Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 62
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  1. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 4:48 pm

    There isn’t a problem with the state giving a grant to the Wagga clay shooting club but the problem was there any alleged corrupt payments to politicians or public servants.

    5.5 million for clay shooting. Come on get real. There are very solid reasons why the bureaucrats said no.

  2. TGA approves rapid antigen self-tests

    The Therapeutic Goods Association (TGA) has approved three Covid-19 rapid antigen self tests for home use in Australia from 1 November.
    It includes two oral fluid tests and one nasal swab test.

  3. Haha.

    Phillip Moore
    @phillipwmoore49
    ·
    3h
    Overwhelmed! Today I’ve discovered there are actually organisations called AvocadosAustralia, MushroomsAustralia &, to top it off, CustardApplesAustralia. If I find that Barnaby Joyce is CEO or patron of BeetrootsAustralia I’ll abandon Twitter.

  4. Frednk
    The amount looks generous but that depends on the criteria and If the bureaucrats said no then that is a different story but the ICAC investigation is into if there were any corrupt payments made.

    trying to be nice to William’s lawyers.

  5. Boerwar

    Your comment on fruit pickers, farm labourers, et al, have made me wonder why there is no Basic Wage, below which employers cannot go.
    Or perhaps there is, and cheating is built into the system.

  6. frednk says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 4:25 pm

    “Job keeper has raided treasury to place money into private companies whose turnover increased during the pandemic; so poorly design the money can’t be recovered. Is that what you support? Capitalism is best when it is raiding the state?”

    It was a unique economic catastrophe we were facing. This is what Conservatives should keep their powder dry for – just like Howard gave Rudd a clean balance sheet to deal with the GFC.

    No one knew exactly what was going to happen but it was looking horrendously bad and a system based on forecasting is always going to be inaccurate. 20/20 hindsight is wonderful.

    “Labor attempted to introduce a market mechanism to reduce carbon emissions 13 years ago. Are you against market mechanisms, or do not accept the science that climate change is man made?”

    I’m not going to rehash this in full here but just say nothing we or the rest of the world do will make any measurable difference.

    “What is your view on the BCA supporting the transition to a carbon free economy after years of ignoring the science?”

    They see the vast sums of taxpayers dollars being dolled out. If it was profitable it would have been being done already.

    “Do you support 5.5 million dollars being spent on a rifle range ( which in the end is what the NSW corruption inquiry is about). Is the capitalism you support raiding treasury for private gain by any means?”

    It’s not private gain – it’s a community facility – you can argue fir lots of different types and uses of community facilities. I need two artificial hockey turfs and a new rowing/canoeing facility built because they are things my family use. Win the argument.

    “Do you support the lack of the enforcement of building standards in NSW, buyer beware, it’s capitalism?”

    Clearly the NSW Building Certification system isn’t working adequately. It’s not whether it’s government or private – it’s about how compliance is enforced.

    “Were you against Labor opening up the countries commercial system in the 80s, is it protected capitalism you support?”

    Absolutely not. I was a huge fan of the floating of the AUD and the deregulation of tarrifs. China should be forced to go to a free float on their currency.

    “Conservative value, what exactly are they.”

    Self responsibility, the rule of law, the Limited liability company, minimum necessary regulation and taxation among others.

    “Bullying people that are a little different?”

    No. But I not that the Left and all the Identity Politics types are very strong on that.

    “Are you against Turnbull because he supported same sex marriage?”

    No. I voted for it as did many conservatives. I’m against him because he’s an arrogant dilettante who ignored the LNP Party Members.

    “Supported Howard because we wouldn’t let a few people get off the TAMPA?”

    Yep – they hijacked the ship when it said it was going to the next Indonesian port. We have a right to control border access, particularly from country shoppers who have passed through multiple safe haven countries already.

    “Do you support Howard because he lied about refugees throwing children overboard?”

    He didn’t.

    “Do you support the Liberal party trying to undermine our institutions as they are with ICAC?”

    I believe ICAC is anti-democratic in the way it operates and destroys politicians without them being guilty of breaking the law.

    “You support the Liberals; what policies represent the version of consecutive values and capitalism you support?”

    Most of what they are doing in federal power now apart from the inefficient subsidies to renewables and the Snowy Hydro 2.

  7. The vibe in Canberra is leaning very much to the Government getting ready.

    I’m going to be actively surprised now if we’re not in Caretaker by Monday week.


  8. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 4:57 pm

    Frednk
    The amount looks generous but that depends on the criteria and If the bureaucrats said no then that is a different story but the ICAC investigation is into if there were any corrupt payments made.

    trying to be nice to William’s lawyers.

    Why should the state support clay firing ranges?
    Schools yes, education yes, defense yes. Clay firing ranges?

    Leave aside how it ended up being funded, it’s nonsense, what have the Liberals become?

  9. “‘Booked in’: Joyce promises multibillion-dollar coal export train to Gladstone”

    Coal is just the excuse. Beetroots are the prime cargo.

  10. I’m going to be actively surprised now if we’re not in Caretaker next weekend.

    I’ve thought for a while that the govt would hold an election this year.

  11. frednk says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 4:56 pm

    “‘Booked in’: Joyce promises multibillion-dollar coal export train to Gladstone

    Barnaby Joyce says the extension of the Melbourne to Brisbane rail project can be “booked in” as an election promise, despite feasibility studies ruling it out.”

    Sounds like the Ellenbrook rail line here in Perth that the ALP are building. Politicians get to do those things. Vote against them if you don’t like it.

  12. jt1983 @ #308 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 5:02 pm

    The vibe in Canberra is leaning very much to the Government getting ready.

    I’m going to be actively surprised now if we’re not in Caretaker by Monday week.

    They just need to get the Electoral legislation passed in the next session of federal parliament and they are free and clear to begin the Big Con.

  13. Tornados in Sydney?

    BoM’s “very dangerous” label is spot on – it looks worse than the 2014 Brisbane supercell:

    Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales @BOM_NSW

    ⚠️ #Thunderstorm Warning has been updated. Very Dangerous thunderstorm quickly moving off the coast, with conditions easing for now. Stay up to date with the latest at http://ow.ly/S4jH50Gr6Dx and watch the radar at http://ow.ly/FwhM50Gr6Dw

  14. Our power went out for 15 minutes during the storm! Just enough time for me to find the candles, the lighter and the battery-powered LED lights…And then put them all away again. 😐

  15. frednk says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 5:03 pm

    “Why should the state support clay firing ranges?
    Schools yes, education yes, defense yes. Clay firing ranges?”

    Because it supports lots of different types of sport and community groups.

  16. Frednk
    Government supporting clay shooting clubs is a choice and there are a lot of things that governments could stop funding if they wanted too and that is why i will sometimes say here that government budgets can be trimmed without much difficulty.


  17. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 5:06 pm

    frednk says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 4:56 pm

    “‘Booked in’: Joyce promises multibillion-dollar coal export train to Gladstone

    Barnaby Joyce says the extension of the Melbourne to Brisbane rail project can be “booked in” as an election promise, despite feasibility studies ruling it out.”

    Sounds like the Ellenbrook rail line here in Perth that the ALP are building. Politicians get to do those things. Vote against them if you don’t like it.

    The Ellenbrook line is a 21KM line to supply suburban train services. Is it ignorance or you blind support of the Liberals that leads you to post such nonsense.

  18. I was holding on the phone to do a quick radio interview at 4.45 pm, when the person organising it asked me where I live. – it is an unusual question. I said, about 2 km from Ultimo, and “yes it is very stormy here”.

    But hew was actually concerned I might live in Western Sydney, and would have cancelled the interview possibly. The warning must have been very scary.

    Also, Bludgers out west, I hope you are faring well!

    Edited for typos.


  19. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 5:13 pm

    Frednk
    Government supporting clay shooting clubs is a choice and there are a lot of things that governments could stop funding if they wanted too and that is why i will sometimes say here that government budgets can be trimmed without much difficulty.

    Fair enough, but the Liberals are supposed to be the competent money managers. The question I am asking is why would anyone support this bunch of clowns.

    They do a better job of raiding treasury is a legitimate reason I suppose, but supporters should be a little bit more honest about it. Don’t claim 5.5 million to shoot clay is a legitimate state expense.

  20. Buce @5.16
    “I am completely underwhelmed by Soccer and yet local, state and federal governments keep throwing money and land at it.”
    Largest participation sport in Australia and a stupid comment by one of the smallest thought bubbles ever posted on PB.

  21. frednk says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    and multiple studies said it is unjustified for the size of the population. But they’re getting it. Only a few years behind schedule at the moment.

  22. The Ellenbrook line was a Barnett commitment back in 2008.
    At subsequent elections he tried to twist and and tun and say he never promised anything, the local candidate mouthed off was one excuse.
    The people out there were in little doubt about what they had been told and voted accordingly.
    McGowan committed to the line in 2017 and planning started in 2019 and it’s under construction.
    Hopefully Joyce never gets to waste billions in extending the inland rail.

  23. Rossmcg @ #39 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 5:32 pm

    Hopefully Joyce never gets to waste billions in extending the inland rail.

    It would be used to haul Coal to Newcastle, wouldn’t it? To those great big, untapped reserves in Queensland, where the Inland Rail would go next, no doubt. IF the Coalition are returned to power.

    Joyce might say it’s for the farmers, but I don’t think so.

  24. Is there anything more disturbing than Scotty brimming with confidence.
    Albo hasn’t got a chance.
    Hope someone will be there to drag the thug off him before it’s too late.

  25. Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 5:32 pm

    Well done – you avoided mentioning any of the feasibility studies that said it wasn’t worth it for the small population.

  26. Laughtong,

    It was a comment on Julian Hill’s twitter feed in response to a letter he wrote questioning the issue of debit cards and pensions.
    He was denied FOI on this and the letter is on Julian Hill MP’s Facebook page.
    Sorry, tried linking without success.

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 5:35 pm

    Have you ever heard BBC Hard Talk interviews with Orban’s apparatchiks… frustrating as all hell.. you see where SfM gets it from.

  28. Sceptic @ #342 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 5:43 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 5:35 pm

    Have you ever heard BBC Hard Talk interviews with Orban’s apparatchiks… frustrating as all hell.. you see where SfM gets it from.

    No I haven’t. I bet they learnt their craft up the road in Russia.

    Also, you can see why Tony Abbott is a frequent visitor to Hungary.

  29. margo69
    @margo694

    Queensland man Bruce Lehrmann has appeared before court charged with the alleged sexual assault of Brittany Higgins at Parliament House in 2019. Adjourned to Nov 5.

    The ACT’s Director of Public Prosecutions Shane Drumgold said his case is ready to proceed to trial.

    But Mr Lehrmann’s lawyers said they have not been able to have a proper conference with him because of COVID-19 restrictions.

    Today, Magistrate Beth Campbell gave Mr Lehrmann’s lawyer three more weeks to prepare the case.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-14/bruce-lehrmann-alleged-rape-case-higgins-delay-due-to-covid19/100538246

  30. It is days like this when I miss Sydney. Perching on a balcony in Neutral Bay with a few mates, beers in hand, watching the storms roll in over the harbour. Preferably after a hot humid day.

  31. lizzie says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 5:00 pm

    Boerwar

    Your comment on fruit pickers, farm labourers, et al, have made me wonder why there is no Basic Wage, below which employers cannot go.
    Or perhaps there is, and cheating is built into the system.
    ——————–
    piece work around

  32. “I am completely underwhelmed by Soccer and yet local, state and federal governments keep throwing money and land at it.” Well Buce Boy Warrior, a hell of a lot more people play soccer than shoot at clay targets. Just how many members did that clay target club have again and many millions did the corrupt Tories spend on it? You are a tool!

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