Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Vogon Poet says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 1:56 pm

    do you get a medal for hearing loss ?
    _____________
    I’d give you a medal if you said that to his face. 🙂

  2. Boerwar

    Elsewhere in the GT, China’s CPI up .7% year on year in September.

    If China is having supply and inflation problems then we’re going to be in for a hell of a ride. As someone said of the last 20 or so years. The US ‘exported’ inflation to China by way of cheaper and cheaper and cheaper goods from China.

  3. Steve says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 2:01 pm

    “Liberal voters in metro seats wouldn’t vote Nats even if presented with that choice.”

    Not many would but I, in an inner city seat, voted for David Wirrpanda in 2013.

  4. Mundo
    If a person got to go to uni because of Whitlam and after the introduction of compulsory super retires with a $2 million dollar balance then the ALP should like that sort of financial success.

  5. For me its the fact the Auslan interpreters were provided in the first place that tells you why they are needed. If it was not the case they would never have been there.

    Soon it won’t be necessary as technology gets to the point of doing well. However you use the subtitles on youtube and see how well it goes to see if you would like to rely on that. Its not there yet.

  6. Lurker says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 2:05 pm

    Mate, I’d just laugh it him. Actually had that situation with some drop kick in Perth City last Sunday wanting to know what my medals were for. The cops stepped in and ushered the plonker away. Perth Railway Station is soooo nice. I thought Basil was going to clean up the city when he became Lord Mayor but obviously not.

  7. laughtong @ #188 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 1:38 pm

    Bucephalus @ #183 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 1:32 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 1:18 pm
    Can’t have those disfavored by their god catered to, can we?

    Don’t all TVs have the Caption function?

    Short answer: As a hard of hearing person I use captions quite a bit.
    On news and similar live broadcasts the captioning is woeful at best and non existant at worst.
    Certainly not reliable.

    I’ve also used Closed Captions when people around me were talking and I wanted to know what someone on the TV was saying. They were not very helpful (I’m being diplomatic). Anyway, isn’t it the preference of the Deaf and the Hearing Impaired that to have Auslan Interpreters because they are virtually in sync with the person speaking? And shouldn’t THEY be the ones who make the choice that their servants, the politicians, should respect?

  8. Lurker says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 2:10 pm

    One of the best I’ve seen play. The one handed pick up while running top speed is unmatched. I think injuries limited him a great deal.

  9. Mexicanbeemer @ #187 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 2:10 pm

    Mundo
    If a person got to go to uni because of Whitlam and after the introduction of compulsory super retires with a $2 million dollar balance then the ALP should like that sort of financial success.

    (I got to go to uni because of Whitlam. I never had super until Paul made me have it.)
    Who says it doesn’t like that sort of financial success?
    What an odd thing to say.

  10. And I have seen it put that capitalism is about evading your responsibility to society.

    Plus you can be fiscally conservative but socially progressive.

    How do those who cite Capitalism and Conservatism as the cornerstone of society respond to the increase of the GST, Death Duties and (further) taxes on the family home, which is the agenda they covertly prosecute thru their network of “experts” (refer today’s media)?

    No doubt they support tax cuts and other measures to create benefit from the tax system for their fellow travelers?

    Julia Banks prosecuted that “the moderate voice has been drowned out and the Party is firmly a Christian Conservative, right-wing Party”

    Then you get to the findings of the internal Inquiry into the outcome of the WA State election.

    Then you get to the events in the SA Parliament, and the reason behind the elevation of the new Speaker.

    Then you get to the “Bible Group” in the Federal Parliament, Hawke the convenor at the instruction of the pm.

    Then you get to the influence of Bastiaan and Sukkar on the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party (and where they recruit their numbers from).

    Menzies, with Holt as his treasurer, increased Company and personal tax rates – and increased the pension.

    Malcolm Fraser said the Liberal Party is no longer a liberal party.

  11. I worry what Twiggy means by “you will see a nation which is the most responsible, the most powerful and the most committed to ending global warming through economic hard rationalism.”

    Is that a code for Scott Morrison is just about to make a lot of noise about his conversion to believing in climate change, but we will find technological solutions, so just trust us?

    From the Guardian Blog:
    A Swiss National daily news journalist asks Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest about Australia’s image overseas. She says it is poor, in Europe particularly.

    I probably needed you to point out that Australia is really unpopular overseas because people need to understand that that is the truth, you know? We are all cosy here in Australia – the sun is shining the wind is blowing but we are not taking advantage of those huge, permanent, everlasting natural resources to help both global warming and and our own economy to rise.

    But don’t judge us for yesterday. Judge us for tomorrow. If we go hard and commit to global warming neutrality by 2050, Cop26, I do not think you will see a country who will perform as quickly, who will turn the J curve faster than Australia, and I really do – I am immensely proud of my fellow Australians and my country once we finally decide, ‘oh, my god. Crack on’, you will see a nation which is the most responsible, the most powerful and the most committed to ending global warming through economic hard rationalism.

  12. Mexicanbeemer @ #197 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 2:18 pm

    Mundo
    Its how the ALP or some of its supporters talk about people like that.

    Okay. I don’t know any of those kinds of Labor supporters then.
    I lead a very sheltered life.
    Seems ironic that the tories were so resistant to so many of Labor’s economic reforms given they’ve produced more Liberal party supporters over time.

  13. Super is a good idea. From a Conservative perspective there are the arguments against it for individual responsibility but there’s also the argument for it in terms of retirement funding minimising the load on taxpayers.

    The current system is still too generous. Once you hit the $1.6 million then there shouldn’t be anymore contributions unless market movements lower the balance in the accumulation phase.

    The current excess balances above $1.6m cap should have to be rolled out of super with no CGT on the rollover but the CGT date/value transfers.

    There shouldn’t be any lump sum withdrawals- it should be a lifetime annuity constantly adjusted for life expectancy.

    And it should be taxable with the old 15% rebate system reinstated.

  14. citizen @ #170 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 11:20 am

    I hope that ASIO and related agencies are monitoring the activities of the people responsible and their financial backers.

    Northern Territory chief health officer Hugh Heggie has blamed misinformation from faith organisations and anti-vaccination groups for influencing the slowing vaccination rates in the Top End. In an emotional press conference, Heggie said misinformation is spreading through social media among Indigenous communities. ‘Who is going to take responsibility for the first death in the Northern Territory? Who is going to take responsibility for the first Aboriginal death in the Northern Territory?’ he said

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2021/oct/14/nt-chief-health-officer-speaks-emotionally-about-misinformation-slowing-vaccine-rollout-video

    Excuse me if I suspect it is a deliberate attempt by those organisations to reduce the indigenous population.

    This is what evil looks like.

    –––––––––––

    But don’t judge us for yesterday. Judge us for tomorrow.

    Why not both?

    Does Twiggy have something to hide about his past and fossil fuels?

  15. Tank boy would be proud of new boy Perrottet’s efforts in sidelining AUSLAN signers, who were present for 100% of Berejiklian’s press conferences. Something about knowing the cost of everything and the value of nothing but I’m sure there will be an excuse for it. There always is. Apparently.

  16. Observer says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 2:19 pm

    “How do those who cite Capitalism and Conservatism as the cornerstone of society respond to the increase of the GST, Death Duties and (further) taxes on the family home,”

    GST is a very efficient tax. Unfortunately the Australian Democrats buggered it. We should have a system like NZ with almost 100% of the tax based taxed. On introduction there were significant tax cuts and increased welfare payments to offset the impact.

    What death duties?

    What taxes on the family home?

    I support the value of the family home being used in the Assets Test for welfare payments. Having multi-millionaire Age Pensioners is ridiculous.

    I also support a move away from the highly inefficient Stamp Duty to much fairer and more efficient Land Tax system. We pay council rates so we can also pay land tax.

  17. Barnaby’s porcine coal train:

    Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce says an extension of the multibillion-dollar Melbourne to Brisbane inland rail project to Gladstone can be “booked in” as a federal election promise to help shift Australia’s future coal exports from the Surat Basin.

    As the junior Coalition partner haggles over the federal government’s climate policy ahead of next month’s United Nations summit in Glasgow, the Nationals leader said the $3 billion, 500-kilometre route that would transport thermal coal from Toowoomba to Gladstone was a “logical” addition to the project.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/joyce-promises-multibillion-dollar-coal-export-train-to-gladstone-20211014-p59015.html

  18. Heretics ! Burn the witch !. Fancy paying your fair share of tax.God created tax havens ,strategic transfer pricing and debt shifting for a reason ya know.

    Record iron ore prices gifted the heirs of Lang Hancock’s business partner Peter Wright $436 million in royalties last financial year, ……………………Wright Prospecting, owned by Mr Wright’s daughter Angela Bennett and the descendants of his son Michael Wright, paid $129 million in income tax for the 12 months to June 2021, leaving an after-tax profit of $298 million.,

    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/50-000-an-hour-of-iron-ore-royalties-for-heirs-with-the-wright-stuff-20211012-p58zdy.html

  19. poroti says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 2:46 pm

    Personal Income Tax, Company Tax, Royalties all being paid. Amazing isn’t it.

  20. I also support a move away from the highly inefficient Stamp Duty to much fairer and more efficient Land Tax system. We pay council rates so we can also pay land tax.

    Tell that to the ACT Liberal opposition who continually whinge about the ACT government doing just that.

  21. Im more open to including the family home in the pension asset test than a land tax on the residential home but only homes above at least $5 million or there is a danger that it will discriminate against someone that is cash poor and their home is their only real asset and if the home included is above $5 million then that danger is greatly diminish.

  22. Steve @ #198 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 1:01 pm

    Liberal voters in metro seats wouldn’t vote Nats even if presented with that choice.

    There needs to be a message directed to all Liberal leaning voters that a vote for the Lib candidate actually empowers Barnaby Joyce. The Lib party are too scared to tell Joyce to go to hell. Labor in government will tell Joyce and his neanderthals to go to hell.

    It’s a classic 2 for 1.

    Morrison’s pitch is that he can control Joyce. Picture a him leading the bull.
    Joyce’s pitch is that he can limit Morrison. Picture him as a farmer fencing the Libs.
    Albanese’s pitch is that they’re a complete set and you can’t trust either of them.

  23. citizen says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 2:49 pm

    On first glance I would say that they are silly but having read a little about it the ACT model and phase in has some significant problems.

  24. @JoyAnnReid tweets

    We are living through a strange, modern-day version of the Dark Ages, where opening one’s body, and the bodies of one’s loved ones and even children up to COVID, while aggressively pushing to spread it to the unwilling, have become a weird right of passage in an American cult.

    Trumpism at this stage is nothing short of a religion — devoted to assuaging his rage over losing the 2020 election by finding ever-more elaborate ways to tell him he didn’t really lose; while eagerly taking in the virus he survived (without the top-tier treatments he received…)

    This while defending an arcane vision of white Christian male supremacy and impunity in everything from academics & history to policing, entertainment & sports. Most importantly this religion fixates on restoring white Christian supremacy in politics and governance at all costs.

    The article of faith seems to be that if they can get control of every aspect of government from the school board to the White House and restore Trump to his throne where he can return to freely spewing racist, misogynistic vulgarity and hurting nonwhite people; change will stop.

    These frightening changes to the demographics and the liberalization of the culture will just stop. And the rite of passage to demonstrate their total faith in the power of Trump to restore the power and permission structures that soothed them is to share and defend the virus.

    If you were to drop in from another planet and observe America today, there’s no way you would believe we were the greatest emerging modern democracy after two world wars and the “cold war.” We are much more like a declining power, with a class of Vichy Republicans scrambling for whatever power they think Trump will grant them in the broken, fascist autocracy, racked by pandemic disease, extreme income inequality, greed, cruelty and misery, that he plans to rule over like a decrepit king. And a Democratic Party that’s quietly fiddling while it all burns.

    What a time to be alive.

  25. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/14/more-than-a-quarter-of-new-sydney-apartment-blocks-have-defects-report-suggests

    If only somebody had warned us about what would happen to building quality and safety if certification standards were not independently policed.

    I mean, apart from all those experienced old hands in the building industry who did warn us at the time what would happen, but were ridiculed and ignored as out of touch with the modern efficient individualist ‘free’ market way of doing things.

    We had a very robust and effective enforcement system, based on hard earned lessons, and we deliberately broke it, all in the delusional pursuit of cheaper in the short term. Now we have a large and increasing chunk of building stock that is not fit for purpose and often unsafe.

    Suing the guilty after the event is not the smart way to deal with this stuff. The cost of repairing these kinds of systemic failures after the event is horrendous. Far greater than simply enforcing standards in the first place.

    Prevention is the only realistic cure to this malady. That means independently enforced standards, not dodgy self-certification.

  26. Murdoch has divided his hacks into two groups – those suddenly told to push renewables and those saying it’s a lot of baloney. For example:

    Morrison’s switch to net zero leaves us in dark

    How can something be dead wrong two years ago but now be absolutely right? The PM needs to explain himself to the quiet Australians who voted for him.

    PETA CREDLIN

    versus

    PM must get fellow travellers on board
    The 2050 net-zero emissions train is leaving the station and it is leaving whether everyone is on board or not.

    SIMON BENSON
    Political Editor

  27. Thanks D&M

    But don’t judge us for yesterday. Judge us for tomorrow. If we go hard and commit to global warming neutrality by 2050, Cop26, I do not think you will see a country who will perform as quickly, who will turn the J curve faster than Australia,

    It’s easy to conflate Morrison’s request that we forget his behaviour (“hindsight” and all that) with Forrest’s confidence that as a nation we can do this. I think we’ve every reason to judge Morrison’s past when deciding his future. Morrison, as burdened as he is by Joyce, is never going to “perform quickly”.

  28. poroti says:
    Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 3:06 pm

    Either you owe tax and you pay it or you don’t owe it and you don’t pay it.

  29. The dark ages were not has oppressive as some people think they were and European women in the middle ages had more rights than women under the Taliban and there were women leaders.

  30. Just a useless thought..

    The Country Party ( Nat) won’t give strong / vaguely meaningful support to a 2030 or 2050 targets.. they are in an existential crisis … a Labor Gov would see the end of the Country Party… royal commissions into coloured spreadsheets & progress on rural restructuring etc would see their base support evaporate come the first Labor Gov election.

    If they vote now to support good 2030/2050 targets their idiot support base would evaporate at this election… they are between a rock & a lump of coal?

    So I’m go for the long term view .. Barnaby will risk the next election not this one.

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