Two fairly meaty items of attitudinal polling on COVID-19 today, starting with the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which also included its monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison’s ratings were hardly changed, with approval steady at 50% and disapproval up one to 41%, while Anthony Albanese’s were slightly improved, with approval up three to 37% and disapproval down two to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister nonetheless widened slightly, from 45-26 to 47-26. Offered a choice between the proposition that the government deserved to be re-elected and that it was “time to give someone else a go”, respondents favoured the latter over the former by 41% over 36%, which sits well with the tenor of recent voting intention polling.
On COVID-19 management, the federal government’s good rating was down two to 39% and its bad rating was up one to 36%. Of the state governments with almost meaningful sample sizes, the good rating of the New South Wales government was down two to 40%, that of the Victorian government tumbled 12 points to 44%, and the Queensland government was up a point to 67%. Of those with entirely inadequate sample sizes, the Western Australian government’s good rating was down nine to 78% and South Australia’s was up eight to 76%.
A series of questions on COVID-19 strategy produced the rather striking finding that 61% favoured the low-ball option of “less than 100 deaths per year” when asked how many would be “acceptable to ‘live with’ in Australia as lockdown restrictions are removed”. Furthermore, current lockdown restrictions remain strongly supported, with 56% in New South Wales and 57% in Victoria considering their states’ settings to be “about right”. However, the balance is tipping towards them being thought too strong, at 28% and 35% respectively, compared with too weak, at 16% and 8% respectively.
Another question found only 12% favoured Australia living with COVID-19 “even if there are hospitalisations and deaths”, compared with 44% apeice who favoured a near-zero policy and living with a few cases “even if there are hospitalisations and deaths”. There were notable differences between the lockdown states and the others: 38% in New South Wales and 37% in Victoria favoured a near-zero strategy, compared with 50% in Queensland, 51% in South Australia and 59% in Western Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
Also out today through the News Corp papers is a large-sample survey on COVID-19 conducted by YouGov, results from which can be viewed in The Australian here. This featured a number of questions on how things should be “when everyone has the opportunity to be fully vaccinated”, which 41% thought should mean an end to lockdowns, although a not inconsiderable 37% felt otherwise. Respondents from Western Australia were most pro-lockdown, those from New South Wales and Victoria least so. Younger respondents and parents of children in school were more likely to be pro-lockdown; those who did not wish to be vaccinated, accounting for 13% of the total sample, were most opposed.
The poll similarly found that 66% would eventually favour French-style vaccine passports for a range of public activities; 63% state borders being kept open only for the vaccinated; and 68% likewise with respect to overseas travel. Only 23% were opposed to the notion that employers should be able to demand their staff be vaccinated, compared with 69% who supported it for “frontline or public-facing jobs”, inclusive of 45% who thought it should be allowed across the board. Clear majorities were in favour of compulsory vaccinations for aged-care workers, nurses, school staff, public transport workers, take-away restaurant and food delivery workers, public servants and hospitality workers, and opinion was about evenly divided for construction workers and tradies.
Respondents were also given a choice between uncompromising anti-lockdown (“lockdowns should be ended immediately”) and pro-lockdown (“lockdowns must be part of Australia’s future until COVID-19 is completely eliminated”) positions and the much looser middle-ground option that “vaccination is the pathway to ending lockdowns”, which when you put it like that gets respective results of 14%, 22% and 64%. The survey was conducted by YouGov from August 20 to 25 from a sample of 3114.
On the Icecream story a voice of experience
@MrKRudd tweets
You know Murdoch is frightened when they run BS personal smears like this. They used to do it to me all the time, cooking them up in the Liberals’ dirt unit—if not in-house by Murdoch’s own folks. Why: they always prefer to attack your character than have a real debate on policy.
@OverlandJournal tweets
Overland condemns News Corps reporting on the first Aboriginal death from COVID-19. Aboriginal communities such as Dubbo, Wilcannia, Brewarrina and more are struggling with a lack of medical assistance and Murdoch media chose to dehumanise and demonise a Blak man. Shame.
@Riss_Bundjalung tweets
News Corp publishing the criminal record of the first Aboriginal person to die from COVID-19… Is just Murdoch’s way of letting the colony know, that this black life wasn’t worth anything… and the blacks who die after will all be worth nothing too
#blacklivesmatter
Does anyone remember which group did the very accurate modelling that accurately predicted the end to the VIC lockdown and if they have presented any modelling on the current Vic outbreak and the likely outcomes, cases, hospitalisation and deaths.
Would be interesting to compare to the model Morrison is using.
Ige tells visitors to stay away from Hawaii
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/08/23/breaking-news/ige-tells-visitors-to-stay-away-from-hawaii/
Another thought just popped into my head. scovid is apparently going too write to people over 60 who haven’t been vaccinated yet.
If people’s medical records are supposed to be strictly confidential, how does scovid know the people haven’t been vaccinated?
Just another example of this government keeping “confidential” information “confidential” until in their eyes it’s not.
Expat Follower @ Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 5:24 pm
You are factually incorrect. I did NOT refer to the 54-46 TTP result, let alone meet the condition of “the 54-46 data point you keep invoking”. I pointed to the net satisfaction ratings between Albanese and Morrison and halving the gap since the pandemic. Once. And once again today in commenting on your non-response.
Your gaslighting simply reinforces my feel-pinion of you being a bad actor.
EF
Expat Follower says:
Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 6:08 pm
Boerwar…. you go girl…. zzzzzzzzz
_____________________
I see that you are desperately deflecting from the most corrupt federal government since Federation. How pathetic is that?
Assantdj @ Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 6:15 pm
That would be the Burnet Institute crew.
@ama_media tweets
AMA President Dr Omar Khorshid earlier today held a doorstop media interview to speak about the AMA’s urgent call on all levels of government for public hospital reform if it is to cope with the looming health crisis if we are to live with COVID.
Dr Khorshid called on National Cabinet “to look at the capacity of our hospital system, not just ICU beds, but our whole hospital system, to make sure that once we open up, that we don’t see a disastrous reduction in the care available to Australians.”
“The reality in public hospitals right now is that they are always full, and there are ambulances parked outside, too many of them as we speak, simply because the hospitals don’t have the capacity to look after the healthcare needs of Australians. That’s before COVID.”
“They will have to turn their ICUs into COVID ICUs. And that means people not being able to access lifesaving cancer surgery, lifesaving heart surgery, because the ICUs will have very sick COVID patients to look after, patients who stay in the ICUs for weeks and weeks.”
Dr Khorshid asks National Cabinet “Is it right to open up at 70 or 80 percent if the hospitals are going to predictably fail within weeks, which will, of course, send us straight back into lockdowns, which would be extremely disappointing for all Australians?”
“We must plan for the future, and that means investing in the long term needs of our community, not just a Band-Aid to keep the public hospitals working during COVID.”
Transcript:
https://www.ama.com.au/media/dr-omar-khorshid-hospitals-and-opening-vaccinating-children-under-12-over-60s-and-mandatory
Perhaps someone like Christensen or Kelly would be interested in sampling the Covid eliminating elixir directly from the viper?
Redlands Mowerman says:
Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 5:58 pm
According to the data provided by the U.S. State Department in the last few days, the total number of people evacuated from the Kabul airport was 122,000. Of those, 6,000 were American citizens (AmCits), and 116,000 were Afghan refugees.
Today the State Department admits the “majority” of the qualified Afghan people who assisted the U.S. during operations in Afghanistan, Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) applicants, did not get evacuated. That admission begs the question: then who the heck are those 116,000 refugees?
———————-
I understand that between 250-300,000 Afghans assisted the US, and of those only around 116,000 were able to be evacuated by 31 August.
How to Gladys!
Gladys talks as if vaxx goals will lead to complete “freedom”, but masks and infection avoidance measures will still be needed. Hard to express how hopeless she is, encouraging the idea that all restraints will vanish.
Seen on the news..
Greg the lying Hunt saying “selectively misusing the Doherty modelling is an act of bad faith”.
Best laugh I’ve had all week 🙂
Iceland’s recent daily peak was 495.11 infections per million, or an equivalent to a daily infection peak of about 12,000 in Australia —BUT— only if Australia manages to get to the equivalent of ~94% of the ‘eligible population’ fully vaccinated and 100% of the ‘eligible population’ partially or fully vaccinated.
Basically Australia’s daily infection peak will be much much higher than 12,000 as we are only targeting 70% (56%) and/or 80% (64%) of the ‘eligible population’ and nothing like 94% (which is equivalent to the 75% of the total population of Iceland that is currently fully vaccinated).
Morrison and Gladys either have no idea what is coming, or they do and don’t care.
lizzie
And by doing this Gladys is also encouraging people to behave less defensively and ignore lockdown rules, thus pushing up R.
Cud Chewer
Exactly. All she cares about is her own image.
My local Shire has decided to withdraw from Aged Home Care because there will be no Federal funding, and they will have to compete with private operators for contracts. This is the end of local involvement in supportive services. Everything from now on will be in the hands of distant “agencies”.
Expat
“The point i keep making is that this will be overtaken by “shall we open up”, or “shall we issue vaccine passports with distinct privileges” issues, and the distinctions there will be far more determinative. Also that despite the mistakes, there is still a sizable amount of goodwill/approval of these governments ”
Which is why the utter incompetence and reckless indifference of Gladys allowing that limo driver to be infected needs to be hammered home. Just as “he only had two jobs” is sticking, this should with Gladys.
https://youtu.be/eBY1V2LubBE
C@t
That’s good, but I think Gladys shouldn’t escape.
Expat,
You may be ashamed to admit that you’re an LNP voter but we’ve got the message. You are a Scomo fan. He’s the pentacostal with a plan who is the smartest in the room. Say it out loud. You’ll feel better.
Are you really that stupid that you can’t see what is going happen when the these two psychopaths – your guy and Berejiklian – get their way and open up prematurely? Or are overwhelmed hospitals and deaths everywhere OK with you? They obviously are because hairy chested tough guys like you are always ready to take everything front on. A knife between your teeth and a vine to swing on. For your freedoms. Great. Do it. Get rid of the mask while you’re at it. You’re vaccinated so if you get it, it will just be a “little flu” until it isn’t a little flu at all and your not as tough as you thought you were. Good luck fighting your way past that massive queue of sick and dying people in the ambulance dock (already happening). Breathe your germs all over someone who isn’t as healthy as you. Never mind. They’re not as tough or as smart so it doesn’t matter if they get sick, can’t get into a hospital and die at home because Scotty’s career is far more important – again, already happening in NSW.
I’m not interested in discussing anything with you. I know everything I need to know about you and you sicken me.
[‘Vaccine rollout
NSW
38.7% fully vaccinated; 70.5% first dose
State target: 70%
National
36.4% fully vaccinated; 60.5% first dose
National target: 70%
Of the estimated population aged 16 and over
New locally acquired cases in NSW 1288
Reported Sep 2 (Updated 3.34pm)’ – SMH’]
@Reuters tweets
“Our Mikis has gone”: ‘Zorba the Greek’ composer Theodorakis dies at 96 reut.rs/3mQc5tM
@Pollytics tweets
Let’s cut through the shit.
1. Most of the Premiers agreed 18 months ago that the solution was to suppress Covid until vax/therapeutics to allow for a transition
2. Nothing has changed
3. The National Plan is words with holes in it trying to be filled out as we go.
And here we are, doing that very thing. NSW fell by the wayside and couldn’t do an orderly transition. Vic and ACT are trying to manage one. The other states can still attempt the optimal. Each will try what’s best for their own situation. No one gives a fuck about your holiday.
Correction
Australia is at 28% second dose. State and national targets of 70% (56% in reality) are dangerous nonsense.
And while we’re at it. Caught Channel 9 news earlier reading straight from Liberal press releases. Describing QLD and WA as “lagging way behind”. The reality?
NSW (38.7) 31.0%
VIC (36.0) 28.8%
QLD (32.9) 26.3%
WA (32.7) 26.1%
(fake figures are in parenthesis) real figures follow
So yeah, we now have proof that if you incompetently release a dangerous virus into the community, it changes the rate of vaccination by a few percent. Its not “lagging way behind”.
Theres still not enough vaccines in the country for everyone. FACT. No point pitching state against state. Morrison failed to deliver enough for everyone. Thats what needs to be attacked in the media.
“ Morrison and Gladys either have no idea what is coming, or they do and don’t care.”
Lock in B, Eddie.
Their plan is based on some calculations of exactly who they need to hang onto power, and who they don’t: their base in leafy suburbs (obviously), plus enough worker bees in the marginals. Aboriginals? Nope. Worker bees in rusted on Labor seats? Nope nope nope. Hi Vis ‘aspirationals’ in outer rim burbs and regional centres? well, that’s where we have the tipping point in their calculations.
If you support Scott Morrison, you support corruption. It’s as simple and as straightforward as that:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/pm-s-department-to-refuse-bid-to-access-car-park-scandal-documents/ar-AAO03jl
Cud Chewer says:
Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 7:13 pm
Could you post link to source of data.. Cheers
steve
Saw Kate Washington on NBN news earlier saying that there are people around here who can’t get their vaccine appointment until December.
There’s going to be a lot of people who experience loss and sickness in the community over the next few months who couldn’t get vaccinated for now fault of their own.
Who do you think they’re going to be angry at?
@Cat , but prepared to waste parliament time to table legislation to counter Rex Patrick’s success getting at National Cabinet documents
I see that the media is sticking it to Anastacia for “misrepresenting” the Doherty report.
But Scotty and Gladys did the same thing the other days, promising freedom at 70% no questions asked! No one in the media cared about that, but it is probably because they all support opening up ASAP regardless of what happens.
Don’t be surprised if the media will stop reporting on the health system under stress.
Just heard about the whole Viennetta business. What a weak, pedantic attack that’s reminiscent of the desperate attempts to smear Rudd back in 2007.
Riddle me this, fellow Bludgers: once we (by which I mean Sydney – the obvious centre of all things don’t you know) get to fake 70% double vaccinated and the first trance of Gladys’s freedoms are limited to the double vaccinated, what exactly would be the additional risk if such such freedoms were limited to:
1. Exercise outside the 5km radius;
2. travelling to and from employment (authorised workers only) without having to get a covid test every second day, or a travel permit (within Sydney);
3. Outdoor dining or drinking at suitable venues with 4sm social distancing protocols. Perhaps with live music as well; and
4. Visiting equally vaccinated family and friends (maximum of 5 visitors per day per household), or outdoor gatherings (maximum of 10 vaccinated people).
It seems to me, that at fake 70% such measures may not have much of a negative effect. Prove me wrong, guys.
Cud Chewer at 7.13pm
I decided to email a complaint to Channel 9 in the following terms…
Your tv news this evening described Queensland and Western Australia as ‘lagging way behind’ NSW in COVID19 vaccinations.
Note that NSW has 38.7% of those eligible fully vaccinated, QLD 32.9% and WA 32.7%, hardly major differences in percentage terms, especially as NSW has recently received special priority in vaccine allocations due to its record outbreak.
Your reportage was, at best, a distortion.
I call on you to publicly retract the phrase ‘lagging way behind.’
The email address is contact@9news.com.au
I encourage people to complain!
guytaursays:
Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 7:04 pm
@Reuters tweets
“Our Mikis has gone”: ‘Zorba the Greek’ composer Theodorakis dies at 96 reut.rs/3mQc5tM
——————————————————-
At the time of the movie I was part of a SLSC club junior competition team that had a several Greek members. Given the type of people Greek parents are, we all acquired another set of parents. The music of Mikis is part of my soul. The political events in Greece shortly after strengthened my love of the man.
I for one hope that Murdoch gutter press keep megaphoning Albo’s childhood ice cream memories all the way to the election.
Sceptic..
covid19data.com.au has good data (although the vaccine percentages are the official ones).
https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccines
This site does a good job of doing country by country comparisons and lists vaccination rates as actual percentages of population.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=NZL~AUS~SGP~MLT~PRT~URY~ARE~GBR~USA~DNK#what-share-of-the-population-has-been-partly-or-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19
This is also a go to site for graphs of infection and deaths. Plus its got a good comparison number – infections per 100k people per week.
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/malta/
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-kingdom/
Etc.. notice how in the UK with 62.9% vaccination rate, equivalent to a a Scomo “80%”, their Delta wave is still showing no signs of abating. (Plus if you take into account the high number of infections, their effective “vaccination” rate is more like 73%).
There is also this for a starting point reference of most-vaccinated countries.:
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/coronavirus-vaccination-rate
I can’t find a single country under 70% real vaccination rate that isn’t in deep shit (with the exception of places like China or New Zealand)
Leigh Sales is getting all headmistressary on Dan with her ‘lockdown , boo’ intro.
Could she reek of private school mum and pony club social committee honorary secretary anymore if she tried?
Prof Mary louise McCaw on the Project being interviewed about the attacks on the Qld premier by the usual suspects yesterday and today claiming she has abandoned the Doherty national plan over children.
The professor is adamant that we should not rely totally on one set of modelling and called for a range of modelling, combined with real life experience here and overseas to provide input to policy and planning.
Obviously that idea is unacceptable to Morrison as his politicised version of Doherty is inscribed on tablets of stone. However it is very clear that most premiers and chief ministers are increasingly prepared to confront Morrison.
Well known Melbourne publisher, Bruce Guthrie, tweets this..
‘Just had a robocall from local member Josh Frydenburg urging us to “stay on the line for a live chat”. Ah, no thanks. Dinner time. And election time? #Kooyong polling must be getting tight.’
“60 Minutes” is doing a job on Morrison’s financial
maladministration on Sunday:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxeqV5fv7to
I don’t personally watch free-to-air but I think this program has a wide reach.
Nickosays:
Thursday, September 2, 2021 at 7:23 pm
I see that the media is sticking it to Anastacia for “misrepresenting” the Doherty report.
——————————————-
More strength to the fuckwits arms. There reaction is exactly what Anastasia would have wanted.
No state politician has ever lost votes attacking a federal minister. Those nasty southerners attacking our Anastasia will not go down well in Queensland
CudCh, The other day you commented that ‘my’ Bateau Bay beach seemed ‘rocky’ from the Google Satellite image. Here is a picture of it today, in a strong nor-easter. As you can see, it is far from rocky. The rock platform extends, and continuing rocky shoreline extends for about 3.5 kms south from just to the right of the picture.
You really need to start a Landcare group, yabba. I can see a lot of weeds in that photo.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1091 Thursday, September 2nd, 2021 – 7:33 pm
I’m presuming she didn’t bring the same tone to her Gaslighter Gladys interview?
SMH sports writers showing that the vaccine roll-out has been less that satisfactory …
“But they’ve (CanberraRaiders) been about as reliable as the vaccine rollout this year; started with plenty of publicity, the wheels completely fell off in the middle months when the man calling the shots found it easier to be in England and then when all looked lost and it was a little late, they decided to get a wriggle on.”
Now the Headmistress is having a natter with fellow liberal in drag, Sally Capp. Peas in a pod.
Both are obvious of the obvious points that Dr Swan made in his piece.
Andrew Earlwood
“1. Exercise outside the 5km radius;
2. travelling to and from employment (authorised workers only) without having to get a covid test every second day, or a travel permit (within Sydney);
3. Outdoor dining or drinking at suitable venues with 4sm social distancing protocols. Perhaps with live music as well; and
4. Visiting equally vaccinated family and friends (maximum of 5 visitors per day per household), or outdoor gatherings (maximum of 10 vaccinated people).”
The whole point is to control how mobile people are, and how many people they interact with. Each of these pushes those numbers up fractionally. Without the distance limits, a lot of people quickly find more opportunity to meet, socialise with, and infect people at a distance. When you model covid you quickly find that the one that really helps the virus along is the intermediate distance links. I can’t give you the exact mobility numbers because like most things, they don’t tell us.
A lot of infections out of the worst affected areas would have been prevented by testing of workers that have to travel to work. This is a seriously retrograde step to ease up on this. What we should be doing instead is authorising and encouraging do-it-yourself testing (as Professor Blakely suggests).
Outdoor dining is the least risky change. However, too much alcohol encourages people to drop their social distancing – in a big way.
The problem with visiting friends/family at a distance, vaccinated or not is that it creates far more traffic and makes it harder to police distance based rules. Again, retrograde.
Now, here’s the problem. Each of these may only make a few percentage points difference, but with R hovering just above 1.0, small changes percentage wise make a huge difference to outcome. This is why a very hard lockdown at the beginning would have had a good chance.
Increasing vaccination has an effect on R.. but that can quickly be undone by behavioural changes. And then some.
Wish I had access to the all the data, but we live in land of state secrets.