
During the Playford years it seems like SA Labor leaders took special care to keep their local seats happy. From what I can gather, Mick O’Halloran (leader from 1949-1960) was the MP for Frome, and it seems that he had such a strong base there that nobody challenged him until 1956 and 1959 when it got a bit close, but he held on.
I know the producer of ch9 news Adelaide. Surely we can get a shot of William hard at work.
Bert
“His mum and dad being who they were he couldn’t of turned out any other way. My father had a run in with Kevin Newman many moons ago.”
I agree entirely, and a real born-to-rule mentality to boot. Campbell went from bad to obnoxious in very short time.
I was too sick today to help at the polling booth and to scrutineer. I am happy to see Anthony Green saying it looks as though it will be a Labor win.
Chanel 9 TV news leading with Penny Wong being interviewed by Toolman after 8am.
Dogs with a bone.