Crying Fowler

A plan to move Kristina Keneally from the Senate to the western Sydney seat of Fowler looks set to solve one problem for Labor while creating another. Also featured: a Senate vacancy and a state poll from South Australia.

Before we proceed, please note a) the post below on electoral developments in California, Canada and Germany courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, and b) the fact that tomorrow is the day of the by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Daly, where the Country Liberal Party is defending a margin of 1.2%.

Now to the week’s big item of federal election news, which is that Kristina Keneally is set to be parachuted from her current position in the Senate to the western Sydney seat of Fowler, which will be vacated with the retirement of Chris Hayes, who holds it on a 14.0% margin. The Australian reports this will be accomplished by fiat of head office, without a ballot of local party members.

Moving Keneally to the House of Representatives resolves a difficulty arising from the 2016 double dissolution, at which three of the four elected Labor Senators were allocated full terms of six years, which will expire in the middle of next year. This includes two members of the Right – Sam Dastyari, whom Kristina Keneally replaced after his resignation in February 2018, and Deborah O’Neill – and Jenny McAllister of the Left. Since factional arrangements reserve second position on the ticket for the Left, either O’Neill or Keneally faced delegation to third position, which has not been a winning proposition for Labor at a half-Senate election since 2007. As reported in the Sydney Morning Herald, the power of O’Neill’s backers in the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association appears likely to secure her the top spot, although The Australian cites unidentified Keneally supporters saying she was confident of beating her.

The use of Fowler as a backstop for Keneally comes with the substantial difficulty that the electorate boasts the nation’s highest proportion of non-English speakers, in large part owing to the presence within it of the Vietnamese enclave of Cabramatta. As such, Labor appeared to have a promising successor lined up in Tu Le, a 30-year-old lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees. By contrast, Keneally lives in a $1.8 million property in Sydney’s northern beaches. Le had the backing of Hayes and, according to another source cited by The Australian, would have won a rank-and-file ballot if one were held. The ABC reports senior front-bencher Tony Burke shares Hayes’ displeasure at the development, although it also notes that others in the Right felt Hayes “had no right to try to act as a kingmaker or name his replacement publicly”.

In other Labor preselection news, Tom Richardson of InDaily reports the South Australian Senate vacancy created by the death of Alex Gallacher last week is likely to be filled by Karen Grogan, national political coordinator with the United Workers Union and convenor of the state branch’s Left faction. According to the report, a Senate seat was set to pass from Right to Left in the factional deals arising from the abolition of the federal seat of Port Adelaide at the 2019 election. Gallacher’s death may have had the effect of preserving Steve Georganas’s position in the seat of Adelaide, which might otherwise have been used to create the requisite vacancy by providing a refuge for Right-aligned Senator Marielle Smith.

Also from South Australia, the Australia Institute has published a Dynata poll of state voting intention, although it was conducted back in July from a modest sample of 599. It suggests Steven Marshall’s Liberal government might struggle at the March election, recording 38% support to 34% for Labor, 10% for the Greens, 5% for SA Best and 12% for the rest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,894 comments on “Crying Fowler”

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  6. Cud Chewer @ #1702 Sunday, September 12th, 2021 – 6:00 pm

    C@t

    It looks like there are a lot of micro targeting opportunities for Labor..

    I think they’re onto it. However, micro targeting was the advantage that the Coalition had over Labor in 2019. I don’t think Labor will let that happen again.

    You’d have to think that Anna P. and mark McGowan had some secret sauce that allowed them to win Regional seats in the Qld and WA state election. I’m sure they’d be happy to share.

  7. Diogs

    “ In NSW, doctors & nurses have been told by hospital managers that life-saving support may not be provided, or potentially even be withdrawn, for those with a median age of 72 during the “overwhelming” phase of the Delta outbreak – forecast for late Oct & early Nov”

    I don’t believe that for a second.

    1. No hospital manager would ever admit that even if it was true.

    WTF’s that’s supposed to mean?

  9. for those with a median age of 72

    What does that mean ? You have an age , you do not have a median age. If there is some ‘soylent green’ for those over a certain age then ‘median’ has nothing to do with it.

  10. Cud,

    This latest incursion is really close to home.

    Gosh the taxi driver gave it to us tho. Probably shouldn’t have joked that one of our party had just got out of jail – you know Silverwater, in Sydney?

  11. I fail to see how pre-selecting KK for a winnable Federal seat will matter. The only people whinging on PB don’t vote Labor any ways or have an antithetical factional alliance.

    I don’t see it as any more than a discussion issue.

    It won’t make any difference come the Election.

  16. “If you already don’t know, acvording to some News reports Morrison is in Sydney this weekend and will be here till next Wednesday.”

    Is he asking us to try the veal?

  19. Jo abrahams

    KK can twist, turn, dance, tweet, smile but Fowler electorate is saying goodbye to ALP…putting my money on how much KK will lose.. when KK said she is going to run in Fowler, she just lost 16% of the votes, when she say she believes in multicultural she just lost another 20% of the votes, when she is churning out motherhood statements she lost another 18% of the votes, she did not live in fowler, maybe another 7% loss. Chris Hayes takes years to build up the margin and KK take months to demolish it.

    While I have some thoughts on the topic I no longer want to share on here because I tire of unwarranted abuse, I just want to correct the above notion that Hayes turned the seat into a safe Labor seat and with him retiring, it’s a marginal or something like that. It’s a very safe Labor seat that has only elected Labor politicians. In fact, there has never been an election where the Labor candidate hasn’t won on primary votes alone.

    Even if there’s any backlash which hits the Labor vote in the seat, it probably won’t be enough to prevent it from being an easy win for Labor.

  21. Fowler will certainly be of interest come election night, either way.

    The whole issue reminds me of a time a decade or more ago when a new Melbourne newsreader led to literally hundreds of thousands of viewers changing channels in Melbourne’s West and North. Her crime: she had a bit of a plum in her mouth. The working class suburbs couldn’t understand her.

  22. Lurker

    Nah, really it won’t.

    If you want to make Melbourne comparisons, I point (again) to the Mar’n Ferguson preselection. Not only not a local, he was from out of state. Media frenzy. All sorts of threats and rumblings, couple of indies went very well running against him, but at the end of the day a 3% swing against him on 2PP…when there was a 5% swing against Labor nationally…

  24. Lol… the degree to which some are so desperate to make this more of a thing that it will be.

    You’d think some would have better things to do on a Sunday evening? Since I do have better things to do on a Sunday night than feed their egos (however misplaced)… just, lol.

  27. Is Morrison trawling through ads on Ebay or Gumtree offering pre-loved Covid vaccines for sale close to their use by date?

    Seriously, I’m thinking there must be some sort of marketplace for vaccines that countries want to dispose of.

    The 1 million doses – which add to the 10 million Moderna doses already on order – are being sent from Spain, Czech Republic, Portugal and Bulgaria, which all have surplus vaccines that need to be used before they expire…

    The doses from Bulgaria are notable given that the country is the poorest nation in the EU.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-12/one-million-moderna-vaccines-secured-from-eu-scott-morrison/100455502

  28. Diogenes:

    “ In NSW, doctors & nurses have been told by hospital managers that life-saving support may not be provided, or potentially even be withdrawn, for those with a median age of 72 during the “overwhelming” phase of the Delta outbreak – forecast for late Oct & early Nov”
    I don’t believe that for a second.
    1. No hospital manager would ever admit that even if it was true.
    2. No modelling shows it getting that bad.

    The quote does not make sense – how can a patient have a “median age” and hence qualify for a death panel?

    It’s not a statement issued by anyone with any sort of authority, but instead something made up, using terms like “median age” in an attempt to sound authoritative.

  29. Probably Zoomster, although… Fowler’s Vietnamese constituents might take it badly. And actually punish KK by voting Liberal? It’s a risk I wouldn’t be taking if I was Albo, I mean, he had to O.K this you would think.

  30. I could be sticking my neck out here but I just noticed an article in the Guardian where the Queen has congratulated a British teenager on winning the US Open. I don’t recall a similar congratulatory message when Ash Barty had a win. She is our Head of State after all, apparently.

  32. It’s a risk I wouldn’t be taking if I was Albo

    Preselecting her for a very safe Labor seat is the least riskiest option.

    The greater risk is nominating her for a marginal electorate which increases the likelihood she could be lost to parliament altogether.

  34. UK scraps vaccine passports for England:

    UK health secretary Sajid Javid has confirmed that plans for vaccine passports in England are going to be scrapped, speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show.

    He said:
    I think most people probably instinctively don’t like the idea, I mean I’ve never liked the idea, of saying to people, you must show your papers for what is an everyday activity.

    [We will] look at the evidence. What I can say is that we’ve looked at it properly and whilst we should keep it in reserve, as a potential option I’m pleased to say that we will not be going ahead with plans or vaccine passports.

    (Guardian updates at 18:50)

  35. When you turn to Canva to mock up a tile for socials. What could go wrong?

    Josh Frydenberg@JoshFrydenberg·
    Sep 11
    Today marks the 20th anniversary of the horrific and unforgettable events of September 11, 2001.

    We take the time to remember the thousands of innocent people who were tragically killed, and our thoughts are with the families who lost loved ones.

    #neverforget #911Anniversary

  36. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 7:11 pm

    The Vietnamese voters of Fowler have a deal more intelligence than any handle shuffler from Melbourne
    _________
    Would Tu Le have been the first ever Vietnamese member of Parliament? It’s a big ask of the Vietnamese population of Fowler to eat a shit sandwich and smile. Time will tell.

  37. Janine Perrett@PerrettReport·
    7h
    Good to see journos giving @GladysB a good grilling at her last official daily press conference. She claims she will decide when she will be accountable yet she winds up the presser early because of uncomfortable ICAC questions she is dodging. Accountable indeed

  38. DW just received an SMS from “YourRights”:

    Hi (first name), unfairly treated by police in Australia in the last 6 years? Claim now: (website URL) No scam
    STOP: (other URL)

    The domain name of the website appears to have been registered in Germany – which makes those organisers of the no lockdown/anti-vaxx protests prime suspects.

    Has anyone else received one of these?

  39. ‘Lurker’, you obviously fail to appreciate the white hot anger in Fowler, and the rest of the LGAs of concerns.

    The anger is directed in equal part to GladysB and Scott Morrison for the destruction of their livelihoods, their families and in some cases their lives.

  41. Lurker says:
    Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 7:26 pm
    sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 7:11 pm

    The Vietnamese voters of Fowler have a deal more intelligence than any handle shuffler from Melbourne
    _________
    Would Tu Le have been the first ever Vietnamese member of Parliament? It’s a big ask of the Vietnamese population of Fowler to eat a shit sandwich and smile. Time will tell.
    ___________
    One would think the smart play (given the mess created by Albo) would be to prevail on Tu Le to endorse Keneally with a quid pro quo of the State seat of Cabramatta in 18 months time.

  43. Lurker
    Fowler will only be talked about if KK is on a panel and they do a runaround of how panel members are going or when Antony does the call of the board and when KK was premier the ALP won the state seats in Fowler.

  44. Tu Le’s legal training and now expertise is international in her migration work – Mrs Shellbell has the pleasure of working with her – she is suited to federal politics.

  47. Any talk of Labor losing Fowler is ridiculous. But I would like to draw people’s attention to the fact that this is all because the factions back Deb O’Neill and Jenny McAllister for the two winnable positions on the NSW Labor ticket. This is over Kristina Keneally, who clearly is a far more effective politician, ranks much higher than them, and is a former NSW Premier. This isn’t a Tu Le vs KK narrative, this should be Tu Le and KI vs the factions narrative.

  49. William Bowe – if people call me names, a la steve davis , am I allowed to call them names back?

    Or is that privilege extended by you only to those of the Labor hack persuasion?

  50. If I was running the NSW Libs I would be getting a very good Vietnamese candidate to run against KK. But that’s just me.

    They can. It’d be pointless.

    If the Fowler business has any potential returns for the Liberals (I doubt it will) and I were a Liberal strategist, I’d exploit it as an example of “the faceless men” or “Labor being unable to govern itself” etc. and target that more broadly, rather than to an unwinnable safe Labor seat.

    But, honestly, even that would be waste of time. This has the hallmark of something that runs in the news cycle for a few days because it’s something different for journalists to write about, then quickly gets dusted up by the next political news story and forgotten by all but the most politically engaged by the time of the election.

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