Crying Fowler

A plan to move Kristina Keneally from the Senate to the western Sydney seat of Fowler looks set to solve one problem for Labor while creating another. Also featured: a Senate vacancy and a state poll from South Australia.

Before we proceed, please note a) the post below on electoral developments in California, Canada and Germany courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, and b) the fact that tomorrow is the day of the by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Daly, where the Country Liberal Party is defending a margin of 1.2%.

Now to the week’s big item of federal election news, which is that Kristina Keneally is set to be parachuted from her current position in the Senate to the western Sydney seat of Fowler, which will be vacated with the retirement of Chris Hayes, who holds it on a 14.0% margin. The Australian reports this will be accomplished by fiat of head office, without a ballot of local party members.

Moving Keneally to the House of Representatives resolves a difficulty arising from the 2016 double dissolution, at which three of the four elected Labor Senators were allocated full terms of six years, which will expire in the middle of next year. This includes two members of the Right – Sam Dastyari, whom Kristina Keneally replaced after his resignation in February 2018, and Deborah O’Neill – and Jenny McAllister of the Left. Since factional arrangements reserve second position on the ticket for the Left, either O’Neill or Keneally faced delegation to third position, which has not been a winning proposition for Labor at a half-Senate election since 2007. As reported in the Sydney Morning Herald, the power of O’Neill’s backers in the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association appears likely to secure her the top spot, although The Australian cites unidentified Keneally supporters saying she was confident of beating her.

The use of Fowler as a backstop for Keneally comes with the substantial difficulty that the electorate boasts the nation’s highest proportion of non-English speakers, in large part owing to the presence within it of the Vietnamese enclave of Cabramatta. As such, Labor appeared to have a promising successor lined up in Tu Le, a 30-year-old lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees. By contrast, Keneally lives in a $1.8 million property in Sydney’s northern beaches. Le had the backing of Hayes and, according to another source cited by The Australian, would have won a rank-and-file ballot if one were held. The ABC reports senior front-bencher Tony Burke shares Hayes’ displeasure at the development, although it also notes that others in the Right felt Hayes “had no right to try to act as a kingmaker or name his replacement publicly”.

In other Labor preselection news, Tom Richardson of InDaily reports the South Australian Senate vacancy created by the death of Alex Gallacher last week is likely to be filled by Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and convenor of the state branch’s Left faction. According to the report, a Senate seat was set to pass from Right to Left in the factional deals arising from the abolition of the federal seat of Port Adelaide at the 2019 election. Gallacher’s death may have had the effect of preserving Steve Georganas’s position in the seat of Adelaide, which might otherwise have been used to create the requisite vacancy by providing a refuge for Right-aligned Senator Marielle Smith.

Also from South Australia, the Australia Institute has published a Dynata poll of state voting intention, although it was conducted back in July from a modest sample of 599. It suggests Steven Marshall’s Liberal government might struggle at the March election, recording 38% support to 34% for Labor, 10% for the Greens, 5% for SA Best and 12% for the rest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,894 comments on “Crying Fowler”

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  1. Local COVID watch: Waterloo / Redfern.

    Well, the NSW government is no longer telling us where COVID is occurring in our local communities, so I guess communities need to share information.

    An aged accomodation facility for indigent men around the corner from me seems to have been struck by COVID. In fact it looks like a tragedy in the making.

    I regularly interact with the men there. They come out on the street with their walkers and in their wheel chairs, to enjoy the sun, and to interact.

    One guy carries a ghetto blaster with the greatest hits of the 1960s to 1980s. Always good listening. While I do not know their names, I smile, or stop to have a chat as I walk my dog, or head to Aldi or Coles to shop. More than a few are indigenous.

    One man is well know to us locals. We call him “dollar man”. He asks, as we approach, “Spare a dollar, one dollar, one dollar”. I always keep coins for him.

    Anyway, I have just realised it is quite a few days since I have seen anyone from the facility outside.

    A few days ago I saw an ambulance pulled up outside the garage, with a large number of people in the garage dressed in full COVID protection gear. I was a bit concerned, but figured it was probably COVID testing or vaccination.

    Today things look much worse. Wilson security had taken charge of the building, staking it out, and there are those ubiquitous “administrators” outside (the ones with their IDs on teir lanyards around their necks)* meeting cars as they pull up.

    The garage is still full of people in full COVID dress. But today, there was something really weird going on.

    There was a document shredding truck backed into the garage, with people in full COVID dress tipping yellow wheelie bins full of stuff (documents?) into the back of the large shredder truck.

    There was a commercial garbage truck parked in the lane.

    Does anyone know what to make of these strange happenings.

    I really feel for the lovely guys in the residence. They would be an incredibly vulnerable population.

    * Yeah, I know. In the end I gave in, and used the lanyard around my neck with my ID, so I did not lose my ID. It was necessary once they locked up all the staff offices.

  3. Julian Hill, MP:
    “In NSW, doctors & nurses have been told by hospital managers that life-saving support may not be provided, or potentially even be withdrawn, for those with a median age of 72 during the “overwhelming” phase of the Delta outbreak – forecast for late Oct & early Nov.” #auspol

  4. Taking away the deaths recorded in Federally funded aged care facilities, NSW has now overtaken Victoria in number of Covid-19 fatalities, an ominous milestone.

    Victoria’s total toll is 824 (655 aged care + 169) vs
    NSW on 233 (46 aged care + 187)

  6. D & M

    It brings suspicions that
    (a) the real case numbers are being hidden because hospitals can’t cope, and
    (b) how many are dying alone at home, not because they don’t seek help, but because they try and fail.

  10. Griff

    This could of course change, but the numbers outside the 12 LGA’s of concern have never massively taken off like the 12 had/have – the demographics in terms of family size/essential employees may differ – plus the new areas are being hit harder with 20% or so more vaccine distributed.

  11. [Roe v Wade: What happened to the ‘baby who divided America’?

    “I would never, ever thank her for not aborting me.” That is what the daughter of “Jane Roe” – the woman whose Supreme Court case, Roe v Wade, led to the legalisation of abortion across the US – told her birth mother, in one of their only interactions.

    The conversation took place on the phone and became so heated that a planned meeting between the two was shelved. When “Jane Roe” – real name Norma McCorvey – died of heart failure in 2017, she had never met the daughter known until two days ago only as “Baby Roe”.

    On Thursday, 48 years after McCorvey won her lawsuit, “Baby Roe” was finally named as Shelley Lynn Thornton, now a 51-year-old mother of three.

    Thornton’s identity was revealed, along with those words – words that like everything connected to one of the most divisive cases in US history, will be dissected by the pro-life and the pro-choice communities. Words that should not be weaponised by either side of the abortion debate, but be seen for what they are: a real human reaction to extraordinary personal circumstances.

    Because when Norma McCorvey appeared on the steps of the Supreme Court on Jan 22, 1973 with women’s rights lawyer Gloria Allred to celebrate the ruling that “the Constitution of the United States protects a pregnant woman’s liberty to choose to have an abortion” – it was already too late. The 22-year-old Dallas waitress, mired in poverty and addiction, had long since given birth and relinquished her daughter for adoption.

    So “Baby Roe” lived, loved, married and became a mother herself – remaining anonymous, until now. She has finally decided to speak to a journalist, Joshua Prager, for his new book The Family Roe: An American Story.

    But anyone hoping that Thornton will be the one to untangle the ethical, moral and political knot that has contorted American opinion for over half a century will be disappointed.

    The decision to unveil herself now comes not in reaction to the draconian ban on abortion after six weeks pushed through by Texas’s Republican-dominated legislature last month – upheld by the Supreme Court last week – and not because she has become the living incarnation of the pro-life community’s argument against abortion, merely by having lived. Instead, it was for the simple reason that she wants to put a lifetime of “secrets and lies” behind her.

    Thornton’s own views on abortion are not so simple. She claims not to identify with either side, revealing that while she chose not to terminate an unplanned pregnancy at the age of 20 – abortion was “not part of who I was” – she has eventually come to the conclusion that religion and politics shouldn’t interfere with a woman’s right to choose.

    This is a fitting outcome for the United States of Contradictions, where an implacable partisanship means you have a left who are pro-choice (unless that choice involves COVID-19 vaccinations) and a right who are pro-life, right up until the moment you’re born, and your existence is under daily threat thanks to the gun laws.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/roe-v-wade-what-happened-to-the-baby-who-divided-america-20210912-p58qwm.html

  12. Quasar says:
    Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 4:20 pm
    Julian Hill, MP:
    “In NSW, doctors & nurses have been told by hospital managers that life-saving support may not be provided, or potentially even be withdrawn, for those with a median age of 72 during the “overwhelming” phase of the Delta outbreak – forecast for late Oct & early Nov.” #auspol

    Apart from the total inhumanity of this, it is a horrific indictment on the politics of “freedom” as practised by Gladys and SfM.

  14. Waleed Aly “The politician’s job is not to follow health advice. Their job is to take health advice, consider it, place it in its proper context.”

    I am glad that I do not watch Insiders. Just saying.

  16. “ Waleed Aly “The politician’s job is not to follow health advice. Their job is to take health advice, consider it, place it in its proper context.”

    I am glad that I do not watch Insiders. Just saying.”

    When I saw that part of insiders I was moved to remark that I hated Waleed a few pages back.

    ‘The proper context’ is – for nsw – about 4 to 6 weeks to get from fake 70% to 85% (which if nsw used the next 9 to 11 weeks to vaccinate high school kids from 12-15 could mean 85% of 85% or over 72% of total population). THAT’s the proper context in which Bruz and the Killer overrode the health advice – 4 to 6 weeks.

    ‘The proper context’ for 5 other jurisdictions is that they don’t have Covid, or a health system crisis. Their vaccination numbers are ticking over nicely. They are as ‘open’ and ‘free’ as they want to be. They have no desire to ‘live with Covid’ before they have to. They can get their ducks in a row before then.

    For the ACT and Victoria it will end up much like NSW – 11 weeks until 85 of 85% is reached. With far more cautious reopenings than Brus’s plans on behalf of the business lobby groups that have captured the nsw government.

    That’s the ‘proper context’ Waleed!

  18. Shellbell @ Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 4:36 pm

    That is the funny thing actually. There is less exceptionalism than seen at first glance. The key difference is that COVID-19 established an initial foothold in the 12 LGA’s. A back of the envelope calculation, since July 18 when non-critical retail closed, case rates external moved from 10 to 400. But internal only moved from 100 to 1100. Doubling time has been faster outside the 12 LGA’s…

  19. Sorry folks! No beaches for you who live in the “LGAs of concern”. Bondi beach today:

    NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant said that while images of the large crowds concerned her, but that “in reality, outdoor environments if people are keeping away from each other, are probably the safest environments.”

    “I would like to see that people are really respectful and they are adhering to the public health orders as they move about, if they are walking along the beach,” Dr Chant said.

    She also acknowledged she was asking a lot of those in south-western Sydney and Western Sydney who do not have any access to any beaches due to the constraints of their 5km radius.
    (SMH updates at 16:34)

  21. Douglas and Milko,
    If you are in Tanya Plibersek’s electorate, you could report what you saw to her office tomorrow morning.

    Or, it could simply have been a Sunday afternoon documents shredding call by the shredding truck.

    Maybe you could ring the facility itself tomorrow morning when someone is in the office?

    I’m just saying that conspiracy theories have a way of confounding the best of us. Knowledge is key. 🙂

  22. As the coronavirus continues to surge across the United States, hospitals are again filling up with ill COVID-19 patients. And the vast majority of those patients are unvaccinated, as two new charts help make exceedingly clear.

    One of those charts shows that from January 24 to July 24, vaccinated individuals were hospitalized with COVID-19 at a much lower cumulative rate than unvaccinated individuals. And the difference in rates between the two groups has only grown over time. By late July, a total of about 26 adults per 100,000 vaccinated people had been hospitalized for COVID-19. That’s compared with about 431 hospitalized people for every 100,000 unvaccinated individuals — a rate roughly 17 times as high as for those who were vaccinated. The data come from 13 states, including California, Georgia and Utah.

    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-coronavirus-vaccines-hospital-cases-rates-unvaccinated

  23. “ In NSW, doctors & nurses have been told by hospital managers that life-saving support may not be provided, or potentially even be withdrawn, for those with a median age of 72 during the “overwhelming” phase of the Delta outbreak – forecast for late Oct & early Nov”
    I don’t believe that for a second.
    1. No hospital manager would ever admit that even if it was true.
    2. No modelling shows it getting that bad.

  25. Cud Chewer @ Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 5:23 pm

    But of course! Just trying to gently explain to those that are less convinced of the effectiveness of restrictions and who perhaps even think that we can vaccinate our way out of the pandemic 😉

  29. Oh look who just tweeted!

    NSW's outbreak appears to be peaking, which is great. However, I think the statewide cases may plateau for a while before decreasing much. 1/— Chris Billington (@Chrisbilbo) September 12, 2021

    If you see this- Awesome work Chrisbilbo and feel free to say hello on here anytime! 🙂

  30. lizzie @ #1647 Sunday, September 12th, 2021 – 4:04 pm

    L E A H
    @33Dela
    1/3My husband is into his 8th day of #covid19. He’s been coughing up blood since Sunday. At the start #NSWHealth told me directly to call an ambulance if this occurred along with a list of other symptoms that equal hospitalisation…

    2/3 we called at the onset of these symptoms & we’ve been told “this is normal, continue home care,” & #NSWHealth will call him daily. He’s received two calls in total and we’re in day 8…
    L E A H
    @33Dela
    ·
    Sep 10
    3/3 To be told to get him to the hospital at the onset of these symptoms, to then be told “it’s normal, keep him home,” is really confusing and makes him feel unsafe at the contradictory messaging. is he fine? Or is the system collapsing?
    @NSWHealth

    This gentleman is now in hospital.

    It has been terrifying. he’s now had a Bronchoscope and then suction to clear his airways, had a few injections to support his lungs and Heparin to thin his blood and he’s receiving oxygen. I’m exhausted but relieved he’s in hospital finally.

    The moral of this story is, just go to hospital if that’s where you think your loved one should be. Don’t listen to some numpty from NDSW Health trying to keep the hospitalisation numbers down.

  32. ratsak @ #1642 Sunday, September 12th, 2021 – 3:48 pm

    Some observations on this Fowler storm in a teacup.

    I’ve previously had a little to do with Chris Hayes including but not limited to spending the day manning the booths for him in Fowler on a couple of occasions. Nice enough bloke, nice family. Always got along famously with his wife.

    1. Chris does not and never has in the time he’s represented Fowler lived anywhere near the electorate. His home is about 23km drive to the nearest point in Fowler, and it’s only that close because the last redistribution moved the electorate south.
    2. For context someone living in Hunters Hill would also be approximately 23km drive to the nearest point in Fowler.
    3. Chris was parachuted into Fowler because Laurie Ferguson wanted his seat of Werriwa.
    4. That decision may not have been super popular with the local rank and file back in the day, but it never really risked making the seat seriously at risk.
    5. Chris’ vote was down a full 15% on primaries in his first run in the seat. This was 2010 though so there was a general hit to Labor in that election and even with that a 53% primary isn’t going to keep a member awake at night.
    6. But to his credit I believe Chris worked his electorate like a marginal and would pretty much be there at the opening of an envelope. So much so that whilst Labor was getting a thrashing in 2013 he picked up an 8% swing on primaries and 2pp.
    7. He picked up a further 4.5% 2pp in 2016, but gave back 3.5% of that last election.

    My personal preference is generally for local rank and file preselection but that can run the serious risk of local feifdoms wasting safe seats on time servers, so I’m always aware it’s not necessarily the way to go.

    I have no particular opinion on the specifics of this argument, but the idea that a guy who was parachuted in is going to be the champion of the rank and file is amusing. As is the idea that parachuting in a fairly high profile member who lives 23km outside the electorate (and will very likely move to the electorate) is going to do significantly worse than the current fairly anonymous parachuted in member who lives 23km outside of the electorate and never made any effort to move, or an anonymous local.

    There are pros and cons to both KK and Ms Le or indeed any other potential candidate (there’s absolutely no reason to assume that Ms Le would be endorsed other than her and the Hayes’ say so). So it’s legitimate to hold differing opinions on the matter. But there’s an awful lot of concern trolling and blatant hypocrisy going on with this.

    Which of course is just politics par for the course.

    I do however much much much prefer the idea of the Libs and their media running dogs making a hullabaloo about this non issue to anyone much at the next election as opposed to Death Tax lies. The scum are going to try and turn something into a winner. If this is the most Labor gives them to run with I’ll be happy.

    Earlwood really needs to read this. Then maybe he might cease being a smart arse.

    #pigsmightfly

  33. Doesn’t look like this Labor debacle is going away …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-12/tanya-plibersek-on-insiders-kristina-keneally-fowler-tu-le/100455340

    Senator’s Keneally’s switch to the lower house has angered some within the parliamentary Labor party, but few MPs have been willing to publicly criticise it.

    Ms Aly, who grew up in the electorate of Fowler and was the first Muslim woman elected to federal Parliament, said she wasn’t willing to say silent.

    “Diversity and equality and multiculturalism can’t just be a trope that Labor pulls out and parades while wearing a sari and eating some kung pao chicken to make ourselves look good,” she told the ABC.

    “This is a huge failure for Labor when it comes to diversity and inclusion.

    “Frankly, for the Labor Party to be in a position where they are pushing aside a community representative from one of the most multicultural electorates is hypocrisy as far as I’m concerned.”

    You gotta hand it to the NSW Labor Right. They certainly know how to screw things up! 🙁

  34. I never try to guess whether someone is posting under a new name. Possibly because I’m not as smart as some others, but also because I don’t really care much.

  41. ”
    Mavissays:
    Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 3:54 pm
    [‘In case you haven’t noticed, there are fast growing divisions within the community between those in favour of the use of pandemic border closures and lockdowns and those who oppose their imposition.

    Yet, the prime minister having breached these restrictions last weekend is an affront to us all.]

    Yes, and entirely in keeping with Morrison’s carriage of his office: he thinks he’s above the law. Next time he pulls this stunt, Barr should deny his travel. After all, it’s not that he went to Sydney to discuss war plans with Blinken. His travel was almost certainly predicated on seeing Jen & the girls on Father’s Day.
    ”

    Mavis

    If you already don’t know, acvording to some News reports Morrison is in Sydney this weekend and will be here till next Wednesday.

  44. @RonniSalt
    ·
    3h

    The Liberal party internal pollsters are currently quizzing groups in regional QLD, regional NSW and WA.

    They’re looking at micro-targeting older women with a health strategy aimed at aged care and general health.

    They see them as a sector to manipulate.

  45. KK can twist, turn, dance, tweet, smile but Fowler electorate is saying goodbye to ALP…putting my money on how much KK will lose.. when KK said she is going to run in Fowler, she just lost 16% of the votes, when she say she believes in multicultural she just lost another 20% of the votes, when she is churning out motherhood statements she lost another 18% of the votes, she did not live in fowler, maybe another 7% loss. Chris Hayes takes years to build up the margin and KK take months to demolish it.

  46. ”
    ratsaksays:
    Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 4:14 pm
    “Wondered where you’d got to.”

    Was having a few years of good mental health.

    But alas it seems mockdown has driven me back to the asylum with the rest of you lunatics.
    ”

    +1

  47. lizzie @ #1697 Sunday, September 12th, 2021 – 5:53 pm

    @RonniSalt
    ·
    3h

    The Liberal party internal pollsters are currently quizzing groups in regional QLD, regional NSW and WA.

    They’re looking at micro-targeting older women with a health strategy aimed at aged care and general health.

    They see them as a sector to manipulate.

    Would that be the ‘Older Women’ who the Coalition have allowed to become the group providing the greatest increase in Homelessness numbers in Australia?

    Who the Coalition’s changes to Medicare have seen them pay more out of pocket costs for pathology and radiology tests that they used to get for free?

    That are one of the largest demographics of Unemployed in Australia who have to live on the miserly JobSeeker?

    Who, if they need Aged Care are subject to the depredations of For Profit Aged Care Providers that see them slowly starving to death?

    OoooooKkkkkk.

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