Seemingly nothing doing on the polling front this week, though I would have thought we were due the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. That may yet come – perhaps even very shortly – given the publisher’s unpredictable past treatment of it. I need a new post sooner than that though, so here are some relevant recent developments:
• Anthony Albanese has reportedly told his party to be prepared for the possibility that Scott Morrison will call an election for December 11 after he returns from the Glasgow climate summit early next month. Andrew Clennell of Sky News describes this as a “ploy”, and says the genuine view within Labor is that the election will most likely be held in March. Kevin Bonham notes that the proximity of this date to Christmas and New Year would complicate the protracted process of Senate counting, and that it would not allow time for new laws requiring registered parties to have at least 1500 members to take effect.
• The Victorian Supreme Court has thrown out a legal challenge against the Labor national executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch’s federal preselection process. This had been pursued by the factional bloc of the Right associated with Bill Shorten, which The Age reports is considering an appeal. Assuming the ruling holds, it confirms the preselection of former state party secretary Sam Rae in the new seat of Hawke, and allows the party to proceed with other federal preselections that have so far been in limbo.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports that candidates for Liberal preselection in Hughes are likely to include Jenny Ware, moderate-backed director of legal services at Georges River Council, and that there is also likely to be a factional conservative in the field. This complicates matters for Melanie Gibbons, who will quit her state seat of Holsworthy to run, and has the backing of Scott Morrison.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• There is now a fifth state by-election on the way in New South Wales, and the first in a Labor-held seat, after Jodi McKay announced her intention to resign five months after losing the leadership to Chris Minns. This will create a vacancy in her seat of Strathfield, which she held at the 2019 election by a 5.0% margin. Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports potential preselection candidates include Sravya Abbineni, multiculturalism adviser at NSW Government Health and former staffer to McKay; John Faker, mayor of Burwood; and Jennifer Light, the party’s national assistant secretary.
• The Nationals have preselected Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer, to succeed John Barilaro as the party’s candidate in Monaro.
• In addition to the previously noted Gail Giles-Gidney, the mayor of Willoughby, the Sydney Morning Herald reports candidates for the preselection to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Willoughby will include Tim James, factional conservative and executive general manager of the Menzies Research Centre.
Coorey in AFR (headline only).
Keep up the good work of destabilisation Barnaby.
Given the difficulties in getting tested in regional areas – Albury’s testing centres have been booked out after 10.30 am, with cars waiting since 6 am to get in – I would think NSW’s figures are lower than they should be.
Multiple reports of people waiting days for tests.
Victoria records 1,841 new local COVID-19 cases and 12 deaths as state nears vaccination target
There are now 22,598 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 175 people have died during the current Delta outbreak.
The new infections were detected from 78,928 test results received yesterday.
According to the latest Commonwealth vaccination numbers, 89.21 per cent of people aged 16+ in Victoria have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 69.28 per cent are fully vaccinated.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-20/victoria-new-covid-cases-vaccine-targets-melbourne-lockdown/100552372
lizzie
OMG ! It really should be in The Shovel.
.
Can anyone peek beyond the paywall to confirm that this article by Pru Goward is as batshit crazy as it appears to be?
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/don-t-underestimate-the-underclass-20211018-p5910c
”
WB:
There is now a fifth state by-election on the way in New South Wales, and the first in a Labor-held seat, after Jodi McKay announced her intention to resign five months after losing the leadership to Chris Minns. This will create a vacancy in her seat of Strathfield, which she held at the 2019 election by a 5.0% margin. Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports potential preselection candidates include Sravya Abbineni, multiculturalism adviser at NSW Government Health and former staffer to McKay; John Faker, mayor of Burwood; and Jennifer Light, the party’s national assistant secretary.
”
Now that Jodi Mckay has resigned her seat (nice work NSW Labor), we will have a by-election in Labor held seat. Since it is policy of NSW Labor not to contest upcoming by-elections why should there be any pre-selection for Labor candidate in Strathfield? If they are pre-selecting a candidate in Strathfield, why not in Holsworthy and Monaro? Is it because they are afraid they will loose in those seats? What is guarantee that Labor will win in Strathfield?
UK Cartoons:
Ben Jennings on the UK’s rising daily deaths from Covid:
Because I go to this site for the UK cartoons – here’s a quick sponsorship message:
Peter Brookes’s lates book for sale at
https://www.original-political-cartoon.com/cartoon-gallery/buy/desperate-times-by-peter-brookes/6399/
A sample
Ven
‘ Since it is policy of NSW Labor not to contest upcoming by-elections why should there be any pre-selection for Labor candidate in Strathfield?’
1. I doubt it’s policy. It’s more likely to be a seat by seat basis.
2. Labor should win Strathfield. It has a much lower chance of winning the others. Therefore Strathfield is worth the investment.
zoomster says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:00 am
Don’t ever become a lawyer.
The claim was that she quit ( I used the term bailed above as in bailed out) in order to protect her pension.
The section I directly quoted said that the relevant part of the legislation about losing the pension for serious offences applies even to members who have left – if charged for things they did while a member. So the claim was wrong.
zoomster says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 8:42 am
…I thought the whole premise was, however, that Marles wanted Mae preselected so that he was in a good spot to become leader himself.
_______________
No doubt he’s thinking about it in the medium to long term. The point is, he won’t help bring down Albo and install Shorten, he’s happy at the moment and if there’s a change, he wants it to be him not Littlefinger.
”
are handing over their climate demands but many senior members of their party and Liberals say the drawn-out negotiations will be damaging.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/nationals-net-zero-demands-include-a-new-coal-fired-power-station-20211019-p5914w
”
So the “damaging” backgrounding”on Joyce has started by you know who. He who should not be mentioned wouldn’t spare even Joyce.
Buce
You’ve misread the clauses. By quitting now, before charges are being laid or are about to be laid, she protects her pension.
The clauses are specifically referring to someone who has quit whilst charges are looming into their behaviour as an MP.
Gladys has a top flight lawyer, an expert in ICAC, advising her on a very personal basis.
She made it very clear that she didn’t want to quit.
Clearly the advice she’s received from her topflight lawyer is that she needed to go before there was any suggestion she was going to be formally charged with anything.
There are reasons for that.
How do you write on this topic and not mention the elephant. How do you get away with being a financial media outlet (or an economist at Ernst Young) yet blame the workers for all that ails the economy? How the F does this rag get away with a suggestion to ditch The Market as a way to deal with a labour shortage (you know, through pay incentives) and instead advocate gov incentives to right the ship!
Sure, “we need to tackle occupational and geographical mobility”. But how about we start with wage growth. Paying people properly with fair conditions for what is clearly a valuable resource (it must be valuable as the AFR spend so much time whinging about it). How about we start looking more deeply into productivity issues rather than just say the worker is lazy and, damn it, we have to pay them.
Too long Australia has relied on free resources. Digging stuff up and cutting stuff down. And if you read the AFR too much, you get the impression they would like human resources to also be free. Get the taxpayer to move people, get the government to help import foreign workers to help keep wages down? Well, bugger off. You want a highly skilled, mobile and flexible workforce – find a away to pay for it and find a way to give that workforce job security.
https://chaser.com.au/national/an-exhaustive-list-of-the-liberal-partys-corruption-over-the-last-7-years/?fbclid=IwAR0f7yKROqw7CYZxf2nwH8QAaBb4WvSO5uIwaIBVuHH01DgMcRaH-d_cAqw
EVERY.
Simon Katich at 9:25 am
When it comes to supply vs demand and prices they are true believers in ‘the economics’……………..except when it comes to we peasants.
Zoomster
“19AA Member or former member charged with or convicted of serious offence
(1) This section applies in respect of a person:
(a) who ceases to be a member while proceedings for a serious offence are pending against the person, or
(b) who ceased to be a member if proceedings for a serious offence are instituted against the person for conduct that occurred when the person was a member.”
Your claim:
“ The clauses are specifically referring to someone who has quit whilst charges are looming into their behaviour as an MP.”
(b) is quite clear:
“who ceased to be a member” – no reference to when they ceased.
“ if proceedings for a serious offence are instituted against the person for conduct that occurred when the person was a member.”
applies to serious offences when they were a member.
Quitting does not protect their pension.
Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:25 am
….
How do you write on this topic and not mention the elephant.
…’
Well, if you are a goldfish…
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:28 am
They’ve made up a new definition of corruption.
Just because you don’t like a policy doesn’t make it corruption.
A facinatee no doubt !
Is the facinatee from the underclass ?
Is it curable ?
”
zoomstersays:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:19 am
Ven
‘ Since it is policy of NSW Labor not to contest upcoming by-elections why should there be any pre-selection for Labor candidate in Strathfield?’
1. I doubt it’s policy. It’s more likely to be a seat by seat basis.
2. Labor should win Strathfield. It has a much lower chance of winning the others. Therefore Strathfield is worth the investment.
”
Do you the demography of Strathfield? It is predominantly middle-class and upper middle-class. Something similar to Drummoyne, Parramatta and Penrith and Holsworthy to an extent (what you call suburban seats in US ). All the seats I mentioned above other than Strathfield are Liberal held. So there is every possibility that Labor can loose Strathfield. If they win Strathfield and come close second in Holsworthy and Monaro it will be worthwhile result for Labor and shows that Middle class are willing to give a look at Labor in 2023.
Anyway what do I know when compared to people were/are closely involved in Labor or Liberal politicc.
Buce
OK, I found (b) very difficult to get my head around, but you’ve clarified it.
Thank you.
Buce has proven his point most excellently. I’m very pleased.
‘Bucephalus says:
Just because you don’t like a policy doesn’t make it corruption.’
——————————————-
Deflection from the most corrupt government since Federation.
The real question for you, personally, is this: Is it corrupt to act as routine apologist for the most corrupt government since Federation?
zoomster says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:22 am
“Gladys has a top flight lawyer, an expert in ICAC, advising her on a very personal basis.
She made it very clear that she didn’t want to quit.
Clearly the advice she’s received from her topflight lawyer is that she needed to go before there was any suggestion she was going to be formally charged with anything.”
You have no evidence that her lawyers advised her to quit.
Politically it is the only thing she can do because even if she is not charged the simple act of being enquired into by ICAC would be so politically disruptive to a Premier trying to do her job as to make remaining untenable.
Ven
You may be totally right, I know very little (deliberately) about NSW politics.
In my experience, however (purely Victorian, of course) these decisions were made around the perceived winnability of a seat, as by elections are much much more expensive than ‘ordinary’ elections.
Bucephalus @ #68 Wednesday, October 20th, 2021 – 9:02 am
We definitely need a definition for political corruption. Just quietly, I suggest we dont let you or the Coalition do the defining.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:38 am
And there you go – even you don’t know the definition of the word.
Buce
Gladys could have simply moved to the backbench, saying that she was waiting to see what the outcome was before making a final decision about her future.
It’s pretty clear that she was persuaded to quit against her own instincts.
It’s not the fact Goward has this attitude to the poor that is the surprise, but that she feels able to make her views so public.
Declan Martin’s Brighton campaign cost $1,750 (just under 10c per vote received).
Sometimes, I wonder what could have been if he were given the extra $100…
Simon Katich at 9:25 am
Increasing ‘productivity’ requires effort ,talent, skill and investment. Far too much like hard work for too many of our ‘management class’. Far easier to screw over employees and customers .
Lizzie says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:43 am
It’s not the fact Goward has this attitude to the poor that is the surprise, but that she feels able to make her views so public.
____________________
There’s no doubt the thirst for indentured servitude remains in some.
You can see it in the calls to drive young people into the fields to pick fruit.
Or conscript them into the Army to create an elite force of unmotivated and resentful youths.
”
zoomstersays:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:38 am
Ven
You may be totally right, I know very little (deliberately) about NSW politics.
In my experience, however (purely Victorian, of course) these decisions were made around the perceived winnability of a seat, as by elections are much much more expensive than ‘ordinary’ elections
”
I failed to mention that all the 6 seats I mentioned i.e. Strathfield, Holsworthy (Menai), Parramatta, Penrith, Drummoyne and Monaro were held by Labor till 2011.
Gladys did not have to quit, she could have stepped aside and lingered on the back bench whilst the investigation was being carried out.
Neville Wran did this back in the day.
One can only assume that she’s read the tea leaves and decided to bow out with dignity relatively intact, before an “adverse finding” from ICAC forced her to resign.
Corruption definitely needs to include ‘pork barrelling’.
I still think an election this year is unlikely. The earliest that it can be held now (given the 33-day minimum campaign and the need to hold it on a Saturday) would be 27th November, and surely waiting into December would be pushing it – 11th December would be the latest election date since 1975 (13th Dec, and of course that came in extraordinary circumstances), and the only federal elections after the first weekend in December since WW2 were in 1961, 1955 and 1949.
December elections used to be fairly common, but we haven’t seen one since 1984 (1st), and given that December is normally a pretty busy time for people, given the lead-up to Christmas, and this year, post-lockdown, it will probably be more so. It’s hard to see any government gaining any electoral advantage by forcing people to the polls in that month, especially given that the election does not need to be held until well into next year.
And there lies the fundamental reason why I think a 2021 election is unlikely. Governments call elections when they think they can win, and the evidence for a second Morrison election win is currently pretty thin on the ground. There might or might not be some sort of polling trend toward the government over the next month or so, but that trend is not there yet, and so any rolling of the dice to call a December election would be a gamble. Morrison might be many things, but he’s not really a risk-taker, and so he will probably be thinking that his chances early next year will be higher, and certainly no worse than they would be this year.
I still think early March is the most likely date, but don’t rule out him waiting all the way until May if the government’s polling fortunes don’t improve before then.
Zoomster
ICAC destroys people’s careers including the innocent.
Look up these names:
Murray Kear
Stephen Pearce
Barry O’Farrell
Thanks again Alpha Zero for the UK cartoons.
This one is so true and points out that the business sector wants the certainty that only a government commitment to renewables can provide.
Morrison will be under intense pressure from industry, even if this fails to make headlines in the MSM. For every Twiggy, there will be many more lobbying every LNP politician.
https://twitter.com/RonniSalt/status/1450580217924182022
Buce
Still doesn’t explain why she quit rather than standing aside.
Innocent people tend to fight.
At least quitting to protect her pension made some kind of sense.
zoomster, maybe just stick to anecdotes from the Indi campaign?
nath
No, as I’ve often said, I’m here to test my assumptions. It’s much better to make my mistakes in relative anonymity than to stand up in front of a pack of journos (or nowadays, draft a pithy media release for the candidate…) and make them.
Unlike you, I don’t mind being shown to be in the wrong, because I know I don’t know everything and like to learn.
Sir Laurence Street* would have moved with quick dispatch on the Wran Royal Commission whereas ICAC moves very slowly stymied by modern day fairness requirements. Sir Laurence’s legal mind (arguably the greatest NSW has seen) was such that he could give a judgment off the cuff in most cases whatever their complexity. Street was appointed on 11 May, kicked off hearings on 16 May which ran until early July and delivered his report on or about 28 July all in 1983.
Operation Keppel kicked off hearing 12 months ago. The former Premier would have been on the back bench until well into 2022.
*Declare personal connection
Hello Ven. You are right about the suburb of Strathfield being a prestigious area with very expensive housing-it’s a strongly Liberal area. But that’s only one part of the electorate. Homebush & Flemington are much lower income areas which are strongly pro-Labor, Burwood is more of an inner west suburb and is pro-Labor, and I’d imagine those parts of the electorate south of the Cooks River would be very strong for Labor too. There will be a lot of voters of Chinese, Korean and Arabic ancestry in the electorate. The LGAs in the area were all hard lockdown areas. Who knows what the electorate thinks of Covid, the departure of Gladys and the emergence of Perrottet, there’s been no state level polling I’ve seen, but surely Labor holds this seat!
Re Hugo @9:49.
I agree. There are just too many uncertainties for a November-December election. Now 0f course Scotty would call an election for Christmas day if he thought he could gain from it – cost and inconvenience don’t come into it, he doesn’t care. But the election has to be called nearly 5 weeks out and there’s just too much that can go wrong in that time, not least another Covid outbreak. Then there’s also COP26. Even though the local mainstream media will be working for him, the international media won’t be.
Re Gladys – The word is that she quit (rather than stood aside) because she was planning to do so in January anyway. It would have been five ears in the job by then, the longest-serving premier since Bob Carr. Given that these ICAC allegations have come up just a few months before that, she may thought that she may as well pull the pin early. Zoomster’s view that she was protecting her pension may well have been a factor too, but it’s possibly a minor consideration of the timing of her departure.
Hugoaugogo says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 10:05 am
I’ve just shown that the claim she was protecting her pension is false.
‘Bucephalus says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:40 am
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 9:38 am
And there you go – even you don’t know the definition of the word.’
———————————-
Deflection. How does it feel to support the most corrupt federal government since Federation?
zoomster @ #55 Wednesday, October 20th, 2021 – 9:14 am
Yes, it is …
I presume this is some bizarre kind of satire. Surely no-one would write this as a serious piece of journalism. Or publish it as such.