The election eve Newspoll for South Australia is a little more moderate than the mid-week YouGov result for The Advertiser, but nonetheless suggests Labor is in a surely election-winning position with a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. This is from a GhostWhoVotes tweet, so more detail to follow. For further late-campaign news and analysis, see my previous post.
UPDATE: The front page of The Australian further reveals that Peter Malinauskas holds a 44-41 lead over Steven Marshall as preferred premier, and their respective approval ratings are 54% and 47%.
UPDATE 2: Full results now up at The Australian. The primary votes are Labor 41% (up two since the Newspoll three weeks ago), Liberal 38% (up one) and Greens 9% (down one) – the two-party result compares with 53-47 last time. Steven Marshall is down one on both approval and disapproval, to 47% and 46%, while Malinauskas is up three to 54% and down one to 30%. However, Malinauskas’s lead as preferred premier of 44-41 is narrower than his 46-39 lead last time. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.
Late mail:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Labor hopes to see a continuation of the dynamic that has been evident particularly in Melbourne, where well-heeled and well-educated electorates that have traditionally been safe for the Liberals move to the left, potentially to the extent of reeling in Davenport (8.2%), rated a possible gain by “multiple Labor sources”. Conversely, Paula Leuthen in King (0.8%) is “widely being seen as a potential saviour for the Marshall government due to her effective on-the-ground campaigning in Adelaide’s sprawling north-east”.
• Paul Starick of The Advertiser says the Liberals have all but written off Adelaide (0.8%) based on their tracking polling; that Paula Leuthen in King will be “hard to dislodge”; that #8220;both sides are confident about their prospects in Elder” (2.0%); that Davenport is “considered a prospective Labor gain by some on both sides”; and that Dunstan (8.1%) and Gibson (9.9%) are “dark horses”. However, concern among Liberals that independent Geoff Brock might dislodge Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan in Stuart has “abated”.
• With due regard to the fact that their error margins overlap, some methodological distinctions worth noting about the 56-44 YouGov poll and the 54-46 Newspoll, notwithstanding that they were conducted by the same agency. The YouGov poll was conducted earlier, from the Monday before last through to Sunday, whereas the Newspoll was in the field from last Friday through to Thursday. The Newspoll has a sample of 1012 compared with 835 for the YouGov, but both emerged with identical effective error margins of 3.5%. This accounts for the extent to which the data was weighted to match a population profile, which was more elaborate in the case of the Newspoll (accounting for age, gender, location, education and income) than the YouGov (age, gender, location and religious affiliation). It should be noted that I can tell you all this because YouGov fulfils the transparency standards of the Australian Polling Council, which has been established since the last election. Non-members include Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan. The methodological statements for the polls can be viewed here for the YouGov and here for the Newspoll.
Welcome William. Hope you are able to stay a few days and enjoy yourself. Probably best to avoid some of the more up market tourist spots – might be trauma on display.
Is there a way to link to your coverage on mobile phone for people scrutineering?
Libs all bad always paying their workers.
ALP all good never paying their workers.
This place never disappoints – denial is not a river in Egypt!
Yes WB, we have been very fortunate with the weather here this summer….Not scortching hot like Perth, not under 30 mters of water like the East Coast….Baby Bear weather….just right.
Spence
There were at least 24 deaths and probably 45,000 new Covid cases yesterday. We definitely aren’t in the post-Covid world and I’m told it’s a minimum of two months away as a best case scenario.
SA has 21000 active cases and about 60,000 in quarantine. I’m not sure all will vote esp the ones feeling sick with Covid. And then there’s the 1000 people in hospital that SA Health and the Electoral Commission say can’t vote (unless they got postal votes earlier).
Don’t know how pollsters make allowance for all that.
Oh dear, Moderate…
The ‘bad’ thing about paying booth workers is it means a party (like the Libs) doesn’t have enough inspired volunteers to do the work.
Interestingly, the Libs website claims 80000 members nationally; Wikipedia estimates 50-60000; Wikipedia also records a figure of 60085 for the ALP.
Yet, Labor is able to staff booths voluntarily.
Do the Libs really have a similar membership size to Labor?
Snappy Tom….you cant expect the Liberal Luvvies to go out and mix with the plebs. They have not done a days work in their lives and they certainly are not going to start now
My completely unscientific view is that Labor members are generally younger and more activist than Liberal members. Total membership numbers of the 2 parties might be the same, but Labor members are more likely to roll up their sleeves and get involved in campaigning.
To be clear, I won’t be on air this evening, nor will I be able to publish results on this site. All you’ll get from me is such live commentary on the blog as I’ll be able to post in idle moments, of which I’m not sure how many there will be (could be a lot, could be very few). But the swing calculations on non-ABC television outlets will be based on the historic booth data I developed.
WB – if you’re based at the Channel 9 studio in Pirie Street, you can sneak out and have a couple of beers over at the Exeter in Rundle Street East, and watch the world go by. They also have a great wine list.
I will be, and I’ll keep that in mind.
Good to have you in Adelaide William, hope the state treats you well.
I am expecting a narrow Labor win, but they might just get to the bare minimum 24 to form majority government.
I think the Liberal Party post the election will be better with Marshall in it than without him in it so I hope he keeps his seat. The Liberal Party is a mess and it will be even more of a mess after losing the election. Vickie Chapman will certainly be eyeing off the leadership but fortunately I don’t think she has any chance of getting it. Even the Liberal Party would not be that stupid.
Is it my imagination, or do the South Aussie contingent on Pollbludger make a disproportionately large part of Bludgershere?…there seem to be quite a few of us
Thank god for this thread and this election to consume my focus today. The main thread is so toxic and unreadable right now. The media beat-up is one thing but the toxic overreaction that the hard partisans do every time makes it so much worse.
WT….yes, I am a refugee on here as well
Will the ch 9 coverage be available interstate for political tragics? Perhaps via stream?
Moderate, the payment of polling representatives is demonstrating that the LNP isn’t an organization based upon voter support, but one based upon only financial support. It’s hard to find a better reflection of the problems that people have with the LNP than that. The people supporting the LNP are the lobbyists and the people they pay, as reflected in their governance outcomes.
I have rarely posted on the main thread in recent years, but really enjoy participating in all the election related threads. It’s much more like the original Poll Bludger, which started off as a real pseph blog. The old Possum blog was also fantastic – it was a bit leftish, but economics based, and without the kind of abusive tone that affects the main PB blog most of the time these days (of course I may well have a rose tinted view of the past!!!)
John Cee – 9Now says its coverage is available for live streaming nationally. I’m counting on it, especially now I am aware that its coverage incorporates WB’s booth by booth analysis.
Scott
Obviously if Marshall loses his seat, he doesn’t have a decision to make but if he wins his seat but loses government, there will be a by-election in Dunstan that the Libs would lose. Might make it a lot easier if they are a minority government or even a narrow majority.
I am seeing a lot of rhetoric online implying that we’ll have a clear result and a Premier-Elect known tonight and I just need to throw that reminder out there that there are a record number of pre-poll votes that were cast and they will not be counted until next week. It’s possible the picture will be clear enough tonight but it’s also very possible that, even if it’s going to be a comfortable win for one side or another, we won’t know until next week.
What percentage of voters voted early….anyone know?. Even if it is 50% we normally have a very clear picture at that stage of the count as to who is heading for victory
I’d also point out that if Newspoll is pinpoint accurate (granted it will have been rounded one way or another) and the swing is perfectly uniform, Labor will land one seat short of a majority and face what seems likely to be an entirely conservative cross bench. And even that assumes none of the Liberals in the four most marginal seats holds out against the tide, as several Labor members were able to do in similar circumstances in 2010 and 2014.
29.9% of enrolled voters have either applied for a postal vote or cast a pre-poll vote.
https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-sa-election-pre-poll-and-postal-voting-rates/
WB….I have been less sanguine than most on this election than others on here. My own seat of King maybe being the stumbling block. With so few true marginals in SA elections it is easier to sandbag than the bigger states.
Thanks for the link Cronus. As I have never been involved in a political party I find the whole factional thing (in all parties) off putting. It has been explained to me that the battles are necessary and useful and can be conducive to good outcomes but… well… I don’t find it very compatible to representative democracy. The idea of a party whip tells you the culture isn’t one of fluffy ducks.
And yes, now I am posting on the wrong thread.
WB
Then there would be enormous pressure on Marshall not to quit.
BB
330,000 between prepolls and postals. We have about 1.2M voters.
WB. Makes $5.50 worth a punt.
Will we see Peter M in a probable victory speech say ” I thank the South Australians, who never voted in their lives Labor, voting Labor?
I rarely disagree with you WB, but I think that depends on how you view the Newland contest. Labor will pick up Florey (Bedford’s old seat) and the Newspoll swing will deliver Adelaide, King and Elder. The 24th seat Labor needs for a majority is Newland – the most marginal Liberal seat. The uniform Newspoll swing will deliver it to either Bedford or Savvas (Labor), with the difference being whether Labor forms government with Bedford’s support, or in its own right. Bedford was from Labor’s Left and still has connections with some of the Left unions, and it’s inconceivable she would support a Liberal government.
A long queue all day at Kensington Park in Dunstan. Lots of out-of-shape businessman types and their wives and children who scorn the Labor how-to-votes.
Don’t know what a conservative cross bench will do… but Mr Brock will have better than a 50 /50 chance to win and he has supported a Labor govt in minority before. RE Marshall… I think he is unlikely to lose his seat .. if he did it would be part of an uneven swing and will save the voters of Dunstan a by election
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William Bowesays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 12:30 pm
I should encourage PB-ers to at least keep an eye on the coverage of Nine (or indeed anyone but the ABC) if they want to admire the fruits of my database work.
”
WB
We will follow your election coverage here and hope you calling Labor victory early, say by 9:30 pm SA time. 🙂
If the turnout rate is the same as last time, there will be around 1,150,000 votes. There have been 170,081 postal vote applications — if the return rate is the same as last time, there will be around 120,000 of these. There have been 208,136 pre-polls. That leaves around 820,000 election day votes, of which around 85,000 should be absents. That leaves 64% of all votes cast available to be counted tonight, which is higher than some of the earlier estimates – I don’t think pre-polling increased in the final week as much as last time. However, ECSA are apparently pretty strict about ending counting at 11pm, so I’d suggest some of that 64% will remain unreported at the end of tonight.
You’re right, Outsider – I wasn’t giving Florey to Labor. So yeah, one of the four marginal Liberals really will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat.
Do they have Covid marshalls at the electoral booths or has ECSA taken over that role?
If a political party needs to pay outside people to handout htv and maybe scrutineer. Then the question arises as to how many members they have and how many “stacks” that is people who are recruited and remain for internal factional reasons only.
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Bellwethersays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 12:34 pm
Death to Tory scum! Well, at least an eternity spent on the opposition benches.
”
WTH, WTBH!?
well we have at least 1 extra vote in King….my daughter who became of voting age since the last election….was advised (only half jokingly) with homlessness unless she did the right thing. She didnt really need my influence in reality….she is an Aged Care worker and knows how shit the Libs have been.
Booooo. There goes my fiver.
I dont think he is better than 50-50 of winning the seat and no certainty he will back the ALP (although if the ALP have a 2PP of 54 or even 53 and largest party you would think he would).
Cregan will be interesting. What would Marshall offer him in post election negotiations? The ALP have the promises on the board.
Dio, I saw “Hygiene Officers”.
I still think the Liberals are worth a flutter at $5.50, though probably not a very big one.
Odds too good to ignore on a 2 horse race.
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Outsidersays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 12:44 pm
Details of the evidently far superior Channel 9 coverage. Download 9Now and watch it live! It’s the other big contest tonight: Bowe v Green….
“Presenters Kate Collins and Brenton Ragless will be joined in the studio by Nine Political Editor Chris Uhlmann and 9News State Political Reporter Harvey Biggs.
9News Correspondent Ben Avery will be alongside them to break down the key results and trends, along with outgoing Liberal Treasurer Rob Lucas and former Federal Labor Minister Kate Ellis.
Adelaide’s team of reporters will also be covering the key seats right across South Australia that will decide the result.
You can livestream the special coverage throughout the country on 9Now and follow results and our liveblog at 9news.com.au.”
”
With Mad Monk amongst their ranks you dampened my enthusiasm to watch Costello’s 9Fairfax coverage.
In a twisted way, it would be amusing if Labor clearly “win” the 2PP vote but the Liberals manage to retain government, after the several times Labor has previously won while losing the 2PP vote.
I just hope, in the event that happens, partisans remember their reactions to the 2014 election results before giving their two cents on it.
If it does happen, I suggest some of the blame will lie with a set of electoral boundaries crafted to produce a retrospective fair result for the very specific circumstances of 2014.
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Moderatesays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 1:27 pm
Libs all bad always paying their workers.
ALP all good never paying their workers.
This place never disappoints – denial is not a river in Egypt!
”
Welcome Moderate.
Missed you comments for Super Saturday NSW by-elections when were in hiding for nothing. 🙂
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Snappy Tomsays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 1:35 pm
Oh dear, Moderate…
The ‘bad’ thing about paying booth workers is it means a party (like the Libs) doesn’t have enough inspired volunteers to do the work.
”
SnappyTom
Whether Libs have”inspired volunteers to do the work ” or not I don’t know. But they seem to have”inspired ” voters at Federal level. We wil know shortly whether voters are as “inspired ” or not in this SA State election
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Wat Tylersays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 2:16 pm
Thank god for this thread and this election to consume my focus today. The main thread is so toxic and unreadable right now. The media beat-up is one thing but the toxic overreaction that the hard partisans do every time makes it so much worse.
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I didn’t read one comment on main thread today although I quickly posted one cricket comment and got out with out reading any other comment. From your post it appears that is the reason I am keeping my sanity now. 🙂
I am bit worried about BK because I did not see him post once on this thread.
We have been called ‘Puritans’ on the other thread, lol…..
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William Bowesays:
Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 2:47 pm
I’d also point out that if Newspoll is pinpoint accurate (granted it will have been rounded one way or another) and the swing is perfectly uniform, Labor will land one seat short of a majority and face what seems likely to be an entirely conservative cross bench. And even that assumes none of the Liberals in the four most marginal seats holds out against the tide, as several Labor members were able to do in similar circumstances in 2010 and 2014.
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WB
Was there ever a “swing that is perfectly uniform” as per opinion polls in any election?