Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 44, undecided 7

A dip in the Labor primary vote in the latest Essential poll, but no indication the Coalition stands to benefit from war in Ukraine.

Essential Research released its fortnightly poll yesterday, the headline “2PP+” reading of which had Labor on 49% (steady), the Coalition on 44% (down one) and undecided 7% (down one). Labor’s marginal improvement was in fact down to better preference flows, since it was down three points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party is steady on 3%, One Nation down two to 3%, others steady on 4%, and undecided up one to 7%. Labor did notably less well on the Queensland breakdown than last time, their primary vote down ten points to 29% with the Coalition up six to 40%.

Further questions record no advantage for the government on handling of the Ukraine onflict, with the Coalition and Labor tied at 24% on best party to handle, and 33% reckoning there to be no difference. Fifty-eight per cent support Australian financial support to supply weapons to Ukraine, with only 15% opposed, and 68% support additional refugee and humanitarian places for arrivals from Ukraine, with 10% opposed.

An occasional question on whether the government deserves to be re-elected finds an ongoing trend against the government, with 32% holding that view, down two on November, and a three point increase to 48% for the alternative proposition that it’s “time to give someone else a go”. A series of questions on gender equality, presumably to tie in with International Women’s Day, finds 67% believe there is still a long way to go on gender equality, although it seems question wording weighs heavily on such findings, since 48% also agreed gender equality had come far enough already.

The regular questions on COVID-19 management find the federal government’s ratings little changed, with approval down one to 39% and disapproval up one to 35%. The small-sample state government results find the Western Australia government back up by seven points to 71%, ahead of South Australia on 58%, Queensland on 51%, New South Wales on 46% and Victoria on 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 44, undecided 7”

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  2. “If there’s a spill it will be because they’ve given up all hope of an election win. It will be on the basis of saving the furniture, and Queensland is where the most furniture appears to be heading for the bonfire.

    The locals being as parochoial as they are, a fellow Queenslander would be the best bet. Make of that what you will.”

    And yet if Dutton became PM there would be bon fires lit in every other state in the country

  6. Hunt?

    ‘Minister for the Environment from 18.9.2013 to 19.7.2016.
    Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science from 19.7.2016 to 24.1.2017.
    Minister for Health from 24.1.2017 to 22.12.2020.
    Minister for Sport from 24.1.2017 to 20.12.2017.
    Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Public Service and Cabinet from 29.5.2019 to 22.12.2020.
    Minister for Health and Aged Care from 22.12.2020.’

    Now list his positive achievements:

  8. The 13,000-foot active volcano was out there on Ross Island about 70 kilometers from the mainland Royal Society Range.

    ——————————————————————————–

    correction: Not too flash with metric conversion. I grew up with pounds, shillings and pence and not “dismal guernsey”

    That should read about 40 kilometers.

  10. autocrat @ #1400 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 2:56 pm

    If there’s a spill it will be because they’ve given up all hope of an election win. It will be on the basis of saving the furniture, and Queensland is where the most furniture appears to be heading for the bonfire.

    The locals being as parochoial as they are, a fellow Queenslander would be the best bet. Make of that what you will.

    For the 492nd time, don’t assume that Dutton would be a positive for the coalition in Queensland. he’s no Kevin07

  12. The split election thinking goes something like – Ok, we get wiped out in the Half-Senate election, and face a hostile chamber for the next term.

    But, if we win the House in September through some shiny new thing as leader, showers of money, scare campaign from global threats and our BlackOpsYay ™ – well that hostile Senate will probably force a Double Dissolution in 2023.

    What have we got to lose? Have you seen our private polling?

  16. Nothing would surprise me if they did split it, using some pretext of national security or who knows what.

    If they did, I am sure the spanking whenever the election was would be much greater due to the desperation factor trying to stay in power.

    Given that we have had a PM in campaign mode since December, waiting till September would show the do nothing Govt for everything it has.

    Problem is self-interest and belief in the “Miracle” appears strong with Summo so can never doubt it

  17. Here is that Australian story – PM praying for a Queensland miracle : How good is Queensland?
    –
    Froth and bubble, no substance {sounds like Scomo}-
    Turns out to be just a wannabe story about the Fibs basing their election HQ in Brisbane again, the member for Ryan feeling under threat and their election fund-raising problems. That’s it.

  18. It is official.
    Based on a score of many hundreds to zero in the NT, if you want to shoot and kill an Indigenous person and not be convicted, become a copper.

  19. Could someone tell me how to access C+ again? I’m installing a new computer and I can’t find it in the Extensions section of the Chrome Web Store 🙁

  20. In what it is the most pro-police jurisdiction in Oz, that Rolfe was charged (and hastily ie without a coronial inquiry) was surprising. Not familiar with any other police officer being charged with murder, or even manslaughter, while ostensibly acting in the course of duty.

    The NT DPP played hard with the High Court challenge to the good faith defence which ultimately Rolfe did not require.

  22. Surely Qld in 2019 was an aberration, a bit of a high water mark for the LNP, cant see many additional gains there.

    I guess the gains in NSW strategy has been written off now.

  23. Antony Green wrote a long, annoyed article on the prospects of a split election

    “In my view there is no benefit for the government in splitting the elections. In fact, splitting the election would be a terrible re-election strategy. Forcing the electorate to vote twice at most only 15 weeks apart would be deeply deeply unpopular and almost guarantee the government’s defeat.”

    You get read the rest of it here

    https://antonygreen.com.au/why-the-2022-house-and-senate-elections-will-be-held-on-the-same-day/..

    Split elections, leadership spills. Rabid journo’s and back bencher’s wetting their pants speculation. Entertaining at best.

  24. I don’t get how the Liberals can believe that changing leaders at 5 seconds to midnight on the electoral clock will impress people? It’s like putting on a new coat to go out to dinner while you still have your dirty tracky daks on.

  26. Looking back on Australian politics since 2007 I can say nothing surprises me anymore.
    Instability is the new normal.
    So I’m in the camp that thinks the Libs moving on Morrison and/or he or his replacement holding only a half senate poll in May are both possible.
    It might make no sense to me but not a lot the Liberals do makes sense.

    Edit: and what would Green know? Is he Prime Minister?

  27. Kevin Rudd
    @MrKRudd
    ·
    29m
    Dutton has been caught lying AGAIN.

    Apparently, I’m “undermining” his Brisbane submarine base plan by pointing out he opposed the idea when it was Labor’s policy a decade ago!

    So Dutton, now you’ve stolen this Labor policy, tell us: were you lying then, or are you lying now?

  28. They’d either have to run dead at a half Senate election, or split party resources across a half Senate and House only election, presuming that their resources are not infinite. Of course, Labor would have to do the same, but given they’d be signalling to the world at large there lack of confidence at retaining government, you’d think this would have an impact on donations.

    On the polling numbers as it stands, it looks unlikely they will retain government, but certainly not impossible. Wise heads would look at that and see that splitting elections would be all risk with very little chance of reward.

  29. cat,

    I see:

    1. Ah you finally got rid of the bastard.
    2. You’ve had the change of Government you were asking for.
    3. Give the newby a go.


  31. Forcing the electorate to vote twice at most only 15 weeks apart would be deeply deeply unpopular and almost guarantee the government’s defeat.

    Perhaps their calculations is:
    Lose in may or lose in September.

  32. If there was a House only Election then the major parties might not run in unwinnable seats. The major parties only run everywhere in a Federal Election because they are accumulating Senate votes.

  33. BeaglieBoy at 8.44am…

    “So what should the priorities be for an incoming Labor Government?….At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves.”

    In the movie ‘The Dish’ (Sam Neil as head of Parkes radio telescope covering Apollo 11 Moon landing,) there is a scene where the NASA rep describes a conversation involving Apollo 11 Commander Neil Armstrong about the priorities for the mission…

    In response to a question ‘After landing on the Moon, what’s the next goal for the mission?’ Armstrong (allegedly) replied ‘Get off of it!’

    Apollo 11 carried out a tiny number of scientific experiments. Big science would happen later, and it wasn’t until Apollo 17 that an actual scientist was included in the crew.

    IF Labor get elected, the FIRST priority is to get re-elected.

    Is that power for power’s sake? No, it is retaining power long enough to bed down reforms that benefit large groups of Australians (as opposed to Coalition measures, which benefit the few.)

    We only have Medicare because Labor won five elections in a row. Even now, the Coalition spend time eroding it. The NDIS is on much shakier ground as it was initiated relatively late in the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era and then Labor lost, allowing the Coalition to pervert it.

    Once more, with feeling: IF Labor get elected, the FIRST priority is to get re-elected!

  36. Morrison has been sacked from every other job he’s had (correct me if that’s wrong), so I can think of nothing better than being sacked by the party. Being sacked by the people can be squirrelled away with a myriad of look-over-there excuses. But the party. Karma dude karma.

  40. Perhaps they’ll persuade themselves splitting it in two is a ‘cunning plan’. The electorate will vent their spleen in the first election round leaving them far less ‘angrified’ for the second. Far fetched ? Very likely but if your ‘ship’ is going down and you have no life jackets you’d be clutching at all straws.

  41. One ‘Fog of War’ problem is failing to empathise with one’s opponent.

    I struggle to empathise with Morrison, Dutton or Frydenberg.

    I cannot see any benefit to the Coalition in a split-election approach, but, I struggle to see the world through their eyes.

    As I think they would be hated for pulling this kind of stunt, I hope they do. Maybe it would give us a near-WA result in the federal Parliament!

    So, come on Coalition, split those elections!

  42. Itza at 5.01pm re Morrison getting sacked…

    I think I’m with Mavis (IIRC): IF Labor wins, I want to see Morrison have to deliver a concession.

  43. Sharma copping some flack, from locals and of course Ms Teal. He’s crapping on about always having been on the “blue spectrum”, whatever that means, seriously misreading the electorate, and looking a complete tosser.

    @spenderallegra
    Looks like my opponent is a big fan of teal. Copying my colours is a great start. Now do my policies. Commit to voting in Parliament for a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030, a federal integrity commission, and the humane treatment of refugees

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/11/ive-alway-been-on-the-blue-spectrum-dave-sharma-denies-mimicking-independent-rivals-colour-scheme

    btw, Spender’s got a few posters up and around, well placed too.

  45. Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
    Friday, March 11, 2022 at 4:44 pm

    Surely Qld in 2019 was an aberration, a bit of a high water mark for the LNP, cant see many additional gains there.

    —
    The biggest aberration in this century has been 2007 when Kevin 07 won 15 seats for Labor in Qld, then it drifted back down to 8 seats in 2010. Labor has been drifting between 6-8 QLD seats since {2013,2016,2019] but what really hurt Labor in Qld was the slump in PV and the blow out of LNP marginals. Ouch dat hurt. Hard to imagine an LNP gains in QLD IN 2022. Labor could jump back up to their high water mark of 8 seats in Qld {gaining 2} and win 2 senate seats.

  46. I fail to see how Peter Dutton could be a positive for the Liberal Party anywhere south of the seat of Dickson in Queensland.

  47. Scotty might like to be turfed. That way he can tell himself and everyone within earshot that he was never ‘rejected by the people of Australia’ it wos those lily livered poltroons wot dunnit. If it weren’t for their perfidy I ,chosen by god Scotty, couldawouldashoulda won the election. He’d ‘retire undefeated’ .

  48. frednk @ #1429 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 4:49 pm

    The age really are a bunch if dickheads. Using someone death to progress their little agenda

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/senator-had-health-issues-and-faced-factional-brawl-before-heart-attack-20220311-p5a3vo.html

    The article simply exposes a little of what goes on backstage behind the curtain.

    The following bit explains why Kitching may have been affected by stress with her position in question.

    Senator Kitching was on the losing side of the recent factional war in the Victorian Labor Party. Her party grouping, the Health Workers Union, was aligned with state MP Adem Somyurek, the dumped former powerbroker who dominated the Victorian branch.

  49. Itza,
    I think Dave Sharma means he’s closer to teal than deep blue on the ‘Blue Spectrum’.

    But he still votes with Barnaby Joyce. 😉

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