Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan finds Labor back up after a weaker result last fortnight, while Essential Research comes through on nuclear submarines and its usual questions on COVID-19 management.

Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.

The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.

Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.

The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,342 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Perrotet reckons the age pension is too generous. He is sincere about that, at least. Reckons Trump’s election was a win for… well the good people… whatever…
    Perrotet sounds as mad as a cut snake.

  2. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 9:04 pm

    Lurker -So far it seems all space exploration has produced is a new status symbol for billionaires – ie joyrides in space.

    Lets hope all those billions spent lead to something more worthwhile than joyrides for the uber wealthy.
    Oh it will. Zero gravity manufacturing will be the future. As well as moon and asteroid mining:

  3. Something to give Morrison heartburn – the crowd in the stands at Suncorp stadium.

    But…but…Gladys should have had the honour, not Anastascia.

  4. So how do peeps think Biden is doing?

    Seems like a mid-term form slump but perhaps recoverable? Cannot see a scenario short of health crisis where Biden could hand over in 2024 to Kamala atm.

  5. Lars von Trier,
    There is no preponderance of Muslims in the Australian government. There is a preponderance of Pentecostals in the Australian Government now. That makes it more than worthy of discussion.

  6. Meanwhile Murdoch laments how the US has gone down the drain since the election was stolen from Trump:

    Will it fall to the First Lady to say ‘time’s up’ for Joe Biden?

    With 700,000 Covid deaths, 4.2 per cent inflation, a murder spike, immigration chaos and gridlock on Capitol Hill, buyer’s remorse has set in for American voters.
    By SARAH BAXTER (Oz headline)

  7. Well when Trump left office (about 6 weeks after the vaccine was approved) – there was roughly 400K deaths in a total of 10 months since covid became public (March 2020).

    Biden has had another 300K deaths in 9 months with the benefit of the vaccine. Seems pretty likely there will be more deaths under Biden from Covid than under Trump by December 2021 – notwithstanding Biden has had the benefit of the vaccine for all of his term.

  8. Confessionssays:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 6:34 pm
    C@tmomma @ #2219 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 6:31 pm

    Let’s see how Perrottet behaves wrt to the VAD legislation. He could put people off from the get go.


    IMO VAD is no big issue for ordinary people of NSW. It will not change many votes. So he will not put any one who is not already put off by him.

  9. Could be fun c/ the Guardian

    “The leadership upheavals in NSW have now set the stage for a super Saturday of byelections – possibly coinciding with the local government elections on 4 December.

    Berejiklian announced her resignation as premier on Friday after the state’s corruption watchdog disclosed she was under investigation for potential breaches of public trust.

    She will also resign as the MP for Willoughby, a safe seat which the Liberals hold with a 21% margin.

    Constance’s state seat of Bega is safer (sic) with a 7% margin.

    But there could well be other byelections depending on the outcome of the leadership tussle.

    Unless he becomes premier or is given a very senior role, Stokes could decide on a new direction and has been rumoured to have expressed an interest in moving from planning, a portfolio he has steered for some years.

    Stokes holds the safe northern beaches seat of Pittwater, which has a 20% margin against the Greens, who have been chasing the seat.

    Jodi McKay, the former NSW Labor leader, is also said to be considering retiring, triggering a byelection in Strathfield, one of Labor’s most marginal.

    There has also been persistent rumours that the Nationals leader and deputy premier, John Barilaro, is considering a future outside politics, after he attempted an aborted move to federal politics last year.“

  10. I think the best team won on the night, Penrith having the most possession though South’s defence was excellent. The penalty count was unusually low, two apiece. It’s hard to lose by two but that’s how it goes. And the Panthers had a very good season.

  11. LVT
    ” Seems pretty likely there will be more deaths under Biden from Covid than under Trump by December 2021 – notwithstanding Biden has had the benefit of the vaccine for all of his term.”

    The vaccine, yes. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink.

    A great many Trump supporters are even dumber than horses.

  12. Lurkersays:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 6:35 pm
    Vogon Poet says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 6:30 pm

    A quick skim and he’s also anti- : abortion; euthanasia ; climate change…
    Sign the bring back gladys petition
    Sounds a bit like the Labor Deputy Premier of Victoria James Merlino.

    It is hard to believe. But If true, they hid his social credentials well. But does he belong to Pentecostal church or Opus die~

  13. Seems pretty likely there will be more deaths under Biden from Covid than under Trump by December 2021 – notwithstanding Biden has had the benefit of the vaccine for all of his term.

    One of the most disgusting posts of the year. Lars knows full well that every shock jock, televangelist, GOP legislator, GOP governor, and GOP public figure, right up to Trump himself have been actively promoting resistance to the vaccine.

    Trump in particular has not lifted a finger to help, even though he could legitimately take a lot of credit for fast-tracking the vaccine. Simultaneously, governors like those in Florida and Texas are passing laws to make even wearing masks illegal.

    Lars blames Biden – who is dealing with the doubly virulent Delta virus plus the active opposition of GOP psychopaths promoting sickness and death for nakedly political purposes. In effect he blames Biden for the redneck stupidity of a demographic that hates him, because it is mostly unvaccinated rednecks and deluded psychos who are doing the dying.

    Disgusting Lars. About as low as I’ve ever seen you sink.

  14. I’m sorry Kakuru – wasn’t it Biden who promised to be the President of the “United States of America”?

  15. Lars

    Surely the point has to be – if you want to be secular – you have to be secular all round.

    Labor peeps on here attack evangelicals yet won’t criticise Islamists – because that is a significant membership base in today’s ALP.

    Do you see the inconsistency?

    Why do you think Palestine is Islamist?

    More voters turning towards the fringes
    Support for ‘others’ has risen to a post-election high 13 per cent in the latest Newspoll as the two-party-preferred vote remained unchanged at 53-47 per cent in Labor’s favour.

  17. D&M there hasn’t been an election in Palestine for 15 years because Hamas would win a poll if one was actually held.

    Most peeps would say Hamas qualifies as Islamist.

  18. Who knew Lars von Trier uses their undoubted intelligence to be a slimy snake-in-the-grass?


    And it’s the seemingly innocuous way they slip the shiv in-between the ribs of their targets. It just oozes slime.

  19. Vaccine rollout


    67.1% fully vaccinated; 88.4% first dose


    56.5% fully vaccinated; 79.4% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over

    – SMH

  20. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 8:00 pm
    It’s ironic the obsession with religion in politics – there was a time Labor was regarded as suspect because Catholics supposedly took orders from Rome.

    Presumably politicians prioritise winning over whatever their personal belief system is or was.

    Is it stinging you when someone says LNP is taken over by religious right?

  21. As for Perrotet, he is a gormless, god bothering, bloodless fool. A total halfwit.
    Would prefer Stokes, but he is far too moderate (sensible).

  22. Lars Von Trier

    D&M there hasn’t been an election in Palestine for 15 years because Hamas would win a poll if one was actually held.

    Most peeps would say Hamas qualifies as Islamist.

    So, if you are unfortunate enough, as a human being, to live in an authoritarian state, then you are lost to “Western Civilisation”.

    So, anyone who wants to help Palestinians is Islamist?

  23. Newspoll

    TPP: L/NP 47 (0) ALP 53 (0)

    Primary: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 11 (+1) ON 2 (-1) OTH 13 (+1)

    Preferred PM: Morrison 47 (0) Albanese 34 (-1)

    Albanese: Approve 37 (0) Disapprove 47 (-1)

    Morrison: Approve 48 (+2) Disapprove 49 (-1)

    Preferred PM: Morrison 47 (-3) Albanese 35 (+1)

  24. Also, Lars, you say you were a Labor staffer for someone in the NSW state government?

    If this is true, thank god you have buggered off to your true home, the Coalition.

  25. Anyway there’s a good lesson for Albanese in tonight’s game. That is, you may go into the match as warm favourites but once in the contest with the other team, who looked like they were on their last legs, you still have to play your guts out to win. Because the other guys want to win as much as you do.

  26. James Dunstan
    Perotter sounds like he is a far right wing version of J Howard. Totally opposed to SSM, abortion, social reforms, climate action, foreign aid, asylum seekers being treated properly, welfare spending. Good luck NSW – you will need it.

    It tires me to state it again, but I will… The Greens will not stint in their efforts to support the re-election of the reactionary Perrottet-led LNP in NSW. They are on the same page with respect to the fundamental question: who should govern NSW? Labor or not? They will say not and they will work their guts out to prevent it.

  27. Henry says:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 9:57 pm
    As for Perrotet, he is a gormless, god bothering, bloodless fool. A total halfwit.

    He’s also about to become Premier. He’s a thorough-going reactionary. Those who do not want to be ruled forever by reactionaries had better do something practical to change politics as usual in NSW.

  28. Inspiring consistency from the Vic Libs todays.

    Matthew Guy. I blame Dan Andrews.

    Reporter. Should Scott Morrison take some of the blame?

    Matthew Guy. I’m not here to play the blame game

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