Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
hazza4257says:
Friday, October 1, 2021 at 6:49 pm
Thought exactly the same thing during the subs press conference / hook up.
For some reason i thought what if it was Albo whilst i was watching it.
Morrison has him covered for public speaking.
“OMG the ABC just described it as a gloomy night. She is under investigation for alleged corruption.”
***
The trend to the right of the ABC is disturbing. It should be as neutral as possible. They could really learn a lot from DW on how a public state funded broadcaster should operate.
The ABCs gradual fall from grace is truly saddening. Unthinking right wingers still think it’s a lefty institution, and now the left is angry too. Not sure what management was hoping to achieve.
John Howard is (was) deaf as a post. We put a hard-of-hearing loop into the Cabinet Room and the Chamber so he could tune his earpiece into the speakers.
Always amazed me how he was able handle the pressers. Perhaps pre-ordained questions? Or lip reading?
30 bucks a month is that all.
They way he makes a big song and dance out of it, i was thinking it must have been more like $300 a month.
C@t
“Scott, Barnaby, Bridget, Angus and Dutton.”
Yeah but are these guys inside the hotbox (see the gloves?) or is Gladys inside it?
So Aunty’s joined the conga line – quite pathetic. I’m unsure of why Berejyklian engenders so much public empathy. And while she may’ve been an effective premier, it’s alleged she used her position to enrich a sporting club in Wagga with close ties and at the apparent behest of then boyfriend. This negates the good she may’ve done. It’s a breach of trust of the highest order.
Taylormade at 7.20pm
Albo has Scomo-of-the-bullying-word-salad covered for public speaking AND authenticity.
Sprocket
Wow, I never knew that. Looks like he’s been hard of hearing from a young age.
In fairness, GG does genuinely rank very high on the list of the site’s best donors over time.
Mavis
I’d suggest it’s because she’s a woman. Not in the “the radical left media gives women a free pass” way, just in the sense that people feel more empathetic because of her gender.
National cabinet statement has just been released.
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-statement-56
Ok, here we go.
Angus Taylor – Minister for Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction. No wonder the boffins can’t put out a Admin Orders or even Ministerial List with this dog’s breakfast.
Morrison spoke of ‘sovereign manufacturing’ as part of Angus’s brief. Fuck me, would be more honest to speak of ‘sovereign rorts for mates’. This is not going to end well.
Melissa Price – adds Science and Innovation to Defence Industry. Just shows what a half-arsed reshuffle this is. The 13th Science Minister in 10 years. Melissa was good shilling for the WA mining industry, but she wouldn’t know an atom from an ohm. And into Cabinet – will increase the average IQ.
Alex Hawke – now we’re talking. SQomo’s numbers man. Branch stacker extrodiniaire- wants the trusted ones close by for the potential coup. Eh Tu, Alex? The 3rd paid up Pentecostal in Cabinet.
Ben Morton – another SQomo clone, from Bus Driver to Liberal State Secretary. Apparatchik. Numbers man.
Timmy Wilson – new blood! Junior to Angus, with possibly the job of spinning the 2050 Net Zero Big Lie. Expect to see Timmy take the smarmy lead on this, with Angus shunted into the background.
“Lieutenant General John Frewen, DSC, AM provided a detailed update to National Cabinet on plans to increase vaccination rates amongst disabled and Indigenous Australians. [spin redacted]… additional measures are being enacted to support uptake and reduce hesitancy.”
Encouraging. A failure to address vaccine hesitancy in indigenous, migrant, low-income etc groups will just be another factor which reinforces disparities in health outcomes. Not that I have much faith in the government to do this properly or to even have the desire to.
Michael Yabsley now sinking the stiletto by claiming Gladys resigned to avoid having to allow Bruz to sub for her as Acting Premier.
Anything but that!
Mavissays:
Friday, October 1, 2021 at 7:31 pm
So Aunty’s joined the conga line – quite pathetic. I’m unsure of why Berejyklian engenders so much public empathy. And while she may’ve been an effective premier, it’s alleged she used her position to enrich a sporting club in Wagga with close ties and at the apparent behest of then boyfriend. This negates the good she may’ve done. It’s a breach of trust of the highest order.
This is the sort of thinking that makes millions not want a federal ICAC all you need is an investigation and your guilty.
Scotty trying to signal that yes, the moderates do have a voice in the party. Not in the sense of influencing policy or having their opinion considered, but in the sense of holding nice sounding positions.
Blunt pitch from an American for going with America. Probable very honest, but not nice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmskgk7MJKo&ab_channel=GEOPOP
Indigenous people have had around 230 years in which to learn to distrust whitefellas.
There is no particular reason to believe that this distrust would suddenly disappear because whitefellas think it is in everyone’s best interests to have a couple of jabs. ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help you,’ has yielded some terrible results for Indigenous people over the decades.
Combine that with the usual incompetence in comms (whitefellas talking to whitefellas), the usual failure to understand that getting stuff out to remote and regional locations, and the usual failure in health provision in remote locations, then it is scarcely surprising that Indigenous vax rates are shocking.
Naturally, Morrison is willing to kill Indigenous people at a consequential differential rate as political collateral damage in order to sell his focus-groupped ‘freedoms’.
He is that sort of guy.
Canavan, Christensen, Joyce, McKenzie, McCormack, Kelly, Taylor, Price…. class acts!
Tanya Pilbersek tweets a polite tweet
Thanks @GladysB
for your hard work managing COVID. And thank you for your service.
Only for people to attack Tanya.
Some people need to get over themselves.
For all those who are complaining about low rates of Indigenous vaccination, and yes it’s true in some communities, it’s not universal. I saw yesterday that Walgett & Brewarinna in NSW, majority Indigenous towns, are:
‘One week and half following the Walgett Brewarrina Covid 19 outbreak, at least 79% percent of the population have had their 1st dose of a Covid-19 vaccine and 50% have been double-vaccinated.’
https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/audio/walgett-and-brewarrina-covid-outbreak-prompted-locals-to-get-vaccinated-en-masse
That was 5 days ago. I think it’s in the 80/60s now.
Essentially what all these Liberals are doing is trashing ICAC and praising the object of its investigations.
Mr Stuart Ayres and wife, Marise Payne, on the way to Anthony Pratt’s enclosure at the Melbourne Cup:
Just the sort of Everyman you want to lead the state of NSW.
China’s central government officials have ordered the top state-owned energy companies to secure fuel supplies for winter at all costs as the country battles a power crisis that threatens to hit growth in the world’s second biggest economy.
The vice-premier, Han Zheng, has told energy companies to make sure there is enough fuel to keep the country running and made it clear that Beijing would not tolerate blackouts, according to a report by Bloomberg.
China has been hit by widespread power cuts that have closed or partly closed factories, hitting production and global supply chains.
The crisis has been caused by a confluence of factors, including rising overseas demand as economies reopen, record coal prices, state electricity price controls and tough emissions targets. More than a dozen provinces and regions have been forced to impose curbs on energy usage in recent months.
Han, who supervises the nation’s energy sector and industrial production, was speaking at an emergency meeting this week with officials from Beijing’s state-owned assets regulator and economic planning agency, the report said.
Data published on Thursday showed China’s factory activity contracted unexpectedly in September and for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic took a grip in February 2020. The weaker than expected manufacturing survey reflected the curbs on electricity use and rising prices for commodities and parts.
hazza4257:
Friday, October 1, 2021 at 7:36 pm
[‘Mavis
I’d suggest it’s because she’s a woman. Not in the “the radical left media gives women a free pass” way, just in the sense that people feel more empathetic because of her gender.’]
Perhaps. She does present as being vulnerable at times, and her Armenian background of rags to riches is quite compelling. But she’s now blown it. I say blown it as she would have a very good idea of the evidence against her and subject to the precepts of procedural fairness, the ICAC has probably already made up its mind.
‘Melissa Price – adds Science and Innovation to Defence Industry.’
IMO the worst environment minister in the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments.
One assumes that her input to innovation and to defence industry included some sort of supporting briefing to Morrison to buy nucular submarines.
But who knows?
She is now something like the 8th substantive and/or acting science minister in 8 years. There is absolutely nothing in her CV that shows the slightest knowledge of, or interest in, science.
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.AND.A.LOT.ELSE.BESIDES.
Interesting family interactions today – one relative who is a GP – had a patient this week by the name of Trouble Trouble. He wanted a doctor’s certificate saying he was medically ineligible to be vaccinated.
When denied, he said he was going outside to throw himself in front of a truck. A not unique occurrence apparently, and partially explains why we will never get 100% vaccinations.
Naturally, Morrison is willing to kill Indigenous people at a consequential differential rate as political collateral damage in order to sell his focus-groupped ‘freedoms’.
He is that sort of guy.
So the Prime Minister of Australia is willing to kill people. You really are a piece of work. I should scroll but it is like watching a car crash or something, makes me wonder if people I work with and everyday ALP people think like this. I choose to think not.
Boerwar
Yep. Widespread vaccination will only be achieved through endorsement and administration of the vaccine by community-controlled groups and Aboriginal health services.
And yes, I have no doubt that Scotty won’t waver from his blanket 80% target. He’ll answer questions by talking about supposed efforts to boost vaccination in hesitant groups, but I think it’s safe to say these efforts will mostly fall short and he won’t care one bit.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Friday, October 1, 2021 at 7:56 pm
…
record coal prices
Probable wasn’t such a good idea to start a trade war with your supplier.
7.30 Report canvasing Gladys being called before ICAC to give evidence… along with other members of cabinet who were there ( & party to the dealings ).. “it could develop into an ALL STAR cast”…. this will be foremost in the minds of those voting for new premier…
My Vote is for Rod Stokes.. if he is a clean skin.
Thank you for your videos today, frednk. Thought-provoking watching.
Federal ICAC asap!
“tough emissions targets”
Don’t tell boerwar.
Hh
…
The crisis has been caused by a confluence of factors, including rising overseas demand as economies reopen, record coal prices, state electricity price controls and tough emissions targets.
…’
___________________________
Bullshitters abound..
‘tough emission targets’ and ‘record coal prices’ are clearly not an ‘and’ because tough emission targets REDUCE the demand for coal and hence the price of coal. Increased overseas demand for products does not make production to go down. There might be an argument that production cannot be increased to meet demand but the notion that production FALLSs because of increased demand is cray cray.
The pattern under Xi is for more and more central Party control over China’s economy. The comrades have fucked up big time here. There is zero reason to believe any of the obviously mixed signals coming out to explain the fuck up.
Paul Farrell – the youngish 7.30 State Roundsman – must be feeling vindicated tonight that the person who told him to “Please respect this press conference” has been called to account for why it appears that she did not respect taxpayers’ money.
The only good contribution Tim Wilson has made to the best of my knowledge is support for SSM.
This not so much.
https://twitter.com/timwilsonmp/status/1036405378513231873
‘hazza4257 says:
Friday, October 1, 2021 at 7:59 pm
Boerwar
Yep. Widespread vaccination will only be achieved through…’
_________________
… Morrison pulling his finger out. Don’t hold your breath.
Lol, snap.
Steelydan
“So the Prime Minister of Australia is willing to kill people. You really are a piece of work. I should scroll but it is like watching a car crash or something, makes me wonder if people I work with and everyday ALP people think like this. I choose to think not.”
I don’t think it’s an unreasonable accusation. There are clear and large disparities in vaccine rates across postcodes, by race, by migrant status etc. – there has been very little talk from the government about addressing this.
The only good contribution Tim Wilson has made to the best of my knowledge is support for SSM.
And that was only due to his personal interest in SSM. If he hadn’t been gay himself he probably would have been at the forefront of advocating against it.
btw HH, those are quotes right? Shouldn’t you include the source? As a link or something.
No doubt he has similar views on the sick & disabled, and their place in God’s scheme.
‘DisplayName says:
Friday, October 1, 2021 at 8:02 pm
The crisis has been caused by a confluence of factors, including rising overseas demand as economies reopen, record coal prices, state electricity price controls and tough emissions targets.
“tough emissions targets”
Don’t tell boerwar.’
_______________
Personal snark.
I’m sure she’s a lovely person but that “1000 yard stare” that Marise Payne possesses is quite unsettling. It’s like its the only emotion she has.
‘JM says:
Friday, October 1, 2021 at 8:05 pm
Naturally, Morrison is willing to kill Indigenous people at a consequential differential rate as political collateral damage in order to sell his focus-groupped ‘freedoms’.
He is that sort of guy.
No doubt he has similar views on the sick & disabled, and their place in God’s scheme.’
________________________________
Yep.
Pork Barrel Barilaro’s defamation case has taken a big hit..
“The pattern under Xi is for more and more central Party control over China’s economy. The comrades have fucked up big time here. There is zero reason to believe any of the obviously mixed signals coming out to explain the fuck up.”
I reckon that sums it up.
Thanks for the 1177BC vid the other day. Good stuff!
boerwar
Guilty as charged.