Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll adds another increment to the rise of “others”, while Scott Morrison’s personal ratings take a knock in Essential Research.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.

Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.

The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.

There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.

There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 12 of 20
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  1. Coorey also writes that an increasingly vicious war of words between Scott Morrison and Labor is set to intensify today with the Prime Minister set to claim the Opposition is the enemy of manufacturing.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-and-morrison-trade-blows-as-scare-campaign-escalates-20211111-p5987m

    Morrison is sounding increasingly shrill and unhinged. His actions are starting to be questioned by commentators who would normally be considered sympathetic to the Liberal Party.

    If nothing else, it will be interesting to see how his Liberal Party colleagues react over time, not to mention Barnaby’s mob.

  3. It’s ‘Whataboutism’ Time with Earlwood, I see. 🙄 😆

    You just can’t handle anyone attacking your cosy shibboleths and paragons, built up over a lifetime of fealty, can you, Earlwood?

    So instead you come out with a risible attack on someone who has achieved more than you ever will by going, ‘Jake who?’ That’s just pathetic.

  4. SMH Comment gem:

    “ wokkaquokka30 MINUTES AGO
    Reporter: Whats your favourite lie that you’ve told in public?
    Morrison: “I’ve never lied”
    Reporter: “Thats my favourite too”

  5. Dear C@t and AE

    Disagree on policy by all means you two, but a personal request from me to stop making it personal between you.

    Thanks in anticipation.

  6. The real question is when will Australia abandon the United States, align it’s security and economics and join in a pact with China.

    Australia doesnt need to join a pact with either. We should be focussing on closer relations with our immediate region; Pacific, Indonesia, SE Asia more broadly. Australia will still have some traditional deep ties to the US and even the UK. And probably even some military ties to the US for some time to come.

    But I agree with Keating in that increasing military ties with the US (to the point of possibly losing sovereignty over our own hardware) as a direct and showy counter to China is troubling. Morrison doesnt do nuanced diplomacy. Instead, his loud domestic political bluster threatens our security rather than strengthens it.

  9. The real question is when will Australia abandon the United States, align it’s security and economics and join in a pact with China.

    Currently Australian of Chinese descent stand at 1.3 million. about 6% of the population.

    Probably in 20 years the issue will be ripe for discussion at least.

    The inference here is that the subliminal allegiance of these Australians lies with China. This is an insult to these Australians, who have the same sense of commitment to our sovereignty and national self-determination as other Australians. The inference made is Sino-phobic, essentially.

  10. What will Albo’s answer being when the $200K+ tradie pops up during the campaign asking about how much tax they will pay under Labor?

    You just made me remember the exact moment as an 18yo when I decided quit my job as a electrical/comms trainee (6 weeks in) and decided to go to Uni instead. F’ing tradies.

  11. A logical person could also argue that within 20 years the Indian-Australian population will make up a greater proportion of Australians, therefore it would be a smart move to now engage in closer ties with India.

    And, as they are not an aggressor nation, a smarter move.

  12. Singing Bloos @ #559 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 10:43 am

    The real question is when will Australia abandon the United States, align it’s security and economics and join in a pact with China.

    Currently Australian of Chinese descent stand at 1.3 million. about 6% of the population.

    Probably in 20 years the issue will be ripe for discussion at least.

    The inference here is that the subliminal allegiance of these Australians lies with China. This is an insult to these Australians, who have the same sense of commitment to our sovereignty and national self-determination as other Australians. The inference made is Sino-phobic, essentially.

    And it is exactly the argument made on QandA last night by the Chinese-Australian academic. She said it was insulting to people like her whose allegiance was firmly with Australia and not China.

  15. Very big surges in prices are being observed in all kinds of commodities, manufactures and services. The immediate affects are to increase profits and depress real wages. The responses of monetary and fiscal authorities will be to tighten credit and public spending, and this will register in bonds, property, equities and jobs.

    There will be political repercussions wherever these economic processes affect living standards and household security….could very likely affect the results of our election.

  16. Ven @ #558 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 9:43 am

    When I pointed this to Victoria yesterday after her projection that Biden will be remembered like FDR, there was silence om this blog.

    If Biden gets blamed for inflation then…the US deserves whatever crackpot they elect next, I guess.

    Crazy inflation is the inevitable result of QE Infinity. Wasn’t started by Biden. And nobody seemed to care particularly much during the run-up, so kind of hypocritical of them to act like they care now.

  17. Ven @ #558 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 10:43 am

    ”
    A surprise inflation jump in the US is disastrous news for Joe Biden and the Democrats, writes Matthew Knott.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/surprise-inflation-jump-disastrous-news-for-joe-biden-and-democrats-20211111-p597w7.html
    ”

    When I pointed this to Victoria yesterday after her projection that Biden will be remembered like FDR, there was silence om this blog.

    Probably because it’s ridiculous to think that this post pandemic bout of inflation is exactly the same as previous periods of time when inflation was a problem. It’s not the same. In fact, an article in the new York Times recently laid out why it isn’t and if I can find it I will post the link to it.

    Not to mention that the Fed has tools to fight it, with interest rates at record lows.

  18. C@tmomma @ #561 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 10:45 am

    A logical person could also argue that within 20 years the Indian-Australian population will make up a greater proportion of Australians, therefore it would be a smart move to now engage in closer ties with India.

    And, as they are not an aggressor nation, a smarter move.

    An even smarter move would be to understand that in 20 years time, with no fossil fuel export industry, no manufacturing industry, no education industry, no tourism industry, and continually ravaged by the worst effects of global warming, Australia will be a mendicant nation relying heavily on the goodwill of others.

    Perhaps we should just start being nicer to all of them?

  19. When I pointed this to Victoria yesterday after her projection that Biden will be remembered like FDR, there was silence om this blog.

    If you are on the blog for positive feedback then you will need to open a sock puppet account.

  22. Inflation here is likely to bust through the RBA target next qtr. Big questions on how this is managed. I am sure Morrison has a bag full of lies and a brochure for that.

  23. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 7:44 am
    The PM’s ‘can-do’ climate capitalism won’t work without a price on carbon

    Because, isn’t that the essence of Capitalism? Putting a price on things?
    ”

    Putting price on things is real capitalism. What we have in this country is Crony Capitalism.
    For example, giving billions of dollars to companies whose revenue went up during Pandemic in Jobkeeper payments is one of them.
    Awarding government contracts to maaates without tender is another.

  24. Simon Katich says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 10:55 am
    Inflation here is likely to bust through the RBA target next qtr. Big questions on how this is managed. I am sure Morrison has a bag full of lies and a brochure for that.
    ________________________
    So YOUR getting into the forecasting business?

  25. It is possible that Coorey has been shamed into better journalism. Or he is so shocked by Morrisons governing that he has turned a corner.

    It is more likely he just sniffs in the wind that he needs a couple of semi balanced articles to counter the avalanche of pro LNP ones so he can look himself in the mirror.

  26. C@t

    Mr Sullivan’s declaration that America is “not going anywhere”

    😆 😆 Ah the number of dead or ex leaders who have been given that line .

  28. As far as I’m concerned we should be as neutral as possible.
    What possible benefit to us is the current belligerent attitude to China?
    I can think of no conflict we’ve been involved with since world war two that had any real benefit to Australia or that we had any business being involved in.
    I exclude peace keeping but even then think we should be careful in that regard.
    We are geographically isolated, under no immediate threat. Our military strategy should be purely based on defending Australia.

  29. ”
    lizziesays:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:00 am
    Is James Paterson an example of these “fresh new faces” in preference to the “tired old political hacks”? Heaven forbid
    ”

    Doesn’t Patterson external appearance remind you of how the SS officers in old war movies were portrayed?

  30. The gold price has been falling, however. That is, it’s been moving in the opposite direction to other commodity prices…illustrating that gold is not really the hedge against inflation it’s often declared to be. Maybe it will revive and start to climb again. But the earlier very fast increase in the gold price occurred when other prices were falling and when the global economy was contracting. Weird thing, gold.

  31. Re tradies listening to Hadley or music etc…

    Hadley is a grandfather and fills his timeslot with a lot of localised trivia that is of little interest to a younger audience.

    When driving, I will switch between ABC Canberra local radio (painful presenters), local redneck radio (Hadley) and QBN FM a community station based in Queanbeyan that plays various styles of music according to the interests of its volunteer presenters.

    The nature of tradie cohort is also changing, with more female tradies. For example, a girl in the neighbourhood has just started her apprenticeship as a mechanic working on EVs. The world is changing whether the RW dinosaurs realise it or not.

  32. So YOUR getting into the forecasting business?

    Ha! I am not joining tenuous dots of predictions to justify an incorrect statement. You could have accepted your error as pointed out by many. It makes you stronger.

    CPI qtrs (excluding volatile items) of 3.1 and 2.5. With US inflation and what I know of materials and services in my sector it will be hard going to keep inflation in the 2-3 target.

  34. GoldenSmaug says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 11:00 am
    As far as I’m concerned we should be as neutral as possible.

    Neutrality is not consistent with the ability to defend the territory by ourselves unless were willing to spend 8-10-12% of our GDP on military projects and, probably, to breach the NNPT.

    We need allies, or at least one strong co-defender, if we are going to be able to defend ourselves and our interests. And we do have interests. In particular we have an interest in peace in the region in which we are located. We have an interest in free navigation. We have an interest in the rules-based order in general.

    There is security in multilateral mutual defence systems. We benefit from these. We should – and we do – contribute to them as well.

  35. As a relief from politics I watched some of Bert Newton’s funeral broadcast.
    Amazing how many of the attendees think that chin covering and nose protrusion means they are adequately masked.

  36. Singing Bloos @ #580 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 10:03 am

    The gold price has been falling, however. That is, it’s been moving in the opposite direction to other commodity prices…illustrating that gold is not really the hedge against inflation it’s often declared to be. Maybe it will revive and start to climb again. But the earlier very fast increase in the gold price occurred when other prices were falling and when the global economy as contracting. Weird thing, gold.

    Bitcoin/cryptocurrency is the new hedge. Gold is passé.

  37. ar

    Crazy inflation is the inevitable result of QE Infinity. Wasn’t started by Biden. And nobody seemed to care particularly much during the run-up, so kind of hypocritical of them to act like they care now.

    I’ve been waiting for the magicking up of many $Trillions out of the ether to have some dire effect. Strangely the practitioners of the Dismal Science seemed to have been very ‘relaxed and comfortable” with it. I am sure they will explain what happened with their traditional 20/20 hindsight.

  38. ”
    lizziesays:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:48 am
    Luke Henriques-Gomes@lukehgomes
    Scott Morrison asked by Neil Mitchell if he’s ever told a lie in public life. “I don’t believe I have, no.”

    This is not the only strange belief that Scotty holds.
    ”

    When asked by Jerry Seinfeld how to best a lie detector because George does it.
    George replies “If you believe ot is true then it is true”
    🙂

  39. Labor has tried to put a price on carbon twice. The first time the Greens and the LNP defeated Labor and set in motion processes that led to the toppling of Kevin Rudd. The second time, Julia Gillard made a pact with her mortal enemies and set in motion processes that led to her own defeat and the restoration of reactionary government.

    Labor broke even in 2010 and lost in 2013, 2016 and 2019. In each election carbon pricing was a campaign feature. Clearly, Labor cannot muster a majority and enact a carbon price by itself. It will be defeated in an election or in the Senate if it tries. So the ruling party – the LNP – will have to do this if it is to happen at all. Sad but true. Labor does not have the electoral solution to this problem, which has been exploited successfully by the reactionaries for most of the last 25 years.

  40. lizzie at 11:12 am

    As a relief from politics I watched some of Bert Newton’s funeral broadcast.
    Amazing how many of the attendees think that chin covering and nose protrusion means they are adequately masked.

    I have been taking wearing it in that style as a sign of either a) Dumb arse b) Arsehole covid skeptic deliberately doing it as an FU to the rules. The entertainment ‘industry’ would be full of a,b and a+b .

  42. Interesting angle.

    simon holmes à court
    @simonahac
    ·
    1m
    little known fact: if you shut down a smelter in australia and moved it to china, you’d reduce global emissions.

    the emissions intensity of china’s grid and emissions per capita are lower than ours.

    this is the advantage that @ScottMorrisonMP & @HonTonyAbbott squandered.

  43. “the emissions intensity of china’s grid and emissions per capita are lower than ours.”

    This is totally illogical… per capita is a useless measure… what counts is net emissions on CO2.
    If China’s CO2 due to electricity generation & distribution / Kw is less than ours well yes it pays to move production.. if not it’s just plain stupid.

    PS my new fantastic MacBook Pro has aluminium body.

  45. Singing Bloos @ #589 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 11:20 am

    Labor has tried to put a price on carbon twice. The first time the Greens and the LNP defeated Labor and set in motion processes that led to the toppling of Kevin Rudd. The second time, Julia Gillard made a pact with her mortal enemies and set in motion processes that led to her own defeat and the restoration of reactionary government.

    Labor broke even in 2010 and lost in 2013, 2016 and 2019. In each election carbon pricing was a campaign feature. Clearly, Labor cannot muster a majority and enact a carbon price by itself. It will be defeated in an election or in the Senate if it tries. So the ruling party – the LNP – will have to do this if it is to happen at all. Sad but true. Labor does not have the electoral solution to this problem, which has been exploited successfully by the reactionaries for most of the last 25 years.

    Bingo.

  46. Ven @ #588 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 11:16 am

    ”
    lizziesays:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:48 am
    Luke Henriques-Gomes@lukehgomes
    Scott Morrison asked by Neil Mitchell if he’s ever told a lie in public life. “I don’t believe I have, no.”

    This is not the only strange belief that Scotty holds.
    ”

    When asked by Jerry Seinfeld how to best a lie detector because George does it.
    George replies “If you believe ot is true then it is true”
    🙂

    A bloke who believes in a sky fairy can also believe he hasn’t lied.

  48. Taylormade says:

    Wow. That’s massive.
    ———————————-

    Not as massive as your next song about Labor under Daniel Andrews leadership getting re-elected at the upcoming Victorian State Election

  50. citizen @ #551 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 10:36 am

    Coorey also writes that an increasingly vicious war of words between Scott Morrison and Labor is set to intensify today with the Prime Minister set to claim the Opposition is the enemy of manufacturing.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-and-morrison-trade-blows-as-scare-campaign-escalates-20211111-p5987m

    Morrison is sounding increasingly shrill and unhinged. His actions are starting to be questioned by commentators who would normally be considered sympathetic to the Liberal Party.

    If nothing else, it will be interesting to see how his Liberal Party colleagues react over time, not to mention Barnaby’s mob.

    ‘His actions are starting to be questioned by commentators who would normally be considered sympathetic to the Liberal Party.’
    Time for Albo to fire-up.

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