I’ve been a bit lax in keeping up on federal preselection developments of late, which have naturally been gathering pace as the big event gets closer. To keep things manageable, I will focus in this post on developments in New South Wales, which is where most of the action has been.
Things have been particularly lively in the Liberal camp, where Scott Morrison finds himself in the thick of factional warfare between his centre right faction and its principal numbers man, Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, and an alliance of the moderate and the hard right factions. As Mike Steketee at the Saturday Paper relates, the latter have accused the former of obstructing the process so as to avoid rank-and-file ballots that may not go their way, potentially endangering Hawke himself. Steketee reports expectations that the end game will be a deal that leaves all sitting members undisturbed, with ballots to proceed in a number of important seats where it may have been prudent to have had candidates in place quite a bit sooner.
• Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph reports the failure of Scott Morrison’s seemingly desperate attempt to recruit Gladys Berejiklian in Warringah leaves Jane Buncle, a “high-flying junior barrister who believes in climate change”, as the favourite to run against independent Zali Steggall. However, James Massola of the Sydney Morning Herald reported party polling tested the prospects of Berejiklian, Buncle, former Premier Mike Baird and management consultant Alex Dore (who according to the Telegraph is still considering running), and found only Berejiklian would win the seat.
• In a particularly helpful account of the broader state of play, Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports three candidates have nominated in Parramatta, which the party is hopeful of knocking over with the retirement after 17 years of Labor member Julie Owens. These are Maria Kovacic, co-founder of Western Sydney Women; Felicity Findlay, acquisitions manager for property investment firm Merc Capital; and Charles Camenzuli, engineer and unsuccessful candidate for the seat in 2010 and 2019. Silmaris notes the party has extended nominations in the hope that a stronger candidate might come forward. Former Parramatta councillor Martin Zaiter is “being wooed”; efforts to interest Geoff Lee, who holds the state seat of Parramatta, have come to nothing.
• One of the preselection challenges Alex Hawke is keen to head off is that against Environment Minister Sussan Ley in Farrer, where she is threatened by Christian Ellis, a public relations specialist who has made a name locally campaigning for water rights. Linda Silmaris’s report says “Mr Ellis’s supporters believe their candidate has the numbers, triggering panic among those backing Ms Ley”.
• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected to run against Labor member Susan Templeman in Macquarie, where she fell short by 371 votes on her first attempt in 2019.
On the other side of the aisle:
• Sarah Martin of The Guardian offers a revealing account of the complex state of play in Labor’s preselection for Parramatta. Local branches are dominated by the soft left faction associated with Laurie Ferguson, which duly favours a rank-and-file ballot. However, the faction is split between supporters Julia Finn, member for the state seat of Granville, and Durga Owen, criminal lawyer and Western Sydney University lecturer, neither of whom are “seen as acceptable to the federal executive”. This would appear to include Anthony Albanese, who may be about to sanction a push for the executive to take matters into its own hands due to familiar concerns about branch stacking. Albanese’s own branch of the Left favours Abha Devasia, legal director of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union. However, the Right seemingly wants in as well, demanding compensation for the selection of the unaligned Daniel Repacholi to replace Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter.
• Also noted in Sarah Martin’s article is that a rank-and-file ballot to choose Sharon Bird’s successor in Cunningham is expected to be won by Alison Byrnes, a staffer to Bird and the wife of state MP Paul Scully.
• Labor’s candidate for Lindsay, which Melissa McIntosh won for the Liberals from Labor in 2019, will be Trevor Ross, a firefighter of 36 years.
USA: Most Federal Reserve officials signaled Wednesday they were prepared to raise their short-term benchmark rate at least three times next year to cool high inflation.
As expected, officials also approved plans to more quickly scale back its pandemic stimulus efforts in response to hotter inflation, opening the door to rate increases starting next spring.
Fed officials voted to hold rates near zero on Wednesday, but the latest projections are a significant shift from just three months ago. In September, around half of those officials thought rate increases wouldn’t be warranted until 2023.
It is the latest sign of how an acceleration and broadening of inflationary pressures, together with signs of an ever-tighter labor market, is reshaping officials’ economic outlook and policy planning.
Officials in their postmeeting statement described their goal of inflation moderately exceeding their 2% target as being met and said they would keep rates near zero until they were satisfied labor market conditions were consistent with maximum employment.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-project-three-rate-rises-next-year-and-accelerate-wind-down-of-stimulus-11639594785?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Talking of inflation, from the ‘Evening Standard’ ..
‘It won’t be the parties or vaccine passports: inflation will get Boris Johnson in the end’
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/lockdown-parties-vaccine-passports-inflation-boris-johnson-plan-b-b972103.html
Observer says:
Thursday, December 16, 2021 at 12:01 am
My wife has informed that she thinks she heard the prime minister of the Nation promoting reverse mortgages to retirees
My view is that reverse mortgages will result in a scandal of very significant proportions
The combination of unknowns being property valuations because despite current circumstances property valuations can and do fall, lender realisation costs upon calling in the loan because the Mortgagee will act to realise, the term of life of the borrower aligned to the term of occupation of the property (noting some are forced to assisted living and the complications that introduces including a joint proprietor remaining in the family home) because both exacerbate the reverse compounding equation courtesy of the period of time and to where interest rates trend to over the period of time noting the current cycle will correct at some point dictated to by inflation which drives interest rates (and governments fuelling inflation as we saw with Howard and Costello)
Simply, without any capacity to service the loan even on an interest only basis (hence availing of reverse mortgage products), exposure to the equations of the foregoing will end in disaster
The lenders will protect their position – exclusively
They are not lending to support a borrower who wishes to live outside their income and their circumstances
They are predatory lenders zeroing in on people wishing to live a lifestyle in advance of their circumstances and their income
Then you get to the beneficiaries under the Will, there being a secured creditor taking action to realise on the real estate asset – so mortgagee auction?
The beneficiaries subservient including in regard the Personal Covenant clauses in the mortgage document so acting against the Estate over and above the mortgaged real estate – the Executors being served at Court so accruing costs they have no control over as defendant
Against a lending corporation with deep pockets (and tax deductibility)
Plus the emotion – given the next generation are aware of what their parents have entered into
Better people look to down size on their own terms and conditions to realise on equity
And live within their income, not in excess of their income
Which brings into focus what happens when the borrowed money runs out – which it will do if you are spending in excess of income
The mortgagee will have an interest in repairs and maintenance (to retain valuation) and in the property being insured (noting the mortgagee)
All up a recipe for disaster – and promoted by none other than the prime minister (who perhaps should stick to his religious pulpit)
A recipe for disaster because the borrower has no rights (except to spend the borrowed money on life style, a life style outside their means hence borrowing to support it)
And that is just for starters
And then you get to the bullshit windy rhetoric of the federal treasurer – a very dangerous individual
===================================
Morrison was talking about the Pension Loans Scheme so nothing much to do with your post.
As to your view about reverse mortgages (I have no connection to that market), while clearly not suitable for everyone, they provide a good solution for some people. Obviously the capacity to service the loan is irrelevant and lenders take this into account with very conservative valuations of properties, not providing mortgages in all locations, and the amount they are willing to loan (eg. up to around 30% of valuation at age 80) so the risk of the mortgage becoming a problem in relation to the value of the property is virtually non-existent.
I recently helped the parents of a friend to take one of those (they have no interest in your suggestion that they should downsize from the house they’ve been living in for about 60 years). Lender valued the property at 25% below independent valuation, younger spouse is 86, lender only agreed to 30% of valuation (which also meant better interest rates), which was more than enough in this case. Very little, if any, risk to these people, the paperwork is pretty simple and clear.
Anyway, as far as I’m aware Morrison has not promoted private sector reverse mortgages at all, there‘s plenty of other (real) stuff to have a go at him for.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Niki Savva writes that disaffection and the rise of independents makes for a hard-to-predict poll.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/disaffection-and-rise-of-independents-makes-for-hard-to-predict-poll-20211215-p59hnd.html
Shane Wright has more on the analysis of rampant rorting, this time for the seat of Lindsay.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tapping-the-pork-barrel-millions-poured-into-key-western-sydney-seat-20211203-p59enx.html
Australian democracy has been resilient since federation, but bribery is growing unchecked like a political weed, spreading so fast it could smother Parliament House in lantana, writes David Crowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-s-grants-analysis-reveals-a-system-for-taxpayers-that-must-change-20211215-p59hs5.html
Taxpayer money is for public benefit not for buying votes, write Catherine Williams and Stephen Charles. They say that recent revelations confirm, yet again, why the Government’s proposed Commonwealth Integrity Commission is entirely unfit for purpose.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taxpayer-money-is-for-public-benefit-not-for-buying-votes-20211215-p59hnf.html
The SMH editorial says that Australia can’t afford politically biased grant funding.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-can-t-afford-politically-biased-grant-funding-20211215-p59hxm.html
Anthony Albanese has “put the prime minister on notice” that Labor will establish an anti-corruption commission that will examine the alleged pork-barrelling of federal government grant programs.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/15/future-corruption-watchdog-would-investigate-coalitions-alleged-pork-barrelling-of-grants-albanese
Kaye Lee correctly says that integrity means far more than just not engaging in criminal conduct.
https://theaimn.com/integrity-means-far-more-than-just-not-engaging-in-criminal-conduct/
David Crowe tells us that a rapid recovery from the pandemic will help create 1 million jobs over the next four years in a new forecast from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg that will shape an election contest with Labor on economic growth and the pressure on wages. We’ll see, Josh.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/truly-stunning-1-million-jobs-to-be-created-over-next-four-years-federal-government-promises-20211215-p59hvw.html
Sarah Martin reports that Josh Frydenberg, will reveal in today’s mid-year budget update that Australia’s unemployment rate will fall comfortably below 5% next year as the economy continues to rebound.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/15/federal-budget-update-josh-frydenberg-forecasts-unemployment-rate-to-fall-to-under-5
The Coalition and Labor alike have embraced “off-budget” spending that magically doesn’t hit the bottom line, but the NSW controversy is a warning shot before the federal election, writes John Kehoe.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/charade-of-political-free-money-is-finally-being-exposed-20211214-p59hb9
Militarisation has become a means of promoting economic welfare, and the ‘defence industry hub’ in Geelong is just the latest such project, explains William Briggs.
https://johnmenadue.com/government-chooses-jobs-and-growth-over-peace-with-defence-spending/
Advice from the state’s top doctor is at odds with the government’s decision to ease restrictions on wearing masks, with Kerry Chant urging people to keep wearing them amid warnings NSW could hit 25,000 cases a day by January. It is clear that vaccination alone is insufficient to acceptably manage Covid.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/plea-to-wear-masks-get-booster-shots-as-cases-skyrocket-20211215-p59htb.html
Australia’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout was shemozzle. Robin Boyle reviews where we failed.
https://johnmenadue.com/a-curates-egg-the-many-failures-of-australias-vaccine-rollout/
Christopher Knaus reports that almost 3,000 children have been hit with hefty fines of up to $5,000 for minor Covid breaches in New South Wales, prompting a furious response from legal groups, who say the punishments are crushing disadvantaged families. This is crazy, given how totally relaxed the rules have just become in that state.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/16/almost-3000-children-in-nsw-hit-with-fines-of-up-to-5000-for-minor-covid-rule-breaches
John Lord bemoans that those who follow politics will acknowledge that the country’s political establishments, conventions, and political truth have been devalued and run-down to the point of being unrecognisable to the constraints we had but a generation ago. He hands out a few suggestions for Labor to use in the campaign.
https://theaimn.com/this-might-help-labor-win-the-must-win-election/
Alan Kohler explains why Donald Trump should make us thankful for the Australian Electoral Commission.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/12/16/australian-electoral-commission-trump-kohler/
Meanwhile, NSW Liberal MLC takes unerring aim at the states electoral commission. It looks like it’s a bit of a mess.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/incompetence-of-nsw-electoral-commission-a-risk-to-our-democracy-20211212-p59gwz.html
Lisa Visentin looks at what will and will not be covered by the new eSafety Commissioner whose powers come into effect next month.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/only-the-most-serious-of-abusive-posts-captured-by-adult-cyber-abuse-scheme-20211215-p59hx7.html
Clancy Yeates reports that Westpac chairman John McFarlane says he shares the intense frustration of shareholders over the bank’s poor results and has vowed to revive its performance, as investors delivered a hefty protest vote over its executive bonuses. Strike one was delivered.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-cops-first-strike-on-executive-pay-after-disappointing-year-20211215-p59ho9.html
Lisa Visentin writes that Attorney-General Michaelia Cash has cast doubt on any deals with moderate Liberals to fast-track protections for gay students alongside the religious discrimination bill, and instead re-committed to a year-long review process.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/attorney-general-michaelia-cash-says-religious-discrimination-bill-and-protection-for-gay-students-are-separate-issues-20211208-p59fqs.html
Michaelia Cash appears to have reneged on a deal with Liberal moderates on religious discrimination, revealing broad protections for LGBTQ+ students will have to wait for 12 months, writes Paul Karp.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/15/michaelia-cash-says-some-reforms-to-protect-lgbtq-students-face-year-long-wait
Australia is suffering from a lack of journalistic integrity with many news outlets bowing down to the Liberal Party’s agenda, posits Dechlan Brennan.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mainstream-media-is-morrison-governments-puppet,15855
They sure were feeding the chooks last night. Rupert Murdoch’s The Australian went live with its “exclusive” story at midnight: “Covid-19, NDIS, in $50bn blow to mid-year budget”. Michael West takes a light look at the Morrison government’s media and marketing tactics.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/banquet-of-the-chooks-myefo-budget-leaks-gobbled-up-in-media-feeding-frenzy/
A disappointing media diversity report was predictable and largely unhelpful. Andrew Podger tells us how to address the genuine problems with the Australian media.
https://johnmenadue.com/australia-doesnt-need-a-royal-commission-to-fix-its-broken-media/
The shortage of urea, the chemical compound of which the diesel exhaust fluid AdBlue is made, threatens Australia’s entire transport sector. It’s being driven by some of the key factors that have bedevilled global supply chains since the onset of the pandemic, explains Stephen Bartholomeusz.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/supply-chain-blues-adblue-crisis-a-symptom-of-larger-problems-in-the-world-economy-20211215-p59ho6.html
In Victoria, Henrietta Cook reports that tenants fed up with faults in their homes are pursuing legal action against landlords at record levels, with applications for urgent repairs almost doubling over the past three years.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/surge-in-legal-action-against-landlords-over-repairs-20211215-p59hp1.html
Disadvantaged students are falling drastically behind their peers in literary and numeracy skills, with Year 9 students more than four years behind their most advantaged peers in reading in both NSW and Victoria.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/disadvantaged-students-years-behind-in-reading-numeracy-naplan-shows-20211214-p59hdf.html
Australia could become the hottest place on Earth in the next week, with temperatures predicted to soar to 50 degrees in some parts of the country. A mix of an “exceptionally hot air mass” and a lack of cloud cover over north-western Australia will bring “severe to extreme” heat in coming days, forecaster Weatherzone reports.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/weather/2021/12/15/australian-weather-heat-record/
Conservative backbenchers are out of touch with the public — and fully removed from reality, opines Martin Kettle.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/15/conservative-rebels-dangerously-out-of-step-public
About 30% of American adults say they do not have a religious affiliation, according to a new study exploring the growing secularization in American society. In 2007 the number stood at just 16%.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/15/us-religious-affiliation-study-results
Frequent “Arsehole of the Week” nominee Salim Mehajer’s western Sydney mansion that once featured in a rap video is about to hit the market after he lost a legal bid to stop it being sold from under him.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/salim-mehajers-opulent-western-sydney-mansion-will-soon-be-up-for-sale/news-story/66cd2eb60315dba37f21f9ede64bba6e
Cartoon Corner
Cathy Wilcox
David Rowe
David Pope
Matt Golding
Mark David
Warren Brown
A gif from Glen Le Lievre
https://twitter.com/i/status/1471005997766373377
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Niki Savva points out an issue that has been noted by others: the challenge for the govt to appeal to moderate Liberal voters in metro areas while cozying up to Hanson and Palmer folk in regional areas.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/disaffection-and-rise-of-independents-makes-for-hard-to-predict-poll-20211215-p59hnd.html
Thanks BK. Today’s Rowe is just so spot on!
Confessions @ #5 Thursday, December 16th, 2021 – 6:50 am
‘Liberals could lose some of their best and brightest male MPs..’
Best and brightest Liberals.
So funny.
From The BBC – Covid: New UK cases record as Whitty warns worse to come
‘The UK has recorded the highest number of daily Covid-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic, with 78,610 reported on Wednesday’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59673150
At the PM briefing earlier, Prof Chris Whitty predicted NHS manning rotas would fall over as NHS workers got sick (along with everyone else), but BJ said ‘No’ to any extra restrictions
UK Cases are going bonkers.
Australian cases going bonkers.
USA cases going nuts!
When will the west learn!
Mundo
Morrison shake and bake , staring the corona virus down is not working
It would be inconsistent with the idea of a Federal ICAC being “independent” if it took its marching orders from the government of the day – eg with a significant basis for its investigations being pursuit of political opponents, following the model of the partisan Abbott inquisitions. However I didn’t read Albo’s comments as saying any more than a Federal ICAC would have legal power to investigate matters such as the rorting of taxpayer funds, whereas under the Scomo model those matters would not be within its jurisdiction:
“I put the Prime Minister on notice that a national anti-corruption commission will be able to look at the sports rorts program and these rorted programs of taxpayer funds.”
I’m 100% in favour of the Federal ICAC being able to investigate partisan misuse of Federal grants, including the most recent evidence of such conduct from LNP governments.
Today is the anniversary when Morrison fled to Hawaii during the bushfires
Well done David Crowe to call it “bribery” . It has been giving me the shits seeing journos and pollies call it by all sorts of euphemistic terms. It’s not just ‘pork barrelling’ or ‘bias’, it is corruption. The corruption of good governance . It is using taxpayers $s for personal gain.
poroti says:
Thursday, December 16, 2021 at 7:26 am
Australian democracy has been resilient since federation, but bribery is growing unchecked like a political weed, spreading so fast it could smother Parliament House in lantana, writes David Crowe.
Well done David Crowe to call it “bribery” . It has been giving me the shits seeing journos and pollies call it by all sorts of euphemistic terms. It’s not just ‘pork barrelling’ or ‘bias’, it is corruption. The corruption of good governance . It is using taxpayers $s for personal gain.
————————————-
Will the same corrupt lib/nats propaganda media outlets still support the corruption of the lib/nats during the 2022 election , yes they will
mundo
The scary part is they might be their ‘best and brightest’ . We could end up with a room full of ‘Brother Stewies’ and Barnabys
”
Advice from the state’s top doctor is at odds with the government’s decision to ease restrictions on wearing masks, with Kerry Chant urging people to keep wearing them amid warnings NSW could hit 25,000 cases a day by January. It is clear that vaccination alone is insufficient to acceptably manage Covid.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/plea-to-wear-masks-get-booster-shots-as-cases-skyrocket-20211215-p59htb.html
”
In that Press Conference where Hazzard said that the COVID cases/ day by end of January, 2022, could be 25000, Kerry Chant clearly said that she advised Government for more restrictions instead of easing the restrictions and it is Government decision to ease restrictions. Do you Remember when asked that question during Gladys time, she tried to talk around that point and some members especially CC of PB used to explode on her Press replies.
Also do you remember, as per news reports during Gladys time Dom P and Hazzard belong to “let it rip” group.
Morning all.
Thanks, BK.
Thanks for all the responses to Log4Gate last night.
24 hours since moderna booster and only very slightly sore arm.
There should be an inquiry into this c/-Lawyerly
“‘Troubled’ judge won’t sign off on Woolworths class action settlement
Saying it will only benefit the law firm and lead applicants, a judge has refused to approve a settlement in an underpayments class action against supermarket giant Woolworths, which would see no pay-out to employees.”
Interesting comment from Nikki Savva’s article today on Palmer and his impact:
“Highlighting the realignment, Labor’s internal polling shows Victoria – thanks to longer lockdowns and vaccine mandates – is today Palmer’s strongest state and also Labor’s strongest state on a two party preferred basis. He has ripped away votes from everyone, but more from the Coalition than Labor.”
250,000 jobs a year over 4 years
In a population of 25 million
And unemployment below 5%, with no mention of underemployment
Plus wages to increase, so reversing an 8 year trend and at above the rate of inflation, which is the requirement for economic growth?
Will the Federal Government be making a submission to Fair Work Australia?
Because that will be the measure
And I stand by my analysis of the “reverse mortgage” industry
A key question is why is the money required – and how long will the “sugar hit” last?
In life everyone has wealth, the challenge being not to over commit but equally not to under achieve – so a fine line of discipline
Plus the impact of compounding (not compounding debt)
Interesting too is that the Fed Reserve announcement was as 2.30PM and equity markets have bounced post that announcement
Also from the Savva article:
“Despite Morrison’s problems, there is no confidence in Labor that victory is assured and zero expectation that if they do win it would be as handsome as John Howard’s 45-seat majority in 1996. It is shaping as a narrow win at best, given the number of seats held by the Coalition on high margins which would require massive swings to fall.
As one Labor MP put it, if Labor wins “it will be a squeaker””
max
A much more sensible attitude than hoping for a landslide!
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Like you, I find Josh Frydenberg’s claims of economic nirvana unbelievable, certainly in the next six months. Omicron alone will see to that.
Assuming competent government ( 🙂 ) and a recovery from Covid with booster dose vaccinations well managed, employment should recover to pre-covid levels. That will look like success but it is really a “dead-cat-bounce” unless wage growth increases. It has been disastrously low for years. One of the Coalition’s main objectives in “opening up” is to recommence importing low skilled immigrants on categories of visa that give them no workplace rights, ensuring wage pressure remains downward not up.
Otherwise when you look at the fundamentals – education and investment to improve productivity – where is the wage growth coming from?
The Washington Mini-bar bill should blow out the Balance of Payments and should be included in the latest forward estimates.
The increased sales of natural gas and iron ore will hardly cover the shortfall.
What a pathetic sight for the nation with its third world DPM stuck in a hotel room during a pandemic because he’s trying to tell the internet not to tell the truth!
Lots of pointers to the fact that Morrison’s government promises a lot, but rarely provides it. Would be interesting to learn the whole list. This includes the reported bribes, which haven’t all been achieved. Yet MPs such as Tim Wilson are spruiking them as successes. Liars, the lot of them.
A man who is reportedly a senior member of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has been charged with four counts of fraud after a police investigation into election funding.
Queensland Police arrested the “financial administrator for a political party” after raids on his Hamilton home in Brisbane and an office at Holt Street, Eagle Farm on Wednesday morning.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party’s Brisbane office is located on Holt Street.
Media have reported the 22-year-old is the party’s national executive treasurer Alex Jones.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/one-nation-treasurer-charged-with-fraud/ar-AARPtRJ?ocid=st
The Poll Bludger surf report from Coogee:
22° and high cloud. Sun peeking through.
Surf Flat. High tide. Quiet. No doubt later…
Socrates @ #12 Thursday, December 16th, 2021 – 8:02 am
‘I find Josh Frydenberg’s claims of economic nirvana unbelievable’
The bullshittsunami just needs to convince enough gullible voters.
Which it will.
Boerwar
Good to hear you are doing well with booster shot
Doctor Handsome is an arrogant little twerp, isn’t he?
liberal Party state government declares another liberal party state government a risk
Tasmania declares Sydney ‘high risk’
max @ #10 Thursday, December 16th, 2021 – 7:55 am
Truly amazing really.
Arguably the worst fucking 9 years of government in living memory and the best Labor can hope for is a ‘squeaker’
Of course, in reality we’re only 9 years into a tory run of Menzian proportions.
There’ll be no squeaking.
Scott @ #12 Thursday, December 16th, 2021 – 7:16 am
That’s all they’re talking about in the supermarkets around the country I hear.
Meanwhile this is what our esteemed herald sun dishes up today. They together with the fiberals and the rest of the media have sabotaged Victoria from the get go. Pathetic.
Political games at the expense of the health and well being of the people they pretend to care about.
——
Virginia Trioli
I’ll have something to say about this today on @abcmelbourne – why would you argue against cheap, easy, effective masks now? @theheraldsun @kprather88 @linseymarr @MatthewGuyMP @MartinFoleyMP https://t.co/AOwlb7gvp1
lizzie @ Thursday, December 16, 2021 at 8:15 am
Dr Nick Coatsworth is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Lizzie
Is he still advocating that covid is not airborne.
I guess he is another shameless idiot.
Mundo,
Woke up on the wrong side of bed? Seriously, omicron will show up the Federal Morrison government on both health and economic measures.
Dr Nick Coatsworth has not done a dress up stunt for a while
Masks are actually the cheapest and easiest line of defence we have.
And in response to the reporting that UAP are doing well in Victoria.
How stupid can people be. Who would be following the likes of two overweight unhealthy bloated fat cats such as Craig Kelly and Clive palmer.
How much self loathing does one have to want to support such horrible excuses of human beings.
It is gobsmacking to me
Victoria
No, Coatsworth has moved on to mocking the AMA, whose members are concerned about lack of support from the C’wealth.
Right when boosters are being recommended, they cut the funding.
Everything they touch…
Where is your EMRS poll of Tasmania voting intentions, released last week ?
I would donate, but you are not on the ball and it is often
Mundo:
Truly amazing really.
Arguably the worst fucking 9 years of government in living memory and the best Labor can hope for is a ‘squeaker’
Of course, in reality we’re only 9 years into a tory run of Menzian proportions.
There’ll be no squeaking.
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Yes, if you had just arrived from another planet, it would seem amazing that the coalition would be remotely electable. We know though that Australia’s default political settings at a Federal level are a notch to the right, and along with low political engagement in the population, that’s enough to make Federal Labor governments fairly uncommon.
At the same time I suspect that the “squeaker” line is about avoiding been seen as hubristic etc:. Also about underpromising and overdelivering. My feeling is that the odds of Scomo being reelected either in majority or minority are less than 50% this time with the odds of an ALP majority government maybe 30-40%.
lizzie says:
Thursday, December 16, 2021 at 8:01 am
max
A much more sensible attitude than hoping for a landslide!
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I hope for a landslide of epic proportions but I don’t think we’re going to get it….1983 was the nearest the Federal ALP has had to a landslide post war, and even that was more modest than the big coalition wins in 1966, the mid-seventies, and 1996.
Nick Coatsworth always was a narcissist. He is now generally despised as a less that useful pawn for the Scum-suckers amongst the ID community.
max
Mind you, they absolutely deserve a landslide. They are a pack of dishonest grifters.
If the federal election is a squeaker, then I’d expect the incumbent LNP government to be returned.
If Labor wins it will because the accumulated toxicity of the last 8.5 years of a rolling shitshow has caught up with Morrison. That and Albo being perceived as a safe pair of hands.
I’m not overly concerned about the margins from the last election in the seats that I think will be in play: much of that – at least in Queensland – was due to an anti southerner / anti bill Shorten / anti Greens (take your pick) backlash. Take Forde, based on Logan south of Brisbane. Now with a comfortable margin on paper, but for all purposes very much a winnable seat for labor.
Allied to the peculiarities of Queensland was the anti tax and regulation scare campaign that Shorten and the ALP National campaign exposed itself to: these snuffed out labor’s remaining hopes of getting across the line in at least half a dozen seats outside Queensland: ie. Robertson, Lindsay, Reid, Chisholm, Bass, Braddon, Flint’s seat, Perth.
However, if in 2022 support for the government – which seems to have collapsed in a pretty sustained fashion at the moment – doesn’t rise and Morrison’s artful campaign ‘against the Labor government’ trick of 2019 doesn’t bite – then I’d actually expect a 2-3% nation wide swing manifesting in 8-10%+ swings in some of those marginals.
All of which underlines the strategic strength in Albo’s position: the Morrison government – its inadequacies, its sleaziness, its lack of capacity to navigate us in the near to medium term – they ARE the No.1 election issue. The No.2 issue is for labor to project a sense of hope on all those points and packaged in a ‘safe pair of hands’. having half a dozen themes / policies is sufficient to focus that sense of hope in an alternative Labor government in the campaign, especially in the all important ‘low information / low interest’ voters in the targeted marginal seats.
It must infuriate both the LNP and their left wing proxies in the Greens that Labor is refusing to bite on any potential wedge issue.
UK Cartoons:
Lizzie/rhwombat
Yep Coatesworth is a bona fide narcissist.
How I miss the days he would appear on my TV screen doing his bit for the fed govt.
My whole family would cringe in unison.
Those were the days. Lol
This is interesting …
Nascent signs of genuine democracy at last. But in the midst of it, Morrison seems to be having a Bowen moment …
Even so, Labor doesn’t seem all that confident …
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/disaffection-and-rise-of-independents-makes-for-hard-to-predict-poll-20211215-p59hnd.html
If you want your vote to count, vote Independent.