Preselection developments and another Morgan poll

A solution set to be imposed from above on the New South Wales Liberals’ preselection mess, and a Roy Morgan finding that the Ukraine war hasn’t moved the dial.

A federal intervention into the New South Wales branch of the Liberal Party is set to end a long-standing preselection impasse and ensure the re-endorsement of three sitting members who would otherwise have faced strong opposition in rank-and-file ballots: Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, whose machinations as a leader in the centre right faction have been widely blamed for the deadlock; Farrer MP and Environment Minister Sussan Ley; and factional moderate Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney.

The New South Wales branch has also been directed to “rectify the circumstances that candidates have not been selected and endorsed in other House of Representatives seats” by March 25. According to Max Maddison of The Australian, the upshot of this is that the following candidates will be rubber-stamped without a rank-and-file ballot: Alex Dore in Hughes, where he will run against party renegade and United Australia Party member Craig Kelly in the face of fierce opposition from the local membership; cardiologist Michael Feneley in Dobell, held for Labor by Emma McBride on a margin of 1.5%; disability campaigner David Brady in Warringah, where he will run against independent Zali Steggall; Franchise Council of Australia director Maria Kovacic in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a margin of 3.5%; banker Pradeep Pathi in Greenway, held for Labor by Michelle Rowland on a margin of 2.8%; and Jerry Nockles, former chief-of-staff to Senator Jim Molan, in Eden-Monaro, which Kristy McBain retained for Labor at a by-election held in July 2020 by 0.4%.

Further preselection news:

• Labor’s Victorian Senate preselection is moving towards resolution after the failure of legal action by Right faction unions associated with Bill Shorten to overturn the takeover of the process by the party’s national executive. Sarah Martin of The Guardian cites multiple sources within the party saying this is likely to result in the defeat of factional powerbroker Kim Carr, who has served in the Senate since 1993. Possible challengers for a position that is reserved to the Left include Linda White, the former national secretary of the Australian Services Union; Ryan Batchelor, a former staffer to Julia Gillard and the executive director of the McKell Institute; and Josh Bornstein, an industrial relations lawyer and Maurice Blackburn partner who appears to have reconsidered his earlier decision to withdraw over past social media posts criticising figures within the party and union movement.

• Anthony Byrne, member for the safe Labor seat of Holt in south-eastern Melbourne, announced on Thursday that he will retire at the election. According to The Age, there are two candidates for the preselection linked with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, which has traditionally controlled the seat: its national assistant secretary, Julia Fox, and Stephen Parnis, an emergency physician. Other Right faction contenders cited by Greg Brown of The Australian include Helen Cooney, director of Rest Super, and Liberty Sanger, director of Maurice Blackburn and wife of former MP David Feeney, along with Jo Briskey, political co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union.

• The Age reports Ross Lyman, head of supply and operations at McWilliam’s Wines and a former army commando who served in Afghanistan, will run against independent Helen Haines as the Liberal candidate for Indi.

• James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports the mayor and deputy mayor of Fairfield, Frank Carbone and Dai Le, are considering running as independents against Kristina Keneally in the western Sydney seat of Fowler, either individually and directing preferences to each other or with one supported by the other. Carbone polled nearly three-quarters of the vote in a two-horse race against a Labor candidate at the mayoral election in December, and Le polled 25.9% of the vote as an independent state candidate in Cabramatta in 2019, and 42.4% as the Liberal candidate in 2011.

Poll latest:

• Roy Morgan released its second set of federal voting intention numbers in a week on Thursday, having conducted a fresh poll to ascertain any effect from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the previous poll having been conducted entirely before then. All we are provided with is a two-party result of 56.5-43.5 for Labor, no different from the previous poll, with no primary votes or state breakdowns.

• Market research firm Momentum Intelligence has published a report gauging voting intention and political views of professionals in specific industry sectors, which finds Labor strongly favoured among those in the legal services sector, but the Coalition preferred in, ascendingly, aviation, accounting services, defence and national security, financial advice and wealth management, real estate services and mortgage lending, from sample of mostly around 300. The full report can be downloaded here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,363 comments on “Preselection developments and another Morgan poll”

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  1. Will Libs go to Court to fight against Federal executive impositions? It is increasingly feasible the argument circulated by some state executive members that Morrison and Hawke delayed the preselection process to impose their candidates and avoid nasty preselection battles.

  2. Ven
    says:
    Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 2:53 am
    Will Libs go to Court to fight against Federal executive impositions?

    According to Greg Brown at the Australian [article posted on Friday Night]

    “Scott Morrison could be forced to propose a second federal intervention of the NSW Liberal Party within weeks as party powerbrokers insist on competitive pre-selections in seats without sitting MPs. Liberal members were considering their legal options on Friday after the party’s federal executive voted to temporarily take over managing the NSW division” and

    “The Australian understands Mr Camenzuli’s legal representatives have been approached by Liberal members who are aggrieved pre-selections in three seats have been cancelled”.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/lib-mps-wont-face-preselection-battles/news-story/9a4d760dbc75413306492a6ffaa32e6f

  3. ”
    Sandmansays:
    Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 3:33 am
    Ven
    says:
    Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 2:53 am
    Will Libs go to Court to fight against Federal executive impositions?

    According to Greg Brown at the Australian [article posted on Friday Night]

    “Scott Morrison could be forced to propose a second federal intervention of the NSW Liberal Party within weeks as party powerbrokers insist on competitive pre-selections in seats without sitting MPs. ………”

    “The Australian understands Mr Camenzuli’s legal representatives have been approached by Liberal members who are aggrieved pre-selections in three seats have been cancelled”.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/lib-mps-wont-face-preselection-battles/news-story/9a4d760dbc75413306492a6ffaa32e6f
    ”

    Sandman
    The article is contradictory when you compare above paragraphs.

    In 1st paragraph NSW Liberal party wants to have competative preselections in seats without sitting MPs

    In the 2nd paragraph Liberal party members are aggrieved because preselections where 3 sitting members are there, are cancelled.

    So what do they really want?

  6. I bet David Speers won’t ask one question of Peter Dutton about any of the matters that friendlyjordies brought up the other day.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. By not including articles on Ukraine and Shane Warne, I have been left with a shockingly small curation today.

    Under the unforgiving glare of looming federal and state elections, our national and state governments are “clearing the decks”, abandoning unpopular or simply embarrassing policies. Imagine how much better governance would be if we were on a permanent election footing, says Jon Faine.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/it-s-election-year-time-for-the-great-policy-purge-20220304-p5a1rs.html
    James Massola and Rachel Dexter write that surging rents and flat wages are forcing childcare, aged care and supermarket workers deeper into rental stress in four marginal seats that will be critical to the outcome of the election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-all-going-up-workers-face-rental-stress-in-key-marginal-seats-20220304-p5a1rb.html
    Lismore’s mayor says the flood disaster will change the city forever and if it doesn’t change, it won’t survive. Heath Gilmore looks at the city’s prospects.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/this-wasn-t-a-flood-it-was-a-demolition-how-can-lismore-survive-20220304-p5a1tf.html
    Jacqui Maley looks at the world’s events seen through the eyes of a 12-year-old whose limited experiences are being challenged.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/zelensky-has-spirit-while-the-world-seems-drained-of-it-no-wonder-we-re-fascinated-by-him-20220304-p5a1tt.html
    The federal government has pledged an extra $189 million for domestic, family and sexual violence services in the next budget, building on spending promised last year to improve women’s safety and economic security.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-pledges-189-million-for-sexual-family-violence-20220305-p5a20n.html
    The COVID-19 pandemic has set back the Melbourne CBD nearly two decades, a new analysis of visitor numbers shows, as the full scale of the economic challenge facing the city emerges writes Noel Towell.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/pandemic-sets-back-melbourne-cbd-two-decades-20220301-p5a0n4.html
    A new national survey from CHOICE has found that one in five Australians whose flights were cancelled due to COVID-19 border closures have been unable to use travel vouchers that were issued. Not surprising, really.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/trip-of-a-lifetime-cancelled-and-18-000-in-vouchers-left-unused-20220301-p5a0rv.html
    Fifty years ago, an Australian government had big plans for the media, seeing it as biased in favour of conservatism and its ownership too narrowly held. Powerful interests saw a sinister attempt to impose state control. With the death of Moss Cass, Australia’s second and last minister for the media, Mark Sawyer looks at a brave experiment and its legacy.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/dreaming-of-a-free-and-fair-media-when-a-rolling-debate-gathered-a-moss/
    A legal fundraiser allegedly donated to by Labor’s spokesperson for women, Tanya Plibersek, multiple female NSW state Labor parliamentarians, and advisers to Labor leader Anthony Albanese has sparked a defamation claim by a male union official.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/fundraiser-donated-to-by-labor-figures-sparks-sex-abuse-defamation-suit-20220217-p59xbc.html
    Close Donald Trump ally Roger Stone raged at the former US president in the aftermath of the failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election, according to a report from the Washington Post, telling a friend that Trump was a “disgrace” who would go to prison and adding: “He betrayed everybody.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/04/roger-stone-trump-election-jared-kushner

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding

    Peter Broelman

    Joe Benke

    Matt Davidson

    Reg Lynch

    Mark Knight

    From the US






  11. ‘The federal government has pledged an extra $189 million for domestic, family and sexual violence services in the next budget, building on spending promised last year to improve women’s safety and economic security.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-pledges-189-million-for-sexual-family-violence-20220305-p5a20n.html‘
    —————————————-
    Obviously part of the $16 billion in election bribes. It is a pity. With a normal government this would be seen as a good move. With Morrison it is seen as gesture politics.

  12. 3.8 quake in Adelaide (Mt. Barker in the Hills).

    Felt widely in the city.

    7:20am.

    First Warne and now this 🙁

  15. H.G Nelson
    @hg_nelson
    Sickbed Soot ‘the loner’ is still putting it about. Our Democracy champ has the mits around the throat of that nest of vipers, the NSW Liberal Party. He is squeezing the tripe out the locals. As Soot muttered through the wheezing ‘So much talent, so few seats!’ #auspol

  16. Checked ga.gov.au. Scary seeing the strong earthquakes happening near Aceh atm. One in lake Toba. A couple not too far from the 2004 Boxing Day quake.

  18. Morning all and thanks BK. Morrison shows his commitment to defending democratic values by trashing it in his own party preselections. What would Keating call Liberal MPs then – unrepresentative swill?

    I expect tomorrow’s Murdoch press will have a story about Shorten’s leadership plans.

  20. BW, I once had Special Mushroom Omelette for a breakfast on the ‘island’ in the lake. I claim to have thought the sign meant the omelette was the special of the day.

    The island was a major stopping point on the 60s hippy trail UK – Aus.

  21. Fun fact, the Coalition government has not commissioned and built a single dam in the last 8 years – despite promising a string of them, and setting Budget money aside..

  27. SK, yes indeed – and Frank Sumatra. Very hippy trail back in the day. I believe they have roads, motor bikes on the island now..

  30. It’s all so sad. Playing one of my favourite songs, ‘Mad World’ by Tears for Fears, as the backdrop to the horrific scenes in Ukraine made me feel like crying.

  43. Yes, took a spin on a moped around the island and out to the ‘town’ then to a nearby waterfall. ‘‘Twas good fun and a relief for sore feet.

    If I went again to nth Sumatra and Aceh we would ditch the minibuses (as interesting as they are – the animals, old ladies, school kids, chaps in bin Laden Tshirts) and just hire two bikes and pay the road tolls (bribes).

    Ahhhh. I just remembered the ferry out to the island. Delightful.

  50. So tough guy Dutton putting his CV forward as the protector of Australia.

    I fear the Liberals will regret not dumping ScoMo for the Potato

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