Preselection developments and another Morgan poll

A solution set to be imposed from above on the New South Wales Liberals’ preselection mess, and a Roy Morgan finding that the Ukraine war hasn’t moved the dial.

A federal intervention into the New South Wales branch of the Liberal Party is set to end a long-standing preselection impasse and ensure the re-endorsement of three sitting members who would otherwise have faced strong opposition in rank-and-file ballots: Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, whose machinations as a leader in the centre right faction have been widely blamed for the deadlock; Farrer MP and Environment Minister Sussan Ley; and factional moderate Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney.

The New South Wales branch has also been directed to “rectify the circumstances that candidates have not been selected and endorsed in other House of Representatives seats” by March 25. According to Max Maddison of The Australian, the upshot of this is that the following candidates will be rubber-stamped without a rank-and-file ballot: Alex Dore in Hughes, where he will run against party renegade and United Australia Party member Craig Kelly in the face of fierce opposition from the local membership; cardiologist Michael Feneley in Dobell, held for Labor by Emma McBride on a margin of 1.5%; disability campaigner David Brady in Warringah, where he will run against independent Zali Steggall; Franchise Council of Australia director Maria Kovacic in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a margin of 3.5%; banker Pradeep Pathi in Greenway, held for Labor by Michelle Rowland on a margin of 2.8%; and Jerry Nockles, former chief-of-staff to Senator Jim Molan, in Eden-Monaro, which Kristy McBain retained for Labor at a by-election held in July 2020 by 0.4%.

Further preselection news:

• Labor’s Victorian Senate preselection is moving towards resolution after the failure of legal action by Right faction unions associated with Bill Shorten to overturn the takeover of the process by the party’s national executive. Sarah Martin of The Guardian cites multiple sources within the party saying this is likely to result in the defeat of factional powerbroker Kim Carr, who has served in the Senate since 1993. Possible challengers for a position that is reserved to the Left include Linda White, the former national secretary of the Australian Services Union; Ryan Batchelor, a former staffer to Julia Gillard and the executive director of the McKell Institute; and Josh Bornstein, an industrial relations lawyer and Maurice Blackburn partner who appears to have reconsidered his earlier decision to withdraw over past social media posts criticising figures within the party and union movement.

• Anthony Byrne, member for the safe Labor seat of Holt in south-eastern Melbourne, announced on Thursday that he will retire at the election. According to The Age, there are two candidates for the preselection linked with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, which has traditionally controlled the seat: its national assistant secretary, Julia Fox, and Stephen Parnis, an emergency physician. Other Right faction contenders cited by Greg Brown of The Australian include Helen Cooney, director of Rest Super, and Liberty Sanger, director of Maurice Blackburn and wife of former MP David Feeney, along with Jo Briskey, political co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union.

• The Age reports Ross Lyman, head of supply and operations at McWilliam’s Wines and a former army commando who served in Afghanistan, will run against independent Helen Haines as the Liberal candidate for Indi.

• James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports the mayor and deputy mayor of Fairfield, Frank Carbone and Dai Le, are considering running as independents against Kristina Keneally in the western Sydney seat of Fowler, either individually and directing preferences to each other or with one supported by the other. Carbone polled nearly three-quarters of the vote in a two-horse race against a Labor candidate at the mayoral election in December, and Le polled 25.9% of the vote as an independent state candidate in Cabramatta in 2019, and 42.4% as the Liberal candidate in 2011.

Poll latest:

• Roy Morgan released its second set of federal voting intention numbers in a week on Thursday, having conducted a fresh poll to ascertain any effect from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the previous poll having been conducted entirely before then. All we are provided with is a two-party result of 56.5-43.5 for Labor, no different from the previous poll, with no primary votes or state breakdowns.

• Market research firm Momentum Intelligence has published a report gauging voting intention and political views of professionals in specific industry sectors, which finds Labor strongly favoured among those in the legal services sector, but the Coalition preferred in, ascendingly, aviation, accounting services, defence and national security, financial advice and wealth management, real estate services and mortgage lending, from sample of mostly around 300. The full report can be downloaded here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,363 comments on “Preselection developments and another Morgan poll”

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  2. If it hasn’t happened already I suspect the Morduch press will be blaming greenies for preventing Dams… which obviously would solve all the flooding problems, just like how reducing fuel load in the forest will stop all fires ….. never mind the extreme weather we are seeing!!

  3. Pi:

    The real heroes are the good people everyday who go unnoticed doing heroic things. The real heroes are the people you don’t even know are heroes

  6. Mavis. Foo Fighters do a great cover of Baker Street.
    And Gary Numans Down in the Park.

    The Colour and Shape album was a very important one in my life.

  7. Sir Smug

    Ayres is a hot proponent of the raising of the wall at Warragamba Dam to “protect” people living downstream from floods.

    Nothing of course to do with that “protection” meaning that more land on the flood plain can be developed for housing.

    Apart from the enormous cost there are serious environmental issues which are glossed over, not to mention the damage to world heritage areas.

    Perrottet seems less keen on the idea than some in his cabinet but this is NSW and we know where the power lies. Follow the money.

  8. Scout:

    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 9:31 pm

    [‘Mavis – this is the song that I played in the car back from the hospital with my daughter after she was born:’]

    Cool. I’ve got to say though that I will need to hear a little more of their repertoire before deciding to go all in. I hope you & your daughter enjoy the Foo Fighter’s Melbourne concert.

  9. Scout: “The real heroes are the good people everyday who go unnoticed doing heroic things. The real heroes are the people you don’t even know are heroes”

    Scout, I think you’ll find that “My Hero” by Foo Fighters is about exactly that thing.

    https://genius.com/Foo-fighters-my-hero-lyrics

    “Grohl has claimed he didn’t have any rockstar rolemodels growing up. This song is a tribute to those he did look up to: the everyday people.”

  11. This is creative-
    “NEW: Airbnb says 61,000 nights booked in 48 hours in Ukraine this week as people across the world make bookings they don’t intend to use as a way to raise money for Ukrainians

    On March 2/3:
    – 34,000 nights booked by US users
    – 3,000 from Canadians
    – 8,000 from UK
    Also important to note: Airbnb has waived its host & guest fees on these bookings

    On March 2/3, total gross booking value to Ukraine was nearly $2 million “

  12. Asha says:
    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 7:48 pm
    Snappy Tom:

    You make an excellent point about this morning’s Essential. A quick check of Bludgertrack shows Labor’s current primary at a high of 36%, rather lower than the 40% recorded in the previous Essential.

    Unless Labor can shift its PV from the low 30s to at least the high 30s, there will be no change of substance. The incumbents commence with a significant advantage. They’re now working to demolish Labor’s PV. Their colleagues in the Greens are doing the same thing. The historical record suggests the Reactionaries and their understudies will succeed again.

  13. Scout

    Have had a bit to do in the last few years with guy who was in South African special forces in the days when they were fighting the ANC.

    He doesn’t do war stories but bits I have picked up tell me he was a serious soldier.

    You could not meet a humbler person. He could probably cause me a serious injury with not much more than a harsh look.

  14. Simon Katich:

    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 9:47 pm

    [‘Mavis. Foo Fighters do a great cover of Baker Street.
    And Gary Numans Down in the Park.

    The Colour and Shape album was a very important one in my life.’]

    Thanks, I’ll check them out.

  17. Armchair General Sir Smug Gigglesworth:

    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 9:38 pm

    [‘What can one say about the attitude of this fellow?

    ‘Farcical’: Minister shoots down flood relocation, says residents know the risks.’]

    I get a strong feeling that he’ll come to regret his remarks.

  18. OH and daughter saw foo fighters last Friday.
    They were brilliant.

    They are due to tour again later in year.
    Pre sale tickets were released today and general sales tmrw.
    Hopefully we will get tickets again.

  19. GG,
    I worked in Insurance Claims when I first arrived in Oz and dealt with people trying to claim Mortgage insurance when the other partner had died .
    Most distressing to have to tell them that they couldn’t claim.
    As were the flood vs Storm damage claims, where we had to explain the difference- hated denying those too.

  20. Best Foo Fighters tracks are – IMO – Stacked Actors, Generator, All My Life, The Pretender, and Rope.

    Agree with SK about their “Down in the Park” cover, too. I reckon it’s better than the original.

  22. I spent many years working in HIV programs and will never forget the Foo Fighter’s AIDS and (most importantly) HIV treatment denialism. Around 2000-03, among other ludicrous claims, their website prominently advised that babies would be born with HIV and AIDS as a direct result of maternal antiviral treatment and the best bet was for HIV infected mothers to refuse antiviral treatment while pregnant and giving birth or, better yet, never bother to get tested in the first place. They exhorted their legion of young fans not to ‘fall for the HIV/AIDS hoax cooked up by big pharma’ and compliant governments. Whenever I hear about the Foo Fighters, I always wonder how much blood they have on their hands.

  24. I do like Andrew Street-
    “ Does Morrison honestly believe that the public thinks a government that can’t handle Lismore is the one we’d trust to handle China? #auspol”
    Another one from the SMH stable that I miss .
    I’m fact, if it wasn’t for HI’s crosswords , etc., I’d cancel my subscription.
    It started to go downhill when Moir was sidelined , then Michael West and other good journos.
    Subscribe to Crikey, The Saturday Paper, The Independent but HI is not persuaded. Old habits die hard.

  25. A Z at 3.04pm

    I applaud the Dutch promotion of cycling.

    Of course, Dutch cities tend to be less hilly (!) and, more importantly, less characterised by urban sprawl than Australian cities.

  26. Emma

    Yeah one of the band members got sucked into the pseudoscience of aids a few decades ago and co opted the rest of band.
    Since then the band and in particular, Dave Grohl supports Elton John’s charity for the treatment and prevention of aids.

  27. Emma

    For eg. I love the band the Killers. Brandon Flowers lead singer is a practising mormon.
    Does not sit well with me.
    Whatayoudo.
    I just enjoy the music and put that aside.
    If we apply cancel culture to everything, there will be nothing left.

  28. Holdenhillbilly at 3.50pm

    Not just Greg Sheridan slamming the Coalition on defence, but doing so on Andrew Bolt’s show!

    Will Bolt never invite him back, or has the anti-Scomo memo gone out from Rupes…?

  29. I asked my son if he was going to get tickets for the Foo Fighters and go see them with his mates. He said, to my surprise, that no they weren’t. He said they weren’t real enough for them. He’s going to pass. he said there are much better bands around to spend his money on and he’ll wait until they are touring.

  30. I did not know the Foo Fighters got sucked into that crap. Read this article about it and boy deja vu all over again with Covid when it comes to ‘denial’ ,even when they were dying of it. A Nelson Muntz gong for the loon that recruited the band member though.The ‘hoax’ got ‘er. .

    And HIV-positive “AIDS dissidents” who refused those treatments started dying of AIDS complications—including Nate Mendel’s mentor, Christine Maggiore. Most went to their graves insisting that what was killing them couldn’t possibly be killing them……………. In a response to the unflattering Mother Jones article, Mendel perfectly parroted Maggiore’s talking points, including evoking canards we still see in anti-science circles today, about “open-mindedness” and personal “research.”

    https://48hills.org/2021/05/opinion-aids-denialism-in-the-rock-and-roll-hall-of-fame/

  31. I asked my son if he was going to get tickets for the Foo Fighters and go see them with his mates. He said, to my surprise, that no they weren’t. He said they weren’t real enough for them. He’s going to pass. he said there are much better bands around to spend his money on and he’ll wait until they are touring.

    Burn. 😀

  32. Got a flyer in the mailbox today from Sam Lim, Labor’s candidate in Tangney which is held by Morrison loyalist Ben Morton with a 9.5 per cent margin.

    The usual stuff about Sam, Malaysian born and a well-regarded WA police officer. In 2020, he was awarded Police Officer of the year for his work with multicultural communities during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    There ‘s the message from Albanese as well.

    “Scott Morrison and the Liberals have attacked you at every opportunity, and backed Clive Palmer against Mark McGowan,” he says.

    “Scott Morrison even called you ‘cave people’ just for living safely without Covid-19.”

    Two messages I would hope to hear repeated in the campaign.

    Be a stretch for Labor to win Tangney but we can always hope

  33. Simon Katich @ #1290 Tuesday, March 8th, 2022 – 9:13 pm

    IIRC… There was a late winters day in Sydney back in the 80’s when it dropped over 300mm. In a day. In a Sydney winter.

    A couple of months later it hailed softball sized stones.

    I remember it because it also returned adcock park in Gosford back into the swamp it was built on.

    It’s still happening. 😐

  35. Scott Morrison should just commission an ad where a thrown kitchen sink is in shot for 30 seconds. It would at least be an honest depiction of what he’s doing.

  36. [‘Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s planned visit to Lismore from Wednesday could be a repeat of his excruciating encounter with angry residents of Cobargo during the 2019-20 bushfires.

    Many in the flood-affected region say they were left to fend for themselves as waters rose, and for days after, describing the government as grossly unprepared for the disaster.

    “We’re planning a shirt fronting!” Lismore resident Laurie said. “We’re ready to line up so he can’t shake our hands.”

    In announcing measures to release more disaster funding on Tuesday, Mr Morrison said he would travel to the Northern Rivers region as soon as he leaves Covid-19 quarantine.

    “I’ll be there this week, as soon as I can come out of isolation, to see this first-hand and talk to the community,” Mr Morrison said.’]

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/prime-minister-scott-morrisons-big-promise-to-floodravaged-communities/news-story/440bcd4b6b1308d5be43ec49e2daef72

    The residents of Lismore, Ballina & surrounds don’t want to hear Morrison’s platitudes. What they desperately needed and equally need is financial and ADF support in spades. This is shaping up as another “I don’t hold a hose, mate” moment, the federal seat of Page, held by the Country Party by a margin of 9.45, is vulnerable.

  37. SK

    Yes August 1986. 326 mls. Sydney’s wettest day.

    I recall Mike Bailey on the radio describing an inch of rain every hour for several hours.

  41. My son encouraged me to look at this FriendlyJordies from May last year…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vs1n-pCycA8

    It is long (about an hour.) Its Jordan with Kevin Rudd deconstructing a hit-piece on Rudd put together about a year ago.

    Lots of humour. Love the bits where they reflect on Mark (‘popular’ Sky contributor) Latham’s qualifications to: 1) analyse the impact of Rudd’s family background on his motivation in life (‘family psychologist’ Latham); and 2) make any negative comment about Rudd’s loyalty to Labor (once-ALP Leader to now-One Nationer Latham)!

    Once again, I’m impressed that FJ is communicating important stuff of this kind with significant numbers of people half my age (and younger).

  42. The Foo Fighters must be moving/moved into ‘Rock Dinosaur’ status. Dave being in the spotlight since Nirvana, all a loooong time ago now 🙂

  45. Speaking of bands, an old friends son got invited up on stage to sing with Amy Taylor and Amyl and the Sniffers on Saturday night. He’s one stoked teenager.

  47. The Foo Fighters must be moving/moved into ‘Rock Dinosaur’ status. Dave being in the spotlight since Nirvana, all a loooong time ago now 🙂

    Dinosaurs kicked mammalian butt six ways to Sunday.

    Foo Fighters, one night only in Geelong: a historic night for live music in Australia

    Never mind the rain or overpriced beer – Dave Grohl and co kicked off the return of stadium concerts on Australian shores, and the result was utterly euphoric

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/mar/05/foo-fighters-one-night-only-in-geelong-a-historic-night-for-live-music-in-australia

  48. Triceratops comes to Melbourne

    In March 2022, Melbourne Museum presents a new exhibition Triceratops: Fate of the Dinosaurs. It includes the most complete known fossil of the dinosaur Triceratops. The fossil is 67 million years old, 85% complete and was found in Hells Creek Montana USA. The creature is 3 metres tall, weighs 12 tonne and was a cute and friendly vegetarian. Museums Victoria director Lynley Crosswell describes the exhibition and the wider approach of Museums Victoria.

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/triceratops-comes-to-melbourne/13779792

  49. (Just in case it works.)

    It did at first; the playlist seems to expire after a few minutes, so only the link to the first video works.

    You could try going to the FF’s channel, and selecting the “Hail Satin” playlist:
    https://www.youtube.com/user/foofighters/playlists

    P.S. I’d rather be promoting bands I actually care about, but this kind of techo-BS should be challenged wherever it occurs.

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