I’ve been a bit lax in keeping up on federal preselection developments of late, which have naturally been gathering pace as the big event gets closer. To keep things manageable, I will focus in this post on developments in New South Wales, which is where most of the action has been.
Things have been particularly lively in the Liberal camp, where Scott Morrison finds himself in the thick of factional warfare between his centre right faction and its principal numbers man, Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, and an alliance of the moderate and the hard right factions. As Mike Steketee at the Saturday Paper relates, the latter have accused the former of obstructing the process so as to avoid rank-and-file ballots that may not go their way, potentially endangering Hawke himself. Steketee reports expectations that the end game will be a deal that leaves all sitting members undisturbed, with ballots to proceed in a number of important seats where it may have been prudent to have had candidates in place quite a bit sooner.
• Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph reports the failure of Scott Morrison’s seemingly desperate attempt to recruit Gladys Berejiklian in Warringah leaves Jane Buncle, a “high-flying junior barrister who believes in climate change”, as the favourite to run against independent Zali Steggall. However, James Massola of the Sydney Morning Herald reported party polling tested the prospects of Berejiklian, Buncle, former Premier Mike Baird and management consultant Alex Dore (who according to the Telegraph is still considering running), and found only Berejiklian would win the seat.
• In a particularly helpful account of the broader state of play, Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports three candidates have nominated in Parramatta, which the party is hopeful of knocking over with the retirement after 17 years of Labor member Julie Owens. These are Maria Kovacic, co-founder of Western Sydney Women; Felicity Findlay, acquisitions manager for property investment firm Merc Capital; and Charles Camenzuli, engineer and unsuccessful candidate for the seat in 2010 and 2019. Silmaris notes the party has extended nominations in the hope that a stronger candidate might come forward. Former Parramatta councillor Martin Zaiter is “being wooed”; efforts to interest Geoff Lee, who holds the state seat of Parramatta, have come to nothing.
• One of the preselection challenges Alex Hawke is keen to head off is that against Environment Minister Sussan Ley in Farrer, where she is threatened by Christian Ellis, a public relations specialist who has made a name locally campaigning for water rights. Linda Silmaris’s report says “Mr Ellis’s supporters believe their candidate has the numbers, triggering panic among those backing Ms Ley”.
• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected to run against Labor member Susan Templeman in Macquarie, where she fell short by 371 votes on her first attempt in 2019.
On the other side of the aisle:
• Sarah Martin of The Guardian offers a revealing account of the complex state of play in Labor’s preselection for Parramatta. Local branches are dominated by the soft left faction associated with Laurie Ferguson, which duly favours a rank-and-file ballot. However, the faction is split between supporters Julia Finn, member for the state seat of Granville, and Durga Owen, criminal lawyer and Western Sydney University lecturer, neither of whom are “seen as acceptable to the federal executive”. This would appear to include Anthony Albanese, who may be about to sanction a push for the executive to take matters into its own hands due to familiar concerns about branch stacking. Albanese’s own branch of the Left favours Abha Devasia, legal director of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union. However, the Right seemingly wants in as well, demanding compensation for the selection of the unaligned Daniel Repacholi to replace Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter.
• Also noted in Sarah Martin’s article is that a rank-and-file ballot to choose Sharon Bird’s successor in Cunningham is expected to be won by Alison Byrnes, a staffer to Bird and the wife of state MP Paul Scully.
• Labor’s candidate for Lindsay, which Melissa McIntosh won for the Liberals from Labor in 2019, will be Trevor Ross, a firefighter of 36 years.
So is Morrison in Tasmania campaigning for less Government regulation of the Jumping Castle industry- as in, Government getting out of our lives?
The loss of 5 children is unbelievably sad, but has Morrison even mentioned the 2,100 Australians that have died of Covid?
Nath @ 12.24
You don’t have continually prove what a disgusting arsehole you are.
This is already well known here.
Why don’t you stop yapping for while and give it a rest.
Torchbearer
The loss of 5 children is unbelievably sad, but has Morrison even mentioned the 2,100 Australians that have died of Covid?
____________________________________________
That’s somebody else’s fault.
The Liar is quite happy to claim credit for saving the lives of the millions of Australians who have not died of COVID (at least until they do).
“To me the comment suggested that Bandt actually doesn’t know many kids in the real world.”
***
It’s just another confirmation that he’s far more in touch with reality than the conservative tut-tutters from the Lib/Lab establishment.
The stereotype that all pot smokers are lazy and unproductive is also way off. Some are, some aren’t. Largely depends on the pot being taken – there are many different strains that have vastly different highs.
There’s really no difference between the clubbers/binge drinkers and the pot smokers. Well, actually, no, there is – the drinkers are the far bigger problem.
The idea that binge drinking alcoholics are somehow better at holding down a “serious job” (whatever that’s supposed to mean – a job is a job) than pot smokers is also ludicrous in the extreme and is based on nothing but false prejudices fuelled by propaganda.
Pornographic images of a Liberal staffer masturbating at Parliament House have been seized in dramatic police raids as part of an investigation into revenge porn allegations.
news.com.au has confirmed that two search warrants were executed on Thursday at two homes in Canberra and Queensland granting the police powers to seize computer equipment, laptops, tablets and computer hard drives, mobile phones and USBs.
The warrants state police are investigating whether a former Canberra man distributed lewd images without consent between November 2020 and March 2021 in contravention of Crimes Act 1900 (ACT) s 72C.
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/police-raid-over-parliament-house-revenge-porn-probe/news-story/12d6326adf606a278405363cd4857d2d
Don Harwin stepping down from NSW Cabinet and retiring at next election.
Note also comment in article by Shelley Hancock re Gladys.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/don-harwin-steps-down-as-minister-will-not-contest-the-next-election-20211218-p59io9.html
Firefox @ #1204 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 1:03 pm
It also feeds into the problematic myth of the “high functioning addict”
P1
Bandt’s wording was ‘just smoke weed for a year or two’.
The implication that that’s all they’re doing is his, not mine.
I’m glad you disagree with him.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/don-harwin-steps-down-as-minister-will-not-contest-the-next-election-20211218-p59io9.html
snap B L
Poliphili says:
Saturday, December 18, 2021 at 1:28 pm
Nath @ 12.24
You don’t have continually prove what a disgusting arsehole you are.
This is already well known here.
___________________
McGowan turning up at the little girls house with a teddy bear was one of the most shameless episodes in modern politics. I actually somewhat grudgingly appreciated the audacity of it.
Cheers, Itza.
Nath
And if your hero Scotty turned up he would be the greatest.
Burnet Institute
@BurnetInstitute
Omicron five times more more likely to reinfect than Delta and shown no sign of being milder than Delta, an @imperialcollege
London study showed, as cases soar across Europe and threaten year-end festivities. @AAMRI_Aus
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-five-times-more-likely-reinfect-than-delta-study-says-2021-12-17/
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/omicron-5-4-times-more-likely-to-reinfect-than-delta-study-20211218-p59inn.html
I just came across this disgusting post. I have edited slightly to make Nostra’s meaning absolutely clear, without his obfuscation.
Nostradamus @ #720 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 10:31 am
I don’t think this has been posted. Hartcher saying more of the same.
Albo wants people to remember. Morrison wants people to forget, but Omicron might be the reminder he doesn’t want when he needs it least. The budgetary pressures to open and stay open are unstoppable. Even if the clinical course of Covid proves to be milder, the transmission rate will likely ensure admission rates stay up, or don’t fall.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/omicron-threatens-to-tip-morrison-s-path-to-victory-over-a-cliff-20211217-p59id7.html
Summer is in our favour. Like the Delta escape. Omicron is driving booster take up, if where and when remain equivocal.
Bennelong Lurker @ #1212 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 1:50 pm
I’m guessing you’ve seen this. They acted quickly. I hear he is much loved by QSO.
https://limelightmagazine.com.au/news/sydney-symphony-appoints-craig-whitehead-interim-ceo/
And this, which seems to escape the $ wall.
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/why-the-sydney-symphony-orchestra-is-paralysed-by-division-20211125-p59ca0
There is an image of the Pentecostal on the 9 Entertainment site
There is one other couple with a child and you would assume one of the families whose lives have been so cruelly impacted
But who is the other woman in the image?
The School Principal?
Or the local Liberal candidate?
There are more than one family suffering
I note there is a call from one family for skilled surgeons to be flown to the site to assist
I note that, with the deaths of residents at Commonwealth run “can do capitalism” Aged Care facilities (St Basil’s only one) the Pentecostal is not alongside them explaining why there was no defence to any virus, let alone a Pandemic at these facilities
And no surge staff to cover the standing down of employees at a Tier One site
Despite the money spent by the Pentecostal lavished on staff hire Companies
By all means visit to offer support, but in these circumstances leave the press out
The presence of the press turns it into a political response
“pm privately visits ….. and will not be making a statement to media in these tragic circumstances”
Respect the privacy
Thank you, Itza:
I had seen the a news about Craig Whiehead and am rather hoping that the word “ interim” might be temporary. Unfortunately the AFR won’t let me in to its article.
I wonder who will get the Arts portfolio in the reshuffle. I have a feeling that it will not be a high priority.
Edit: changed a word
Wat Tyler @ #1207 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 1:40 pm
They exist. 😐
Holdenhillbilly @ #1205 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 1:37 pm
Are the wallopers sensing a Labor victory? Or has Scott let them off the leash to build up his street cred as far as an out of control testosterone-heavy government is concerned?
Observer @ #1219 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 2:20 pm
The POS sees every action as a transaction for personal benefit. There are no limits to this.
Scott Morrison admitted to Annabel Crabb that he is purely ‘transactional’.
This sentiment has probably already been expressed. However, I am afraid that I find Morrison’s “mercy dash” to Devonport somewhat unsettling. In comparison, the response of the local senator, Jacqui Lambie, to the jumping castle tragedy was thoughtfully measured.
zoomster @ #1208 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 1:41 pm
Huh? What have you been smoking?
As one of the daughters put it, some things are above, or should be, pollyTICs.
Had the ‘PM’ gone quietly to the site of the disastrous jumping castle school in TAS, it would have been more human. [There’s a photo of Jen with her husband on TGA’s live blog in full on my knees mode being looked at by others that needs no caption.
Certainly not bothered with anything human normally, talking of dollars for counciling is just more of a dissatisfier.
Whomever is in the DP&C/ PMO on comms clearly either doesn’t get …, or this is just more … a quiet call could have gone out to the media to not treat this as …
The Fibs need to be treated like the anti-social outfit they are.]
If I look at recent PMs clearly some were more credible or relevant than others.
Even the Rodent HoWARd, before the whole RGR of wasted opportunity, I might have disagreed with him, definitely not trusted him, but he could articulate the why/ how/ what of a course of action.
This one might be able [to find] the pub with some assistance, he certainly wouldn’t know what to do inside.
Who said it here the other day? Morrison’s antics of doubling and tripling down on the marketing shtick (“shake and bake” etcetera) are having the opposite of the desired effect. Once people think ‘what a nong’, such behaviour results in a more negative opinion being held going forward.
Political focus group findings are only shaped by those willing to participate…
C@tmomma @ #1165 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 12:38 pm
Including moderation 🙂
Many are apparently in federal cabinet.
There have been numerous pics on Twitter of Morrison who, after producing a serious/sad/’heartfelt’ message for the media, then stands aside for the next speaker and SMIRKS. Congratulating himself on pulling off the deception, no doubt.
On his knees!?!
Give me a freaking break.
Daniel Andrews has just overtaken Jeff Kennet to become the seventh longest-serving premier of Victoria:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_premiers_of_Victoria_by_time_in_office
What next!?!
https://youtu.be/LQdMZ1qrn6k
C@t
You’ll appreciate this, then.
nath
Politicians will politicise if they perceive a benefit. That doesn’t make it right when either side does it.
I’ll agree that McGowan’s effort was grubby, but I’ll just point out Scott Morrison’s effort is much, much worse for the reason others have pointed out – he’s politicising the death of children.
I went shopping this morning. No QR codes, less than half of the patrons wearing masks, let alone over the nose. Oh, Dear. Time to get back under the doona. And here is a song for the rest of NSW 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXRQV5z9GL8
Why am I not surprised? 🙄
Can even one journalist please point out the political opportunism?
Redbridge polled today, Page electorate
A bit push polling IMO with the way it was so evidently about independents as it went on, seemed pretty obvious it would be funded by Climate 200. Suspected as much when they said redbridge at the start.
First asking generally about Fed election, opinion on local Nat MP and LNP govt on various issues, climate, integrity, happy with Barnacle being in charge of the Nats and deputy PM? Voting intention, how hard or soft vote is.
Then have you heard of Haines? do you know the policies about integrity and others she apparently campaigned on? Which were then outlined. Then voting intention again, after hearing all that, including an independent ‘like Haines’ or other indie options the second time.
No mention that anyone else might have any integrity or even better climate or comparable policy options.
FWIW I’d say indy or Labor has no chance in Page, nor Greens currently, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Nats go backwards a bit. Most Greens votes steady to up a bit and all councillors returned as far as I’m aware within the electorate area during local govt elections just done, plus a couple more perhaps, whilst Labor vote seemed to sink significantly.
Greens outpolled Labor in both Lismore and Ballina councils, Labor evidently didn’t field a candidate in Clarence Valley and Greens didn’t in Richmond Valley. All the local Nats ran as ‘independents’, but not all independents were Nats either. The Nats tried to run a subterfuge campaign about getting parties out of local government to confuse matters.
Climate and the black summer fires were massive issues in the electorate since 2019 and I expect these to be high on the mind of many voters, but can’t see any indy campaign or candidate getting anywhere significant here.
JimmyD @ #1236 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 3:04 pm
Exactly. To try and create a false equivalence from the two events is just grubby.
Chloe: Alive
5 Tassie Kids: Dead and not yet buried
Does anyone know if Sir Albert Dunstan is related to Don Dunstan?
C@t,
Plenty of breaks here….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXNzMVLqIHg
Also re McGowan, he was responsible for mobilising the police and the resources of state that found the girl.
Morrison is just an observer who lobbed into town for a photo op.
McGowan was celebrating success. Morison….
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/peter-hamby-gen-z-and-the-covid-wars
You might be interested in this, Asha. Some Millennials talking about politics. 🙂
Not saying a Federal ICAC isn’t important, but – whatever they might say in response to a pollster – I doubt it will be uppermost in voters’ minds come the day.
Hi AE. Trawled back to your 9:45 of yesterday.
Its viable i think. Suffren is pretty much what i am talking about and i think very much an equivalent to what the Koreans are planning.
Problem of course is that the French are wayyyyyyyyyy pissed at us now. Maybe an incoming ALP Govt can craft something where they do get involved on the basis that it sticks it up the Liar from the Shire, and the Poms, and to a lesser extent the US? 🙂 May be a benefit to us in not having to pay as much in contract break fees??
That said i dont think the French are the only ones we can look at as a prime contractor. They may see an advantage in being involved in something (like building “reactor plugs” rather than ÄIP plugs”) that would make their reactor tech the goto for countries wanting their own nuke boats?? Thats possibly where the Koreans are going.
On size of the boats i think something smaller and more maneuverable is the way to go for us. Primarily a ship-killer (torpedo) and recce platform. Capability for a dozen or so cruise missiles in a VLS for salvo launching is getting pretty standard these days and that used to be the province of BIG…… US boats. Cant see us doing the Ohio thing and owning big SSGN’s capable of shit-canning half a country that are based on an SSBN design. Fwark, 2 of those boats lurking deepwater in range of the South China Sea must give our mate Xi and anyone posted to those built tripwire islands nightmares…..but, i think that’s a capability we cant afford and will have to rely on the US for.
Interesting that shore based missiles under an integrated air defense system for actual defense a shoreline seems to be popping up in western military circles? Modern equivalent of Singapore’s WWII big guns but with mobility?? 🙂
Honestly, i hope that after a change in Govt there will be a proper debate in the ALP about how and where to go on subs. And a lot of that is i think going to be based on our AUKUS allies just not having the build capability to meet Australian wants/needs in any reasonable time-frame and NOT at exorbitant cost AND the underlying issue of crewing whatever we do get.
Lets smooze daH Frogs for subs, champagne and decent soft cheese wot!!
bakunin @ #1241 Saturday, December 18th, 2021 – 3:09 pm
You made me laugh imagining Scott Morrison getting down with the Gen X crowd by busting a move. 😆
“Exactly. To try and create a false equivalence from the two events is just grubby.
Chloe: Alive
5 Tassie Kids: Dead and not yet buried”
McGowan and the police teddy bear thing. Yup, can be seen as political but what pollie doesn’t want their mug associated with a sudden good news event? And, he was the Premier that signed off on the resources thrown at it, that teddy was quite a human thing.
Morriscum harps on about $ figures allocated? FAIL.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/12/16/preselection-latest-nsw-edition/comment-page-25/#comment-3777027 [Fortress Singapore and them battleships vs aircraft.]
Ah, the pursuit of diplomacy by other means, when national security and public safety given a pandemic, climate …
In WW1, Sitzkrieg seemed to mean that tanks might be able to get around fortified positions, unlike waves of humans.
In WW2, aircraft had no trouble sorting coffins of steel. [It seemed to have put an end to putting up a perfectly expandable asset, till force could be brought to bear. Then again Boer War, Gallipoli, Dunkirk, Singapore, Suez …]
… JSTARS etc during Desert Storm/ GW1 showed what if you can find it you can hit it, and if you can hit it, you can kill it meant.
That came before don’t fear MAD with GTN forces, fear the terrorist with WMDs like biologicals and chemicals.
In WW5, NCW etc, drones will out do capital assets, shooters and platforms, just look at the Falklands/ Malvinas conflict what a few Exocets, if sub sinking a cruiser to lock up most of a fleet, were able to do. Or tabbing to take a mountain.
Only pollyTICs and fools will plan a conflict by the rules of a prior one. [And only the dead have seen the end of conflict.]
It might have been legal to acquire by force, finding it empty or treaty at one stage, that changed with the Neuremburg and Tokyo Tribunals, n’est ce pas?
Pretty certain jaw jaw beat war war (unless your lobbyists/ donors just got shares in …).
Plenty of ways for society to advance that don’t require aggressive …
[Before Australia can commit troops more than 1000 kms from its EZ or territorial waters there should be a national security cabinet vote, double majority in both houses of parliament and a mandatory and binding referendum.
And in the meantime put up TBMD?]