Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Bucephalus at 3:09 pm
    In lalaland yes it does work that way. In the real world shit like a multinational I once worked for happens. They had been in Australia for 80+ years and the boss cocky proudly told us they had made a profit just twice before when announcing No.3. He added that maybe they should look for new accountants. The biggest way to remove profit that I was aware of was getting Australia to pay max prices for our raw materials from our branch in low low tax Singapore. We were paying a higher price for our own company’s stuff than our competitors in Australia !! Goodbye margins and so goodbye tax payable. .

    All legal but still utter bullshit and ripping off local taxpayers.

  2. citizen @ #236 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 2:49 pm

    I also support a move away from the highly inefficient Stamp Duty to much fairer and more efficient Land Tax system. We pay council rates so we can also pay land tax.

    Tell that to the ACT Liberal opposition who continually whinge about the ACT government doing just that.

    I listened to a discussion yesterday about Land Tax V Stamp Duty, since Dominic Perrottet introduced it in NSW when he was Treasurer, and the consensus was that Land Tax was worse as you have to pay it every year for the rest of your life, as opposed to Stamp Duty only once, and that’s why Treasuries like Land Tax so much-it gives them a reliable quantum to budget with. However, people who have retired don’t much like it because, unlike Stamp Duty which they have paid and left behind, Land Tax follows them to their graves.


  3. Aqualungsays:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 12:38 pm
    Were Labor expecting a 20%+ swing to them in the Miranda by-election back in 2013(?)
    Yes they lost at the next state election but it put the wind up the libs.
    It was early days for the libs in government so maybe it wasn’t worth contesting but I’d imagine a long term government getting a significant swing against it might take a psychological hit.
    It could also be a shot in the arm for state Labor.
    Gutless.

    Rant:
    Thete is one thing about Bob Carr which I think Minns is trying to emulate but not succeeding. When Bob Carr was Opp leader against Nick Griener ( the most reformist Premier) he never had pitched battles like Abbott did with Gillard. He used to choose his battles to fight carefully because Griener was a very popular Premier. That is the reason he was able to reduce Griener government to a minority government in 1991, which nobody expected. At that time SMH editorial, I think, mentioned that NSW was fortunate to have 2 intelligent people as leaders in Premier and Opposition leader.
    Minns is trying to repeat that strategy of Carr. But the thing is Carr was NSW MP for some time and minister in previous Labor government. Also, he was mates with Keating, Richardson and Brereton, who were politically astute. IMO, Minns is taking the above strategy to other extreme, which is leading to no engagement with government and he has nobody like Keating or Richardson to advice.
    Rant end.

    There is difference between Upper Hunter by-election and Holsworthy and Monaro by-elections.
    Upper hunter is semi-regional and rural electorate, which Labor never won, whereas Holsworthy is outer-Surburban Sydney seat and Monaro is centered around Queanbeyan(a regional centre adjacent to Canberra). Labor won both seats in past.
    LNP won Upper Hunter seat because of popularity of Gladys at that time. Now she is gone.
    2 other issues occured in Holsworthy electorate.
    1. Part of the electorate was in stage 4 lockdown for about 100 days till end of September. So people in that region may be resentful if not white hot anger about that.
    2. There is a military base in Holsworthy. Surely atleast some people must have been upset with chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan and Dud Nuclear deal.

    Is Labor going to give victory of 4 by-elections to Dom P on a silver platter?

  4. Universal superannuation was introduced by Hawke with Keating as his treasurer.

    Prior to that, Defined Benefit Superannuation schemes existed and to which you contributed across the Public Service (hence the so called “Future Fund”), banks and other employers from the date you commenced employment.

    The likes of the banks removed the Contingent Liability from their Balance Sheets, converting to Allocated Pensions (so you contributed to a Fund Manager, the performance reflecting market returns and, of more significance, compounding).

    Hawke and Keating made superannuation universal.

    And set employer minimum contribution levels – the funds contributed allocated from your individual remuneration package, leaving your after tax take home pay.

    So the legislated 9% did not necessarily apply, as you could choose to contribute above that (and 15%, which I did).

    There was a tax advantage but the offset is that, having given myself a 50th Birthday present of retiring to parent my (then very young) children, the Commonwealth does not know I (or my wife) exist and has not known that we exist now for over 25 years.

    Apart from now receiving Franking Credits annually.

    Thank you Peter!!!

    At $1.6 Million per account holder, so $3.2 Million between us, earnings in the Fund(s) are tax free and our Allocated Pensions are tax free.

    Above that our earnings are taxed at 15% in the Fund (the complexities you leave to your Fund Manager).

    The $1.6 Million “cap” per account holder was introduced by the LNP relatively recently (in response to the ALP putting that Allocated Pension income above $100,000- pa should be taxed at 15% – only the amount over $100,000- pa).

    So the Libs introduced this hotch potch, which is a real pain (and moreso for those self managing with real estate in their portfolio as I understand)

    Previously there was no “cap”.

    You are exposed to Market variations (eg the GFC and the gyrations of March last year, impacting the balance under management and your Pension draw which is adjusted to the balance each financial year)

    But, for some 4 years (from memory) post the GFC the minimum draw was reduced by 50% (so 5% to 2.5%) and post March last year, the minimum draw was again reduced by 50%, now in its 3rd year (so 3% instead of 6%, the minimum draw rate increasing with age)

    The reasons for requesting a lump sum withdrawal can be many, so assisted living access, health needs etc etc.

    All legitimate due to what life serves up (the funds represent your money contributed after all – plus earnings and compounding over your working life).

    As one contributor on here confirms, the problem with accrued superannuation is the Liberal Party trying to get their hands on your money and otherwise trying to destroy superannuation due to Industry Funds – so ideological and Unions

    Hence people being forced to access their accruals to survive post this Pandemic.

    The Liberals, being elitist, racist and sexist have a natural objection to other than “their” demographic bettering their living circumstances, including in retirement.

    And now they once again promote thru their selected “experts” that the tax system needs reform by increasing the GST (which Australia would never have), Death Duties and (further) taxing the family home.

    Imagine if Labor promoted such an agenda?

    Thing Franking Credits!!!


  5. citizensays:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 3:07 pm
    Murdoch has divided his hacks into two groups – those suddenly told to push renewables and those saying it’s a lot of baloney. For example:

    Morrison’s switch to net zero leaves us in dark

    How can something be dead wrong two years ago but now be absolutely right? The PM needs to explain himself to the quiet Australians who voted for him.

    PETA CREDLIN

    versus

    PM must get fellow travellers on board
    The 2050 net-zero emissions train is leaving the station and it is leaving whether everyone is on board or not.

    SIMON BENSON
    Political Editor

    Whereas Benson is Morrison supporter and Credlin is law unto herself.

    She is force of destruction whereas others are not that much.

  6. Ven says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 3:24 pm

    “ There is a military base in Holsworthy. Surely atleast some people must have been upset with chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan and Dud Nuclear deal.”

    Australia’s withdrawal was orderly and early. We pulled out in May but didn’t disclose that publicly until July – the collapse was forecast a long time before.

    The vast majority of the ADF support the Nuclear Subs decision.

  7. The Premier seems to have the measure of the Opposition Leader in question time c/- the Guardian

    “In NSW, opposition leader Chris Minns has questioned premier Dominic Perrottet on the resignation of MP Melanie Gibbons yesterday.

    Minns:

    Premier, more than 6,000 people in Holsworthy lost their job during the Delta outbreak. Is mid-term and mid-pandemic the right time for the member for Holsworthy to cause a by-election?

    Perrottet:

    Obviously it’s disappointing that the member for Holsworthy is seeking to seek pre selection…but our loss maybe is their gain…she’s been a fighter for Southwest Sydney and I’m sure she’s successful.

    That’s why it’s hard when you lead a team…there’s always going to be demand for our talents…but it’s a good sign. It’s a good sign that federal politics knows that our members here and the Liberals and Nationals in New South Wales are such strong fighters for their communities that they want to pick that talent up and take it to Canberra.”

  8. “ The Dept of Social Service is refusing to grant access to Julian Hill under an FOI request – information pertaining to the Morrison govt’s plans to force age pensioners onto the Cashless Debit card if his govt wins the next election

    What the Hell do they have to hide?”

  9. I saw an article by Bolt saying he was basically the only climate change denier left employed by Murdoch in Oz.

    Obviously all those journalists didn’t independently decide to switch sides so Murdoch really does interfere in the editorial process despite all the denials.

  10. I’ve probably changed my mind on this a few times but I think I’ve finally come around to support the family home being exempted from the Assets Test, as it is for Capital Gains Tax.

    Having to force Pensioners to sell their house after decades of living there is just a bit too much. Also, we’d have whole waves of pensioners forced to do so if their suburbs experience sudden price surges. Plus there is the cost to police this measure.

    Exempting the family home is how we have transferred wealth and supported families for quite a while. It would be very disruptive to change that now.

  11. Fuckity, fuck, fuck, fuck.

    “Chris O’Keefe
    (@cokeefe9)
    BREAKING: Nine News understands residents of Greater Sydney will not be allowed to travel to regional NSW when 80% freedoms kick in on Monday, instead travel will be delayed for at least a week, maybe longer. @9NewsAUS”

  12. Lurker says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 3:45 pm

    “Having to force Pensioners to sell their house”

    There’s no need to sell the house. Reverse Mortgages are quite adequate.

  13. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 3:53 pm

    Lurker says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 3:45 pm

    “Having to force Pensioners to sell their house”

    There’s no need to sell the house. Reverse Mortgages are quite adequate.
    _____________________
    I think they only offer these in certain suburbs. It was the last time I inquired for someone about them.

    The Assets Test without the Family Home is around 150k-250k I believe, somewhere around there. So they may have large amount of capital in the house, but it is not producing income.

    If you are not going to exempt the house, then you would have to raise the Assets Test considerably, otherwise you would pensioners owning a 350,000 dollar house having to sell or take out a reverse mortgage.

    Admittedly, you probably wouldn’t want people with 3 million dollar houses getting the pension, so perhaps a cap might be acceptable.

    Generally I have no problems with pensioners getting a good ride seeing that their income producing capacity is almost non existent.

  14. Shellbell says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 3:45 pm
    Fuckity, fuck, fuck, fuck.

    “Chris O’Keefe
    (@cokeefe9)
    BREAKING: Nine News understands residents of Greater Sydney will not be allowed to travel to regional NSW when 80% freedoms kick in on Monday, instead travel will be delayed for at least a week, maybe longer. @9NewsAUS”
    _______________________
    No Dubbo trip for you?

  15. Quasar @ #261 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 3:43 pm

    “ The Dept of Social Service is refusing to grant access to Julian Hill under an FOI request – information pertaining to the Morrison govt’s plans to force age pensioners onto the Cashless Debit card if his govt wins the next election

    What the Hell do they have to hide?”

    … The fact they plan to force Aged Pensioners onto the Cashless Debit Card after the election, should they win. And they wouldn’t win if Aged Pensioners found out about it before the election. Maybe?

  16. Bucephalus

    There’s no need to sell the house. Reverse Mortgages are quite adequate.

    Political suicide. The pensioners ever loving will beneficiaries would go ape. Howard took a shuffle towards that sort of thing to fund retirement home care etc. He was ‘Mr Lightning man’ retreating from that when it turned out to be a third rail issue in the electorate. It became one of those “Now never let us speak of this again” issues . Oh the outrage at the time. The clamor from the children of the elderly was of course entirely due to concern for their parents’ welfare 😉

  17. ‘Shellbell says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 3:45 pm

    Fuckity, fuck, fuck, fuck.

    “Chris O’Keefe
    (@cokeefe9)
    BREAKING: Nine News understands residents of Greater Sydney will not be allowed to travel to regional NSW when 80% freedoms kick in on Monday, instead travel will be delayed for at least a week, maybe longer. @9NewsAUS”’
    ———————————
    Freedom Boy Perrottet’s pox vectors to be held in reserve for another week?

  18. poroti says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 4:06 pm

    The clamor from the children of the elderly was of course entirely due to concern for their parents’ welfare
    _______________
    Plenty of pensioners want to leave the family home to their children, it’s not all about the greed of children. Many people who worked before Super assumed that this was how they were going to look after their families after they had gone.

    Personally, I’d like to leave my kids a package that could choke an Elephant.

  19. LVT

    Coincidentally, it is two years virtually to the day I went to Dubbo to see a client driving through Lithgow to Mudgee and beyond. Looked dry but beautiful a week or so before the Gospers Mountain fire ignited.

  20. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 2:05 pm

    Boerwar

    Elsewhere in the GT, China’s CPI up .7% year on year in September.

    If China is having supply and inflation problems then we’re going to be in for a hell of a ride. As someone said of the last 20 or so years. The US ‘exported’ inflation to China by way of cheaper and cheaper and cheaper goods from China.’
    ————————
    Who knows. Xi has the official statistics department that many a western government would die for. You tell them what statistics you want and, hey presto.
    One inflationary pressure was the rising prices because of the energy shortage. In turn this caused the CPC to close down factories. In turn this caused supply side shortages. In turn this would cause rising prices.
    OTOH, one would have thought that the selling associated with Evergrande might just have had a countervailing impact.
    Who knows? The ride looks interesting.

  21. Boerwar

    Freedom Boy Perrottet’s pox vectors to be held in reserve for another week?

    No, he has transferred those Plague Platoons to the Bot Battalions. There is to be a ‘Big Push’ against the front lines of the other States. Overrun the front lines and it’ll all be over by Xmas.

  22. By backtracking of opening regional travel in nsw
    Perrottet shows he is a bigger liar than Gladys, Morrison and made frydenberg look like the fool every one knew he was

  23. The reality is that by the time my children will inherit anything from us, they won’t need it.

    One of my sons – about to buy his first house – has said that he might need money from us to help him with a deposit, but he expects to be able to find it himself, and if he does, he will not be asking us for money – ever.

    I suggested that when my mum dies I would pass on some of the inheritance, but he’s not interested.

    Frankly, I can’t work out what else to do with the money myself. We own the house, and the kind of travel I’d like to do -ever internationally – isn’t very expensive.

    As for assets tests, if you’re aware that the house will be included, you plan accordingly. And a lot of pensioners I know have downsized in their retirement, and are far from regretting the change.

    On the other hand, I know others who have stayed in the family home and it’s been very difficult for them. Some have resented the idea that they’re spending their time and strength maintaining a house far too big for them simply because of family sentiment.

  24. Kim Jong McGowan in action:

    On Wednesday the McGowan government notched up emphatic victories against the holy trinity of enemies of the state: east coast yuppies, a billionaire and bikies.

    It was also a day that neatly packaged up WA Premier Mark McGowan’s winning formula – picking an adversary and going for the jugular.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/yuppies-bikies-and-a-billionaire-mcgowan-takes-down-trifecta-of-enemies-of-the-state-in-one-day-20211014-p5902p.html

  25. Lurker
    Of course they do, only natural. No problem with that. The LOL was reading/hearing so many of the complaints that had a transparent veneer of concern for “poor mum and dad” but screamed “I want all their money. It’s mine.” .

  26. zoomster says:

    I suggested that when my mum dies I would pass on some of the inheritance, but he’s not interested.

    Frankly, I can’t work out what else to do with the money myself.
    _____________
    Send it my way if you want.

  27. Federal Labor MP Anthony Byrne has quit as deputy chair of Parliament’s powerful intelligence and security committee amid scrutiny over his admission of branch stacking during an anti-corruption inquiry.

    Mr Byrne, the member for Holt, told Victoria’s Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission earlier this week he had paid for other people’s party memberships as he turned whistleblower on what he described as a larger scheme of branch stacking led by former powerbroker Adem Somyurek.

  28. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 1:38 pm

    frednk says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 12:40 pm

    I doubt that there’s any point in trying to explain why Conservative values and capitalism have been the bedrock foundation of human progress since the Middle Ages.

    It’s not a religious thing as I’m an Atheist but I recognise the strong positive influence on Western Democracies of the Judeo-Christian beliefs.

    “conservative values and capitalism”.

    Job keeper has raided treasury to place money into private companies whose turnover increased during the pandemic; so poorly design the money can’t be recovered. Is that what you support? Capitalism is best when it is raiding the state?

    Labor attempted to introduce a market mechanism to reduce carbon emissions 13 years ago. Are you against market mechanisms, or do not accept the science that climate change is man made?

    What is your view on the BCA supporting the transition to a carbon free economy after years of ignoring the science?

    Do you support 5.5 million dollars being spent on a rifle range ( which in the end is what the NSW corruption inquiry is about). Is the capitalism you support raiding treasury for private gain by any means?

    Do you support the lack of the enforcement of building standards in NSW, buyer beware, it’s capitalism?

    Were you against Labor opening up the countries commercial system in the 80s, is it protected capitalism you support?

    Conservative value, what exactly are they. Bullying people that are a little different? Are you against Turnbull because he supported same sex marriage? Supported Howard because we wouldn’t let a few people get off the TAMPA?

    Do you support Howard because he lied about refugees throwing children overboard?

    Do you support the Liberal party trying to undermine our institutions as they are with ICAC?

    You support the Liberals; what policies represent the version of consecutive values and capitalism you support?

  29. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 4:25 pm
    Federal Labor MP Anthony Byrne has quit as deputy chair of Parliament’s powerful intelligence and security committee

    ———————–

    The irony is that the foreign influence IPA liberal party senator James Patterson is the chair of Parliament’s powerful intelligence and security committee

  30. Lurker says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 3:59 pm

    Couple Homeowners for max age pension can have up to $405,000 in assets

    They get a part pension up to $891,5000.

    I think that is generous but acceptable.

    If the home was assessed then the limits would be changed – and we could argue all day on how to calculate that.

  31. citizen at 4:23 pm
    One nifty move over the Clive ‘affair’ was to repeatedly describe it as Clive trying to take money out of our pockets. Not saying ‘the government’ would have to pay made it ‘personal’.

  32. Quasar @ #260 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 3:43 pm

    “ The Dept of Social Service is refusing to grant access to Julian Hill under an FOI request – information pertaining to the Morrison govt’s plans to force age pensioners onto the Cashless Debit card if his govt wins the next election

    What the Hell do they have to hide?”

    Quasar
    Where did you see this? ALP scare campaign should be on the way if it true

  33. There isn’t a problem with the state giving a grant to the Wagga clay shooting club but the problem was there any alleged corrupt payments to politicians or public servants.

  34. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/10/14/morgan-53-47-to-labor-2/comment-page-6/#comment-3725559

    … yeah plenty of organisations where head office puts a processing centre in a low tax location, thus enabling lotsa intercompany, such as fees from head office/ corporate unit to the various service units to the various business units.

    Often said service units are in locations where they already get tax benefits, like Central America, Switzerland …

    One place a worked at decades ago even went from the various countries buying and selling products/ services, be it marketing codes, product codes, even part codes, to a commissionaire model to lower the various dollar streams.

    Tax minimisation is legal …

    It’ll be interesting where the global minimum organisational tax ends up, especially with Dear Holidaymaker’s friend now over at the OECD, once he fixes Nbnco’s score on their broadband portal?

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