Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. McGowan has enough political capital right now that he could probably admit to rooting a goat and still easily win another term. Next WA election is nearly four years away. I’m not sure McGowan’s border policies circa late 2021 and early 2022 are going to be weighing heavy on many voters minds by March 2025.

  2. I’m not sure McGowan’s border policies circa late 2021 and early 2022 are going to be weighing heavy on many voters minds by March 2025.

    They’re not weighing on voters’ minds now.

  3. Somebody quipped yesterday that Albanese will be hoping to come to WA in the hope some of McGowan’s shine rubs off.

    Morrison might be hoping McGowan keeps a tight border so he doesn’t have to come here in an election campaign.

  4. Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 7:23 pm

    Somebody quipped yesterday that Albanese will be hoping to come to WA in the hope some of McGowan’s shine rubs off.
    __________
    Yes that was me. They are gaoling Melbournians over there too. Which would probably add to his popularity.

  5. Key points:
    * Police said the woman does not hold a medical doctorate and is not registered as a health practitioner within Australia
    * She was charging up to $150 for fake “medical exemption” certificates
    * She faces fines up to $10,000 and potential jail time

    That’s 600 people* willing to spend up to $150 on a fake certificate rather than get two free jabs. Are there many more like her making fake certificates? I predict she will have a book or two thrown at her to discourage others, but it shows there’s a demand for fake certificates.

    * assuming each certificate was paid for and then used by at least one person

  6. As long as ‘Bloody Eastern Staters” like Scrott and Clive keep bowling long hops to McGowan he will keep smashing them out of the park to roars of approval from the local crowd.

  7. Albo should go over to W.A and promise to keep some form of the National Cabinet, and that McGowan will have a very big say in his government. That might help.

  8. As far as I remember Forest has had a number of positions on on just about everything to do with digging it up & selling it off let alone climate change.

    I wouldn’t trust the man as far as I could throw him.

  9. “In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%).”….

    That swing in Queensland is not enough, Labor needs more than that. No wonder the media are all after the Covid-brilliantly-successful ALP Qld Government, they fear that such success may then translate into a vote for the Federal ALP… But Queenslanders are definitely warming up to the ALP… The ScuMo 2019 “miracle” may not repeat itself in 2022…

  10. mikehilliard says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 7:31 pm
    As far as I remember Forest has had a number of positions on on just about everything to do with digging it up & selling it off let alone climate change.

    I wouldn’t trust the man as far as I could throw him.

    As luck would have it, I know several people involved in management at various levels in Fortescue. They are mainly young, frequently female, usually leftie and invariably very smart. If they are guiding Fortescue, then in spite of everything Twiggy might do some good. On climate and energy he’s miles in front.

  11. The next move in the China-Australia game:

    The Northern Territory government remains in the dark about potential moves by the federal government to scrap a Chinese company’s lease over the Port of Darwin amid national security concerns.

    With the defence department edging closer to finishing a review ordered five months ago, Guardian Australia understands the federal government is considering options that go beyond the binary choice of keeping or scrapping the lease.

    A third option is to keep the 99-year lease in force but impose additional requirements on the operator Landbridge Group.

    Under critical infrastructure laws that passed the parliament in 2018, the federal government has the power to require a port operator to take specific actions based on security risks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/14/nt-in-the-dark-over-potential-moves-to-cancel-chinese-companys-darwin-port-lease-amid-security-concerns

  12. Tricot says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 7:05 pm

    “Meanwhile, the Liberal Party is in a to-the-death struggle between the few genuine Liberals left in WA, and the control exercised over the Liberal Party by those who belong to aggressive, fundamentalist Christian religious groups who currently run what remains of the s0-called Liberal Party of WA..”

    I wouldn’t believe everything you read – especially not in the West.

  13. Singing Coot

    Forrest & his leftie female minions might start by fixing up everything he’s f*cked up along the way to making a personal fortune.

    Apparently it’s all fine these days to become a climate change convert, whether in industry or politics. Shame it’s too little & too late.

  14. Actually Forrest’s bleating about joining the green energy bandwagon sound so much like those rich twits in the US firing rockets into space, it’s all for the greater good i.e their’s.

  15. The only chance for Morrison PM in WA is to give the remaining 30% of GST receipts to WA that it collects from WA and is used to “prop up” the Eastern states.
    For Morrison and Hunt to think of reducing the existing 70% will make the Covid border controls a permanent fixture.
    Is there a chance that the Qld polling is understating the support that Palaszczuk will receive because her “Queensland First” stance resonates strongly in the SE.
    Some suggested earlier that the longer this fake election drags on, the worse the result for the self proclaimed, god’s choice marketeer.
    Albanese has not taken the bait as yet.

  16. mikehilliard says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 7:43 pm

    Apparently it’s all fine these days to become a climate change convert, whether in industry or politics. Shame it’s too little & too late.
    __________________
    Depends what’s on offer. Cormann dropped his skepticism quicker than you can say ‘big money job in Paris’.

  17. It is days like this when I miss Sydney. Perching on a balcony in Neutral Bay with a few mates, beers in hand, watching the storms roll in over the harbour. Preferably after a hot humid day.

    Sitting on the verandah with a beer watching crawler lightning is pretty good:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-07/crawler-lightning-what-causes-it/10692794

    Unfortunately, the days of looking forward to a good, fun storm seem to have been replaced with fretting about bad, even dangerous, storms.

  18. citizen

    “The vaccination figure for ACT today is 98.8% of 12+ having had at least one dose. It is assumed that the same percentage will eventually be fully vaccinated.”

    According to covid19data.com.au

    Age 12+ ACT 97.7% NSW 91.4%

    But going back to the globally comparable percentage of population

    ACT 78%. NSW 73.5%

    This predicts that ACT lands somewhere over 80% fully dosed at some point and NSW lands somewhere close to 80% – it may fall shy of this mark but I hope not.

    The reason I bring the international comparison in is simply this. Those countries who are close to or over 80% fully vaccinated (of the entire population) are almost universally seeing covid under control. Those countries in the high 60s or early 70s (which is 80-90 in Australia over 16) are generally doing poorly. We need to get as close to herd immunity as possible and 80-90% of over 16 simply doesn’t cut it.

  19. mikehilliard @ #416 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 7:45 pm

    Actually Forrest’s bleating about joining the green energy bandwagon sound so much like those rich twits in the US firing rockets into space, it’s all for the greater good i.e their’s.

    Yes, but better that than continuing to promote Coal like Gina Reinhart and Clive Palmer. Sometimes you need people like Forrest, with deep pockets to get on board. Mike Cannon-Brooks doesn’t mind working with him.

  20. In regard the upcoming appearance of the News Corp executive before the Senate committee, it is interesting to reflect on the activities of the Murdoch media in the Towke matter

    It could be argued that the pm of Australia is a pawn of Murdoch, owing his position to Murdoch including the part played by Murdoch and Stokes in the overthrow of Turnbull

  21. Nothing is for ever in politics and, as I said to a friend who is a Liberal supporter in WA, after the election wipe out for the Libs – cheer up – for with between 3 – 4 people in 10 voting Liberal in WA, some of the Western suburbs seats will go back your way come the next State election…However, the wheels will have to absolutely fall off the Labor wagon for any glimmer of hope for the Liberals. If I were a Liberal I would thank the very deity that the PM believes in that Morrison is there as a Liberal organisation holding out the Labour horde at the Federal level.
    As far as the rest of the country goes, Liberal Victoria is sick, same for Queensland, SA, NT and ACT. In NSW the Rum Corps mentality seems to run the Liberals and this apparently appeals to the locals.
    Tassie goes its own sweet way…..
    No telling for tastes and political allegiances I suppose.

  22. Phalus

    Care to reference the internal review conducted by the Liberal Party WA Division?

    Being a rusted on Liberal you should have access

    But they would say that wouldn’t they?

    And is the West Stokes, who is a member of which political party?

    When you get to 99 you should really change hands

  23. I bet Bucephalus pines for the return of real Capitalism untrammelled by inconvenient red tape.

    On 22nd September 1934 at Gresford Colliery, Wales, an explosion killed 266 men & boys underground. 6 survived and only 11 bodies were ever recovered.

    The wages of all were docked by half a days pay by the owners because the men had ‘failed to complete their shift.’

  24. Observer

    There was video floating around earlier in the week from the WA Liberals’ State Conference of one of the candidates for State president making his pitch.

    His platform basically was to kick Nick Goiran and Peter Collier (along with Cormann key players in the control group known as The Clan) out of the party.

    He got 15 votes. The winner 2o0 something.

    The Clan is still in control.

  25. Cud Chewer @ #211 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 7:00 pm

    Incidentally its hard to see how NSW is at 91.4% (adults) first dose when you look at the postcode by postcode map and see all the suburbs that fall short.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-18/nsw-covid-19-vaccination-map/100387416

    Scan your eyes over this and tell me what you think the average should be?

    If you step the map back to Oct 7, from Oct 10, something odd happens to the chart. It might be a flaw in the underlying data.

  26. The Victorian liberal party are simply awful.

    ANTI-VAX MPs banned from working on site at Parliament until they get jabbed as motion passes 31 to 4. Victorian Liberals were put on notice last week regarding the proposed ban. D

  27. The interesting thing about that poll is 25% don’t know about Albo, as compared to 10% about Scomo.

    That 25% number will certainly come down by the time of the election.

  28. It looks like voters think there is more Bad coming Gladys’s way

    Edit & women massively more undecided.. I think this is indication of “wishful” thinking by women, as ICAC develops they will break heavily against Gladys..for Gladys its over.

  29. Even more bizarre than Matthias Cormann running a Christian Conservative ‘Clan’ is that the Federal Labor Party backed him for the position of OECD Sec Gen. You have to wonder wtf.

  30. Jaeger @ Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 9:02 pm

    I never thought this quote would emerge from the mouth of an AMA spokesperson:

    “We’re all going to get COVID, we have to keep our tourist industry going.”

  31. Lurker says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 9:02 pm
    Even more bizarre than Matthias Cormann running a Christian Conservative ‘Clan’ is that the Federal Labor Party backed him for the position of OECD Sec Gen. You have to wonder wtf.
    ________________________________________________

    Not like the way the Libs shafted Rudd over UN Sec-Gen. It was very generous of Labor.

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