Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll finds the Coalition lagging still further behind Labor on voting intention, despite a more mixed picture on leadership ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records Labor’s two-party preferred lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, with the Coalition taking a three-point tumble on the primary vote to 36%, Labor up a point to 40%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%. Despite this, Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and down two on disapproval to 47%, and has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 49-36 to 50-34. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 47%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1528.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,192 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. Coming into September when the liberal party changes their leaders

    Abbott , turnbull were replaced in September , when the lib/nats combined primary vote fell to 36% in newspoll

  4. C@tmomma @ #148 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 6:34 am

    An interesting (to me anyway), observation is that Scott Morrison’s play to WA last week, with the call into talk-back radio in order to paint Albanese as the guy who was stopping people coming out of their ‘caves’, appears to have backfired on Morrison and instead, Mark McGowan and Labor, turned the criticism back on Morrison and got people riled up at being called cave people. Well played, Labor. 🙂

    McGowan has outplayed Morrison from the beginning. People in WA will always have the premier’s back in a fight with the feds. Scotty should’ve known that by now.

  6. Thanks BK.

    I feel today’s Moir is too kind to Morrison. It suggests that the reason he’s having trouble with the states is the nature of the national cabinet, rather than what is the more likely reason: his inability to build functioning relationships with other parties, and his always having to bully others to his way of doing things.

  7. Re my comment about ‘soft’ votes, it actually is a pretty good primary for Labor. There has been a few 40, 41 against Morison, soon after he took over, but Labor didn’t get a primary of 40 against Turnbull.

  8. Just like the Republicans, the Liberals and Nationals are going to be using Covid as their next culture war fight.

    Opposition is growing within the federal Coalition against businesses mandating proof of vaccination for customer entry into cafes, restaurants and events as part of the plan to ease COVID-19 restrictions.

    Retiring Liberal MP Andrew Laming has joined the ranks of backbenchers to raise concerns about the scheme, which he said risks taking the decision-making process away from health experts and placing them in the hands of “virtue-signalling baristas”.

    In a national cabinet plan supported by federal cabinet, millions of vaccinated Australians will be able to use their mobile phones to gain exemptions to lockdown rules to enter cafes, restaurants and public events. The plan will use digital records to verify vaccine status.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-opposition-to-proof-of-vaccination-status-growing-20210829-p58mxo.html

  9. Confessions @ #144 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 6:13 am

    Voters in every federal seat in Australia support increased action on climate change and the adoption of renewable technology over the government’s plan for a gas-led recovery, according to the largest poll ever conducted on climate change and politics in the country.

    The survey of 15,000 Australians conducted by YouGov on behalf of the Australian Conservation Foundation found 67 per cent of voters believed the government should be doing more to address climate change, including a majority in all 151 national seats.

    It found support for increased climate action was similar across states and territories, with the highest being the Northern Territory where 71 per cent supported more action and the lowest being NSW, where 65 per cent wanted more. In Victoria 69 per cent wanted more or much more action.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-s-biggest-climate-poll-shows-support-for-action-in-every-seat-20210829-p58mwb.html

    ‘Voters in every federal seat in Australia support increased action on climate change ‘
    Even the one’s which will vote Liberal next time round.

  10. Looking more and more likely that Trudeau is cactus

    CBC Poll Tracker headline today: ‘Conservatives move further ahead as Liberals continue to slide’

    The tracker has the Tories a point ahead, an 8-point swing since the election was called. The tracker lags as it is an average, the Tories have been ahead in each of the last 9 polls conducted by between 1 and 10 points +3, +6, +1, +6, +6, +2, +8, +2, +10

    I wonder if there is any lockdown fatigue in there

    https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

  11. Victorian Liberal MP Russell Broadbent said he had received many “distressing calls” from constituents who were about to lose their jobs because they choose not to accept the vaccines available.

    “I feel powerless in the face of government or employer directives,” Mr Broadbent said.

    “This is wrong. This is not in keeping with the freedom I claim to stand for as an elected representative … where are the civil libertarians that have stood in solidarity with me in the past?”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-opposition-to-proof-of-vaccination-status-growing-20210829-p58mxo.html

    Is he opposed to childcare centres mandating that children are vaccinated before being able to enrol in the centre?

    And isn’t this the same as employers requiring other traits of their employees such as being able to pass a medical examination or not displaying obvious tattoos or piercings?

  12. It’s obvious what this week’s campaign is: ‘Freedumb’.

    Retiring Liberal MP Andrew Laming has joined the ranks of backbenchers to raise concerns about the scheme, which he said risks taking the decision-making process away from health experts and placing them in the hands of “virtue-signalling baristas”.

    And:

    “This is wrong. This is not in keeping with the freedom I claim to stand for as an elected representative … where are the civil libertarians that have stood in solidarity with me in the past?”

    They really do want to lose then because there was a poll out just last week that said the vast majority of people were happy to have ‘vaccine passports’. And for workers in Aged and Disability Care to have vaccines mandated for them, in order to protect their clients.

    Hmm, my job or the ‘freedom’ to kill my clients? I wonder what the Australian people think is more important?

  13. Oh hello, mundo. Still think my opinions are the ones that are easy to ignore? Got any of your ‘obvious’ predictions for us again today? 🙂

  15. A good tactic for Labor might be to align themselves strongly with introduction of a vaccine passport as a tool for ending lockdowns quickly and relatively safely. If there are going to be LNP libertarian types opposing vaccine passports, in a world coming soon where a very high percentage of voters are vaccinated and have had an absolute gutfull of lockdowns, you wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of a debate abut vaccine passports. The same goes with debate about mandatory vaccination of certain groups-I’d like to see Labor strongly supporting that too. Let’s see the LNP get wedged on a difficult issue for a change.

  17. Don’t think there’s been much of a media campaign against Albo. Which suggests that, at least atm, he’s not seen as threat. (Given the present media’s acumen, that doesn’t mean he isn’t).

  22. mundo says:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 7:41 am
    Penny Wong all but confirms the story about Scotty and Mum and child on the plane story from the weekend.

    ————————————

    Means very little when his incompetence of not getting the vaccine and quarantine in order, is ruining Australians lives

  23. Scott @ #172 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 7:43 am

    mundo says:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 7:41 am
    Penny Wong all but confirms the story about Scotty and Mum and child on the plane story from the weekend.

    ————————————

    Means very little when his incompetence of not getting the vaccine and quarantine in order, is ruining Australians lives

    It was an odd exchange really, Rowland sounded pretty skeptical almost inviting Wong to have a go. Perhaps she smelled a rat…..

  24. mundo @ #31 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 7:42 am

    zoomster @ #167 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 7:28 am

    Don’t think there’s been much of a media campaign against Albo. Which suggests that, at least atm, he’s not seen as threat. (Given the present media’s acumen, that doesn’t mean he isn’t).

    ‘he’s not seen as threat’…especially by Scotty.

    It takes chutzpah to still be boosting for Scott Morrison here today. But that’s mundo all over. No one believes his stuff like he does.

  25. Morrison and his cronies have always been in the camp of Economy over Health

    Morrison and his cronies have always been in the camp of live with the virus , if there are deaths and serious illness bad luck

    Morrison and his cronies have always been in the camp of incompetence

  26. Also via the ACF last year, seems Labor and Libs are equally moribund when it comes to genuine action on climate, and both are in the pockets of their donors
    Not that any evidence is of much use around here, and anyone who knows anything about auspol knows the same rorts and donations will be hidden away until well after the next election
    Don’t hold your breath waiting for either Labor or Libs to reform donations rorts

    Fossil-fuel industry doubles donations to major parties in four years, report shows
    Coal, oil and gas companies trying to ‘buy political power’, says Australian Conservation Foundation
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/fossil-fuel-industry-doubles-donations-to-major-parties-in-four-years-report-shows

    Labor and the Coalition took roughly the same amount from the industry over the four years, other than 2017-18 when donations to the Coalition far outstripped Labor. Donations to the Coalition were only slightly higher than to Labor during the 2018-19 election year.

    Fossil-fuel money has also been pumped into associated entities, groups that are aligned to the major parties.

    The Minerals Council of Australia gave money to Liberal and Nationals-aligned entities such as the Australian Business Network, Enterprise Victoria, John McEwen House and Platinum Circle, and Labor entities such as Progressive Business, the federal Labor business forum, federal Labor business exchange, and the Hunter federal campaign.

    Jolene Elberth, a campaigner with ACF, said the report showed the sector was attempting to “buy political power” through donations.

    “As more Australians demand action on climate change and the pressure builds on politicians to take the problem seriously, the fossil-fuel industry is doubling down by spending more money to influence public policy,” she said.

    It is impossible to tell whether the donations declared by both parties represent the true extent of fossil-fuel political financing. Australia’s electoral laws require donations to be declared only if they are above $14,000. Donations can be split into multiple payments below $14,000 and still remain hidden, even if they total more than the threshold.

  27. mundo at 7:43 am

    Wong laying it out now….’if you want action on climate change, you have to change the government’

    Australians are very keen to do something about climate change just so long as they personally do not have to actually do anything. So not sure how big a ‘winner’ that is.

  28. It looks like Joe Biden is a man of his word:

    The US says a drone has “eliminated” suspected Islamic State suicide bombers who planned another attack on the airport in Afghanistan’s capital.

    … Following the strike, a US official said secondary explosions showed the target had been carrying a “substantial amount of explosive material”.

    Witnesses reported an explosion near the airport and television footage showed black smoke rising into the sky.

    Two witnesses said the blast appeared to have been caused by a rocket that struck a house in an area to the northern side of the airport.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2021/08/30/america-drone-strike-kabul-bombers/

  29. ”
    Ray (UK)says:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 6:51 am
    Looking more and more likely that Trudeau is cactus

    CBC Poll Tracker headline today: ‘Conservatives move further ahead as Liberals continue to slide’

    The tracker has the Tories a point ahead, an 8-point swing since the election was called. The tracker lags as it is an average, the Tories have been ahead in each of the last 9 polls conducted by between 1 and 10 points +3, +6, +1, +6, +6, +2, +8, +2, +10

    I wonder if there is any lockdown fatigue in there

    https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
    ”

    Trudeau is a show pony.
    Trudeau wanted to be and imagined himself in the mold of Tony Blair but behaved more like Kevin Rudd.

  30. “Yep. By March things will be different.
    We may even be at the booster stage of vaccination.”

    Many, many Victorians will not forget how the Feds treated us in 2020 and into much of 2021. That rage simmers on.

    The election will be lost for Morrison in Victoria alone.

  31. To parse the Daily ToiletPaper front page today

    What it shows
    – Murdoch’s Jihad against his ABC rival, ahead of a more damning part2 of 4Corners tonight
    – a grudging side bar, if you squint, saying record case numbers in NSW
    – at the bottom, Clive Palmer’s yellow, for now still both siding

    What I’d doesn’t show
    – the dreadful Newspoll for the Liberals
    – no dopey cartoon of Albo, unlike last election where Bill Shorten as a zombie was regular fare

    Mind you, with sit down coffee shops closed, the ToiletPaper’s free readership would have plummeted –

  32. ”
    Parramatta Moderatesays:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 7:18 am
    A good tactic for Labor might be to align themselves strongly with introduction of a vaccine passport as a tool for ending lockdowns quickly and relatively safely. If there are going to be LNP libertarian types opposing vaccine passports, in a world coming soon where a very high percentage of voters are vaccinated and have had an absolute gutfull of lockdowns, you wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of a debate abut vaccine passports. The same goes with debate about mandatory vaccination of certain groups-I’d like to see Labor strongly supporting that too. Let’s see the LNP get wedged on a difficult issue for a change.
    ”

    This is where Gladys strategy of vaccinating overwhelming majority of people while keeping them in lockdown for months is working against LNP. The strategy to open up the place works well after mass vaccination if there is vaccine passport. Also, it is not that difficult to implement by having people to monitor it at the gates of mass gathering because people either can carry that passport as paper or on phone.

  33. mundosays:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 7:43 am
    Wong laying it out now….’if you want action on climate change, you have to change the government’
    ________________
    A bit rich considering she was front and centre when the Rudd govt walked away from it.

  35. Ven
    It will be incumbent upon government(s) to provide a secure, easily accessed app as a form of proof of vaccination. Should be a snip, given the resounding success of COVIDSafe.

  36. Not a word from the MSM about a leadership spill.
    Interesting, if it were Labor, Turnbull, Gilllard, Shorten or Abbott the beating of the drums would be thick in the air.
    The LNP are still convinced that the marketing guru, having swollowed a political air compressor and with the help of the Palmer millions, will ride out Covid, climate change, coal and a recession to deliver back to back grand finals.
    The pandemic is not hurting the rich, other than for a few trifling inconveniences and the rich are confident that Morrison will not have another anecdotal maccas moment and deliver.
    It remains all win/win for Morrison.
    The hapless Frydenberg, already settled into the lodge may yet be asked to perform some political food testing before given the keys to face the political Armageddon, adorned with the captains armband.
    As Coorey, the LNP gofer is apt to say, what other choice did he have?

  37. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 7:48 am
    mundo @ #31 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 7:42 am

    zoomster @ #167 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 7:28 am

    Don’t think there’s been much of a media campaign against Albo. Which suggests that, at least atm, he’s not seen as threat. (Given the present media’s acumen, that doesn’t mean he isn’t).

    ‘he’s not seen as threat’…especially by Scotty.

    It takes chutzpah to still be boosting for Scott Morrison here today. But that’s mundo all over. No one believes his stuff like he does.
    ”

    I understand from where Mundo is coming from. People like Mundo (and there are many of them) are scarred by 2019 federal result and have lost faith in Australian people. So he has every right to not believe it till it happens. I think his heart is in the right place. Even I will believe it only when ALP wins and not before.

  38. Parramatta Moderate @ #167 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 7:18 am

    A good tactic for Labor might be to align themselves strongly with introduction of a vaccine passport as a tool for ending lockdowns quickly and relatively safely. If there are going to be LNP libertarian types opposing vaccine passports, in a world coming soon where a very high percentage of voters are vaccinated and have had an absolute gutfull of lockdowns, you wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of a debate abut vaccine passports. The same goes with debate about mandatory vaccination of certain groups-I’d like to see Labor strongly supporting that too. Let’s see the LNP get wedged on a difficult issue for a change.

    Bullshit. You Libspivs are desperate to shift the focus away from your failures. I’m with the Westmead Respiratory Physician calling what is going on in Western Sydney as the privilege war that it is. Get back to us when the war is over…
    …

  39. Joshy after getting sand kicked in his face by the States tries to get his big mates to help. Won’t work in WA the 800lb gorillas are resource companies and they have been doing very nicely. Hence State budget surplus of $5 billion this year.

    Josh Frydenberg says business and industry chiefs must pressure states and territories to stick to the national cabinet’s reopening plan.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-time-for-business-to-make-its-move-says-frydenberg/news-story/60a5eb74fc764779f97547bb52d3f788

  40. ”
    porotisays:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 7:51 am
    mundo at 7:43 am

    Wong laying it out now….’if you want action on climate change, you have to change the government’

    Australians are very keen to do something about climate change just so long as they personally do not have to actually do anything. So not sure how big a ‘winner’ that is.
    ”

    It is like building Nuclear power plant. They support it as long as it is not built behind their backyard. Majority Australians truly do not understand the cost of Climate Change. That is why they are swayed by LNP scare campaign.

  41. Was expecting Newspoll to drift back, within the MOE, to Liberals. Instead, it’s set a high water mark for this term. It’s hard to reconcile with Resolve Strategic view that punters are now backing incumbents and Morrison and Andrews’ positions were back to around the last election levels.

    Morrison painting himself as the leader to get us out of the Cave is potentially his last roll of the dice. If we start opening up by early next year and health systems aren’t overwhelmed then I can see Morrison aggressively taking credit and characterising Labor as lacking leadership by resisting. In that scenario, I think the election will be hard-fought and close.

  42. Vensays:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 7:57 am

    Trudeau is a show pony.
    Trudeau wanted to be and imagined himself in the mold of Tony Blair but behaved more like Kevin Rudd.
    ________________
    You are right on the show pony stuff.
    I followed that trip to India he made a few years back.
    The Indians virtually marched him to the airport and told him to get the fuck out of our country.

  43. Taylormade @ #45 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 8:14 am

    mundosays:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 7:43 am
    Wong laying it out now….’if you want action on climate change, you have to change the government’
    ________________
    A bit rich considering she was front and centre when the Rudd govt walked away from it.

    Or you could go back to when she negotiated in good faith with Ian Macfarlane and after Nick Minchin and Tony Abbott rolled Malcolm Turnbull they made Macfarlane walk away from negotiations.

  44. Ven @ #179 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 8:19 am

    ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 7:48 am
    mundo @ #31 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 7:42 am

    zoomster @ #167 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 7:28 am

    Don’t think there’s been much of a media campaign against Albo. Which suggests that, at least atm, he’s not seen as threat. (Given the present media’s acumen, that doesn’t mean he isn’t).

    ‘he’s not seen as threat’…especially by Scotty.

    It takes chutzpah to still be boosting for Scott Morrison here today. But that’s mundo all over. No one believes his stuff like he does.
    ”

    I understand from where Mundo is coming from. People like Mundo (and there are many of them) are scarred by 2019 federal result and have lost faith in Australian people. So he has every right to not believe it till it happens. I think his heart is in the right place. Even I will believe it only when ALP wins and not before.

    Thanks Mum 🙂

  46. Goll @ #178 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 8:18 am

    Not a word from the MSM about a leadership spill.
    Interesting, if it were Labor, Turnbull, Gilllard, Shorten or Abbott the beating of the drums would be thick in the air.
    The LNP are still convinced that the marketing guru, having swollowed a political air compressor and with the help of the Palmer millions, will ride out Covid, climate change, coal and a recession to deliver back to back grand finals.
    The pandemic is not hurting the rich, other than for a few trifling inconveniences and the rich are confident that Morrison will not have another anecdotal maccas moment and deliver.
    It remains all win/win for Morrison.
    The hapless Frydenberg, already settled into the lodge may yet be asked to perform some political food testing before given the keys to face the political Armageddon, adorned with the captains armband.
    As Coorey, the LNP gofer is apt to say, what other choice did he have?

    ‘The LNP are still convinced that the marketing guru, having swollowed a political air compressor and with the help of the Palmer millions, will ride out Covid, climate change, coal and a recession to deliver back to back grand finals.’

    And this of course, this is the media’s preferred narrative which it will push hard.

  47. ”
    rhwombatsays:
    Monday, August 30, 2021 at 8:20 am
    Parramatta Moderate @ #167 Monday, August 30th, 2021 – 7:18 am

    A good tactic for Labor might be to align themselves strongly with introduction of a vaccine passport as a tool for ending lockdowns quickly and relatively safely. If there are going to be LNP libertarian types opposing vaccine passports, in a world coming soon where a very high percentage of voters are vaccinated and have had an absolute gutfull of lockdowns, you wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of a debate abut vaccine passports. The same goes with debate about mandatory vaccination of certain groups-I’d like to see Labor strongly supporting that too. Let’s see the LNP get wedged on a difficult issue for a change.

    Bullshit. You Libspivs are desperate to shift the focus away from your failures. I’m with the Westmead Respiratory Physician calling what is going on in Western Sydney as the privilege war that it is. Get back to us when the war is over…
    …
    ”

    WTBH. Are you commenting for right post because it doesn’t make any sense?

  50. Re Scott @6:41 AM.

    How on earth can the 2pp only move up 1% when

    The Lib/nats declined 3 % in the primary vote

    Labor gain 1 %

    Looking at the numbers:
    – Labor + Green: no change —> 50
    – Coalition + One Nation: down 3 —> 40

    The 3% went from the main right-wing parties to “someone else”. Assuming that the movement is real, I’d say it’s soft and will return to the Coalition.

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