Preselection developments and another Morgan poll

A solution set to be imposed from above on the New South Wales Liberals’ preselection mess, and a Roy Morgan finding that the Ukraine war hasn’t moved the dial.

A federal intervention into the New South Wales branch of the Liberal Party is set to end a long-standing preselection impasse and ensure the re-endorsement of three sitting members who would otherwise have faced strong opposition in rank-and-file ballots: Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, whose machinations as a leader in the centre right faction have been widely blamed for the deadlock; Farrer MP and Environment Minister Sussan Ley; and factional moderate Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney.

The New South Wales branch has also been directed to “rectify the circumstances that candidates have not been selected and endorsed in other House of Representatives seats” by March 25. According to Max Maddison of The Australian, the upshot of this is that the following candidates will be rubber-stamped without a rank-and-file ballot: Alex Dore in Hughes, where he will run against party renegade and United Australia Party member Craig Kelly in the face of fierce opposition from the local membership; cardiologist Michael Feneley in Dobell, held for Labor by Emma McBride on a margin of 1.5%; disability campaigner David Brady in Warringah, where he will run against independent Zali Steggall; Franchise Council of Australia director Maria Kovacic in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a margin of 3.5%; banker Pradeep Pathi in Greenway, held for Labor by Michelle Rowland on a margin of 2.8%; and Jerry Nockles, former chief-of-staff to Senator Jim Molan, in Eden-Monaro, which Kristy McBain retained for Labor at a by-election held in July 2020 by 0.4%.

Further preselection news:

• Labor’s Victorian Senate preselection is moving towards resolution after the failure of legal action by Right faction unions associated with Bill Shorten to overturn the takeover of the process by the party’s national executive. Sarah Martin of The Guardian cites multiple sources within the party saying this is likely to result in the defeat of factional powerbroker Kim Carr, who has served in the Senate since 1993. Possible challengers for a position that is reserved to the Left include Linda White, the former national secretary of the Australian Services Union; Ryan Batchelor, a former staffer to Julia Gillard and the executive director of the McKell Institute; and Josh Bornstein, an industrial relations lawyer and Maurice Blackburn partner who appears to have reconsidered his earlier decision to withdraw over past social media posts criticising figures within the party and union movement.

• Anthony Byrne, member for the safe Labor seat of Holt in south-eastern Melbourne, announced on Thursday that he will retire at the election. According to The Age, there are two candidates for the preselection linked with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, which has traditionally controlled the seat: its national assistant secretary, Julia Fox, and Stephen Parnis, an emergency physician. Other Right faction contenders cited by Greg Brown of The Australian include Helen Cooney, director of Rest Super, and Liberty Sanger, director of Maurice Blackburn and wife of former MP David Feeney, along with Jo Briskey, political co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union.

The Age reports Ross Lyman, head of supply and operations at McWilliam’s Wines and a former army commando who served in Afghanistan, will run against independent Helen Haines as the Liberal candidate for Indi.

James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports the mayor and deputy mayor of Fairfield, Frank Carbone and Dai Le, are considering running as independents against Kristina Keneally in the western Sydney seat of Fowler, either individually and directing preferences to each other or with one supported by the other. Carbone polled nearly three-quarters of the vote in a two-horse race against a Labor candidate at the mayoral election in December, and Le polled 25.9% of the vote as an independent state candidate in Cabramatta in 2019, and 42.4% as the Liberal candidate in 2011.

Poll latest:

• Roy Morgan released its second set of federal voting intention numbers in a week on Thursday, having conducted a fresh poll to ascertain any effect from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the previous poll having been conducted entirely before then. All we are provided with is a two-party result of 56.5-43.5 for Labor, no different from the previous poll, with no primary votes or state breakdowns.

• Market research firm Momentum Intelligence has published a report gauging voting intention and political views of professionals in specific industry sectors, which finds Labor strongly favoured among those in the legal services sector, but the Coalition preferred in, ascendingly, aviation, accounting services, defence and national security, financial advice and wealth management, real estate services and mortgage lending, from sample of mostly around 300. The full report can be downloaded here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,363 comments on “Preselection developments and another Morgan poll”

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  1. We Want Paul at 11.36am re the problem of suburbs…

    I don’t have any stats, but we should operate on the assumption that Australian cities, like many in the US, have population densities that are too low, resulting in ‘urban sprawl’.

    Urban Sprawl results in too much distance between citizens and important services, too little density to support adequate public transport options, over-reliance on cars and ‘demand’ for lots of land for yet more low-density housing. Ultimately, the sprawl involves building on inappropriate land, like, say, floodplains…

  2. onfessions says:
    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 7:08 pm
    Today has been crazy in Sydney. I can’t believe the Roseville Bridge flooded.

    Don’t panic!! it was just a flor between the concrete barriers.. in effect forming a viaduct ..

    Middle Harbour raising to flood the bridge happens next century

  3. mh
    Buy anything that stores well, IMO.
    Higher fuel prices feed direct into higher food prices because input cost.
    Higher gas prices feed direct into higher fertilizer prices. Supply chain difficulties in this chain are already feeding into fertilizer shortages.
    It is difficult to image that Ukraine will be doing much planting any time soon.
    Add a climate catastrophe in this or that agricultural region.
    No brainer.
    IMO Putin’s War is going to add seriously to the people in the world who are going to go to bed hungry and to starve.

  4. ‘Confessions says:
    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 7:28 pm

    Boerwar:

    We also have to get over our obsession with having single dwellings with front and backyards.’
    ——————————————–
    Zero migration would fix all our housing problems within a decade.

  5. poroti
    Nice couple of pick ups. I suspect that people have not even begun to figure out the consequences of Putin’s War.
    I was looking at the indicators under the heading of Pakistan having a serious hunger problem.
    More than one in three Pakistanis are under nourished.
    Given the extremely young age demographic something has to bust eventually.

  6. BK says:
    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 7:27 pm
    BTW…I hope you’re on the mend…
    _______
    Bludging
    So far, so good. On the improve quite well I reckon.

    Great news, BK

  7. Pi

    Today you seem to have a bee in your bonnet about the US. Yesterday you had an obsession with fertility rates.

    Today we are talking about Pakistan.
    Pakistan has a serious hunger problem. I assume you accept that tens of millions of people in Pakistan are under nourished. Present tense.
    If Pakistan had half the population it has now it would not have a serious hunger problem.
    Everyone would be well fed.

  8. Reducing the fuel excise probably won’t be effective in lowering prices unless there’s some legislation requiring the oil companies and their retailers to pass it on.

    It’s the end of the two week fuel cycle in Perth tomorrow and the price of unleaded will jump around 20c a litre to over $2 for the first time here but the range from different suburbs and retailers will be 30c a litre.

    Nothing is less transparent than the pricing of fuel.

    I’m fortunate as fuel is not a major budget item for me unless I’m travelling but I’d hate to be a car commuter these days.

    There was a report in the Nine papers today that the brewing industry was lobbying Frydenberg for a cut in the excuse own beer. It could reduce the price of a pint by 30c they said. If it was passed on, the story noted.

    I laughed over my Weetbix.

    The same report also detailed the hundreds of thousands the brewers have donated to the Liberals and Labor over the years.

  9. Snappy Tom:

    You make an excellent point about this morning’s Essential. A quick check of Bludgertrack shows Labor’s current primary at a high of 36%, rather lower than the 40% recorded in the previous Essential. Both Essentials being outliers in either direction seems a more rational explanation than a sudden plunge in Labor support in Queensland that – IMO – does not really track with recent events in the state.

    But this is obviously all just guesswork (and wishful thinking ) until a few more polls come out to either confirm or discredit this one.

  10. In Sydney it has rained on each of the last 16 days, significant amounts each day. In that time Sydney has 598 mm of rain (about 23½”), roughly half our annual average. I’ve never seen anything like it.

  11. BW: Today you seem to have a bee in your bonnet about the US.

    I have a bee in my bonnet about people making up narratives trying to associate food production with populations for reasons I’ve already stated. They use ignorance to feed xenophobia and bigotry, which is why I don’t like them.

    > Today we are talking about Pakistan.

    Today you’re making up narratives about Pakistan that are so shallow that they could just as easily be applied to the US.

    > I assume you accept that tens of millions of people in Pakistan are under nourished. Present tense.

    Just like the US.

    https://www.feedingamerica.org/hunger-in-america

  12. Sorry to bang on.. Leigh Sales interviewing Foo fighters Taylor Hawkins… just doesn’t give the appearance of being engaged at all.. just reading off “Red Kerry’s “ clipboard

  13. I think that this month’s Federal Budget will be a case of “taxes overboard” as the Government desperately goes out to buy votes. No one will ask where the money’s coming from.

    If that doesn’t work, they at least deprive the incoming Government of revenue.

  14. Boerwar says Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 7:31 pm

    Zero migration would fix all our housing problems within a decade.

    That’s what everyone was saying two years ago, but house prices went up.

  15. For travelling around the places we visit,it’s always by bike
    We ride 30-50 ks a day see so much more and keep our exercise up .
    One of the best rides was a 5hr ride around Beijing finishing at night in the hotong. A great experience.

    Well over 100 towns and cities.

  16. Rossmcg @ #1268 Tuesday, March 8th, 2022 – 6:47 pm

    It’s the end of the two week fuel cycle in Perth tomorrow and the price of unleaded will jump around 20c a litre to over $2 for the first time here but the range from different suburbs and retailers will be 30c a litre.

    Nothing is less transparent than the pricing of fuel.

    In the US people would be rioting in the streets if the price of fuel periodically jumped by $1+ per gallon for no particular reason. We’re stuck with the “fuel price cycle” roller-coaster only because we accept it.

  17. One of the umpires overseeing this drab cricket day was shot in the terrorist attack in Lahore that sent Pakistan back into the cricket wilderness – c/- Crininfo

    “Ahsan Raza was a wicketkeeper and tailend batsman who moved across to umpire after retiring as a player, making his first appearances as an international reserve official in the series between Pakistan and Sri Lanka in 2008-09. He was travelling to the Gaddafi Stadium on the third day of the second Test when he was shot in the back and critically wounded in a terrorist attack aimed at the Sri Lanka squad.”

  18. Rossmcg
    My son had just left to top up my car and I was a bit bemused as to why he was doing it now. Then I read your comment and it all makes sense.
    I have just come home from 6 days in Fiona Stanley and won’t be doing much driving but when fuel prices are high my little car becomes the go too because of its fuel economy.

  19. BSA Bob

    To avoid fuel retailers catching people by surprise the WA Government requires them to report at 2pm each day what they will be charging the following day.

    According to this story the price of unleaded in Perth will vary from 229.9 cents a litre to 169.5.

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/lifestyle/motoring/fuel-prices-australia-average-price-of-unleaded-petrol-in-perth-reaches-2089-cents-a-litre-c-5978853

    Make sense of that if you can.

    The fuel stations (I don’t call them service stations cos there’s none of that) will be very quiet tomorrow.

  20. ‘bc says:
    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 8:03 pm

    Boerwar says Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 7:31 pm

    Zero migration would fix all our housing problems within a decade.

    That’s what everyone was saying two years ago, but house prices went up.’
    ———————————————————
    There has been a massive injection of free money washing through the system. That will need to be paid for. Eight years to go.

  21. ‘Mrmoney says:
    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 8:04 pm

    For travelling around the places we visit,it’s always by bike
    We ride 30-50 ks a day see so much more and keep our exercise up .
    One of the best rides was a 5hr ride around Beijing finishing at night in the hotong. A great experience.

    Well over 100 towns and cities.’
    —————————–
    Sounds like good clean fun.

  22. IIRC… There was a late winters day in Sydney back in the 80’s when it dropped over 300mm. In a day. In a Sydney winter.

    A couple of months later it hailed softball sized stones.

    I remember it because it also returned adcock park in Gosford back into the swamp it was built on.

  23. poroti says:
    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 8:43 pm
    Sceptic at 7:58 pm
    Leigh upset cos she thought it was going to be NSYNC ?

    The sense I get is that Leigh is just a celebrity groupie… all a gush with.. “ I have the best job in the world … or what ever” at the end of segment …

    Edit…
    Mavis says:
    Tuesday, March 8, 2022 at 9:14 pm

    Didn’t she say .. biggest band in the world?

  24. “I notice that someone earlier stated that we can’t all live on a hill. This is utter nonsense.”

    So we can all live on a hill.

    Goodo.

  25. Mavis – this is the song that I played in the car back from the hospital with my daughter after she was born:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhzmNRtIp8k

    She is now 18 and we are planning on going to the Foo Fighters in Melbourne where she is and we are not when they tour shortly…my young bloke prefers him when Dave Grohl was with Nirvana

  26. BREAKING: @smh
    2.32pm
    The SES has issued an urgent alert for residents around Manly Dam to evacuate immediately.
    The dam has reached “red alert” and has commenced overflowing.
    “Residents in low-lying areas below Manly Dam need to evacuate immediately. LEAVE NOW,” the SES said.

    People shouldn’t live in Manly. Or Sydney for that matter. Captain Cook and the Aborigines should have foreseen climate change 300 years ago.

  27. Moses adds more colourful words to those giving evidence against his client, Roberts-Smith. Thus far they were either lying, dumping on him, or insanely jealous of him. Today Person 18 was asked in X if he was a “hater”, a rumour-monger:

    [“The persons who were spreading these rumours; they were haters of Mr Roberts-Smith, weren’t they?” Mr Moses asked.

    “I don’t know,” Person 18 said. “I don’t recall who they were, and I don’t recall if they hated him.”

    “Were you the one spreading the rumours? Were you the hater?” Mr Moses said.

    “No,” Person 18 said. “I don’t hate Ben; I don’t know the guy. I know that I worked with him 12 years ago, but as a person … I’ve got no idea.”

    Person 18 rejected Mr Moses’ suggestion that he was jealous of Mr Roberts-Smith.

    Person 18 told the court that he believed Person 5, who received the Star of Gallantry, should “show some humility” and “calm down a bit”.

    “His actions there throwing a grenade over a building; it was written up to be the saviour of the day [at Tizak],” Person 18 said.

    “I said to him, ‘I don’t believe it really was, mate. You didn’t know where the grenade was going. Yes, it went off in the position, but at the same time, you’re trying to sell that story to a bunch of guys that know the reality there.’”

    He said that “anything that comes from these [awards] … would be a reflection of the team, so we would either be liars or complete exaggerators”.

    Asked if he was suggesting Person 5 was a liar or exaggerator, Person 18 said: “No, he was just not showing the humility, that’s it.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-didn-t-deserve-his-victoria-cross-sas-soldier-tells-court-20220308-p5a2u6.html

  28. What can one say about the attitude of this fellow?

    ‘Farcical’: Minister shoots down flood relocation, says residents know the risks

    Minister for Western Sydney Stuart Ayres has rejected calls to relocate people from floodplains, arguing residents are aware of the risks in choosing to live in a flood-prone area.

    We’ll blow me down. I didn’t know Stuart Ayres posted on this site about people who don’t live on hills.

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