Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
Alan Kohler has just estimated that the real unployment figure is now 15%, which was the figure estimated by Treasury if there was no Jobkeeper last year. And guess what?
mikehilliard at 7:18 pm
Try using Incognito. It opens no prob for me then.
At last! Someone who can actually sing performing the national anthem!
Wallabies, Springboks and Bunnies to make a herbivore trifecta ?
It’s going to be interesting who will be the bigger clone of Trump
Morrison was worried about Gladys out doing him in the Trump stakes, Perrottet is in another level
Pentecostals made up about 1.1% of the Australian population in 2016, about 1/90, growing. Might be a bit higher now, but not by a lot.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia#Census_data
Steve777
And what percentage of the ministry do they hold?
There is some hope re Scotty’s ‘Penteloons’ and the religious fundies. What they did to WA and Victoria.
.
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Scott Morrison’s Pentecostal beliefs have affected Liberal Party policies
……………………..The infiltration of the Liberal Party by religious fundamentalists is not new. Prior to the last State Election, the Victorian branch was actively recruiting members from evangelical sects and the Mormons. It ultimately led to the wholesale rejection of the party at the ballot box. The Labor landslide was so big, it will likely keep them out of power in Victoria for at least another decade.
It had a similar effect in Western Australia. But only at the Federal level have they attained government and the means to overtly and covertly implement their religious ideology as political policy.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/5-top-story-of-2020-scott-morrisons-pentecostal-beliefs-have-affected-liberal-party-policies,14656
And what percentage of the ministry do they hold?
Well, it’s at least 2/30 —> 6.7%, maybe more.
https://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/parliamentary_handbook/current_ministry_list
EDIT: Actually, make that 17%.
”Morrison is not the only Pentecostal in the Liberal Party — other co-religionists include Stuart Robert, the Minister for the NDIS, Steve Irons, Andrew Hastie and Ian Goodenough.”
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-scott-morrisons-pentecostal-beliefs-have-affected-liberal-party-policies,13502
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/30/morgan-54-46-to-labor-7/comment-page-46/#comment-3718499
The 2021 census data on religion is due out in June next year:
https://www.abs.gov.au/census/2021-data-releases
It’s ironic the obsession with religion in politics – there was a time Labor was regarded as suspect because Catholics supposedly took orders from Rome.
Presumably politicians prioritise winning over whatever their personal belief system is or was.
The bustards are on the march everywhere .These are headlines from last 2 years.
.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/04/27/scott-morrison-and-the-seven-mountains-mandate-how-the-pm-is-changing-australia-in-gods-name/
On the broader issue of Maguire’s and Berejiklian’s secret relationship, the alleged corrupt conduct goes to the root of the democratic process – free and fair elections – in that the public monies paid to Australian Clay Target Association and to the Riverina Conservatorium of Music in 2018 could be perceived by a reasonable person of buying votes for Maguire’s re-election, not to mention that it’s alleged he later attempted to profit from the shooting club’s fitout.
Yabsley, a minister in the Greiner Government, provides an objective critique of Berejiklian’s fall from grace and considers the reasons why a good many think she was hard done by:
[‘From the time Gladys Berejiklian took the baton from Mike Baird as premier of NSW in 2017 until her resignation on Friday, she captured hearts and minds like few other political leaders. At no point was this more in focus than in October 2020, in the wake of a scarifying cross-examination by the Independent Commission Against Corruption that revealed she had been in a relationship with the disgraced former member for Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire.
So why was the public refrain after this ICAC hearing “poor Gladys”? Other mere mortals would have been ripped apart limb by limb within hours of the dopey Daryl bombshell being dropped.
Part of the explanation simply reflects the electorate’s discernible love affair with a modest, believable, hard-working, no-nonsense daughter of Armenian migrants, for whom English was a second language. Berejiklian smashed the glass ceiling without having to remind us ad nauseam how difficult that is to achieve. To quote former prime minister John Howard, “Gladys is the real thing”. Being a show pony or pretender is simply not part of her persona.
But the romance with the electorate was not quite as benign and organic as this picture paints. Nor was the love affair with Maguire. As black clouds started to gather after her October 2020 ICAC appearance, Berejiklian embarked on a trail of media interviews that positioned her as unlucky in love. In an award-winning performance that will be used in media training circles for decades to come, she skilfully weaponised the very issue for which others would have seen their careers vaporised. “I love him but I will never speak to him again,” the unvarnished Berejiklian said, as the refrain of “poor Gladys” got louder.
Then came the biggest neutraliser of all: “everyone has had a Daryl in their lives.” This bowled over the last line of resistance to Berejiklian’s explanation about how all this went so wrong. “Yes,” the electorate nodded furiously. “We all have had a Daryl”, so leave our Gladys alone. To retail this home-spun message, Berejiklian had to do only one thing. Be Gladys. She passed the pub test with flying colours. But the ICAC test is another beast all together.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/poor-gladys-berejiklian-passed-the-pub-test-but-the-icac-is-another-matter-20211003-p58wu4.html
Is this a reflection of Islamist influence in Labor?
https://www.queenslandlabor.org/page/labor-friends-of-palestine/
Lars
Daniel Andrews, as Health Minister, supported measures which were against his religion.
He said, “I’m not a Catholic Health Minister, I’m a Victorian Health Minister.”
It’s possible to put one’s faith to one side in order to do one’s job.
So Zoomster, presumably the evangelicals in the Liberal Party can do the same?
…I’ve just come across this site.
https://www.carnegiechurch.com/2021/02/24/the-truth-about-daniel-andrews/
‘Nobody in this country has a more radical and aggressive social engineering agenda than Daniel Andrews.’
Actually makes me like the man even more…
Lars
Presumably. I’ve never suggested otherwise.
It would be dangerous if they didn’t, however.
Well Lars, some of us don’t appreciate having the religious views of a minority foisted on the rest of us: creationism, abortion, same-sex marriage, homosexuality, assisted dying. Simply because of something they read in a book written two thousand years ago.
At the moment, the Christian conservatives in the Coalition in NSW are trying to prevent a conscience vote on assisted dying in the state parliament. Sure, they have a right to oppose euthanasia. But they shouldn’t have a right to prevent the parliament from debating the bill and holding a vote. This is not a theocracy.
Lars
I don’t think it’s their religion per se that’s the problem. It’s their promotion of brother believers beyond their level of competence.
It is a pity that the pentecostals in the federal government don’t seem to be at all concerned that they are part and parcel of the most corrupt federal government since Federation.
Lars
Or not as the case may be.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/04/27/scott-morrison-and-the-seven-mountains-mandate-how-the-pm-is-changing-australia-in-gods-name/
Steve777 @ #2259 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 7:50 pm
@BK … assuming the background rate of happy clappers 1.5% the T-Stat for having 4 out of 23 in the Cabinet by chance is 6.3. No surprise that we can reject the null.
Boerwar at 8:15 pm
Their presence and the level of corruption probably not a coincidence.
Maybe evangelicals are stacking Liberal party branches for the fun of it.
Is this a new trend – being associated with SfM at election time is regarded as political poison?
DisplayName at 8:28 pm
Well it beats stamp collecting.
Well, someone’s bullshitting, because Morrison claims to have personally asked Constance to stand, as a mate.
It’s only the last few years that Labor has managed in a few jurisdictions to overcome the religious conservatives in their own ranks on issues like abortion law reform, sex worker reform, euthanasia and same sex marriage. These were some of the issues that drove the rise of the Greens.
😆 Panellist on Sky arguing McGowan deliberately slowing down vaccine roll out in WA so that he can keep the borders closed and so keep SfM out of WA during the Federal election. A cunning plan indeed. OMG!! two other panelists are also on board.
I wonder how much time Constance has for people who don’t hold hoses.
Las Von Trier
You are conflating religion with national identity.
Why do you equate Palestine to Islam?
And are you aware, that Islam, just like Christianity, has a broad spectrum of sects and believers?
Since when did it become a crime in Australian politics to support a country whose national religion is Islam?
Anyway, keep it up Lars von Trier, you are reminding us of the Liberal Party’s true Anti Muslim colours.
Snap, D & M.
There are plenty of christian Palestinians.
Well kakuru – according to media reports Perottet has agreed to a conscience vote on euthanasia so your point is not proven.
I do not EVER watch Rugby League, but I am, watching tonight’s match to understand why the cheers are erupting outside.
But bloody hell, what a close game – 8 all!
Go the Rabbitohs!!
Yes, Work to Rule, an emphatic nixing of the null hypothesis.
A virtual theocracy.
Yes but as you would well realise, that fact about Christian Palestinians, poroti, was not what Lars von Trier was alluding to.
Of course we have Friends of Israel in Labor too. Clearly the ALP Right are represented here.
It reminds us of the 30s, when the Labor Left supported the Spanish Republican government and the Labor Catholic Right were rather keen on old Franco and his fascists. Which could have led to another split if Curtin had not avoided the issue.
Surely the point has to be – if you want to be secular – you have to be secular all round.
Labor peeps on here attack evangelicals yet won’t criticise Islamists – because that is a significant membership base in today’s ALP.
Do you see the inconsistency?
poroti
Why do you do that to yourself? 🙂
Is this a reflection of Islamist influence in Labor?
No.
Simon Banks
@SimonBanksHB
·
1m
So from what we know
@Dom_Perrottet
wants to stab
@gladysb
‘s #covid legacy (whether you agree with her or not) in the back
He’s wanted #Covid to “let rip” for months
And the health system be damned
And the bodies to pile up and up and up.
Would this really make sense now, given the “plan” starts to be implemented on the 11th?…too late to let it rip.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 8:49 pm
Surely the point has to be – if you want to be secular – you have to be secular all round.
________
Unfortunately that is true. Secularism means inclusiveness but once you have religious groupings gaining power in this secular system they will build bases, hire co religionists, advance each others agendas and careers and ultimately form factions.
So in the end, a secular system allows sectarianism to grow strong.
All the Palestinians I know are quite secular.
BTW, there is a difference between IslamIC and IslamIST.
Keeping an eye on what is happening in other countries..
Portugal is still showing a steady decline and is now at 42 infections per 100k people per week.
Versus 52 for Australia (and that’s skewed)
Reason: 85% fully vaccinated – and that’s of the entire population. (Its 106% in Scomo units).
It won’t be long before Elon Musk launches his first Starship into orbit. What a game changer that will be.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-30/elon-musk-starship-to-get-back-to-the-moon-and-on-to-mars/100498076
One for Jaeger
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/spain-volcano-eruption-la-palma/100510960
Lurker -So far it seems all space exploration has produced is a new status symbol for billionaires – ie joyrides in space.
Lets hope all those billions spent lead to something more worthwhile than joyrides for the uber wealthy.