Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. La Niña is in and the election is nigh.

    Cant see the chap waiting for late summer or early autumn. Too much can go wrong between now and then. The next 2 months are his zenith.

  2. In April, Guardian Australia first reported that Bunnings Warehouse was willing to host mass vaccination hubs at its stores.

    Bunnings’ offer has now been taken up by the Queensland government, as that state’s health authorities seek out ways to ramp up local vaccination rates that are trailing other jurisdictions.

    I’m betting there is a strong correlation between anti/ slow vaxers & Bunnings cohort;-)

  3. I’m not a great fan of Golf either. But Soccer enthusiasts are very annoying and defensive. If you have no interest in the World Cup they take it very personally.

  4. Lurker at 6:07 pm
    It’s what happens when, after being raised to believe in its divinity, your faith is questioned by a heretic 🙂

  5. Sceptic,

    I think there’s a stronger correlation with opportunity and vaccination. Those still to vaccinate aren’t so much the pro-virus mob as they are the don’t-really-care mob. If Queensland has enough vaccines to also start providing them to Bunnings, or if the vaccines are not being used up by the vaccination hubs, why not try at Bunnings too?

    But while I hope Bunnings jabs will work, I fear it will just be a minor boost. I try to stay away from Bunnings on a weekend. Our local Bunnings attract a bustling determined focussed bunch on the weekend, interested in getting in and out quickly to better enjoy the rest of their weekend. A Labor government moving into Morrison’s Bunnings space feels more like a deliberate election tactic than a public health service.

  6. Lurkie @5.58
    “I totally agree with Buce about Soccer and yearn for the old days when Soccer enthusiasts were routinely abused and beaten.”
    The bait always falls from the hook in the muddy waters.
    Shorten is destined for a cabinet position and will excel as usual.

  7. Bucephalus 21 at 6:19 pm

    The intolerance of those who demand tolerance continues apace.

    La belling one of your great loves, free speech, as “intolerance” ?

  8. John Le Carre’s final book is now out, called Silverview.

    The blurb goes – Silverview is the mesmerising story of an encounter between innocence and experience and between public duty and private morals.

    This bit certainly rings a bell –

    In this last complete masterwork from the greatest chronicler of our age, John le Carré asks what you owe to your country when you no longer recognise it.

  9. Lizzie at 6:19 pm


    He’s almost unintelligible too.

    Seems to be a common feature of chaps who went to St Ignatius, Gray,Tones,Barnyard 🙂

  10. Goll says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 6:24 pm

    Lurkie @5.58
    “I totally agree with Buce about Soccer and yearn for the old days when Soccer enthusiasts were routinely abused and beaten.”
    The bait always falls from the hook in the muddy waters.
    Shorten is destined for a cabinet position and will excel as usual.
    You said he was going to be PM for life with a 100+ seats. Albo will be looking to get rid of him ASAP.

  11. Lurkie @ 6.30pm
    “You said he was going to be PM for life with a 100+ seats. Albo will be looking to get rid of him ASAP.”
    That’s how to bait a hook.

  12. Bucephalus
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 5:02 pm

    frednk says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 4:25 pm

    “Job keeper has raided treasury to place money into private companies whose turnover increased during the pandemic; so poorly design the money can’t be recovered. Is that what you support? Capitalism is best when it is raiding the state?”

    It was a unique economic catastrophe we were facing. This is what Conservatives should keep their powder dry for – just like Howard gave Rudd a clean balance sheet to deal with the GFC.

    No one knew exactly what was going to happen but it was looking horrendously bad and a system based on forecasting is always going to be inaccurate. 20/20 hindsight is wonderful.

    Rudd built school halls, gave all a sum of money and insulated peoples home. Morrison gave away billions to large corporations. So that is what you support, ok, but don’t pretend it is noble.

    “Labor attempted to introduce a market mechanism to reduce carbon emissions 13 years ago. Are you against market mechanisms, or do not accept the science that climate change is man made?”

    I’m not going to rehash this in full here but just say nothing we or the rest of the world do will make any measurable difference.

    “What is your view on the BCA supporting the transition to a carbon free economy after years of ignoring the science?”

    They see the vast sums of taxpayers dollars being dolled out. If it was profitable it would have been being done already.

    “Do you support 5.5 million dollars being spent on a rifle range ( which in the end is what the NSW corruption inquiry is about). Is the capitalism you support raiding treasury for private gain by any means?”

    It’s not private gain – it’s a community facility – you can argue fir lots of different types and uses of community facilities. I need two artificial hockey turfs and a new rowing/canoeing facility built because they are things my family use. Win the argument.

    “Do you support the lack of the enforcement of building standards in NSW, buyer beware, it’s capitalism?”

    Clearly the NSW Building Certification system isn’t working adequately. It’s not whether it’s government or private – it’s about how compliance is enforced.

    The enforcement has been privatized and it has failed.

    “Were you against Labor opening up the countries commercial system in the 80s, is it protected capitalism you support?”

    Absolutely not. I was a huge fan of the floating of the AUD and the deregulation of tarrifs. China should be forced to go to a free float on their currency.

    “Conservative value, what exactly are they.”

    Self responsibility, the rule of law, the Limited liability company, minimum necessary regulation and taxation among others.

    “Bullying people that are a little different?”

    No. But I note that the Left and all the Identity Politics types are very strong on that.

    “Are you against Turnbull because he supported same sex marriage?”

    No. I voted for it as did many conservatives. I’m against him because he’s an arrogant dilettante who ignored the LNP Party Members.

    “Supported Howard because we wouldn’t let a few people get off the TAMPA?”

    Yep – they hijacked the ship when it said it was going to the next Indonesian port. We have a right to control border access, particularly from country shoppers who have passed through multiple safe haven countries already.

    Blimey have you got a distorted view of history.
    When a Norwegian freighter rescued 433 asylum seekers from a sinking vessel en route to Christmas Island, it sparked a crisis that led to hardline border policies and indelibly shifted the response to boat arrivals.

    “Do you support Howard because he lied about refugees throwing children overboard?”

    He didn’t.

    It is the issue that had me conclude the Liberals as a party are finished, for the lie to survive the defense force has to say nothing. It was an example of the Liberals undermining our institutions.

    “Do you support the Liberal party trying to undermine our institutions as they are with ICAC?”

    I believe ICAC is anti-democratic in the way it operates and destroys politicians without them being guilty of breaking the law.

    So the answer is, conservative values includes undermining our institutions .

    “You support the Liberals; what policies represent the version of consecutive values and capitalism you support?”

    Most of what they are doing in federal power now apart from the inefficient subsidies to renewables and the Snowy Hydro 2.

    Interesting response, thank you.

  13. Those Kiwis come up with some really clever gimmicks.

    Kiwis who’ve dreamed of sitting in business class are about to be given a shot.

    Air New Zealand will be transforming one of its Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets into a vaccine clinic on Saturday, the national vaccination day when the New Zealand government hopes to vaccinate as many Kiwis as possible.

    COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins teased some plans for the day being dubbed “Super Saturday” during a press conference on Wednesday, including the national airline’s involvement.

    The Dreamliner-turned-vaccine clinic will be located at Auckland Airport.

    “I’m told people will be vaccinated in business class before waiting out their time in economy class with snacks provided,” he said…

    Other initiatives included vaccination campervans heading up and down the country, and the Department of Conservation using its four-wheel drives and boats to distribute the jab to people in remote areas.

  14. I’m going to be very interested watching McGowan’s position change overtime with his threats today to impose new restrictions on WA and continuing to keep the borders shut.

  15. “Covid-19: Australia’s capital on track to become most vaccinated city in the world”

    There are a lot of bullshit figures being circulated in the media recently.

    Canberra is 61.4% fully vaccinated as a share of total population.

    Check out all the other places in the world where its a lot higher..

    Denmark 75, Malta 82, Portugal 86 (these are real, percentage of population figures).

  16. And she votes 🙄

    A woman charged with pretending to be a doctor and issuing 600 fake “medical exemption” certificates for COVID-19 “doesn’t believe she’s done anything wrong” and is “entitled” to issue the certificates, Queensland police say.

    The 45-year-old from Darling Heights in the Toowoomba region was arrested on Wednesday following a police raid at a Labrador home on the Gold Coast.

    Key points:
    * Police said the woman does not hold a medical doctorate and is not registered as a health practitioner within Australia
    * She was charging up to $150 for fake “medical exemption” certificates
    * She faces fines up to $10,000 and potential jail time

  17. So the announcement of 50 million vaccines and Australia leading the world in vaccinations (made during the development period by the pm of Australia with great fanfare) has now come to a shuddering halt with the Contract to supply those 50 million doses terminated

    So no more production from the Melbourne site the pm of Australia visited to make the announcement with great fanfare (has he otherwise been to Melbourne?)

    Meanwhile vaccines are required globally to protect the human race from this virus and mutations – and the human race includes those described as Australians

    What a debacle

    No wonder the Grattan Institute says “botched”

    And that is just for starters

    No wonder my International contacts are questioning me over the reputation Australia has bought on itself

    Australia is a laughing stock (and right up there with Johnson who at least has nailed the procurement and distribution of the vaccine and got the economic support package about right – but has failed everywhere else)

    I respond by referencing Hewson in that we have as pm a marketeer out of his depth (thank you John!)

  18. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 1:38 pm

    frednk says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 12:40 pm

    I doubt that there’s any point in trying to explain why Conservative values and capitalism have been the bedrock foundation of human progress since the Middle Ages.

    It’s not a religious thing as I’m an Atheist but I recognise the strong positive influence on Western Democracies of the Judeo-Christian beliefs.

    Mostly so-called Conservatives are simply Reactionaries by another name. They generally oppose modernising/humanist reform.

    The abolition of slavery was opposed by Conservatives. The adult franchise and the female suffrage were opposed by Conservatives. The application of one-vote/one-value principles in electoral apportionment and the conduct of elections were opposed by Conservatives.

    The legislation of minimum standards in respect of safety and the employment of children were opposed by Conservatives. The introduction of first an 8-hour day and then a 40-hour week were opposed by Conservatives.

    The introduction of universal aged pensions, the social provision of unemployment and sickness benefits and the social insurance of healthcare costs were opposed by Conservatives. The introduction of free, compulsory education was opposed by Conservatives. Even the introduction of minimum standards and public investment in water supply and sewage systems have been the subject of Conservative opposition.

    Conservatives have variously opposed the rights of women to receive an education, to enter the workforce, or remain in the workforce after marriage or to receive equal pay while they have worked.

    Conservatives are permanently opposed to the free organisation of labour.

    The list goes on.

    As for the influence of religious organs in the political domain….The religious institutions have usually been archly Conservative. They have been interested in their own privileges, power, property and immunities. They remain largely affiliated with reactionary parties and political agents. They have in particular opposed the free exercise women’s rights in respect of contraception and abortion.

  19. I don’t think McGowan is under any kind of political threat currently. The red-neck, talk-back radio brigade, and other malcontents, have tried the same “Emperor” McGowan approach on him as Murdoch has tried on Andrews….Little impact with thinking voters in WA…
    With ‘Emperor’ Colin the moniker did stick of course….much to the chagrin of the Liberal Party of WA……
    Meanwhile, the Liberal Party is in a to-the-death struggle between the few genuine Liberals left in WA, and the control exercised over the Liberal Party by those who belong to aggressive, fundamentalist Christian religious groups who currently run what remains of the s0-called Liberal Party of WA..
    Why would anyone vote Liberal while this death spiral is on……?

  20. The BCA, and now Twiggy Forrest. But what do we get from Scott Morrison? A barrel of pork for Barnaby Joyce.

    Frustrated mining magnate Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest has lashed out at Nationals politicians who he says are “capable of hearing the facts” on the coal industry, but have chosen to ignore them to chase votes.

    Mr Forrest, the chair of Fortescue Metals, yesterday stood beside the New South Wales government as it announced a $3 billion green hydrogen plan backed by the billionaire.

    He said the production of green hydrogen fuel using renewable energy could provide jobs for people currently working in coal, oil and gas, as the country moves away from fossil fuels.

    “We need all those skills from coal miners, from oil and gas … they are the exact careers we need right now to build our green hydrogen future,” Mr Forrest told the ABC.

  21. The vaccination figure for ACT today is 98.8% of 12+ having had at least one dose. It is assumed that the same percentage will eventually be fully vaccinated.

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