Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Slight improvement in the Coalition’s voting intention numbers, but Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to track down.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 53-47, in from 54-46 three weeks ago. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 44% and up two on disapproval to 52%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady on 37% and up two to 48%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has been cut from 48-34 to 46-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1524.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 31
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  1. Paul Kelly says that if the Glasgow climate summit was about saving the world, it failed.

    Or as they say over at his Rupertarium. “Mission Accomplished” .

  2. Others are beginning to realize that Labor’s #MehToo strategy may not be enough to get them across the line …

    https://johnmenadue.com/labor-must-be-more-spirited-for-voters-to-know-what-it-stands-for/

    Voters should never be in any doubt about Labor’s general approach and aspirations in any area of government activity.

    But they can now be excused for being thoroughly confused about what Labor stands for, or about its abiding ideas. It might be nice to think that Labor deserves office simply for not being led by Morrison, or being influenced by the ideas and philosophy of the National Party.

    There’s a case for that, but, alas for those who think so, it is an idea more powerful among those already predisposed to voting Labor, rather than among those who have previously supported the Coalition.

    Labor will not win the election with cheerio calls. Nor with vague, but “moderate” appeals designed, through focus groups, not to actually offend anyone. Most of Labor’s policies on the national security state, on boat people, and on welfare fraud have been designed to mirror the Coalition’s approach, rather than to signal any points of difference of philosophy or policies.

    Labor’s follow-the-leader policies on defence and foreign affairs, its adoption of the nuclear option without anything passing for debate, the implicit copying of policies of much-reduced aid and remaining unpopular in South-East Asia have been strongly (and rightly) criticised by Paul Keating.

    I would add climate change to the list of Labor’s “follow-the-leader” policies.

    If you are tired of Labor’s “follow-the-leader” policies, vote Independent.

  3. poroti

    It’s interesting that opinions are divided between failure and success. Some people are clinging to cup half full beliefs as success.

  4. P1

    If you are tired of Labor’s “follow-the-leader” policies, vote Independent.

    ___________________________________

    I’m tired of this fucking corrupt joke of a government. Voting independent will just get more of it.

  5. There has been a lot of debate on here about the rise of China and more recently about what Keating has said about.

    Recently posted were two links to the published letter from Keating to the SMH. I don’t normally cut and paste large extracts – but I think this bit is worth posting with kudos to the NewDaily and Keating and apologies to William.

    ———————————-
    I had this to say: “A lot of attention has been given to America’s responsibility to China’s rise – but China too has equal responsibility for creating a new stable and sustainable order in Asia. As it steps up to a larger leadership role it will at the same time need to be willing to accept and respect restraints on the way it uses its immense strength, because the acceptance of such restraints by great powers is the key to any successful and durable international order”.

    I then went on to instance two points.

    I said, first, and most obviously, “China should continually reaffirm by word and by deed its commitment to repudiate the use or threat of force to settle disputes”.

    I went on to say, “the work of reassurance is never done, that the stronger China becomes the more it will need to reassure its neighbours and this will depend on deeds more than words”.

    Second, “China will do a great deal to help build a continuing stable order in Asia if it quite unambiguously welcomes and supports a continued strong role for the United States in Asia”.
    —————————

  8. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Tuesday, November 16, 2021 at 11:51 pm

    I doubt that Morgan Victorian poll because Andrews is nowhere near as popular as he once was.
    _____________________
    Agree. I noticed a change around the time of all the “I don’t recalls” to the Hotel Quarantine inquiry late last year.


  10. Player One says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 8:49 am
    ….
    If you are tired of Labor’s “follow-the-leader” policies, vote Independent.

    Or to put it another way. “If your tired of a party with a well developed method to develop policy, a well developed policy document and are too dam lazy to read it, vote for someone with no policy and no party structure to develop policy”.

    Boy some people post high level rubbish.

  11. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 9:05 am
    lizzie @ #752 Wednesday, November 17th, 2021 – 8:45 am

    It gave me a real lift this morning when Albo announced Labor would extend fibre to the home. Something solid to celebrate.
    The announcement also lays a trap for the Coalition because, how can they complain about the cost when they have blown out the cost of FTTN by double the original estimate?

    ___________________________________

    Not to mention the lived experience of Fraudband. People don’t always know what connections they have, but they will be happy with a party that promises to provide much better broadband.

  13. TPOF @ #810 Wednesday, November 17th, 2021 – 9:08 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 9:05 am
    lizzie @ #752 Wednesday, November 17th, 2021 – 8:45 am

    It gave me a real lift this morning when Albo announced Labor would extend fibre to the home. Something solid to celebrate.
    The announcement also lays a trap for the Coalition because, how can they complain about the cost when they have blown out the cost of FTTN by double the original estimate?

    ___________________________________

    Not to mention the lived experience of Fraudband. People don’t always know what connections they have, but they will be happy with a party that promises to provide much better broadband.

    Labor has offered the voters much better broadband before. The voters turned them down twice.
    They need to be reminded that they would have had fibre now if the coalition had not made such a mess of it.

  14. “The actual number is 1,482,923. That’s the number of first preferences the Greens received in the House of Reps at the 2019 Election”

    So it includes say labor supporters wanting to send a message (and even then it isn’t really a loud enough message to be worth sending) .

    They fact there are very few seats where the greens even bother to run more than a token campaign.

    I live in the mortage belt and even when the greens manage to have a person or two with HTV at the booth it will be people who needed to use gps to find the booth.

    I’m pretty sure in thirty years I door knocked and talked to more voters in my suburb than the entire green army

  17. TPOF @ #763 Wednesday, November 17th, 2021 – 9:08 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 9:05 am
    lizzie @ #752 Wednesday, November 17th, 2021 – 8:45 am

    It gave me a real lift this morning when Albo announced Labor would extend fibre to the home. Something solid to celebrate.
    The announcement also lays a trap for the Coalition because, how can they complain about the cost when they have blown out the cost of FTTN by double the original estimate?

    ___________________________________

    Not to mention the lived experience of Fraudband. People don’t always know what connections they have, but they will be happy with a party that promises to provide much better broadband.

    Especially when America has just been promised much better broadband. It’s getting to be really embarrassing now to see where Australia is falling down to on the ranking tables. The Coalition policy almost seems designed to eliminate the possibility of high tech businesses in Australia and thus enable our continued reliance on digging shit out of the ground instead.

  20. “ Andrew Tillett writes that Defence officials are weighing up whether Australia will need a new conventional submarine to avoid a capability gap while the navy waits for a fleet of nuclear-powered boats to be delivered. This could include building an updated version of the navy’s Collins-class submarine in Adelaide by the government-owned shipbuilder ASC with support from the submarine’s original Swedish designer, Saab Kockums, according to multiple sources. Son of Collins lives!
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/submarine-taskforce-mulls-son-of-collins-before-nuclear-boats-arrive-20211116-p59995”

    _____________

    A son of Collins, or as it was actually referred to early in the Sea 1000 planning phase, an ‘evolved Collins’ would be an excellent idea … were this 2011 … a decade later and … its too late, far too late for that.

    FFS, putting Dutton and ScoMo to the political sword in the next 6 months will pave the way for the (re) discovery that we have a mature and genuinely next generation – superior and conventionally powered submarine program … ready to go … and perhaps with the application of some genuine diplomacy … a willing prime contracting partner to make it all happen (ie. 4 to 6 boats operational to at least replace Collins) before 2040 … And for the record and completion … I note THAT is the same prime contracting partner that is ideally placed to help Australia pivot to the most modern and sophisticated SSN submarines in the world … if that is actually a thing and not merely a Morrison marketing scam … Facepalm.

    The main reason why its too late to contract with Kockums as the prime contracting partner NOW is that Kockums (or SAAB as it is now known) is that the Swedes haven’t built a sub for well over 20 years. Nor has the ASC (although the ASC rebuilds each Collins boat every 7 years). The ‘son of Collins’ would either use the Gotland/Collins class or the A26 as its design reference point. The former now being a 40 years old design and the later still in the ideas phase (there is no mature and finalised design, the A26 has not progressed beyond the stage that the Attack class design was back in 2016). In both cases the design reference point would have to be significantly upscaled to fit the basic Sea 1000 specifications.

    The situation was completely different back in the period 2009-2014: during that period Kockums had merged with ThyssenKrupp Marine and via that partnership could offer three designs for evaulation: an evolved Gotland/Collins class, the A26 and the German Type 216. Moreover the germans were then – as now – still heavily involved in the submarine building business. Even Kockums had only just ceased direct boat building in that period. Therefore there was the relevant corporate knowledge and industrial heft for the merged entity to be the preferred prime contracting partner.

    There is no point going back to either the Japanese or Germans now: neither showed any real interest in meeting the evaluation’s program wide specifications in the competitive evaluation process back in 2015/16: they would have delivered boats and perhaps spare parts, just not the program knowledge so that we had a sovereign capability into the future. As the French Ambassador made clear in his recent Press Club address: thats what the RAN was acquiring from the French – all their secrets and the transfer of all the IP so that we had the sovereign capability to sustain the program for its entire 50 year lifespan.

    Just think about that last aspect for a moment and ask yourself: is that transfer of IP likely to happen with either the Brits or the Americans in any SSN program? In my view there is not a snowflakes chance in hell: we will be totally at the mercy of either for the duration of the program: which I suspect is the point of it all – it locks us into any military (ie. American) adventurism that happens over the next 50-70 years. No questions ever asked. What a catastrophic situation for a sovereign country to place itself in: as we are presently witnessing with Dutton’s ‘inevitability’ position regarding war with China over an internal Chinese matter.

    I note that last point was the first point that PJK made in response to AUKUS, much to C@t’s derision at the time. Now only two months later and here we are, talking about the inevitability of war.

  22. Ven @ #795 Wednesday, November 17th, 2021 – 9:36 am

    ”
    If a Labor campaign cannot cause any enthusiasm or aspects of a mass movement among younger voters, Labor is doomed to lose the next election, argues Jack Waterford.
    https://johnmenadue.com/labor-must-be-more-spirited-for-voters-to-know-what-it-stands-for/
    ”

    Is Waterford mundo?:-)

    No but Mundo did live for a short while in a place called Waterford QLD 🙂
    This Waterford fellow makes a lot of sense.

  23. C@t, agreed but it’s good to see. Gist of the ad was Morrison’s Mistakes, focuses on his Hawaii mistake and Vaccine mistake, we can afford to have any more like this. A bit low-key for my liking.

  24. ‘In a different time a more spirited Labor, particularly a confident Labor leadership, would be taking advantage of the opportunity provided by a pseudo-“freedom” debate to defend and promote the organised activity of the whole community as against the cult of individualism, choice and markets that has reduced and debased the quantity and quality of services available to citizens.’

    This is good stuff from Waterford.

  27. ”
    In a courtroom and in politics, you don’t ask a question if you know you won’t like the answer. Maybe that’s why the Coalition government hasn’t asked Treasury to model climate change costs., says Michael Pascoe.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/11/17/michael-pascoe-useful-idiots-climate-lie-carbon-price/
    ”

    Pascoe wrote:
    “Even the government’s dodgy, rent-an-answer, net-zero modelling had to contain a carbon price of $24 a tonne to get within 15 per cent of what the government wanted to hear, as Richard Denniss has explained.

    The irony didn’t escape the Australian Financial Review’s Jacob Greber:

    “The stunning and politically explosive concession… reveals every household may need to pay a carbon price equivalent of more than $1400 a year.

    “That’s because the full reduction in net emissions by 2050 that Morrison and Taylor promised the world at this month’s UN climate summit in Glasgow requires a carbon price of $80 a tonne, according to the model.

    “Clearly, for the Coalition, such a price is completely politically untenable. Which is why the government’s plan is modelled on a far less threatening price of $24 a tonne.

    “The irony? Gillard’s short-lived carbon price – before Tony Abbott’s government legislated to abolish it – began at $23 a tonne.”

    The joke within the lie that is Mr Morrison’s “technology not taxes” campaign slogan is that the confessed $24 carbon price is “voluntary” – it’s what corporations and individuals will volunteer to pay because we’re nice and care a bit about the future when the government does not.
    ”

    Pascoe concludes by writing:
    “And perhaps what’s most depressing is that the Australian electorate is so gullible as to have fallen for the cheap politics, the Big Lie.

    We can’t handle the truth.

    We’re useful idiots, too.
    ”

    So another big lie of LNP like Trump Big lie was swallowed by Australia public Hook, line and sinker. They believed it because they want to believe it.

  28. “Nah, the CPRS would have us in a worse position than we are even now under the Coalition had it ever been implemented.”

    The CPRS would have reduced a total 459 tonnes by 2020 from reports if it had been implemented and kept. What we have now is no carbon pricing policy at all under the Liberals.

    Sadly, it could remain that way. A combination of a deal with the Greens and the Liberals scare campaign has made pricing carbon emissions toxic with voters.

    Its going to very difficult for Labor to do a pricing carbon emissions policy for the next election. Of course we will hear the usual rhetoric from you about Labor being the same as the Liberals which I just switch off.

  31. Ven says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 9:52 am

    If they really wanted to use technology they should use FTTP and not Fraudband.

    Selective bullshit from Marketing Man

  32. Any minute now, we’ll have Morrison waddle out and tell that he will be continuing the LNP policy of providing the entire country with fibre to their premises and that it has always been their policy. And the media will be bowing to his genius and throwing rose petals in his path. It’s so fucking predictable with this nation of brain-dead, racist pissants.

    Any minute…

  33. ”
    Christopher Naus reveals that the prime minister’s department breached freedom of information law by dragging out a request for internal documents about the alleged rape of Brittany Higgins, prompting the regulator to warn it to urgently fix its “compliance with the FOI act”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/17/prime-ministers-department-breached-foi-laws-over-release-of-brittany-higgins-documents
    ”

    Like Trump reduced august office of US Presidency to a gutter level position is Morrison doing the same? How is he upholding the most powerful leadership position in this country to integrity? Is there anything Prime ministerial in what he does everyday?

  35. Roy Orbison says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:03 am
    . It’s no fucking predictable with this nation of brain-dead, racist pissants.
    _____________
    Gee calm down there Roy. If Morrison agrees to invest more into BB surely that’s good for everyone.

  36. If everyone stays where they are, war is not inevitable.
    If they comrades decide to take parts of Kashmir and parts of the Arunchal Pradesh by force or if the comrades decide to take Taiwan by force, or if the comrades decide to take the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands by force then we have war.
    War is NOT inevitable.

    Will it happen?

    You would have to ask Xi. BiTB would know but he does get grumpy when asked where the comrades will stop China’s borders in the current phase of expansion. He starts talking cultural sensitivity.

    I was very impressed by the quality, the energy, and the fervour of the clapping for Xi at the CPC plenary. It was back to the glorious days of comrades Stalin and Mao.

  37. “A son of Collins, or as it was actually referred to early in the Sea 1000 planning phase, an ‘evolved Collins’ would be an excellent idea … were this 2011 … a decade later and … its too late, far too late for that.”

    Respectfully AE, i am going to disagree somewhat. Collins are going to get an LOTE, and SAAB are the obvious ones to be involved in that. Also, that leverages off the work they have been doing on the Gotland as part of the A26 development. The Swedes have a lot of experience cutting up subs and putting them back together….which has always struck me as laughably non-sensical but apparently is safer than “patches”that can be cut out for big work. 🙂 With the LOTE going ahead “evolved Collins” is a live option i reckon, particularly if the JOBS in SA !!!!! thang is a factor.

    Germans probably not…..yup they are building boats but have had some real problems keeping them running of late. Japanese actually competitive again with them launching LIB powered boats but honestly, maybe as a component supplier rather than whole boat?

    Technically the best solution would obviously be Attack class boats modified with LIB (lead acid being overtaken very fast with a Quad partner actually having LIB boats in the water and in build??) and maybe with provision for an AIP plug section fitted later. That gives us new boats of a size and range we want @1/2 the crew needs of a nuke.

    And, an easy lead into French nukes (with their LEU reactors) later if we still see a need.

    All that said it would take a truly MIGHTY effort by an incoming 1st term Albanese govt to get agreement on that from the French. Morriscum and his merry band of fuckwits have bollixed that to a fare the well. Not that i would discount it completely, but fwark its pushing LNP shit uphill to get there. 🙁

    Anyway, whatever happens Collins LOTE is going to introduce quite a bit of new tech into what is currently a very useful boat. I think that by the time its defined it will include LIB batteries (and those diesels are definitely getting the flick!! 🙂 )…and maybe an AIP module in one or two boats for shits and giggles?? I know the RAN has never liked them and its possible LIB makes them obsolete in some ways but an interesting debate still to be had i reckon.

    Will watch all with interest.

  40. lizzie at 8:52 am
    Yes indeed, definitely quite a contrast between some of the optimistic assessments and the gloomy ones. With so many pollies and the wangling and compromises the final declaration probably had something for everyone. What , if anything, was achieved is likely not clear for some time.

  41. Hi imacca

    I hear what you say about Saab Kockums … but it is simply not that straight forward I fear. Especially as it is soon 2022 and there is no time to waste. If Kockums were still a merged entities with ThyssenKrupp then I think it would be much more straight forward process.

    Li batteries have come a looong way for submarines applications, very fast. The fears over runaway cascading lithium battery fires circa 2014-16 have apparently been addressed sufficiently that four separate navies (Japan – boats already in the water, Germany – boats being currently manufactured and converted, the Italians and India – next year) are currently adopting them for their SSKs. The French offered them for the block 2 build of the attack class and even the block 1 build were designed ‘for but not with’ both Li batteries and fuel cell AIPs. I have been criticised on You Tube (lols I know) for suggesting that in fact the final design specifications for the Attack class block 1 actually incorporated both technologies (Cleary the CEV specifications and initial contract didn’t include them, BUT the guy who does the ‘Sub Brief’ You Tube Video – who works in the industry and has extensive contacts with Naval Group flat out stated that the French had included both in the last designs for Block 1, so there is that).

    Contrary to the conclusions reached on three separate occasions over the life of the Collins, in my view there seems to be an overwhelming case for the inclusion of next generation AIPs: they are non mechanical, fuel cells that only use the two important liquids that all SSKs need – liquid oxygen and deisel fuel. They work as complementary technology to the inclusion of Li batteries: the combination of which give 3 weeks submerged operational capacity between snorts and the extra potential energy for sustained fast running during that period. Real game changers, especially for our principal strategic use of SSKs – sea denial in all those littoral water strategic pinch points from the Philippines and South China Seas down through the Indonesian and Melanesian archipelagos and into the Air-Sea gap to our immediate north.

  42. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:18 am

    What does Readers Digest tell you Boer?
    ————————
    What is your best guess?
    Will the comrades attack?

  43. The pathetic liberals, so spectacularly compromised by Barnaby and the Nationals pre Glasgow don’t have the fortitude to sack Morrison and replace him with either of the alternative desperates.

    The Liberals are pathetic but they would be even more pathetic chopping down another Prime Minister. I really don’t think the Liberals would have ‘fortitude’ making a move like this.

    Lets be honest compared to the Hawke/Keating/Howard era. The last 10 years or so have been amature hour in terms of Prime Minster changes. I suspect history will judge politicians harshly involved in this era.

  45. “All you’re doing with statements like that is giving free and reusable ammunition to the Labor Right of PB, who will gleefully bookmark it and quote it five years from now saying “Look! Here’s an example of Green opinion!” I’m sure that isn’t what you want, but it’s going to be the result.”

    ***

    Good. The more people that learn the undeniable truth about Joe Biden – that he is a mass murdering war criminal who is responsible for the invasion of Iraq – the better. The unhinged part of all this is the absurd notion that a Senator is somehow not responsible for how they vote or for the consequences of that vote. Please bookmark it and share as widely as possible.

  47. WeWantPaul says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 9:15 am

    “The actual number is 1,482,923. That’s the number of first preferences the Greens received in the House of Reps at the 2019 Election”

    For the most part, these voters have been suckered by the Junk Left…by imposters and ratbags, hoping to disrupt Labor and, implicitly, to abet the re-election of the reactionary LNP.

    These voters have been well and truly conned.

  48. “but calling him a mass murderer is as unhinged as claiming John Howard was responsible for the Port Arthur massacre. (Yeah, I remember those CEC flyers.)”

    ***

    Just had to add: Howard is certainly not to blame for Port Arthur, that’s just absurd.

    However, like Biden, Howard is most certainly a mass murdering war criminal, so he should be locked away with Martin Bryant and the rest of them. That is where he belongs. Forever. No exaggeration.

  49. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, November 17, 2021 at 10:40 am

    In all things, in all places, and at all times…..a Distractionary campaigns for the reactionaries.

  50. Pundits:

    “Labor took too many policies to the last election! They were too bold. You can’t win govt from opposition doing that, ask John Hewson (but don’t ask Gough Whitlam).”

    Also Pundits:

    “Labor is being too small a target! No one knows what they stand for or what their policies are! You can’t win govt from opposition doing that, ask Kim Beazley (but don’t ask John Howard).”

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